News US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[turbo]

Ahh, the Dems. Always snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Rooting for the Democrats is like rooting for the Cubs, sometimes.

Yep! The party exhibits little loyalty or discipline and generally manages to give the GOP lots of ammunition to attack them with.

There will be mayhem in the common ranks of the party if the Clintons think they're going to count Michigan and Florida, without re-voting. But if it remains as close as it is now, they might have to do just that.

I certainly hope not. All the Dems pledged not to participate in those primaries, and Clinton reneged both times in a manner "just" oily enough so that she could feign innocence.

The Republicans in my state choose about half their delegates at caucus, the other half in a primary. If the Dems did that in Michigan and Florida, it would take away any advantage either candidate would have with either system.

This sounds like a fair compromise, but such a system would have to be developed in a very short time, and since it would be new to both states (without previous experience and safeguards to prevent rigging) I would be leery of the validity of the results. At least at a caucus (like in my state) you get together with a bunch of politically aware/active people from surrounding communities, and basically argue the good points and weaknesses of the candidates, and horse-trade influence until you've selected a candidate for your delegate to vote for. It's the kind of situation in which you can transcend feel-good sound-bites from the candidates and assess their electability. You may be very taken by a candidate's position on one or more issues, but if your discussions with your neighbors convince you that another candidate is more electable, it's best to show some cohesion with the party and throw your support to the candidate that has a chance in the general election.

 

[CaptainQuasar]

Can anybody come up with something fairer?

Thumb wrestling. Or maybe a pet cockroach race. Wishbone?

⚛​

 

[turbo]

Thumb wrestling. Or maybe a pet cockroach race. Wishbone?

⚛​

Rock, paper, scissors - best of 9.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Now now, we still have Puerto Rico.

 

[lisab]

$100 of this was my contribution!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23050238/

The article says that "the Clinton campaign asked Obama to debate once a week, but he demurred."

Front-runners rarely ask for debates...they've got too much to lose.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Heh, CNN was just reporting that Obama Girl didn't even bother to vote. But she did make it to the election party!

 

[Astronuc]

Jon condenses more than six hours' worth of Super Tuesday tedium and refuses to be pigeonholed as part of a special interest vote.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=156229&title=super-hump-day

Quote of the day: "Voters like to vote for who they like." Wow - what insight!

Jon shuffles through the colors assigned to the candidates and compares the gadgets of the cable news teams.

And don't miss "The best political team - ever!"

or the Comedy Central 's contribution to this years election coverage (if you get tired of the network coverage)

http://www.indecision2008.com/videos.jhtml?cat=candidate

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Why not Jeb Bush as VP?

Wash your mouth out with soap and say 10,000 Hail Mary's and 10,000 Our Father's for that one! Next, please clean up the mess left after my head exploded.

 

[Gokul43201]

Coming up this weekend: Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and Maine (Ya mon, I'm leavin' out them Virgin Islands!)

Lousiana
Dem=
Rep=

Nebraska
Dem=

Washington
Dem=
Rep=

Maine
Dem=

I've left out the recent Rep Caucus in Maine, which was closed as will be the Rep Caucus in Kansas.

 

[Evo]

Will someone please post their choices for tomorrow, so I can copy off of them?

Dem= Clinton
Rep= McCain

Nebraska
Dem= Obama

Washington
Dem= Obama
Rep= Huckabee

Maine
Dem= Clinton

 

[Astronuc]

Kansas caucuses

Republican
1. McCain
2. Huckabee
3. Romney


Louisiana primaries
Dem
1. Obama
2. Clinton
Rep
1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Romney

Maine
Dem
1. Obama
2. Clinton

Nebraska caucuses
Dem
1. Obama
2. Clinton


Virgin Islands caucuses
Dem
1. Obama
2. Clinton


Washington caucuses
Dem
1. Obama
2. Clinton

Rep
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee

 

[BobG]

Lousiana
Dem= Clinton
Rep= McCain

Nebraska
Dem= Obama

Washington
Dem= Obama
Rep= Huckabee

Maine
Dem= Clinton

 

[Gokul43201]

Lousiana
Dem= Obama
Rep= McCain

Nebraska
Dem= Obama

Washington
Dem= Obama
Rep= McCain

Maine
Dem= waiting on this for a day longer (if I forget, put me down for Clinton)

 

[turbo]

BobG and Gokul, if you want your stats to hold, pick Obama to win in the Maine caucuses. Clinton has got a phone-bot campaign running here, and frankly, that pisses people off big-time. Obama has been doing well in caucuses, because his supporters are motivated and well-informed, and a lot of them are younger folks who want to see a change - not just Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Clinton...

 

[Gokul43201]

The last polls I saw had Clinton with a big lead in Maine, but I've been expecting that Obama's since closed it. Some blogs have been talking about an Obama win, but I haven't seen any recent polls yet. That's why I wanted to give myself a little time to do some digging.

