News US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Gokul43201]

That conclusion would also depend upon which areas he focused his campaign efforts in SC.

That was exactly my first thought - that Obama campaign advisors would have him targeting dominantly black areas and possibly devoting disproportionately greater talk time to issues that concern blacks more. Rallying the base is what it always comes down to.

 

[Astronuc]

My little experience working campaigns has been that people tend to want to go campaign where they're already popular, despite full knowledge that such is a poor use of resources. It takes a disciplined effort to get yourself out into areas where you're behind (like everything else ;-).

I agree. For example, Kerry by-passed states like Colorado since it was considered a 'red state'. That IMO is wrong. Any politician running for president needs to go to every state and make the case as to why he/she should be elected president. The president is supposed to represent everyone, even those who disagree or even villify him/her.

Also, Sen. Obama is one of most inclusive dems I've seen, but could some of his rhetoric have been at least slightly polarizing? Attacking Sen Clinton for her MLK-but-it-takes-a-President comments?

It's possible. I've missed those particular recent statements where Obama has criticized Clinton. I've heard Obama responding to Bill Clinton's comments. Obama, and others for that matter, should avoid negative campaigning.

Unfortunately, too many voters seem to respond to negative campaigning, which encourages more of it, and that IMO undermines the democratic process.

 

[BobG]

I was tempted to pick "Other" for the Democrats. I think Al Gore still has a chance! I think there's a good chance of both nominations not being decided until the conventions.

I still went with Clinton for Dems just because her organization gives her an advantage with the superdelagates. I think she'll at least go into the convention with the lead.

I went with McCain for the Republicans but I really think it's a toss-up as to who will have the lead going into the convention.

 

[Astronuc]

This will probably disappear after May or June, but -
http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/primaries/

A lot of states up for grabs on Super Tuesday, Feb 5.

Clinton has apparently moved on the campaign in TN.


McCain is rising in Florida following an endorsement by Gov. Bill Crist.


Obviously I missed something, but why was Obama not registered in the Michigan primary?

I think Al Gore still has a chance!

Really!?

I think there's a good chance of both nominations not being decided until the conventions.

I tend to agree.

I still went with Clinton for Dems just because her organization gives her an advantage with the superdelagates. I think she'll at least go into the convention with the lead.

Possibly.

Let's see Feb. 6.

 

[Evo]

Obviously I missed something, but why was Obama not registered in the Michigan primary?

The state moved it's primary up without approval from the DNC, so that primary didn't count. I believe Florida won't count for the Democrats for the same reasons.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22054151/

 

[Astronuc]

The state moved it's primary up without approval from the DNC, so that primary didn't count. I believe Florida won't count for the Democrats for the same reasons.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22054151/

Ah! Thanks! Now Gokul's comment about FL many posts ago makes sense.


One would think with something as significant (important?) as a presidential primary, people would be more responsible, and not play games.

I remember hearing something back in Dec. about some states moving up their primaries to compete with IA and NH, and the folks in Iowa threatened to have their caucuses the year before!

I do think the smaller states need the attention of the nominees, which is why IA and NH have their primaries early in the year.


Clinton is still looking to Florida, perhaps to buoy her campaign for Super Tuesday.

“We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th,” Clinton said in a news release after the South Carolina results showed her losing by a 2-to-1 margin to Obama.

. . . .

Clinton is still polling well ahead of Obama nationally, in Florida and in the biggest Super Tuesday states.

. . . .

Unlike the Michigan Democratic primary, all the Democratic candidates are on the ticket in Florida, but the Democratic National Committee has stripped the state of its delegates as punishment for moving up its primary ahead of Super Tuesday. Candidates would still like a victory there for both bragging rights heading into Feb. 5 and for Florida’s delegates, should they at some point be reinstated

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2008/blog/2008/01/clinton_edwards_soldier_on_tow.html

So does MI and FL have delegates at the Dem national convention?

 

[Astronuc]

Independents' influence in the nominating process

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080127/ap_on_el_pr/super_tuesday_independents

(AP)Two of those states — California and New Jersey — together have nearly 6 million unaffiliated voters who will be allowed to cast ballots. Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts and Alabama are among other prized catches with millions of independents eligible for the Feb. 5 contests.
. . . .

