News US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Ivan Seeking]

According to David Gergen, the turn-out for the reps was about 120,000, with the dems getting about double that, and double what we saw for the dems four years ago - a very good sign!

Gergen, who is no lightweight by any measure, is calling Obama's victory speech "historic".

 

[BobG]

A huge turnout for Democrats with about 75% of Independents voting in the Democratic Caucus instead of the Republican.

That gives the impression that the Democratic nomination race is a lot more important than the Republican nomination, which spells bad news for McCain in New Hampshire where, once again, Independents can vote in either primary.

In fact, the combination of Independents going to the Democratic side and Ron Paul sunk McCain below Thompson.

Huge turnout for the under 30 crowd in the Democratic Caucus. Usually, if you depend on the young vote, they never come through.

New Hampshire:

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

 

[BobG]

Oops! I almost forgot about Wyoming's primary. Their Republican primary is tomorrow (Democratic primary is in March sometime):

Wyoming
Rep:

1. Romney
2. Thompson
3. Huckabee

This could be Ron Paul's best chance for a top 3 finish, or even a victory. Who knows? Reporters and pollsters forgot to visit the state (so much for benefits of moving up state primary dates).

I should get a bonus point for even knowing Wyoming had a primary in January.

 

[Astronuc]

Wyoming
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL:
Caucuses
January 5

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL:
Caucuses
March 8

First Primaries/Caucuses
January 3: Iowa caucuses
January 5: Wyoming caucuses - R
January 8: New Hampshire primary
January 15: Michigan primary
January 19: Nevada caucuses - R
South Carolina primary - D
January 26: South Carolina primary
January 29: Florida primary
February 1: Maine caucuses - R


Super Tuesday: February 5 - D or R indicates only party on that date
Alabama primary
Alaska caucuses - D
Am. Samoa caucuses - D
Arizona primary
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado caucuses
Connecticut primary
Delaware primary
Georgia primary
Idaho caucuses - D
Illinois primary
Kansas caucuses - D
Massachussetts primary
Minnesota caucuses
Missouri primary
Montana caucuses - R
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary - D
New York primary
North Dakota caucuses
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Utah primary
W. Virginia convention - R

 

[EnumaElish]

The displayed poll percentages are slightly biased because Cyrus inadvertently voted for everyone (which apparently has not been undone).

 

[BobG]

The displayed poll percentages are slightly biased because Cyrus inadvertently voted for everyone (which apparently has not been undone).

That's okay. He'll vote again January 29. And probably vote exactly opposite what he voted the first time. It'll all even out.

 

[Gokul43201]

Oops! I almost forgot about Wyoming's primary.

Not I! I've using this for the schedule: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_primaries

The current dates up to and including Super Tuesday are now:[2]

* January 3—Iowa Caucus
* January 5—Republican Wyoming caucus
* January 8—New Hampshire Primary
* January 15—Michigan Primary (allowed on appeal[3])
* January 19—Nevada Caucus / Republican South Carolina Primary
* January 26—Democratic South Carolina Primary
* January 29—Florida Primary
* February 2―Maine caucus
* February 5―Super Duper Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states, plus three Democratic-only caucuses and one Republican-only primary

We now accept predictions for Wyoming (Rep, only)

Wyoming (Republican Primary)
1.
2.
3.

If you didn't make predictions for Iowa, it's not too late to join (not until Super Tuesday...it won't be).

Results and scores coming up...

 

[Gokul43201]

Iowa Results:

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton

Rep:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson

Points Table:

Astronuc       9       
BobG           8
Coin           7
Evo            9   
Gokul          8
Ivan           10
Maxwell        8

I've got half a mind to dock Ivan a couple points for being a whiner!

Did I get everyone's scores right? If I screwed up somewhere, feel free to post a revision.

 

[Gokul43201]

Wyoming is a black box. I don't think there's been any statewide opinion polls.

Wyoming:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

I wouldn't be overly surprised if Hunter ends up with over 5% or if Paul squeaks into second or third spot.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I've got half a mind to dock Ivan a couple points for being a whiner!

What?! I thought I would get extra credit for predicting that Obama would beat the poll numbers.

 

[Astronuc]

New Hampshire:

Dem:
1. Obama (I am going to be optimistic, and I hope its a repeat of Iowa)
2. Clinton
3. Edwards (people might take a 2nd look based on the economy)

Rep:
1. Romney (A neighbor)
2. Thompson ( I think NHers might prefer this to a S. Baptist turned politician)
3. Huckabee (possibly McCain here, but I am hoping Huckabee rounds out the top 3).


Wyoming (R): (I agree with Bob and repeat my selection for NH).

1. Romney
2. Thompson
3. Huckabee

NH and WY are more independent/conservative minded.

 

[Astronuc]

Economy grows larger as political issue
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/01/04/candidates_economy/

How will the growing recession fears in the U.S. economy affect the presidential election? Nancy Marshall Genzer sampled some expert opinions.

Unemployment up to 5.0%, which surprised some economists.
Recession looms larger on job figures
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/01/04/jobs/

Not necessarily so, but certainly the economy will become a key issue in the presidential elections and debates, in addition to Iraq (and the larger war on terror) and imigration.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wyoming:

1). McCain
2). Chuckybee
3). Romney

 

[Gokul43201]

Wyoming is 11% Mormon, behind Utah, Idaho and Nevada. Wyoming also has more delegates than NH. I expect this to be an easy win for Romney, who already has the first 2 of 14 delegates. Also, these are the first delegates won by anyone this season, as the Iowa delegates do not get pledged until later. However, the candidates and the press have essentially ignored WY. I think Romney's sons and Hunter's wife are there, campaigning for them.