 

[lisab]

OK, here we go:

Lousiana
Dem= Obama
Rep= McCain

Nebraska
Dem= Obama

Washington
Dem= Obama
Rep= McCain

Maine
Dem= Obama

 

[Astronuc]

OK - where to the candidates stand on the issues?

Obama
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/ObamaBlueprintForChange.pdf


Clinton
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/


Huckabee
http://www.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Issues.Home


McCain
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/

 

[turbo]

There have been quite a few polls since January that show that if the Dems nominate Clinton, she loses to McCain or maybe just pulls out a squeaker. The same polls show that Obama would beat McCain by maybe 6-10 points.

(CNN) — It's a question both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have raised since John McCain's initial surge in the polls: Which Democrat can best take on the Arizona senator in a general election match-up?

A new Time magazine polls seems to suggest the answer is Obama.

The poll, conducted over the three days leading up to Super Tuesday, shows Obama beating McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent. Clinton ties McCain at 46 percent.

The difference between the two candidates, according to Time, is where the Independent vote goes: The poll indicates a larger share of those voters will chose to support McCain over Clinton than McCain over Obama.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

If Dems attending the caucuses and primaries take these poll numbers seriously, there may be a swing toward Obama, because Super tuesday turned out to be a wash, and electability has to be factored into the choices at the polls. Clinton has the highest negatives of the three, followed by McCain, with Obama a distant third. This is important when you figure that no candidate can win the general election without swaying a majority of the independents.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Lousiana
Dem= Obama
Rep= McCain

Nebraska
Dem= Obama

Washington
Dem= Obama
Rep= McCain

Maine
Dem= tbd

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yesterday Obama was in Washington [the State] and drew a crowd of something like 26,000!

A couple of pundits commented [Washington Week] that in many cases this is more than the combined total of people showing up to see the Republicans; even when we had five or more candidates.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I didn't major in math. I majored in miracles!

I would love to see Huck take the nomination.

 

[Gokul43201]

Gokul, since I missed a primary, are we going to average by the number of primaries we predict in?

The original plan was a "ya snooze, you lose" policy (but I think I'll leave this unresolved until later...in case I feel like snoozing). The drawback of averaging over only the races one participates in permits the system to be gamed by participating only in the easy-to-call races.

Is the prize still 1 million Italian Lire?

A million Italian lire is still like $800! I was thinking maybe a million Turkish lire, which I thought would be less than a buck. Turns out last year the Turks redefined their lira so that 1 new lira = 1 million old lire. Spoilsports!

 

[Astronuc]

Obama wins Neb., Wash. state; Huckabee wins Kansas

WASHINGTON (AP/Yahoo) - Sen. Barack Obama won caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state and battled Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Louisiana primary Saturday night in a bid to chip away at her slender delegate lead in their historic race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Obama was winning nearly 70 percent support in Nebraska, compared with 31 percent for Clinton, in caucuses with 24 delegates at stake.

He also had 67 percent support in Washington state caucuses, compared with 32 percent for Clinton with returns tallied from about one-half of the state's precincts. There were 78 delegates at stake, the largest single prize of the night.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp

 

[lisab]

Today I caucused for Obama. We had 29 people show up to our precinct table. The room, a middle school cafeteria, was packed. My precinct's final vote: Obama, 16; Clinton, 13. Only one person at the table had ever been to a caucus before!

About half the people there were independents or former Republicans. They all went for Obama.

CNN just projected Obama to win Louisiana!

 

[Astronuc]

In Louisiana with exit poll results from CNN at midnight.

Obama    217,291  57%  23
Clinton  134,765  36%  15

Pretty decisive wins by Obama today - so it seems. And he pulls closer to Clinton in number of delegates.

Huckabee   67,685 44% 
McCain    65,066  42% 
Romney     9,844  6% 
Paul       8,237  5%

According AP/Yahoo - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp
Obama sweeps 3 states, Huckabee takes 2

WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama swept the Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state Saturday night, slicing into Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's slender delegate lead in their historic race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Illinois senator also won caucuses in the Virgin Islands, completing his best night of the campaign.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Maine = Obama

 

[Gokul43201]

Maine = Obama

ME too!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Boy, and I thought I was cutting it close!

 

[Gokul43201]

At least I stuck in a pun!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Which brings up a good point: What is the official cut-off?

I voted before any returns had come in. Were they already getting some I would have assumed it was too late.

 

[turbo]

Don't know what we've got yet, Ivan. There has been some slippery weather today (snow) that may have suppressed the participation of older folks, which would favor Obama. Unfortunately, our access to coverage is through local TV stations that are broadcasting basketball and golf - not caucus results. The Dems have only got 24 delegates, but Clinton has been predicting a win here, and a loss (especially a convincing one like in Washington state) would give Obama some more momentum. Some national papers have been saying that women in Maine will hand the delegates to Clinton, but my wife talks politics at work with her co-workers, and her (admittedly rough) poll tells her that working Maine women think that Clinton is too cold, calculating, and unable to change Washington, and that they'll favor Obama. We'll see. Local news is on in 15 minutes and if the stations have done any exit polling, I'll drop in and let you know their projections.

