News US Presidential Primaries, 2008

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The discussion centers on tracking the Democratic and Republican primary results while participants make predictions leading up to the Iowa Caucus. The Democratic race is tight among Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, with polls showing fluctuating leads. Among Republicans, Huckabee's rise has stalled, resulting in a statistical tie with Romney. Participants are encouraged to predict outcomes for both parties, with a scoring system for correct predictions. The conversation also touches on the candidates' public personas, with some expressing dissatisfaction with their responses to personal indulgences, and highlighting the potential impact of independent voters on the Democratic side. As the Iowa Caucus approaches, predictions are made, with many favoring Obama for the Democrats and Huckabee for the Republicans. The discussion reflects a mix of excitement and skepticism about the candidates and the electoral process, emphasizing the importance of upcoming primaries in shaping the nomination landscape.

Who will be the eventual nominee from each party?

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  • #271
Astronuc said:
With 76% precincts reporting
Not so bad for Obama, considering he did campaign as heavily as Clinton in FL. Not a rout.

Considering she won no delegates from this, I would also agree, NOT a rout. Obviously Hilary is playing this win up, who wouldn't in her position. We'll see how things go next Tuesday. I see Obama winning in his home state of Illinois, along with Georgia, Alabama, and I hear he should be strong in Northern California, though I doubt he'll win the state.

EDIT: Also, MSNBC has pointed out that many votes in Florida were absentee ballots which were cast before Obama's campaign picked up. I doubt even if all of the absentees changed their minds that the result would be different, but I think it would definitely have been a closer race.
 
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  • #272
But Florida will be important in the November election. Clinton has vowed to push the DNC to accept FL delegates, and she'll use the win to regain some momentum for next week.

Obama definitely would have benefitted from a win in FL.

Clinton apparently has the lead in the biggest states next Tuesday, Feb. 5.
 
  • #273
G01 said:
EDIT: Also, MSNBC has pointed out that many votes in Florida were absentee ballots which were cast before Obama's campaign picked up. I doubt even if all of the absentees changed their minds that the result would be different, but I think it would definitely have been a closer race.

Russert made this point as well: A majority of the people who made their minds up recently supported Obama. This is taken as a bad sign for Hillary because there was no real campaigning. Had there been it appears that as we have seen elsewhere, Obama would be a real threat.

FL is viewed mostly as smoke and mirrors for Hillary. It is a measure of year-old attitudes.
 
  • #274
Hillary Clinton trumpets win in Florida despite lack of delegates
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/29/fl.primary.dems/index.html
  • Rivals Sens. Barack Obama and John Edwards did not campaign in Florida
  • There were no delegates at stake in Florida
  • Obama and Edwards concentrated efforts on Super Tuesday states

Published polls showed the New York senator and former first lady was heavily favored in the state.

Her leading rivals, South Carolina primary winner Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John Edwards, did not campaign in Florida. They opted to concentrate on next week's "Super Tuesday" contests in states such as New York, California, Missouri and Georgia.

Code: 
Clinton  856,944  50% 
Obama    568,930  33%  
Edwards  248,575  14%  
Kucinich   9,535   1%

So Clinton will use this as a stage for SuperTuesday.

Code: 
McCain    693,425 36%  57 delegates 
Romney    598,152 31%   
Giuliani  281,755 15%   
Huckabee  259,703 14%   
Paul       62,060  3%   
Thompson   22,287  1%   
Hunter      2,787  0%


McCain Wins Florida's Republican Primary
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18514724

McCain Surges on Strength of Florida Win
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18532797

Giuliani Campaign Never Really Got Going
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18532825

Giuliani is expected to withdraw today and endorse his friend John McCain. The criticism is that Giuliani dropped below the radar of the voters. His mythological status caused some excitement earlier on, but Giuliani stayed away from the early primaries, and so dropped off as a serious contender.


So what will happen on Tuesday, Feb. 5?
Gauging Voters' Views Around the Nation
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18532830
Morning Edition, January 30, 2008 · On Feb. 5, more than 20 states host presidential primary contests. How are voters in three diverse states — Alabama, Arizona and California — feeling about their choices?
 
