News US Presidential Primaries, 2008

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The discussion centers on tracking the Democratic and Republican primary results while participants make predictions leading up to the Iowa Caucus. The Democratic race is tight among Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, with polls showing fluctuating leads. Among Republicans, Huckabee's rise has stalled, resulting in a statistical tie with Romney. Participants are encouraged to predict outcomes for both parties, with a scoring system for correct predictions. The conversation also touches on the candidates' public personas, with some expressing dissatisfaction with their responses to personal indulgences, and highlighting the potential impact of independent voters on the Democratic side. As the Iowa Caucus approaches, predictions are made, with many favoring Obama for the Democrats and Huckabee for the Republicans. The discussion reflects a mix of excitement and skepticism about the candidates and the electoral process, emphasizing the importance of upcoming primaries in shaping the nomination landscape.

Who will be the eventual nominee from each party?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
  • #961
Obama told the group he had a "fundamental disagreement" with Carter, who was rebuffed by Israeli leaders during a peace mission to the Middle East this week.

"We must not negotiate with a terrorist group intent on Israel's destruction," Obama said. "We should only sit down with Hamas if they renounce terrorism, recognize Israel's right to exist, and abide by past agreements."

but later in the same story...

Obama also said he's willing to make diplomatic overtures to Iran even though has funded Hamas and other militant groups.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/16/obama_reassures_jewish_leaders_on_hamas_wright/

So I guess it's okay to meet with the true leaders of Hamas but not Hamas?
 
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  • #962
Obama appears to be bribing Superdelegates...
Obama leads Clinton in giving money to superdelegates

...In cases where superdelegates received money from Obama's Hope Fund but none from Clinton's PAC, Obama got the superdelegates' support 85 percent of the time. And in cases where superdelegates received money from Clinton's Hillpac but none from Obama's PAC, 75 percent backed Clinton.

Some superdelegates, such as Democratic Sens. Robert Byrd of West Virginia and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, received $10,000 from both Obama and Clinton. Neither senator has endorsed a presidential candidate.

The superdelegates include nearly 800 members of Congress, governors and Democratic Party leaders who could be the tiebreakers in the close race between Clinton and Obama. The study noted that many of them are the candidates' friends, colleagues or financial beneficiaries who have much closer ties to the candidates than regular delegates.

"And while it would be unseemly for the candidates to hand out thousands of dollars to primary voters, or to the delegates pledged to represent the will of those voters, elected officials who are superdelegates have received at least $904,200 from Obama and Clinton in the form of campaign contributions over the last three years," the study said, adding that both Clinton and Obama "will be calling in favors."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/31905.html

Oh yeah, that's change we can believe in...
 
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  • #963
chemisttree said:
No lobbyists? A lie! He has 14 bundlers who are registered as lobbyists.
http://www.whitehouseforsale.org/index.cfm
Or not. Apparently none of those 14 is currently a registered lobbyist. Last Lobby Report indicates the last year registered as a lobbyist.

Code:
      Name          State       Employer             Last Lobby Report 
Timothy M. Broas      MD     Winston & Strawn                2000
Frank Clark           IL     Commonwealth Edison             2000
Howard W. Gutman      MD     Williams & Connolly             1999
Scott Harris          DC     Harris Wiltshire and Grannis    2006
Allan J. Katz         FL     Akerman Senterfitt              2004
William T. Lake       DC     Wilmer Cutler Pickering 
                             Hale and Dorr                   2001
Robert S. Litt        MD     Arnold & Porter                 2002
Kenneth G. Lore       DC     Bingham McCutchen               2001
Thomas J. Perrelli    VA     Jenner and Block                2002
Thomas A. Reed        VA     Kirkpatrick & Lockhart 
                             Preston Gates Ellis LLP         2006
Paul N. Roth          NY     Schulte Roth & Zabel            2005
Alan Solomont         MA     Solomont Bailis Ventures        2006
Robert M. Sussman     DC     Latham & Watkins                2006
Tom E. Wheeler        DC     Core Capital Partners           2003
Compare those 14 with those for Clinton (22) and McCain (69).
 
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  • #964
chemisttree said:
but later in the same story...

