News US Presidential Primaries, 2008

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The discussion centers on tracking the Democratic and Republican primary results while participants make predictions leading up to the Iowa Caucus. The Democratic race is tight among Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, with polls showing fluctuating leads. Among Republicans, Huckabee's rise has stalled, resulting in a statistical tie with Romney. Participants are encouraged to predict outcomes for both parties, with a scoring system for correct predictions. The conversation also touches on the candidates' public personas, with some expressing dissatisfaction with their responses to personal indulgences, and highlighting the potential impact of independent voters on the Democratic side. As the Iowa Caucus approaches, predictions are made, with many favoring Obama for the Democrats and Huckabee for the Republicans. The discussion reflects a mix of excitement and skepticism about the candidates and the electoral process, emphasizing the importance of upcoming primaries in shaping the nomination landscape.

Who will be the eventual nominee from each party?


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  • #691
Ivan Seeking said:
Raining McCain
by The McCain Girls


That's just not right! :smile:


:smile:

No that's wrong, in every sense of the word wrong. :smile:
 
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  • #692
On foreign policy -

McCain Calls for 'Global Compact' to Resolve Conflicts
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89123951
All Things Considered, March 26, 2008 · Disavowing unilateralism, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) clarified his foreign policy views on Wednesday, promising, if elected, to consult and work more closely with allies overseas to resolve future conflicts than the Bush administration has done.

Domestically -

McCain Rejects Broad U.S. Aid on Mortgages
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/26/us/politics/26mortgage.html
SANTA ANA, Calif. — Drawing a sharp distinction between himself and the two Democratic presidential candidates, Senator John McCain of Arizona warned Tuesday against vigorous government action to solve the deepening mortgage crisis and the market turmoil it has caused, saying that “it is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers.”

Mr. McCain’s comments came a day after Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York called for direct federal intervention to help affected homeowners, including a $30 billion fund for states and communities to assist those at risk of foreclosure. Mrs. Clinton’s Democratic opponent, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, has similarly called for greater federal involvement, including creation of a $10 billion relief package to prevent foreclosures.

As the foreclosure crisis has rippled across the economy, it has thrust itself to the forefront of the presidential race, with Democrats seizing on the issue in urging forceful government steps to alleviate the crisis. Mr. McCain’s remarks Tuesday, to a group of Hispanic businessmen here, signaled a sharpening divide between the two parties’ candidates, with the senator warning against quick, costly government fixes to a crises rooted in the private sector.

“Rampant speculation” on both sides is the root cause of the crisis, Mr. McCain said. He placed part of the responsibility for the mortgage mess on lenders, who he said had grown “complacent” in a rising market and as a result acquired a “false sense of security” that caused them to “lower their lending standards.”

McCain is definitely an improvement over the current president.
 
  • #693
Astronuc said:
McCain is definitely an improvement over the current president.
Possibly, but I am quite leery of him after learning that he believes that Iran is training al Qaeda terrorists. His lack of understanding of the political dynamics of the ME is quite disturbing. If he is elected, he will be responsible for cleaning up Bush's mess, and he hasn't been doing his homework. His much-vaunted foreign-policy credentials seem quite thin.
 
  • #694
turbo-1 said:
Possibly, but I am quite leery of him after learning that he believes that Iran is training al Qaeda terrorists. His lack of understanding of the political dynamics of the ME is quite disturbing.
Where did he say that?
 
  • #695
mheslep said:
Where did he say that?
Looks like bait... but I'll bite.

In an interview with Hugh Hewitt, speaking from Amman (Mar 17):
McCain said:
As you know, there are al Qaeda operatives that are taken back into Iran, given training as leaders, and they’re moving back into Iraq.
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/talk...tentGuid=ae522a49-6c82-4791-a76e-44ebb718bf32

And again, in a press conference (of sorts), also, I think, in Amman (Mar 18):
McCain said:
[It's] common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that's well known. And it's unfortunate.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/19/dems-seize-on-mccains-iran-gaffe/
 
  • #696
mheslep, it was all over the news during his ME trip. I thought that everybody had heard these gaffes by now. At one point, Lieberman stepped into correct him, but that certainly should not have been necessary. When a presidential candidate spouts absolute nonsense as "common knowledge" I have Bush "yellowcake/WMD" flashbacks.
 
  • #697
Al Qaida (basically a Sunni group) is a big problem for Iran (predominantly Shii), especially near the borders of Iraq and Afghanistan!
 
