News US Presidential Primaries, 2008

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gokul43201
  • Start date Start date
AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on tracking the Democratic and Republican primary results while participants make predictions leading up to the Iowa Caucus. The Democratic race is tight among Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, with polls showing fluctuating leads. Among Republicans, Huckabee's rise has stalled, resulting in a statistical tie with Romney. Participants are encouraged to predict outcomes for both parties, with a scoring system for correct predictions. The conversation also touches on the candidates' public personas, with some expressing dissatisfaction with their responses to personal indulgences, and highlighting the potential impact of independent voters on the Democratic side. As the Iowa Caucus approaches, predictions are made, with many favoring Obama for the Democrats and Huckabee for the Republicans. The discussion reflects a mix of excitement and skepticism about the candidates and the electoral process, emphasizing the importance of upcoming primaries in shaping the nomination landscape.

Who will be the eventual nominee from each party?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
  • #101
Clinton won. :cry:
 
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #102
As an Independent, I will absolutely NOT vote for Hillary. The candidate that sways the independent vote in this election will win. 43% of independents in NH voted for Obama compared to only 31% for Hillary (that voted Dem), Independents simply don't like Hillary. I'd much rather vote for a moderate Republican that isn't a religious psychopath like McCain.

Hillary is not an electable candidate and will get thrashed if she ever makes it to the Presidential election.
 
  • #103
Ivan Seeking said:
Clinton won. :cry:
Well, not by much. At 94% of precincts in, Clinton has 39% vs Obama at 37%, and both apparently get the same number of delegates (to the national convention I guess). It's a small win for Clinton, and she didn't end up third. I wonder if her campaign or the media will trumpet this as a comeback like Bill. I hope not.

Romney is a strong second to McCain.

Interestingly, tonight I heard Gov. Spitzer (NY) pushing for Clinton (of course, not surprise there), and Gov. Duval Patrick (MA) was favoring Obama.

California, Texas and Florida will be interesting for both parties, and so will Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Lots of electoral votes in those states.
 
  • #104
New Hampshire Results:
Dem:
1. Clinton 39%
2. Obama 37%
3. Edwards 17%

Rep:
1. McCain 37%
2. Romney 32%
3. Huckabee 11%

Points Table:
Code:
               NH        Total
Gokul          10         21
Ivan           10         21
BobG           8          20
Astronuc       6          19 
Evo            10         19  
Coin           8          15
Art            8          8
Maxwell                   8

Next up: Michigan Primary (Jan 15)
 
  • #105
Astronuc said:
I wonder if her campaign or the media will trumpet this as a comeback like Bill. I hope not.
It's all they've been doing!
 
  • #106
A 2% victory in her "firewall state" is hardly a major comeback; esp given that Obama came from 20 points behind! :rolleyes:
 
  • #107
wow wow wow

Can someone please tell me how 44% of voters who disapprove of the Iraq war voted for McCain?!

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHREP"

This is the same guy who said "make it 100!" (years in iraq) days before.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFknKVjuyNk"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUE-QmH-n4Q"

unbelievable

I don't think McCain is that credible with the war... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06hR2EGpl4o&feature=related"

how can something like this happen?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #108
Astronuc said:
It's a small win for Clinton, and she didn't end up third. I wonder if her campaign or the media will trumpet this as a comeback like Bill. I hope not.

MSNBC was calling it one of the most electrifying moments or victories in American political history and made it sound as if Hillary was the one who had come back from a 15 point deficit, instead of the other way around. I know many of the polls had predicted a huge Obama win, but those likely flawed vs an actual 15 point comeback in 48 hrs. But that's the spin.
 
  • #109
Bush Bush Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Clinton?

(who knows Jeb Bush in 2103?)

I thought "anyone" could become President.


LOL

Everything controlled by the few elite as usual. When will Americans open their eyes?
 
  • #110
Giuliani finally beat Ron Paul!

Michigan
Republican:

1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee

Democratic:

1. Uncommitted
2. Clinton
3. Kucinich

Or can we pick uncommitted as an option? It's one of the choices on the ballot.
 