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  • #275
Clinton agreed (along with Obama and Edwards) not to campaign in Florida after Florida defied the DNC and moved up their primary. Yesterday (primary day) she campaigned there, though she claimed she was not really campaigning because the events were not open to the public. She also agreed not to contest the Michigan primary, but was the only major candidate to leave her name on the ballot, and won 55% of the vote running against "undecided". (In Michigan, candidates could leave their names off the ballot, and Obama and Edwards did so.) Now, she wants to seat all of the Michigan and Florida delegates that she "won", despite the fact that the other major candidates played by the rules and therefore got minimal support in those primaries.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20080128/cm_thenation/1276341
 
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  • #276
Edwards is out. Will he endorse a former rival, or perhaps accept a VP bid?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080130/ap_on_el_pr/edwards;_ylt=AstmLyLUQNWwLTmxVUTtYCis0NUE
 
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  • #277
turbo-1 said:
Edwards is out. Will he endorse a former rival, or perhaps accept a VP bid?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080130/ap_on_el_pr/edwards;_ylt=AstmLyLUQNWwLTmxVUTtYCis0NUE
I heard that also just about half an hour ago. There was a comment that Edwards will support Obama, possibly positioning himself as VP.

I heard a lot of Dems calling the regional public radio station expressing dissatisfaction with Clinton, actually both of them. A lot of local Dems want Bill to step back, and his participation in the campaign has turned off some.

Clinton's participation in FL and MI have made people wonder about her integrity.

Interestingly, the media are not writing much (relatively speaking) about Clinton's win in Florida.

Tuesday will be interesting.
 
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  • #278
At the moment, Edwards may endorse Obama, and that could mean an Obama-Edwards ticket in November. Or if Clinton is second, then Obama-Clinton.

But if Clinton wins, then . . . . Clinton-Obama or Clinton-Edwards, or Clinton-_________, if she or Bill are sufficiently upset with Obama and Edwards.


Also, for the moment, Giuliani is expected to endorse McCain, so could that spell McCain-Giuliani? or would McCain pick Romney or Huckabee?
 
  • #279
A girl at work showed this to me. The Hillary nutcracker. Check out the "thighs of steel". :biggrin:

Obama was here last night and the girl next to me went and said he was awesome.
 

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  • #280
If Obama wins the nomination, he would be far better-off to choose Edwards as a running mate as opposed to Clinton, IMO. She has very high negatives and a lot of baggage, and could easily sink his chances in the general election. He could even show some political savvy and persuade Gore to take the VP slot once again. With Gore's environmental credentials, that pairing would be very tough to beat.
 
  • #281
turbo-1 said:
If Obama wins the nomination, he would be far better-off to choose Edwards as a running mate as opposed to Clinton, IMO. She has very high negatives and a lot of baggage, and could easily sink his chances in the general election. He could even show some political savvy and persuade Gore to take the VP slot once again. With Gore's environmental credentials, that pairing would be very tough to beat.
Gore on the ticket would push me to vote for McCain. I think Gore is creepy. Just a gut feeling.
 
  • #282
Tuesday is going to be a lot more interesting with Edwards out of the race. I expect that many people who would otherwise have voted for him will break for Obama, boosting his candidacy. When people support a candidate in a primary, they may be voting with their hearts, they may be voting strategically, trying to nominate the person who will be most electable in the general election, and they may simply be holding their noses and voting for the least-objectionable candidate. I believe that the Edwards people in the last two categories will end up in the Obama camp on Tuesday and give the Clintons some surprises.
 
  • #283
Meanwhile - As Rudolph W. Giuliani ponders his political mortality, many observers point to the hubris and strategic miscalculations that plagued his campaign.

For Giuliani, a Dizzying Free-Fall
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/us/politics/30giuliani.html
Rudolph W. Giuliani’s campaign for the Republican nomination for president took impressive wing last year, as the former mayor wove the pain experienced by his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and his leadership that followed into national celebrity. Like a best-selling author, he basked in praise for his narrative and issued ominous and often-repeated warnings about the terrorist strike next time.