  • #698
Some talking heads say that McCain has been skewing his language to confuse the issue of who is causing the problems, but he carried it so far that he managed to confuse himself.

My dad is easily confused at his age as well. He is about the same age as McCain.
 
  • #699
I don't think age is the problem, Ivan - it's ignorance. McCain repeated those untruths several times over the course of days. His grasp of the sociology and history of the Middle East is woefully inadequate. Furthermore, by painting Iran as the region's bad guys, he gives Bush and Cheney more cover for their wish to attack Iran. I really don't want McCain to succeed Bush, because I don't expect that his foreign policy will be an improvement.
 
  • #700
I find it really hard to believe that McCain can be so disconnected as to get this wrong. Unfortunately, I can't come up with any good excuses for him (not after he said the same thing twice).

Nearly as hard to believe is the possibility that he's somehow bought the al qaeda mantra that the administration has been peddling, when any reasonably well-informed person knows that AQI is responsible for only a tiny fraction of the violence.
 
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  • #701
turbo-1 said:
I don't think age is the problem, Ivan - it's ignorance. McCain repeated those untruths several times over the course of days. His grasp of the sociology and history of the Middle East is woefully inadequate. Furthermore, by painting Iran as the region's bad guys, he gives Bush and Cheney more cover for their wish to attack Iran. I really don't want McCain to succeed Bush, because I don't expect that his foreign policy will be an improvement.

Is that a commonality amongst American politicians, or at least presidential candidates? I wonder? How are Clinton and Obama on history and sociology of the ME? Could this be more spin, is he more aware than perhaps his comments let on? After all a significant proportion of Republican voters probably believe that Al-Qaeda are responsible for most of the violence in the ME, instead of a series of autonomous groups. It's true to say though that with the advent of the internet and other technologies, these groups are far less autonomous than they used to be. But even so some are actually radically opposed to each other. The Iranians and the Sunni insurgents for example, don't exactly share a very good history. Neither do the Taliban and the Iranians, or certain Mujahadeen. Although there certainly are links between Iran and Hezbollah, though how far they go I'm not sure. And let's look at the 60 or so terrorist groups to see who they share ties with. It's a bit of a morass to be frank.
 
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  • #702
Schrodinger's Dog said:
Is that a commonality amongst American politicians, or at least presidential candidates? I wonder? How are Clinton and Obama on history and sociology of the ME?
I doubt either of them could be as ignorant as McCain has made himself look. But in general, I notice a weakness in global socio-political awareness. I remember one of the Democratic debates when Hillary was asked about Dmitry Medvedev, and while she got his name right, she really struggled to pronounce it. How can Americans be some ignorant about the most common Russian names? Hasn't anyone read Sun Tzu here?
Could this be more spin, is he more aware than perhaps his comments let on? After all a significant proportion of Republican voters probably believe that Al-Qaeda are responsible for most of the violence in the ME, instead of a series of autonomous groups.
He has to be aware that an intentional spin on this would not get past the press.
 
  • #703
Gokul43201 said:
I doubt either of them could be as ignorant as McCain has made himself look. But in general, I notice a weakness in global socio-political awareness. I remember one of the Democratic debates when Hillary was asked about Dmitry Medvedev, and while she got his name right, she really struggled to pronounce it. How can Americans be some ignorant about the most common Russian names? Hasn't anyone read Sun Tzu here?

The Sun is a comic more than a Newspaper, if its in The Sun it's either false or it's a slow news week and it's false. :smile: However for a change I suspect they are right. :smile: I blame the education system. I hate to make generalisations but in my experience, only well educated Americans seem to be aware of the ME, and it's complicated history and even then only those who interest themselves in politics rather than running for government, if you see what I mean. :smile: Oh sorry you meant Sun Tzu. hehe :wink: just my little joke. Maybe they should of taken the words the enemy of my enemy is my friend on board when Iran offered to help the US fight the Taliban? Mutual enemies... To be honest if they had they wouldn't actually be at war with Iraq without the approval of the UNSC.

Every blade of grass, every bird in flight is significant to the wise leader.

keep your friends close your enemies closer

Sun Tzu.

Still very apt today.

Haven't read the whole thing but its quotes litter the internet. So if you hang around long enough in the interweb ether you pick it up.

He has to be aware that an intentional spin on this would not get past the press.

True, good point. But then that leads to the question how many Republican voters take notice of the press, and how many fox news, or other? But yeah I guess it seems like a gaff under that light.
 