Last edited:
  • #111
Michigan
Democratic:

1. Obama (a neighbor)
2. Clinton (more likely than Edwards?)
3. Edwards (progressive)

I'll get back later on the Republicans.
 
  • #112
falc39 said:
wow wow wow

Can someone please tell me how 44% of voters who disapprove of the Iraq war voted for McCain?!

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHREP"

This is the same guy who said "make it 100!" (years in iraq) days before.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFknKVjuyNk"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUE-QmH-n4Q"

unbelievable

I don't think McCain is that credible with the war... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06hR2EGpl4o&feature=related"

how can something like this happen?

Among Republicans, only Ron Paul has been more outspoken against the way Bush has handled Iraq. None the less, all of the candidates, including Democrats, have given very unrealistic plans for Iraq. If you have to read between the lines hoping a particular candidate really means their concern has shifted to the Middle East as a whole rather than being limited to Iraq, then you have a problem.

Still, I think the biggest reservation I have against any Republican candidate (other than Paul) is their endorsement of pre-emptive war as a realistic option for foreign policy.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #113
Astronuc said:
Michigan
Democratic:

1. Obama (a neighbor)
2. Clinton (more likely than Edwards?)
3. Edwards (progressive)

I'll get back later on the Republicans.

Ha! This game is more fun the nerd sniping! :smile:
 
  • #114
BobG said:
Among Republicans, only Ron Paul has been more outspoken against the way Bush has handled Iraq. ...
I think that's backwards. Rep Paul has been outspoken on getting to Iraq in the first place but has not been out front on the way the war was managed. Indeed, he differentiated himself from the other candidates by drawing attention to the fact that they may have initially supported the invasion but were now trying to redeem themselves by saying the flaw was in the way the war was managed.
 
  • #115
BobG said:
Ha! This game is more fun the nerd sniping! :smile:

I'm tyring to get a handle on the R/Ind in Michigan. I was hoping to find some summary on the % of R and Ind in MI. Anybody know of one?

McCain will do well in parts, as Romney and Huckabee will do well in others. I just don't know how to read the mid-west at the moment.
 
  • #116
mheslep said:
I think that's backwards. Rep Paul has been outspoken on getting to Iraq in the first place but has not been out front on the way the war was managed. Indeed, he differentiated himself from the other candidates by drawing attention to the fact that they may have initially supported the invasion but were now trying to redeem themselves by saying the flaw was in the way the war was managed.

You're right. That's an important distinction. That's what I meant about being uncomfortable with most of the Republican candidates endorsing the idea of pre-emptive wars.
 
  • #117
Astro, BobG: You folks like to make your picks early, dontcha? What's the tearing hurry?

falc39 said:
Can someone please tell me how 44% of voters who disapprove of the Iraq war voted for McCain?!

This is the same guy who said "make it 100!" (years in iraq) days before.

unbelievable

I don't think McCain is that credible with the war...

how can something like this happen?
Amongst all candidates, I think McCain is probably (one of) the most credible on the war. Most of the people that disagree with him on the war issue might nevertheless admit that he (McCain) knows an awful lot more about the situation and what's the best way to deal with it than any of them can possibly hope to in their positions.
 
  • #118
Gokul43201 said:
Astro, BobG: You folks like to make your picks early, dontcha? What's the tearing hurry?
Tearing is in fashion now. Getting in touch with your feminine side is an advantage in the primaries.

Or did you mean tearing?
 
  • #119
gravenewworld said:
I'd much rather vote for a moderate Republican that isn't a religious psychopath like McCain.
You need to look in a different country then. McCain is the only Republican candidate that supports embryonic stem cell research funded federally, and he belongs to what is arguably the most liberal and progressive church in the country (the Episcopal Church).
 