"Obama's trying to do two things at once. On the one hand, energize the liberal base, but also attract independents who are looking for a bipartisan problem-solver," said Jack Pitney, a former deputy research director for the Republican National Committee and a government professor at Claremont McKenna College in California. "That's a very difficult balance, and (Hillary) Clinton is trying to highlight the contradiction there."
. . . .

I don't see a contradiction. Politics is about compromise, and probably no one is completely satisfied with the choices, but in theory a nominee must find the common ground.

Fifteen of the 24 states holding contests on Super Tuesday have some form of flexible voting system. Some are wide open, allowing voters to cast ballots in either party regardless of political affiliation. Others have semi-open primaries, allowing unaffiliated voters to participate if they register with a party on the day of the primary.

Obama could get the biggest boost, analysts said, because independents appear to be leaning toward Democrats this year.

Six in 10 opted to participate in the Democratic contest in New Hampshire's open primary. In exit polls, they have expressed dissatisfaction with President Bush and the war in Iraq, as well as strong concerns about the economy.

Among Republicans, McCain has continued to attract independent voters as he did against George W. Bush in 2000, but they haven't turned out as strongly.

In winning South Carolina's GOP primary on Jan. 19, McCain took 42 percent of the unaffiliated vote to Mike Huckabee's 25 percent. But those voters made up only 18 percent of the electorate, compared with 30 percent in 2000.

Another potential pitfall for McCain is that in California — which has more delegates than any other state — independents will not be allowed to participate in the GOP primary because party leaders decided to close their contest, while Democrats are keeping theirs open.
. . . .

So Super Tuesday could be decisive! Either Obama maintains a lead or Clinton comes from behind.

I think the Republican contest is more of a three-way race. Giuliani is hoping FL goes with him, which would make it very interesting, but I think McCain, Romney and Huckabee are the top three, and McCain and Romney will be jousting for top spot.

 

[BobG]

Obviously I missed something, but why was Obama not registered in the Michigan primary?

And you sounded so certain in your Michigan predictions, too.

Since Michigan and Florida defied the Democratic Party's rules, the plan was to completely boycott their primaries. The delegates wouldn't count, the candidates wouldn't participate in the offending states' primaries. All of the Democratic candidates pledged not to participate in the primaries of states that violated Democratic rules. Unfortunately, the pledge didn't include a definition for 'not participating'.

Both Obama, Edwards, and most of the other Democratic candidates withdrew from the Michigan primary. Clinton and Dodd didn't and the plan went awry (Democrats withdraw from Michigan 'Beauty Contest'). Kucinich attempted to withdraw three times, but didn't follow instructions. He also was the only candidate to campaign in Michigan the week before the primary, but this also could be due to an inability to understand directions - he got lost on the way to New Hampshire or Nevada (one of those 'N' or 'M' states).

It really puts the Dems up against it when it comes to holding the line on stripping Michigan and Florida of their delegates or relenting and allowing Michigan and Florida delegates to attend the nomination and vote. If all of the candidates were at least on the ballot, a case could be made that the primary was somewhat fair and Dems could change their mind about whether Michigan delegates would count or not. The Dems have almost no choice but to stand behind the penalty they imposed on Michigan and Florida.

 

[Astronuc]

And you sounded so certain in your Michigan predictions, too.

Well, yeah! I was certain. Obviously I missed out on the controversy.

Kucinich attempted to withdraw three times, but didn't follow instructions. He also was the only candidate to campaign in Michigan the week before the primary, but this also could be due to an inability to understand directions - he got lost on the way to New Hampshire or Nevada (one of those 'N' or 'M' states).

And Kucinich wants to be president!?

It really puts the Dems up against it when it comes to holding the line on stripping Michigan and Florida of their delegates or relenting and allowing Michigan and Florida delegates to attend the nomination and vote. If all of the candidates were at least on the ballot, a case could be made that the primary was somewhat fair and Dems could change their mind about whether Michigan delegates would count or not. The Dems have almost no choice but to stand behind the penalty they imposed on Michigan and Florida.

That would disenfranchise a lot of people. They should've worked this out months ago.

From BobG's link

Under Democratic National Committee rules, only Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are allowed to hold primaries before February 5.