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  • #704
turbo-1 said:
mheslep, it was all over the news during his ME trip. I thought that everybody had heard these gaffes by now. At one point, Lieberman stepped into correct him, but that certainly should not have been necessary. ...
"I'm sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al Qaeda. I am sorry," the Arizona senator said.
Yes, ok as you say a gaffe. Its certainly not something 'he believes'.
 
  • #705
Gokul43201 said:
...when any reasonably well-informed person knows that AQI is responsible for only a tiny fraction of the violence.
There's very good arguments that AQI was the primer cord that ignited much of the other violence e.g. the golden dome attack. Whether or not AQI gets the credit is arguable; there's no question it was there intention.
 
  • #706
mheslep said:
There's very good arguments that AQI was the primer cord that ignited much of the other violence e.g. the golden dome attack. Whether or not AQI gets the credit is arguable; there's no question it was there intention.

To be frank though saying they are the primer cord is false, there were a myriad of groups there before, if anything was the primer cord it has been Western influence in the ME since 1914. The groups are the natural result of kicking bees nests without caring which species of bees you upset, for the reason of - let's face it - oil and economics and political clout. We can see a logical path from oil being discovered in the ME, to WWII where it was the be all and end all to the modern era. And lead Germany to gain oil fields in the ME then lose them and turn to using coal to make oil, the British, and allies, the manipulation of treaties and so on. It's a rich complicated history that revolves around not caring who you upset and why.

If you really know the history, it's a morass of hypocrisy, lies and diplomatic wrangling, where the West lit the touch paper.

I doubt most people are aware of the half of it.
 
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  • #707
mheslep said:
Yes, ok as you say a gaffe. Its certainly not something 'he believes'.
Unfortunately, it appears that he did believe it, as he repeated it several times in different settings over a period of days. He said that it is "common knowledge". Who in their right mind would believe that Iranian Shiite mullahs would train Sunni militants, then ship them back to Iraq to kill Shiites? That is absolutely ridiculous, and it points to a fundamental ignorance about the political/military dynamics in that area of the world. You'd think that a presidential candidate would take great pains to be educated/briefed on at least the fundamentals, seeing that we have troops trying to ride herd on a civil war between these two groups.
 
  • #708
mheslep said:
There's very good arguments that AQI was the primer cord that ignited much of the other violence e.g. the golden dome attack. Whether or not AQI gets the credit is arguable; there's no question it was there intention.
Actually there are very poor arguements that AQI (Musab al-Zarqawi's group) is the primer cord. The insurgency began in June '83 with Bremer's order to dismiss and disband the Iraqi army. They had no money and no possibilities - except to fight the occupying foreign forces. This has been well documented and the Bush administration still denies it.

al Zarqawi's group became aligned with bin Laden's al Qaida in late 2004, about 16 months after the insurgency began.
 
  • #709
mheslep said:
Yes, ok as you say a gaffe. Its certainly not something 'he believes'.
I don't know what belief has to do with anything here. But McCain claiming he misspoke about Iran-al Qaeda carries about as much conviction as Clinton claiming she misspoke about Bosnia. You can slip up once, but you can't slip up twice or thrice about the same thing and call it a "slip up". Only difference between Clinton and McCain: Clinton knew she was wrong!
 
  • #710
Gokul43201 said:
Only difference between Clinton and McCain: Clinton knew she was wrong!
Clinton knew she was flat-out lying! At least McCain can take shelter under ignorance rather than mendacity, if he would like to come off as stupid instead of dishonest.
 
  • #711
Astronuc said:
Actually there are very poor arguements that AQI (Musab al-Zarqawi's group) is the primer cord. The insurgency began in June '83 with Bremer's order to dismiss and disband the Iraqi army. They had no money and no possibilities - except to fight the occupying foreign forces. This has been well documented and the Bush administration still denies it.

al Zarqawi's group became aligned with bin Laden's al Qaida in late 2004, about 16 months after the insurgency began.
Yes 'primer' is poor choice, I didn't mean AQI started the early insurgency, but that his group was responsible for a huge up swing in the violence. W/ regards to alignment in '04, that is incorrect per this and numerous other sources.
http://www.eagleworldnews.com/2006/06/10/iraq-a-timeline-of-abu-musab-al-zarqawi/
...
February 22, 2006: Armed gunmen affiliated with al-Zarqawi’s group blow up the Golden Mosque in Samarra, a sacred site to Iraq Shi’a. The attack sets off days of intense sectarian violence across Iraq.
...
April 2002: Al-Zarqawi leaves Iran and enters Iraq.