  • #120
denverdoc said:
MSNBC was calling it one of the most electrifying moments or victories in American political history and made it sound as if Hillary was the one who had come back from a 15 point deficit, instead of the other way around. I know many of the polls had predicted a huge Obama win, but those likely flawed vs an actual 15 point comeback in 48 hrs. But that's the spin.
Gosh! Darn! Makes me wish I was a pollster or political correspondent for a major media organization - NOT! :biggrin:

Electrifying my @$$. :rolleyes: :zzz:
 
  • #121
Gokul43201 said:
Astro, BobG: You folks like to make your picks early, dontcha? What's the tearing hurry?
Why wait?

After Michigan, then Nevada and South Carolina. It will be interesting to see how Obama does down south.
 
  • #122
Gokul43201 said:
You need to look in a different country then. McCain is the only Republican candidate that supports embryonic stem cell research funded federally, and he belongs to what is arguably the most liberal and progressive church in the country (the Episcopal Church).




1.) McCain is Baptist. McCain has always kept religion to himself which I respect.

2.) I have no problem voting for a moderate Republican since Congress is controlled by the Democrats. I WILL NOT, like a lot of my other fellow Independents, vote for Hillary.
 
  • #123
Astronuc said:
Why wait?

Because we all know how valuable the pre-election polls are? :biggrin:
 
  • #124
Astronuc said:
Michigan
Democratic:

1. Obama (a neighbor)
2. Clinton (more likely than Edwards?)
3. Edwards (progressive)

I'll get back later on the Republicans.
Candidates need to focus on jobs & health care (insurance), retirement & SS, education, and how to get out of Iraq.

Michigan
Republican:
1. Romney (grew up in MI, father 3-time governor)
2. McCain (appeals to workers and middle class)
3. Huckabee (appeals more than the rest)

Nevada:
Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards (I thought I would make it interesting, but Richardson just dropped out)

Republicans:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee


South Carolina
Democratic:
1. Obama (doing well there)
2. Edwards (homey)
3. Clinton (south will be tough for her)

Republican:
1. Huckabee (appeals to southern evangelicals)
2. McCain (been there, done that)
3. Romney (may not appeal to evangelicals)

AP: Richardson Ends Presidential Bid
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17836744
Should've had an Oprahesque moment.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #125
Don't look now - but NY Mayor Bloomberg Weighs 2008 Run
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17900949


Clinton, McCain Look Ahead to Next Round
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17952255

The woman who asked the question to which Hillary responded with a teary moment voted for Barak Obama. For other women, it was enough for them to decide to vote for the kinder, gentler Hillary, who has been seen as rather stoic up till now.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #126
I either heard Bloomberg say, or heard it reported that he said that he wouldn't run if Obama is the dem candidate.
 
  • #127
It's hard to say what Bloomberg's up to. He certainly gets noticed in the press. He's an independent, more or less. I think he was Dem the switchted to Rep, now pretty much considers himself an independent.

It's interesting that he would compete against Hillary. Gov. Elliot Spitzer is pushing hard for her. He needs to spend his energy on administering the business of the state. :rolleyes:
 
  • #128
Astronuc said:
It's hard to say what Bloomberg's up to. He certainly gets noticed in the press. He's an independent, more or less. I think he was Dem the switchted to Rep, now pretty much considers himself an independent.

It's interesting that he would compete against Hillary. Gov. Elliot Spitzer is pushing hard for her. He needs to spend his energy on administering the business of the state. :rolleyes:
My take on Bloomberg is that he doesn't want either the Clinton insiders or the neo-cons back in the saddle. I could be wrong about that, but he's got enough money to out-spend everybody else in the field and he may have the savvy (and the independence from donors) to tell petro, pharma, HMO's etc to shove it when they want to continue to run our government. He may be just what we need to roll back decades of corruption and polarization that have made the public good subservient to the profits of the powerful.
 
  • #129
turbo-1 said:
My take on Bloomberg is that he doesn't want either the Clinton insiders or the neo-cons back in the saddle. I could be wrong about that, but he's got enough money to out-spend everybody else in the field and he may have the savvy (and the independence from donors) to tell petro, pharma, HMO's etc to shove it when they want to continue to run our government. He may be just what we need to roll back decades of corruption and polarization that have made the public good subservient to the profits of the powerful.