 

[turbo]

Snow didn't hinder the turnout. It's heavy, and as of now, Obama has Maine 57%-42%. More news later as it firms up.

Also, Clinton's campaign manager has just resigned.

 

[Astronuc]

Which brings up a good point: What is the official cut-off?

I voted before any returns had come in. Were they already getting some I would have assumed it was too late.

I think cutoff would be just before polls/caucuses close.

At the time you posted, Ivan, I had not seen any results.


As of 1800 (6:00 pm), only 2261 votes had been counted, but Obama 1,305 vs Clinton 956 with 59% precincts reporting.

 

[Astronuc]

Snow didn't hinder the turnout. It's heavy, and as of now, Obama has Maine 57%-42%. More news later as it firms up.

Also, Clinton's campaign manager has just resigned.

Or was replaced after the poor showing on Saturday.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama beats Clinton...

...for a Grammy.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/02/obama_beats_a_clinton_for_a_gr.html

 

[turbo]

Or was replaced after the poor showing on Saturday.

Well, yes, her resignation was probably not voluntary, but face-saving.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN just projected Obama the winner in Maine.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

$100 of this was my contribution!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23050238/

The article says that "the Clinton campaign asked Obama to debate once a week, but he demurred."

Front-runners rarely ask for debates...they've got too much to lose.

Our second donation.

I love the internet.

Thank you for your generous donation of $100.00.

You've taken ownership of this campaign. But there are still hundreds of thousands of supporters who haven't yet taken that important step.

It's going to take more than just you and the others who have generously donated so far to build this national campaign and transform our political process.

It's going to take a movement.

...

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/semr?source=SEM-register-google-obama-search-national

Thank you again for your donation.

Obama for America

 

[lisab]

CNN just projected Obama the winner in Maine.

Wow, and not by a little bit - Obama got 57%, Clinton got 42%, with 70% of precincts reporting.

A weekend of big wins...! Go, go, Obama!

I'm stoked!

 

[turbo]

Wow, and not by a little bit - Obama got 57%, Clinton got 42%, with 70% of precincts reporting.

A weekend of big wins...! Go, go, Obama!

I'm stoked!

What is particularly nice about this win is that Clinton predicted a win in Maine, and she was backed up by some large regional newspapers. Unfortunately for her (and despite the bad weather) voter turnout broke all records, and when people have to discuss the candidates in caucus and decide how to assign their delegates (as opposed to stepping into a primary voting booth and privately marking a ballot) Obama wins.

As I noted before, her campaign strategy involved bothering everybody with auto-dialed "Vote for Hillary" recordings out of a phone bank in Arlington county, VA, and we got at least 2-3 of those a day in the days leading up to the caucus. If anybody was on the fence about which candidate to support, those repeated intrusions probably pushed them into the Obama camp. Keep making the stupid mistakes, Clinton! At least you'll still be the senator from NY.

 

[BobG]

For Feb 12:

Virginia:
Dem = Obama
Rep = McCain

Maryland:
Dem = Obama
Rep = McCain

DC:
Dem = Obama
Rep = McCain

 

[Gokul43201]

Virginia
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

Maryland
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

DC
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

 

[Cyrus]

Obama came to my school today. I waited in the cold in line for an hour, but we all got in. I clapped. It was O.K.

Hes not a very good orator, but he did give it the old college try.

Obama +1, tomorrow.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama came to my school today. I waited in the cold in line for an hour, but we all got in. I clapped. It was O.K.

Hes not a very good orator, but he did give it the old college try.

Obama +1, tomorrow.

Heh, a number of his speeches are nearly legendary! He is probably very tired.

 

[Cyrus]

I really don't think he talks well. There are a lot of people from the 60s that would clean his clock in public speaking.

For example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENHP89mLWOY&feature=related

is muchhh better than obama on his best day.

Obama says too many, uhhhhhhhhs, and starts acting like a preacher.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I thought you only saw him once. On his best days he brings down the house. Of course much of that results from what he says and not just how he says it.

 

[Cyrus]

Id like to see a youtube of him 'bringing down the house'. Hes just not that good a speaker.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Id like to see a youtube of him 'bringing down the house'. Hes just not that good a speaker.

You must live in a cave. This has been the talk of Washington since he blew away everyone at the 2004 Democratic Convention. And for the last six months his ability enthrall crowds has been a nearly daily event on the news.

So you weren't impressed. Point made.

Of course he tends to attract intellectuals...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Virginia
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

Maryland
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

D.C.
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

 

[Astronuc]

Obama is on a roll, Clinton will be second place.

Virginia
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

Maryland
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

D.C.
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

With Romney out, McCain would seem to the front runner. It will be interesting to see where Huckabee comes in.