December 2001: Following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, al-Zarqawi flees to Iran.

2000: Al-Zarqawi sets up an Al-Qaeda training camp near the western Afghan city of Herat.

1999: Al-Zarqawi is freed from jail under amnesty granted by Jordanian King Abdullah shortly after he took office. Al-Zarqawi travels via Pakistan to Afghanistan, where he joins up with Al-Qaeda.
 
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  • #712
mheslep said:
Yes 'primer' is poor choice, I didn't mean AQI started the early insurgency, but that his group was responsible for a huge up swing in the violence. W/ regards to alignment in '04, that's false.
http://www.eagleworldnews.com/2006/06/10/iraq-a-timeline-of-abu-musab-al-zarqawi/
I don't see anything that clearly falsifies what Astro was saying, but if anything, the phrase "joins up with al Qaeda" is misleading.

I'm going to go linkless now, out of laziness, and summarize what I've gotten from varied readings (primarily FAS and/or Globalsecurity).

First off, Zarqawi was essentially a rival to bin Laden, though not an enemy by any stretch, during the 80s. When he went back to Afghanistan after his stint in Germany, he set up base near the Afghan-Iran border and had his own training camp there. During this time, he established contacts with bin Laden but still maintained his own operation some 300 odd miles away.

When he came to Kurdish-occupied Iraq, he did not come there as a part of AQ. He joined with Ansar al Islam in their fight against Kurdish warlords, to set up Sharia-based settlements in Kurdistan. He had no operational ties with Saddam, and the Baathists are thought to have attempted, several times, to infiltrate Ansar. And it was only in late 2004 that he actually merged with bin Laden's AQ.

(links provided upon request, I'm too tired now to go digging)
 
  • #713
Did anyone else watch the McLaughlin Group tonight? Even the likes of Pat Buchanan and Monica Crowley were virtually gushing over Obama! I don't think I've ever seen anything like it in the 20+ years that I've been watching the show.

Re Nader, Eleanor Cliff cited a cartoon in which an aging Ralph Nader is seen along with the caption: "Unsafe at any speed". :smile:
 
  • #714
Gokul43201 said:
I doubt either of them could be as ignorant as McCain has made himself look.
Well Hillary, at the very least, has proven herself to be quite ignorant of the events of her own life! :smile:
 
  • #715
No no no, there is a HUGE difference between ignorance and a flat out lie. I think it's safe to say McCain just had his facts confused, or just didn't know them in the first place. But Hillary damn well knew what she was doing. You don't attempt to prove that you are "leader material" by saying you went to Bosnia and an 8-year-old girl was already there ready to read a poem. Oh, and you brought your only child along.
 
  • #716
Yes, McCain was confused and Hillary was lying. Combine the two and we get Bush!

Who wins? Obama.
 
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  • #717
Ivan Seeking said:
Yes, McCain was confused and Hillary was lying. Combine the two and we get Bush!
Hillary for VP! (on the GOP ticket) She's damaging the Democratic party's chances in the general election by doing her best to make Obama look unelectable. If she hijacks the superdelegates and pulls off a Dem nomination, look for mass defections to McCain and four more years of an expensive and futile war that is wrecking our all-volunteer military.
 
  • #718
When I see Buchanan and Crowley gushing over Obama I know that anything is possible! I expect that sort of thing from Cliff, but Crowley?!

Obama might just be the next President.
 
  • #719
Only anecdotal, but my sister-in-law called yesterday after watching Obama on "The View". She's very excited about his candidacy and it seems like she's going to vote Democratic in the general election for the first time in her life. She called to see how to access streaming video of that show on the Internet so she could convert her husband, too.
 
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  • #720
I just read a pretty decent article by Eric Deggans, the gist of which was "Why didn't journalists who accompanied Clinton to Bosnia point out that 'evasive maneuvers, sniper fire, running for cover' etc were all lies?" Why was it a comedian with a seemingly dead career who had to point this out?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-deggans/why-did-it-take-sinbad-to_b_93972.html

CBS's Sharyl Attkisson, NBC's Andrea Mitchell, and former MTV News reporter Tabitha Soren were all on the trip, and they knew that Clinton's description of the situation was a pack of lies. Why didn't at least one of them speak up before Sinbad let the cat out of the bag? What happened to journalistic integrity? Does it get tossed when you want access to the candidate whose veracity you should be examining?
 

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