I don't know much about him yet, but I do consider him a possible option if Hillary is the Dem candidate.
 
  • #130
CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP, Jan. 10) - John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, gave Barak Obama a timely endorsement Thursday, snubbing Hillary Rodham Clinton as well as his own vice presidential running mate.

Kerry came to South Carolina to embrace Obama, two weeks before the state's primary and with Obama needing a boost after Clinton's emotional victory over him in New Hampshire.
Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina will set up the candidates for Super Tuesday. It seems a two way race with Clinton and Obama more or less running tie at the moment.

Romney needs Michigan to gain momentum. I think McCain and Huckabee will do well in SC.

In the November election, Independents will probably be a deciding factor.
 
  • #131
NH has been huge for McCain! He is now polling nationally at 25-30% (neck to neck with Huckabee), when last moneth he was only at about 10-15%. I wonder if his coffers are starting to fill up too?

Now for some speculation: I wonder how an Obama-Bloomberg ticket might do nationally...
 
Last edited:
  • #132
Gokul43201 said:
Now for some speculation: I wonder how an Obama-Bloomberg ticket might do nationally...
Interesting. Should appeal to independents, more so than Obama-Clinton.
 
  • #133
Isn't it about time for the rest of you to get your Michigan predictions in?
 
  • #134
BobG said:
Isn't it about time for the rest of you to get your Michigan predictions in?
Is Hillary Clinton the only Democrat standing now Barack Obama and John Edwards have taken their names off the ballot?? If so then it's Clinton 1 uncommitted 2 :biggrin:

For Republicans
1 McCain
2 Romney
3 Huckerbee
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #135
Michigan
1 Romney
2 McCain
3 Huckabee

Democrat
1 Clinton
2 Uncommited
 
Last edited:
  • #136
Art said:
Is Hillary Clinton the only Democrat standing now Barack Obama and John Edwards have taken their names off the ballot?? If so then it's Clinton 1 uncommitted 2 :biggrin:

For Republicans
1 McCain
2 Romney
3 Huckerbee

I think Kucinich is still running an invisible campaign (in the invisible primary, no less).
 
  • #137
Michigan:

1). Clinton

1). Romney
2). McCain
3). Huckabee

The polls are tight, but Romney has been claiming that jobs can be saved, and McCain is saying that the jobs are gone forever. So I will bet that the people of Michigan will go with the positive message that they desperately want to hear.
 
  • #138
Sorry for getting in this late. Forgot what date today was...been waiting to see if something shook up between Romney and McCain.

Michigan:

1. Clinton
2. Kucinich
3. Gravel

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee
 
  • #139
2. Kucinich
3. Gravel

I'm not passing up a couple of freebees. :biggrin:
 
  • #140
Mondale takes an early lead for the dems.
 
  • #141
CNN projects Romney the winner.
 
  • #142
Michigan Results:

Dem:
1. Clinton 55%
2. Uncommitted 40%
3. Kucinich 4%
4. Dodd 0.5%
5. Gravel 0.3%

Rep:
1. Romney 39%
2. McCain 30%
3. Huckabee 16%
4. Paul 6%
5. Thompson 4%
6. Giuliani 3%

I'm going to award points only for the Republican Primary results for this one.

Points Table:
Code:
            Michigan     Total
Gokul          6          27
Ivan           6          27
Astronuc       6          25 
Evo            6          25
BobG           4          24
Coin                      15
Art            4          12
Maxwell                   8

Next up: Nevada and South Carolina (R) - Jan 19
 
Last edited:
  • #143
Mike Gravel has to be crushed. Only 3 candidates on the ballot and Gravel finishes 5th. With only 0.3%, he could wind up with negative votes on a recount.

And Giuliani drops to 1-2 against Ron Paul (Edit: Ooops, on the final count, Giuliani manages to edge out Paul so he's 2-1 against Ron Paul).