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/16/obama_reassures_jewish_leaders_on_hamas_wright/

So I guess it's okay to meet with the true leaders of Hamas but not Hamas?
:confused: Most of Hamas' funding comes from Saudi Arabia who western leaders meet with regularly.
David Aufhauser, general counsel to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, said in congressional testimony that despite some success in curbing terror financing, "by no means have we crossed the bridge of the issue of terrorist financing emanating from Saudi Arabia." Aufhauser noted that not only is it donating to Hamas not a crime in Saudi Arabia, but Hamas raises "enormous amounts of money" during the month of the Hajj alone -- a period so lucrative for Hamas that it sends its political director to the Kingdom.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2378

Hamas are a Sunni group, Iran is Shi'ite. You seem to be confusing Hamas with Hezbollah.
 
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  • #965
It would appear that Obama and/or the reporter confused Hamas with Hezbollah. There is also a Hezbollah (Hizballah al-Hejaz) group in Saudia Arabia and the Gulf States, but it is considered a terroist group by the Saudi government.
 
  • #966
chemisttree said:
Obama appears to be bribing Superdelegates...
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/31905.html

Oh yeah, that's change we can believe in...

The donations cited appear to have been made before Obama even agreed to run. One was for the 2006 election, and the rest were only cited as:

And if that's the case, it's good news for Obama. Since 2005, his PAC has donated $710,900 to superdelegates,

What's more, when I tried to check the link for the list [at the bottom of the page that you linked], it was dead. So either provide evidence that this is a bribe or retract your statement. Intentionally posting misinformation merits 3 of the 10 points needed for a member to be banned.

The fact that people of like mind support each other isn't surprising.
 
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  • #967
Astronuc said:
and McCain (69).

How about that.
 
  • #968
Obama overtakes lead in superdelegates for first time
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90310310
WASHINGTON May 10, 2008, 07:07 pm ET · Barack Obama erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among superdelegates Saturday when he added more endorsements from the group of Democrats who will decide the party's nomination for president.

Obama added superdelegates from Utah, Ohio and Arizona, as well as two from the Virgin Islands who had previously backed Clinton. The additions enabled Obama to surpass Clinton's total for the first time in the campaign. He had picked up nine endorsements Friday.

The milestone is important because Clinton would need to win over the superdelegates by a wide margin to claim the nomination. They are a group that Clinton owned before the first caucus, when she was able to cash in on the popularity of the Clinton brand among the party faithful.

Those party insiders, however, have been steadily streaming to Obama since he started posting wins in early voting states.
 
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  • #969
i thought it interesting that our poll showed as much optimism for huckabee as for mccain.

to me it is sad but illuminating that in this primary process i have gone from respecting all three currently viable candidates, to respecting only obama.

politicians who are losing, even courageous and intelligent ones, seem sadly susceptible to throwing mud and appealing to low instincts and bluntly offering money to buy voters.

obama to me is the only one who has shown integrity from first to last in this regard.
 
  • #970
mathwonk said:
i thought it interesting that our poll showed as much optimism for huckabee as for mccain.

to me it is sad but illuminating that in this primary process i have gone from respecting all three currently viable candidates, to respecting only obama.

politicians who are losing, even courageous and intelligent ones, seem sadly susceptible to throwing mud and appealing to low instincts and bluntly offering money to buy voters.

obama to me is the only one who has shown integrity from first to last in this regard.
Where did Senator McCain fail you in this regard?
 
  • #971
mheslep said:
Where did Senator McCain fail you in this regard?
I don't know what mathwonk thinks, but when McCain demonstrated that he is incapable of absorbing information on Iraqi factions and al Qaeda in Iraq, spoke of his willingness to stay 100 years in Iraq, spoke on his intention to extend the Bush administration's economic "policies", etc, he stopped looking like a decent alternative to Clinton. Then when he claimed Hamas was rooting for Obama, he lost all the respect that I had for him.
 
  • #972
Mathwonk?
 
  • #973
turbo-1 said:
...Then when he claimed Hamas was rooting for Obama, he lost all the respect that I had for him.
Hamas leadership has stated they favor Obama and "hope he wins the election."
 
  • #974
sorry to drop out. when senator mccain went to liberty university to court jerry falwell, he pretty much started a downward trend that to me is very sad.
 
  • #975
McCain lost me when he failed to reject Bush and his policies. If he treated Bush like Senator Webb does, I would still be open to considering McCain - the only way that I would vote for a Rep this fall would be if he completely rejected the Bush administration, all that they have done, and many of those who supported him, esp on the radical religious right.