But Michigan Democrats moved their state's primary date to January in an effort to increase the state's influence in the nominee selection process, arguing Iowa and New Hampshire unfairly dominate the process.

So let Michigan move up, what's the big deal!? They had their primary after IA and NH.

How can people take something so simple and really screw it up!? Oh, yeah - politics.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Caroline Kennedy threw her support to Obama while comparing him to her father, JFK, and now Ted Kennedy has officially thrown his support to Obama as well. He is expected to give an impassioned speech telling why he believes that Obama is who we need.

Apparently he was quite offended by the Clinton tactics of late.

Senator Edward M. Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama for president tomorrow, breaking his year-long neutrality to send a powerful signal of where the legendary Massachusetts Democrat sees the party going -- and who he thinks is best to lead it.

Kennedy confidantes told the Globe today that the Bay State's senior senator will appear with Obama and Kennedy's niece, Caroline Kennedy, at a morning rally at American University in Washington tomorrow to announce his support. [continued]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/ted_kennedy_end.html

 

[lisab]

Caroline Kennedy threw her support to Obama while comparing him to her father, JFK, and now Ted Kennedy has officially thrown his support to Obama as well. He is expected to give an impassioned speech telling why he believes that Obama is who we need.

Amazing. And wonderful .

 

[Art]

I think the Republican contest is more of a three-way race. Giuliani is hoping FL goes with him, which would make it very interesting, but I think McCain, Romney and Huckabee are the top three, and McCain and Romney will be jousting for top spot.

Giuliani might deliver a surprise in Fl. He's been campaigning there for weeks and 35% of the votes have already been cast before the other candidates have even begun their campaigning.

 

[Astronuc]

Giuliani might deliver a surprise in Fl. He's been campaigning there for weeks and 35% of the votes have already been cast before the other candidates have even begun their campaigning.

The results from Florida will certainly be interesting, for both parties, even if the Democrats don't count - yet. If Clinton wins, she'll make a big deal about it while campaigning in states whose primaries are on Feb 5.


I might have to change my votes for Republican, and put McCain first, then Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee. Liz Cheney, who worked in Thompson's campaign, has moved over to help Romney.

 

[Evo]

Where I work, black people are supporting Clinton. They don't think Obama can win.

Is that a portent of what's to come, he doesn't seem to have the black vote? Does anyone know?

 

[Astronuc]

Where I work, black people are supporting Clinton. They don't think Obama can win.

Is that a portent of what's to come, he doesn't seem to have the black vote? Does anyone know?

I think it's up in the air at the moment. Obama certainly had the 'black' vote (I strongly dislike saying that) in South Carolina, particularly with women. Apparently the negative rhetoric from Bill and the Clinton campaign alienated a few people.

I was looking at an AOL poll (of course it's not strictly scientific) and Obama had ~40% of the vote vs ~37% for Clinton, with ~16% for Edwards, and 7% other (366,155 votes). When asked who the Democrats will nominate: Clinton 53%, Obama 40%, Edward 4%, and 3% other (354,014 votes). So there is a disconnect somewhere.

Obama and some of the media are emphasizing the win in SC. If Clinton wins Florida, she will play it for all it's worth.

We'll have to see what happens Feb. 5.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Actually, Obama slaughtered Clinton by 3 and 4 to 1 [depending on age] when considering the black vote. The turnout for dems was as large as the entire electorate in 2004.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#SCDEM

 

[BobG]

I think Al Gore still has a chance!

Really!?

Absolutely! If you get to the conventions with no delegate having enough votes to win, literally anything can happen.

Humphrey won the '68 Democratic nomination without ever entering a single primary. Of course, the favorite and winner of the first primary (incumbent Lyndon Johnson) withdrew on the eve of the second primary and the winner of the most early primaries (Robert Kennedy) was shot the night he won the California primary. There were also only 13 primaries. The rest of the delegates were selected via caucus, mainly by party leaders in each state. Even so, McCarthy, the overall winner in the primaries, could have won the nomination if he had gotten Kennedy's delegates to commit to him.

 

[Astronuc]

Absolutely! If you get to the conventions with no delegate having enough votes to win, literally anything can happen.

Maybe.