Voters seemed to embrace a man so comfortable wielding power, and his poll numbers edged higher to where he held a broad lead over his opponents last summer. Just three months ago, Anthony V. Carbonetti, Mr. Giuliani’s affable senior policy adviser, surveyed that field and told The New York Observer: “I don’t believe this can be taken from us. Now that I have that locked up, I can go do battle elsewhere.”

In fact, Mr. Giuliani’s campaign was about to begin a free fall so precipitous as to be breathtaking. Mr. Giuliani finished third in the Florida primary on Tuesday night; only a few months earlier, he had talked about the state as his leaping-off point to winning the nomination.
I think he was a bit presumptuous, and he was not listening to the right people.
 
  • #284
turbo-1 said:
If Obama wins the nomination, he would be far better-off to choose Edwards as a running mate as opposed to Clinton, IMO. She has very high negatives and a lot of baggage, and could easily sink his chances in the general election.
I agree. Bill's influence would be detrimental.

He could even show some political savvy and persuade Gore to take the VP slot once again. With Gore's environmental credentials, that pairing would be very tough to beat.
Yeesh! I hope not. Gore's got baggage, too. I not so sure about his environmental credentials. Call me cynical.
 
  • #285
I just finished listening to today's edition of Democray Now and Amy Goodman interviewed a Florida journalist and a Giuliani biographer. The fellow from Florida said that Rudy came into the state with great poll numbers, but the more voters saw of him, the less they liked him, and many became alarmed by his pro-war rhetoric. He talked about setting Iran's nuclear program back at least 5 years, and sid if he was President, he would "take out" governments of countries that harbor terrorists. Most people are sick of all the violence in the ME, but not Rudy.
 
  • #286
Astronuc said:
Yeesh! I hope not. Gore's got baggage, too. I not so sure about his environmental credentials. Call me cynical.
Well, I'm pretty cynical about politicians, too, which is why I'm an Independent and can't commit to either of the major parties. One thing about Gore, though, is that unlike Cheney, he probably wouldn't hold secret meetings with oil-company execs and lobbyists to set energy policy and environmental policy. I'd put up with a lot to get the oil companies out of policy-making.
 
  • #287
Both Clinton and Obama would be wise to choose someone like General Wesley Clark as a running mate. Especially if McCain is the Republican nominee.

OK I'll make it official: I'm calling it. Wes Clark will be the VP nominee.
 
  • #289
An aide said Edwards does not plan to endorse either Clinton or Obama at this time but he may do so in the future.
from the CNN article cited by Ivan. I heard the same news on NPR this afternoon.
 
  • #290
Evo said:
Gore on the ticket would push me to vote for McCain. I think Gore is creepy. Just a gut feeling.

You don't find McCain creepy? He's the only candidate who appears to like war.
 
  • #291
DeadWolfe said:
You don't find McCain creepy? He's the only candidate who appears to like war.

McCain scares the hell out of me in much the same way that Perot did - he seems to be a bit of a loose cannon. I would take him over Bush, but that ain't saying much.

Never hand the reins of civilization to an old man.
 
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  • #292
Yep, a man who says that 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me" doesn't exactly inspire confidence. We need a new kind of administration that doesn't dream up military "solutions" to every situation, with a strong Secretary of State who understands the difference between negotiating and issuing ultimatums. I would like to see a man like William Cohen in that critical job, though Bill Richardson would probably do a good job.
 
  • #293
Is Romney Fighting the Last War?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/isromneyfightingthelastwar
From the start, Mitt Romney had a clear strategy for winning the White House. He would run as the candidate of the ideological establishment, the Republican old-guard, the coalition of Ronald Reagan, with that three-legged stool of social, fiscal and national security conservatism. He would become the inside man in a presidential field filled with outsiders.

So Romney played in nearly every early straw poll, and pandered to each conservative demographic. He joined the NRA. He talked tough on illegal immigrants, and became a crusader against gay marriage. "Strength" was his watchword. With an impressive gallery of high-profile endorsements, he was the only Republican candidate who seemed to be on the right side of nearly every issue for the plurality of the old GOP coalition. :rolleyes:

And yet, his candidacy sputtered. His narrow loss Tuesday to John McCain in Florida was just the latest in a series of disappointments that began in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states where he had outspent his rivals and once led in the polls. His failures have many causes, which will be raked over by historians. But they also suggest a broader shift: Romney may be running to lead a Republican Party that no longer exists.
Well - perhaps politicians should stop pandering.
 