Late Edit: Romney (~50%) has won Wyoming. Hunter and Thompson (~20% each) are fighting* for second.

* Yeah, right!

 

[Astronuc]

Well I heard Thompson tonight say that he didn't think that US foreign policy was aggressive. Well the US has military forces engaged in combat in two countries and has threatened a third. That seems pretty aggressive to me. Bush is just blatantly belligerent.

 

[Gokul43201]

Wyoming Results:
1. Romney 67%
2. Thompson 25%
3. Hunter 8%

Points Table:

            Wyoming      Total
Astronuc       4          13       
BobG           4          12
Gokul          3          11
Ivan           1          11
Evo                       9  
Maxwell                   8
Coin                      7

Next up: New Hampshire.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wyoming is 11% Mormon, behind Utah, Idaho and Nevada. Wyoming also has more delegates than NH. I expect this to be an easy win for Romney, who already has the first 2 of 14 delegates. Also, these are the first delegates won by anyone this season, as the Iowa delegates do not get pledged until later. However, the candidates and the press have essentially ignored WY. I think Romney's sons and Hunter's wife are there, campaigning for them.

Late Edit: Romney (~50%) has won Wyoming. Hunter and Thompson (~20% each) are fighting* for second.

* Yeah, right!

Why did you expect Romney to win? Eleven percent isn't a terribly large percentage of voters; esp considering that most of the state is probably Rep.

 

[Gokul43201]

Odds are that most people have a neighbor or a good friend or a family member that is Mormon. It significantly reduces the kind of anti-Mormon bias that is pretty strong in other states.

Also, Romney had some key endorsements there, and two of his sons kept campaigning for him till yesterday. During this last month, Romney's sons and Hunter's wife were the only active campaigners in WY.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Odds are that most people have a neighbor or a good friend or a family member that is Mormon. It significantly reduces the kind of anti-Mormon bias that is pretty strong in other states.

Hmmm, good point. And it didn't even occur to me to check the population of Mormons in the state - didn't think there were any to speak of.

Also, Romney had some key endorsements there, and two of his sons kept campaigning for him till yesterday. During this last month, Romney's sons and Hunter's wife were the only active campaigners in WY.

I did see that.

Given that they went 69% Bush in 04, I thought that McCains dogged support of the surge in Iraq would count heavily.

 

[BobG]

Given that they went 69% Bush in 04, I thought that McCains dogged support of the surge in Iraq would count heavily.

The whole point of moving the caucus up was to get some personal attention from the candidates. Being dissed completely is insulting and makes the whole state look like a loser.

Given that, it was a cinch that only candidate that put up a real campaign would win. Thompson and Hunter actually made personal appearances there. I just figured Hunter's so low that he'd be beaten by the few voting for the 'best' candidate regardless of whether they campaigned in Iowa or not. Guess I was wrong. They were really passionate about becoming the next Iowa.

I think there's going to be some huge changes in the primary/caucus process next Presidential election. By Jan 16, quite a few are going to feel a lot of anger over the parties screwing up the process in such an important election. This could be the last time Iowa and New Hampshire go first for quite a while.

On the other hand, a lot of anger at the Democratic and Republican parties could make a Bloomberg run seem a lot more viable.

 

[Astronuc]

The whole point of moving the caucus up was to get some personal attention from the candidates. Being dissed completely is insulting and makes the whole state look like a loser.

Given that, it was a cinch that only candidate that put up a real campaign would win. Thompson and Hunter actually made personal appearances there. I just figured Hunter's so low that he'd be beaten by the few voting for the 'best' candidate regardless of whether they campaigned in Iowa or not. Guess I was wrong. They were really passionate about becoming the next Iowa.

I think there's going to be some huge changes in the primary/caucus process next Presidential election. By Jan 16, quite a few are going to feel a lot of anger over the parties screwing up the process in such an important election. This could be the last time Iowa and New Hampshire go first for quite a while.

Well, I heard that Iowa would move their primary into the year before if other states move their primaries/caucuses before their caucuses!

I think any potential presidential candidate needs to find time to visit each state for a face to face - and talk directly to the people - without intermediaries, and without staged or pre-arranged questions. If someone wants to represent all Americans, then he or she better listen and answer the peoples' questions.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

NH

1). McCain
2). Romney
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

 

[Gokul43201]

NH

1). McCain
2). Romney
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

Ditto!

Any more predictions for NH? Less than half a day to go folks!

Edit: What Iowa's done for Obama: http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119976546847474153-SfjGAnfKNfGb2nYzWGayUorHqNk_20080207.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

 

[Art]

NH

1). Romney
2). McCain
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

 

[Evo]

I'm going with Ivan's picks.

1). McCain
2). Romney
3). Huckabee

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3), Edwards

 

[Coin]

My NH predictions:

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

 

[Gokul43201]

Predictions for NH will be closed in 4 hours (1900ET). Henceforth, let's try and get predictions in before midnight, the night before the primary begins (local time).

So far we've got NH predictions from Bob, Astro, Ivan, Gokul, Evo, Coin and Art.

 

[Beeza]

If the amount of signs on the side of the road is proportional to votes, then Hillary and Ronnie Paul.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It looks like a huge turnout in NH. Some precincts have requested extra ballots as they were running low.

One report described how young people were lined up outside and around the building just to register to vote.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Bill Clinton attacked the Obama "fairy tale" today.

It appears that the Clintons are getting desperate.