Humphrey won the '68 Democratic nomination without ever entering a single primary. Of course, the favorite and winner of the first primary (incumbent Lyndon Johnson) withdrew on the eve of the second primary and the winner of the most early primaries (Robert Kennedy) was shot the night he won the California primary. There were also only 13 primaries. The rest of the delegates were selected via caucus, mainly by party leaders in each state. Even so, McCarthy, the overall winner in the primaries, could have won the nomination if he had gotten Kennedy's delegates to commit to him.

Well - yes, but that was 40 years ago! I think the primaries count for more these days. I remember the '68 Democratic Convention in Chicago. Daley's people got a little rough.

The 2008 Democratic National Convention will be the 2008 United States presidential nominating convention of the Democratic Party. It is scheduled to be held from Monday, August 25, through Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Denver, Colorado. (The 2008 Republican National Convention is planned to start 4 days later, in St. Paul, Minnesota).

Hey, Bob, the 2008 DNC is in your neighborhood. Too bad it's not in Chicago. That would be interesting for Obama.

 

[Gokul43201]

If Clinton wins Florida, she will play it for all it's worth.

No kidding!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20080128/cm_thenation/1276341

What Pledge? Clinton Appears in Florida
...
Like other candidates, she pledged not to campaign in Florida after the state jumped ahead on the schedule of caucuses and primaries set by the Democratic National Committee.
...
But Iowa and New Hampshire are history and, after a landslide loss in South Carolina on Saturday, Clinton needs a win.

So she is appearing in Florida in anticipation of Tuesday's Democratic primary there.
...
The truth of the Clinton strategy was writ large in a memo from top strategist Howard Wolfson, who announced on the day of the campaign's dismal showing in South Carolina that, "Regardless of today's outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday. Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear across the country, as the last state to vote before Super Tuesday on February 5."

"Efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians"?

Obama's just abiding by the pledge. Admittedly, it's a foolish pledge. None of the campaigns should have taken it, and they all should have agreed to drop it. But in the absence of such an agreement, Obama is not ignoring Floridians. He is remaining true to his word.

 

[Astronuc]

How desperate [is Clinton]? She says she'll be back in Florida Tuesday night, presumably to claim a win like the one she hailed after beating "uncommitted" in a Michigan primary that the other major candidates skipped.

from Gokul's citation from Yahoo - "What Pledge? Clinton Appears in Florida"

I would hope Obama issues a statement to Florida that he is not ignoring them, but simply abiding by a pledge. If he disagrees with the pledge, then he ought to say so. I wonder how many voters realize the situation with the DNC? While the leaders might want to disenfranchise the voters, the candidates cannot afford to do so, and shouldn't.

 

[BobG]

Maybe.

Well - yes, but that was 40 years ago! I think the primaries count for more these days. I remember the '68 Democratic Convention in Chicago. Daley's people got a little rough.

The 2008 Democratic National Convention will be the 2008 United States presidential nominating convention of the Democratic Party. It is scheduled to be held from Monday, August 25, through Thursday, August 28, 2008, in Denver, Colorado. (The 2008 Republican National Convention is planned to start 4 days later, in St. Paul, Minnesota).

Hey, Bob, the 2008 DNC is in your neighborhood. Too bad it's not in Chicago. That would be interesting for Obama.

The primaries count for 80% of the delegate total for Democrats. In other words, one of the candidates has to win a little over 62% of the delegates in primaries/caucuses to wrap up the nomination on the first ballot even if every one of the 796 superdelegates votes for someone else..

Unless you go into the convention with an advantage in superdelegates (unpledged delegates). While the delegates aren't pledged, superdelegates are constantly polled by news organizations and, right now, Clinton is pulling about 60% of the superdelegates while Obama is pulling about 30%. If that holds up, Obama needs to win about 55% of the delegates from primaries and Clinton probably needs about 47%.

Right now, Obama has won 41% of the primary delegates and Clinton has won 39% with Edwards picking up the extra. Either way, with over half of the 796 superdelegates remaining mum on who their voting for, there's going to be quite a bit of suspense going into the convention.

If no one wins on the first ballot, all of the delegates become uncommitted delegates and can vote for whoever they choose (Alabama football coach Bear Bryant finished ahead of Alabama governor George Wallace in the '68 Democratic primary, although neither received enough votes to be more than trivia).