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  • #294
The hard-line conservatives in the Republican party will not be well-motivated by either McCain, who often takes positions contrary to theirs, or by Romney, who as governor of Massachusetts seemed to be for everything he is now so vehemently against. If the Dems want to win the general election, they should nominate Obama, who seems to be able to motivate people, especially young voters. Much of the Republican base will not be well-motivated by either of the two front-runners, which could benefit Obama.

If Clinton wins the nomination, conservative Republicans will soon lose their aversion to McCain or Romney and will turn out in droves simply to prevent a Clinton win. The Republican attack machine will swift-boat her with ads about Whitewater, her billing records at the Rose Law Firm, Vince Foster's suicide, Bill's philandering, etc, and turn off as many Democratic voters as possible. Expect the nastiest campaign in US history.
 
  • #295
In watching McCain and Guiliani talk today, I can't help but think that when I think of 911, I will indeed always think of Guiliani taking command, not Bush. For that Guiliani will always have my respect.
 
  • #296
With 'change' in mind, voters voice expectations for the next president
By NANCY BENAC and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers
http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-change
WASHINGTON (AP) — American voters have a decidedly negative view of how things are going in the country but they are confident that the next president will have the power to change much of what is wrong.

Some things, however, may be too much even for the president to change.

According to a new Associated Press-Yahoo! News survey, large majorities of voters believe the president has considerable sway on issues such as inflation, interest rates, the federal deficit, taxes and more. Fully three-quarters believe the president has at least some influence over health care costs. And 69 percent can see the president making gasoline prices go up or down.

They are less certain, though, about the president's ability to change how things really work in Washington: 55 percent think it's possible; 44 percent are doubtful, no matter who's elected.
Meanwhile - Bush 2009 budget to freeze many programs
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080131/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_budget

WASHINGTON - President Bush's 2009 budget will virtually freeze most domestic programs and seek nearly $200 billion in savings from federal health care programs, a senior administration official said Thursday. The Bush budget also will likely exceed $3 trillion, this official said.

Perhaps days of austerity approach.
 
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  • #297
Well, I would love to see Obama take it, but I think it will be Clinton vs McCain.
 
  • #298
Honestly, up until last night California debate watching I was convinced Romney had the lead and best chance for the Republican primaries. After the debate I am convinced otherwise for the Republican party.

Romney answered unexicitedly apprhensive with cautious tone and denial stricken guilt to question or delivered comment. Huckabee jumped the gun on the issues and is advertising heavy. Ron Paul is as plain as white bread. But John McCain has passionate honest sincerity built character challenged by no other candidate.

McCain's highest credintials are Romney's one of two regrets; military service. Was a "foot soldier during the Reagan Revolution", and to me, McCain is Top Gun.
 
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  • #299
What I don't understand in these elections is how the media was able to run away with a story of Ron Paul and his racist newsletters from 20 years ago, and yet be completely silent about another candidate's racism.

I mean John McCain, unlike Paul, has actually been recorded/witnessed with saying racist stuff in the past. Anyone remember his 'gook' comment?
"I hated the gooks. I will hate them as long as I live."
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/hongop.shtml

Then, in a debate during this election, he actually made this comment:
“I don’t want to trade with them. All they want to trade is burkas.”

I mean, come on, how do you even get away with saying this? How can the media be so silent with this?

It's sad, but I can make a game of this. Here is my top five most ridiculous quotes from McCain:

1. "I wish interest rates were zero!"
2. "Make it 100!"
3. "I hated the gooks. I will hate them as long as I live." (Would be #1 easily if he said it more recently)
4. "I don’t want to trade with them. All they want to trade is burkas."
5. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06hR2EGpl4o&feature=related"

I'm thinking of adding his http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDuirJaVzS8" somewhere on the list too.
 
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  • #300
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