US Presidential Primaries, 2008

Who will be the eventual nominee from each party?

Poll closed Feb 1, 2008.
  1. Dem = Clinton

    25.0%
  2. Dem = Obama

    64.7%
  3. Dem = Edwards

    8.8%
  4. Dem = Other

    5.9%
  5. Rep = Giuliani

    11.8%
  6. Rep = Romney

    17.6%
  7. Rep = Huckabee

    26.5%
  8. Rep = McCain

    23.5%
  9. Rep = Thompson

    5.9%
  10. Rep = Other

    8.8%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    This thread is intended to track the Democratic and Republican Primary results as they come out, but more importantly, for participants to make their predictions before each of the primaries. The main poll above lets you pick more than one option and is about the eventual nominee from each party. Choose one Democratic nominee and one Republican. The poll closes just before Super Tuesday, so there's no hurry to decide right away.

    The Iowa Caucus is about a day away from us. Obama, Clinton and Edwards are essentially neck to neck in the Democrats' race. The Des Moines Register opinion poll gave Obama a biggish lead, but most other recent polls have Clinton a few points ahead of Obama. Edwards has been a close third in nearly every poll conducted this last month or so. Among the Republicans, Huckabee's meteoric rise has suddenly flat-lined over this last week or so (may have something to do with the attack ad against Romney) and he is currently in a statistical tie with Romney.

    So today we accept predictions for Iowa:

    Democrats
    1.
    2.
    3.

    Republicans
    1.
    2.
    3.
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    My picks for Iowa:

    Democrats
    1. Obama
    2. Clinton
    3. Edwards

    Republicans
    1. Huckabee
    2. Romney
    3. McCain
     
  4. Why is Ron Paul left out?
     
  5. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
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    He isn't the only one. I've left out all the people that are currently polling below 5% in nationwide polls (I am limited to a maximum of 10 poll choices). Of course, for the individual Primaries/Caucuses, you are free to pick names that are not in the main poll.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2008
  6. Agreed.
     
  7. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
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    For fun, I'm going to make this a competition. You get 2 points for every fully correct prediction, and 1 point for every correct name that is in your top 3, but in the wrong position. The highest possible score for any given Pimary/Caucus is thus 12.
     
  8. Its a toss up :tongue2:

    Edit: Oops. Can someone undo my voting? Did not mean to select every one!
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2008
  9. BobG

    BobG 2,333
    Science Advisor
    Homework Helper

    For Iowa:

    The biggest surprise will be Ron Paul beating Rudy Giuliani in Iowa. He might even beat Thompson out for fourth. Paul provides some entertainment in that he sets the humiliation threshold.

    The best surprise would be Dodds or Biden getting a top three finish, but I don't think either will happen.

    Democrats
    1. Obama
    2. Clinton
    3. Edwards

    Republicans
    1. Huckabee
    2. Romney
    3. McCain

    Overall:

    I'm glad we can wait until after the first few caucuses/primaries. Clinton's a shoo-in, but the Republican nomination's going to get real interesting.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2008
  10. BobG

    BobG 2,333
    Science Advisor
    Homework Helper

    Are you originally from Florida?
     
  11. Astronuc

    Staff: Mentor

    I think Cyrus is just being very democratic, or he's planning to vote for everyone in every state. :rofl:

    I think Huckabee and Romney will be very close in Iowa, but I suspect they'll go with someone from close by - i.e. Huckabee, but I think Romney is stronger nationally. Someone made an interesting comment this morning that Giuliani is sitting out Iowa, which may lose him points nationally.

    On the Democratic side, I think Clinton, Obama, Edwards but Obama and Clinton will be relatively close. Someone commented this morning that Richardson is in this to be VP, but it's hard to tell at this point. I think 28 states will hold caucuses or primaries by the end of Feb, so we should know by then the sentiments of the nation.


    Romney criticized Huckabee over a critical remark about Bush. Huckabee indicated that he had not read the NIE, asking why should he be expected to read in 4 hrs when Bush hadn't read it in 4 years.
     
  12. Ron Paul
     
  13. Evo

    Staff: Mentor

    Who do you want to vote for?
     
  14. Please, call me chad. I hate to keep hanging around like this though.
     
  15. Evo

    Staff: Mentor

    :bugeye:
     
  16. Read what Bob wrote, it was a bad joke.
     
  17. Evo

    Staff: Mentor

    For a moment I thought someone else had taken control of your computer.
     
  18. Gokul43201

    Gokul43201 11,141
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    I would actually be a little surprised if Guiliani beats Paul. I don't think Paul will beat Thompson though. But I do expect Thompson will end up pretty close to McCain (maybe even beat him to third place).

    Iowa is tomorrow people! We've only got 3 correctly formatted predictions, and they're all the same! :frown:
     
  19. turbo

    turbo 7,365
    Gold Member

    No neo-con wants Huckabee and the Republicans are absolutely shocked that the religious base that they claim to love has pushed him to a position of prominence. Neither Clinton nor Obama can win enough votes in the south to claim the general election. Hopefully, Iowans will weigh this and back Edwards, so there is some chance for change in DC. I still will have to hold my nose before I vote for ANY of these candidates.
     
  20. My dad was watching the news on tv downstairs today when I walked by. They were asking the candidates what they over induldge in, and the majority of them gave a real PC, BS answer. "I eat too much chocolate."

    At least thomson said he sometimes smokes cuban cigars, and one other guy said too much wine.

    But seriously, chocolate? Give me something real, like too much booze, too much women, senate pages. Obama said sneaking an occasional cigarette (good answer). Everyone who said chocolate was full of **** in my opinion.

    It was hillary and a couple other dopes who said chocolate.

    I really dont care for any of the candidates. They all give 'safe' answers and come off as full of stinkin you know what. At least Ron Paul is entertaining, that guy just says whateverrrrrrrr he wants, I love it! Its clear hes nuts, he just doesnt cover it up like everyone else.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2008
  21. What did Richardson say he over-indulged in?
     
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