I had a fairly high opinon of McCain - esp when he spoke out against the use of torture - but he has sold out to appease the conservative base. And beyond that, I have serious doubts about his competency at this point. The age question is completely legitimate as are questions about his temperament. Nor does he impress me as being particularly bright. In short, I don't trust him to make good decisions.
 
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  • #976
turbo-1 said:
I don't know what mathwonk thinks, but when McCain demonstrated that he is incapable of absorbing information on Iraqi factions and al Qaeda in Iraq, spoke of his willingness to stay 100 years in Iraq, spoke on his intention to extend the Bush administration's economic "policies", etc, he stopped looking like a decent alternative to Clinton. Then when he claimed Hamas was rooting for Obama, he lost all the respect that I had for him.

I don't know if his slip-ups are 'senior moments,' but the president needs to know the difference between a Sunni and a Shi'ite, and Shi'ite from Shinola.
 
  • #977
i love it!

lisab for speechwriter.
 
  • #978
Astronuc said:
It would appear that Obama and/or the reporter confused Hamas with Hezbollah. There is also a Hezbollah (Hizballah al-Hejaz) group in Saudia Arabia and the Gulf States, but it is considered a terroist group by the Saudi government.

I did the same thing while arguing with a young Jordanian last year at my other forum.
Because of that minor faux pas on my part, I would not hold that error against anyone.
 
  • #980
Ivan Seeking said:
And beyond that, I have serious doubts about his competency at this point. The age question is completely legitimate as are questions about his temperament. Nor does he impress me as being particularly bright. In short, I don't trust him to make good decisions.

I think that's a fair concern. Before candidates even declared to run, I felt he'd already missed his only real shot. He could have endorsed someone younger (like Chuck Hagel) and still had a major impact on the race.

I still have a lot of respect for McCain (and maybe more likely to vote for him than Obama), but it's still fascinating to see how politicians change over time (or scary since everyone gets older?). Both McCain and Bill Clinton have shown signs that they've past their peak. Even if Hillary Clinton still had any chance of winning the nomination, Bill Clinton has reached the point where he wouldn't be a great asset even after the election.

No matter how sharp a person is at their peak, eventually his physical body is going to have an effect on his other abilities. Probably just a matter of genes, but I'm kind of surprised Bill Clinton seems to be getting older faster than McCain, especially considering the physical abuse McCain has gone through.
 
  • #981
lisab said:
Shi'ite from Shinola.
I understand the desire to say negative things about McCain, but I don't consider it to be sufficient cause for this unfortunate comparison.
 
  • #982
jimmysnyder said:
I understand the desire to say negative things about McCain, but I don't consider it to be sufficient cause for this unfortunate comparison.

it's a joke
 
  • #983
lisab said:
I don't know if his slip-ups are 'senior moments,' but the president needs to know the difference between a Sunni and a Shi'ite, and Shi'ite from Shinola.
And the difference between Iran and Iraq, on which Sen. Obama slipped up in this year's Crocker/Petraeus hearings.
 
  • #984
mathwonk said:
sorry to drop out. when senator mccain went to liberty university to court jerry falwell, he pretty much started a downward trend that to me is very sad.

Alright then I assume you were referring to associations when you said
...Obama to me is the only one who has shown integrity from first to last in this regard.
which sounds like a zero tolerance policy. If so, then how do you square that with Obama and Wright?
 
  • #985
Ivan Seeking said:
McCain lost me when he failed to reject Bush and his policies. If he treated Bush like Senator Webb does, I would still be open to considering McCain - the only way that I would vote for a Rep this fall would be if he completely rejected the Bush administration, all that they have done, and many of those who supported him, esp on the radical religious right.
Sen. Web has also not done any total denunciation of the current administration, as you define it, either.[/QUOTE]
 
  • #986
mheslep said:
which sounds like a zero tolerance policy. If so, then how do you square that with Obama and Wright?
Obama didn't go courting Wright.
 
  • #987
Astronuc said:
Obama didn't go courting Wright.
'Courting' is a bit ambiguous. McCain gave a speech on Falwell's turf. Exactly what is it that Obama did not do w/ Wright in the same sense that McCain did do w/ Falwell? McCain certainly never wrote a biography which he claimed was 'inspired' by Falwell as Obama did with Wright.