The thing that amazed me was the number of people that voted in the Democratic Primary. The delegates don't count and only one major candidate was in the race, but around 600,000 voted in the Democratic Primary as opposed to around 800,000 in the Republican Primary. I would have expected that to run around 200,000/1,200,000.

That a made a big difference in the Republican Primay. In 2000, Republicans were a minority in their own primary. In 2008, Republicans made up around 67% of voters in the Republican Primary. The percentage of independents voting in the Republican Primary was down from 2000 as well.

How in the world does the Democratic Primary pull in almost as many voters as the Republican Primary when the Democratic Primary was meaningless? I don't think that bodes well for Republicans.

The other big factor was that Michigan is shaped liked a mitten. I predict Mitt will win every state shaped like a mitten.
 
Last edited:
  • #144
As for setting up for Super Tuesday, estimated top spenders so far are:
opensecrets.org said:
1. Romney - $53 million
2. Obama - $44 million
3. Clinton - $40 mil
4. Giuliani - $31 mil
5. McCain - $30 mil
6. Edwards - $18 mil
7. Richardson (out)
8. Dodd (out)
9. Biden (out)
10. Thompson - $6 mil
11. Paul - $3 mil
12. Kucinich - $2 mil
13. Hunter - $2 mil
14. Huckabee - $2 mil
15. Gravel - $ 0.3 mil
16. Keyes- $0 mil

Can these possibly be up to date and reliable? I know Huckabee's been running his campaign on the cheap, but surely he isn't being outspent by Paul, Kucinich, and Hunter.

Money left in their campaign funds (I know this isn't up to date because it doesn't include 4th quarter fundraising which hasn't been released yet).
opensecrets.org said:
1. Clinton - $50 mil
2. Obama - $36 mil
3. Giuliani - $17 mil
4. Edwards - $12 mil
5. Romney - $9 mil
6. Thompson - $7 mil
7. Paul - $5 mil
8. McCain - $3 mil
9. Huckabee - $0.7 mil
10. Kucinich - $0.3 mil
11. Hunter - $0.1 mil
12. Gravel - has to bum bus fare back home
*excludes candidates that have dropped out

I doubt these are very accurate, but accurate enough to get an idea of the candidates' strategies and potential problems. Money's important, but it's only important you're not totally swamped by your opponents money (well, except in the case of Huckabee vs. Romney - maybe you can't buy me love).
 
  • #145
South Carolina
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

Nevada
Republican:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Thompson

Democrat:
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards

Most .... political ad in South Carolina: Tied Up
Didn't see that coming: Reagan Democrat
Mmmmm, good!: Fried Squirrel
The BlendTec tested endorser: HuckChuckFacts

How is it that Mike Huckabee succeeds as the candidate most likely to be the creation of a Saturday Night Live skit?
 
Last edited:
  • #146
South Carolina
Rep:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

I'm going against the markets on #3.

Nevada
Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Giuliani

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Going against conventional wisdom (Huck) for Rep#3 and Dem#1,#2. For the Dems, I'm expecting the outcome of the Teachers' Union lawsuit to have some small negative blowback for Clinton which would not have shown up in recent polling.
 
  • #147
South Carolina
Rep:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

Nevada
Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
 
  • #148
South Carolina
Rep:
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

Nevada
Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

Dem:
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards
 
  • #149
Seems like Romney has won Nevada. As a as a former Utahn with some knowledge of Moromon weirdness, anyone know why he moved to Mass with such a inheritance of politacal bounty in Mich? Too midwest for a guy with presidential leanings early on and wanting to mitigate a Midwestern/LDS background?
 
  • #150
BobG said:
South Carolina
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

From what I've heard this morning, it could be

1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Thompson

In the south, it seems Huckabee and McCain will have a close contest with the possibility with Thompson edging out Romney.


I think Romney gets Nevada, and the race between Obama and Clinton is close. I guess Edwards will hang in until SuperTuesday.
 

Similar threads

Replies
12
Views
2K
  • Poll Poll
Replies
10
Views
7K
Replies
2
Views
3K
Replies
9
Views
3K
Replies
14
Views
4K
Back
Top