And the total delegates available could increase by around 300 depending on what happens with Michigan and Florida delegates.

For Republicans, the method of selecting delegates is decided by each state. Some are winner take all, some are proportional, and some are a mix. Some are committed by primary or caucus results and some aren't (for instance, Iowa and Nevada haven't selected their delegates in spite of making headlines in the last few weeks - supposedly, the results of the caucuses will sway the results of the state conventions, though).

All in all, nothing like either nomination system would ever pass muster for an actual election. The goal is to keep the nomination system from running amok and having voters nominate some upstart like Ron Paul or Mike Gravel. Party leaders like to give party leadership some control of the process and not relinquish too much power to run of the mill Republican/Democratic voters.

And to think - people complain about the electoral vote.

 

[Gokul43201]

Everyone got the SC results right.Points Table:

          SCar(D)       Total
BobG        6             45
Gokul       6             44
Ivan        6             44
Astronuc    6             39 
Evo         6             31
Art         6             31
Coin                      15
Maxwell                    8

For Florida, I'm going with McCain over Romney, but this one's going to be a nailbiter - especially since Florida is a huge, winner-takes-all state!

FL (R)
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Giuliani

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It could easily go either way... I'm only seeing about a 1 point spread in the latest polls. Both McCain and Romney are seeing near vertical spikes in their popularity while Guiliani and Huck are dropping like rocks.

Ditto
FL (R)
1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Giuliani

 

[Astronuc]

RealClearPolitics

Clinton . . . 49% (she'll play this like SC, i.e. a rout)
Obama . . . 27% He's not campaigning
Edwards . . 13%


McCain . . . 25% close
Romney . . . 24%
Giuliani . . . 19%
Huckabee ?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=FL (no results as of 12:05)

 

[Evo]

Going with the majority here.

FL (R)
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Giuliani

 

[Astronuc]

While we're waiting for results from FL,

Obama wins backing of Kansas governor
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080129/ap_on_el_pr/obama_sebelius

TOPEKA, Kan. - Gov. Kathleen Sebelius on Tuesday endorsed Barack Obama for president, a Super Tuesday boost in a GOP-leaning state that Democrats hope to reclaim in the White House campaign.

 

[Astronuc]

Latest State Poll of Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html (13:00 / 1 pm FL time)

Likely Democratic primary voters' choice for nominee in 2008:
Clinton 50%
Obama 26%
Edwards 12%
Unsure 12%

Likely Republican primary voters' choice for nominee in 2008:
McCain 29%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 3%
Unsure 11%

STATE INFORMATION: 27 electoral votes
10,208,431 total registered voters -- 41% Democratic, 37% Republican, 19% Independent, 3% Other

That's worth 4 SC's. So Florida can't be overlooked.

No results yet! Still voting as of 1745 EST.

 

[Gokul43201]

With 32% of precincts reporting, McCain has a 1% lead over Romney, and Giuliani has the same margin over Huckabee.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL

Edit: McCain is pulling away. Exit polls have McCain winning by 2-3%

Later Edit: McCain has been projected to win (57 delegates).

And the inevitable has happened - Giuliani is expected to call it a day.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

(CNN) – Rudy Giuliani may drop out of the Republican presidential race and endorse John McCain, perhaps as soon as Wednesday, GOP sources tell CNN.

 

[G01]

McCain has been projected the winner of Florida, winning by 5 points. It seems that Giuliani is also going to endorse McCain when he drops from the race tomorrow.

edit: I just realized Gokul pointed out the Giuliani endorsement right above me. Sorry for the reposting this info!

 

[Astronuc]

With 76% precincts reporting (from CNN Election 2008)
Not so bad for Obama, considering he did campaign as heavily as Clinton in FL. Not a rout.

Clinton   752,877   50%   
Obama     496,247   33%
Edwards   218,535   14%
Kucinich   8,505     1%

McCain     614,398    36% 57 del (winner take all?)
Romney     530,513   31%
Giuliani   252,801   15%
Huckabee   228,220   14%
Paul        54,951   3%
Thompson    20,214   1%
Hunter       2,459   0%