Follow-up: Let's explore basic principles here. Do you support Obama's contention that the "United States is trapped by the Bush-Cheney approach to diplomacy that refuses to talk to leaders we don't like." That instead, "Obama is willing to meet with the leaders of all nations, friend and foe." Do you support dialog internationally with "friend and foe" alike while castigating McCain for talking to Falwell.
 
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  • #988
anybody who compares the visit of mccain to liberty university and the reversal of his denunciation of that rascal, with obama's bold attempt to open a cross racial dialogue after wright's incendiary videos, obviously does not want to really discuss anything reasonably.
 
  • #989
mathwonk said:
anybody who compares the visit of mccain to liberty university and the reversal of his denunciation of that rascal, with obama's bold attempt to open a cross racial dialogue after wright's incendiary videos, obviously does not want to really discuss anything reasonably.
Strawman. That is not the comparison put forward at all. This has nothing to do with whatever to do with what Obama did post video.
 
  • #990
Astronuc said:
Or not. Apparently none of those 14 is currently a registered lobbyist. Last Lobby Report indicates the last year registered as a lobbyist.

Code:
      Name          State       Employer             Last Lobby Report 
Timothy M. Broas      MD     Winston & Strawn                2000
Frank Clark           IL     Commonwealth Edison             2000
Howard W. Gutman      MD     Williams & Connolly             1999
Scott Harris          DC     Harris Wiltshire and Grannis    2006
Allan J. Katz         FL     Akerman Senterfitt              2004
William T. Lake       DC     Wilmer Cutler Pickering 
                             Hale and Dorr                   2001
Robert S. Litt        MD     Arnold & Porter                 2002
Kenneth G. Lore       DC     Bingham McCutchen               2001
Thomas J. Perrelli    VA     Jenner and Block                2002
Thomas A. Reed        VA     Kirkpatrick & Lockhart 
                             Preston Gates Ellis LLP         2006
Paul N. Roth          NY     Schulte Roth & Zabel            2005
Alan Solomont         MA     Solomont Bailis Ventures        2006
Robert M. Sussman     DC     Latham & Watkins                2006
Tom E. Wheeler        DC     Core Capital Partners           2003
Compare those 14 with those for Clinton (22) and McCain (69).


Significantly, the Center’s lobbyist sector excludes in-house lobbyists who work solely for one company, union, trade association, or other group. These people may lobby, but their contributions are grouped in the totals for the various industries they represent, along with contributions from other employees in the sector, their relatives, whatever PAC money has been raised, and donations from trade and professional associations which, of course, carry lots of weight in the horse trading that occurs when legislation is drafted. (Corporations cannot contribute directly to candidates.)

Contributions made by the various industry sectors tell the real story in a presidential race. And Opensecrets.org shows that Obama is picking up gobs of money put on the table by these special interests—including those involved in health care, which will surely have a lot riding on the outcome of the election and will expect to be heard after the election is over.
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/obamas_lobbyist_line.php

This is what I meant. You can't see the effect of lobbists nowadays due to the changing nature of the way money is collected by so-called 'bundlers' and former lobbists.

Comparing numbers to McCain and Clinton isn't my point either, but it is a good point especially in McCain's case. Obama says that he doesn't get money from lobbists but they do work on his behalf. Since they don't hand the check over personally, they don't have to register as lobbyists. But their efforts are noted in his disclosure information.

He does employ lobbyists in his campaign but he didn't say that he is taking money from them. Obama's goal is to break the link between lobbyists, their money and their petitioning of the government but he employs them in his campaign as advisors - not contributors per se. McCain's campaign is practically run by lobbyists as well, so the straight talk express can't really claim the high ground on this issue. That said, this isn't really change at all. Just more lipstick on the pig.

Daniel Shapiro, who advises Sen. Obama on foreign policy issues, is registered to lobby on behalf of the American Petroleum Institute and other corporate clients. Broderick Johnson, a friend and informal political adviser, heads up the lobbying arm in Washington of the Bryan Cave LLP law firm, where he represents Verizon and Shell Oil, among other clients.

Mr. Johnson sees no conflict in Sen. Obama seeking lobbyists' advice while declining their donations. "Sen. Obama's overriding objective is to break the link between lobbyists, their money and their petitioning of the government," Mr. Johnson said. "It doesn't matter to him if you're contributing through your personal efforts."
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120433642148104761-uMpNDvKEAFnulL5UqrgCcKfZRIY_20090301.html?mod=rss_free
 
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