US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Gokul43201]

With 72% complete in IN, Hillary's lead is down to 5%. Most remaining numbers are to come from Bloomington, Indy and Gary. This may end up being pretttty close!

 

[G01]

MSNBC has just changed IN status from "too early to call" to "too close to call."

Looks like it's going to be an exciting night. Hilary's lead down by 4...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Woohoo, not a good night for Clinton.

 

[Gokul43201]

What you really need to know if you will be voting in Oregon: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24474746#24377512
(wait for 1:14)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I was wondering why Obama Girl answered the phone when I called the help line.

 

[Gokul43201]

You didn't ask her (or was Tsu around)?

Things are essentially decided now.

Obama will win NC by at least 13%, and Clinton will win IN by at least 3%.

We seem to have reached some kind of hiccup with the counting in IN, with 57% of Marion county (Bloomington and neighborhood), and 100% of Lake County (Gary...) not reporting for the last hour or more.

Curiously, if Obama narrows the margin in IN to less than 3.0%, then CNN will report it as 2% for Hillary!

 

[russ_watters]

Woohoo, not a good night for Clinton.

Dunno, she seems pretty optomistic to me!

We've come from behind, we've broken the tide and thanks to you it's full speed on to the White House!"

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/05/clinton-full-sp.html

 

[Gokul43201]

She may yet have to eat those words!

Holy cow...are the numbers from Gary looking good for Obama...way better than I'd expected. Clinton's lead is now down to 2% and falling fast...real fast!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Re Russ: She needed a larger victory in IN and a smaller loss in NC. This may effectively be the end for Hillary - money and superdelegates.

Re Gokul, YES! Obama still has a chance.

 

[Gokul43201]

The race in Indiana is over and Hillary won by 1.8%. The final numbers from Lake County actually went Hillary's way, just as predicted by David Schuster on MSNBC.

 

[russ_watters]

Re Russ: She needed a larger victory in IN and a smaller loss in NC. This may effectively be the end for Hillary - money and superdelegates.

No, I agree, I just thought it was funny. Hillary picked-up 10 delegates in PA and considered that a huge win, but tonight she lost 20. That really should be it for her.

I asked this before: does she have a plan?

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Clinton's decisive win in the primary last night proves once again that she is the clear choice for the Democrats. I expect Obama to drop out before the next round of primaries. The math is against him. Here are the numbers:

Delegates: Obama only has 1622, far short of the 2025 he would need to win.
Superdelegates: Obama only has 254, far short of Clinton's 273.
States: Of the last three primaries, It's Clinton 2, Obama 1. Even though he said Indiana was the tie breaker.
Popular vote: Clinton got 638,274 to Obama's 615,862. And this in Indiana alone.

Our next President is going to have to explain our defeats in Iraq as if they were victories. Who better than Clinton to take over that responsibility?

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Last night McCain also came one step closer to defeating his opponent, 'anyone but McCain'. He picked up an impressive upset victory with 74% of the vote in North Carolina, and 78% in Indiana. McShane McBlain McClane, spokesperson for the McCain campaign called on the republican party to unite. However, exit polls found little support for McCain. Voters said they were simply voting for anyone but 'anyone but McCain'. Sillary Clinten, spokesperson for the 'anyone but McCain' camp vowed to stay in the race until 2012.

 

[drankin]

We've got an anyone but Hillary camp and an anyone but McCain camp. Conservatives get the bad deal this election.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Based on everything that I'm hearing, less Clinton's rhetoric, it seems that this race is over:

OBAMA IS THE WINNER!

Did anyone catch Hillary's blooper the other night? She said ~ "No matter how this turns out, I will support the nominee for the Democratic Party" She was implicity acknowledging her defeat.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

"I think it's very clear who Hamas wants to be the next president of the United States. I think that people should understand that I will be Hamas's worst nightmare... If Senator Obama is favored by Hamas, I think people can make judgments accordingly."

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/obama_speaks_ou.html

PASTOR JOHN HAGEE: John McCain will be a strong courageous and effective leader from the first day...

BILL MOYERS: That's John Hagee, pastor of a conservative mega church in Texas and one of television's most powerful prophets of the end times, anointing John McCain for the White House:

PASTOR JOHN HAGEE: To lead America into a bright and promising future. Ladies and gentleman ...

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/03072008/watch.html

I think people can make judgments accordingly.

 

[Astronuc]

I heard a comment from a political scientist the other day stating that the three candidates: McCain, Clinton and Obama, got as far as they did precisely because they have the support of corporate/political interests and lobbyists. So don't expect much change in the election process or subsequent government operation, as of Jan 20, 2009.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I seems to me that Obama has gotten as far as he has because of internet donations. Where is the corporate money? Something like 90% of his money comes from donations less than $100...

 

[Poop-Loops]

90% of his donations or 90% of his total money came from donations that were <$100?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I believe it is 90% of his money, but either way, donations are limited to $2500 per person, so the two numbers shouldn't be that far apart. And it doesn't leave much room for bundlers.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Hillary, who has obtained money the old fashioned way, and who was thought to be unbeatable due to the extensive money machine and network that the Clintons enjoy, has been outspent by as much as 5:1 by Obama.

 

[Poop-Loops]

Hillary, who has obtained money the old fashioned way, and who was thought to be unbeatable due to the extensive money machine and network that the Clintons enjoy, has been outspent by as much as 5:1 by Obama.

See see? Obama will just end up spending us into another Depression! I'm the only candidate that can win and be the best ever!

http://www.redstaterascals.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/hillary-bug-eyed-smile-thumb.jpg

I'm getting a pony!

 

[russ_watters]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/obama_speaks_ou.html


http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/03072008/watch.html

I think people can make judgments accordingly.

Just to be clear, are you saying Hagee and Moyers are terrorists and if Obama were President he'd hunt them down and kill them?

 

[Poop-Loops]

I wish.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Just to be clear, are you saying Hagee and Moyers are terrorists and if Obama were President he'd hunt them down and kill them?

Yes.

 

[lisab]

Just to be clear, are you saying Hagee and Moyers are terrorists and if Obama were President he'd hunt them down and kill them?

Don't be foolish.

 

[russ_watters]

Yes.

Ok, thanks. Good to know. Do you have any references for that position of Obama's, though? It might be a tough platform for him to run on in the flyover states.

Don't be foolish.

Just wanted to be clear on the parallel Ivan was drawing. Otherwise, his post doesn't make any sense. It looked like an apples to pears comparison to me without that clarification he gave.

 

[Vanadium 50]

90% of his donations or 90% of his total money came from donations that were <$100?

According to the AP, 90% of his 1.5M donors and 45% of his $226M. Also, 20% of the money comes from people giving the maximum $2300. That works out to:

• 1.35M donors giving less than $100 and an average of $75.33.
• 130,000 donors giving at least $100, less than $2300, and an average of $606.84.
• 19,700 donors giving the maximum of $2300.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ok, thanks. Good to know. Do you have any references for that position of Obama's, though? It might be a tough platform for him to run on in the flyover states.

It is not appropriate for staff members to troll the forums. You should try having a little class sometime.

 

[chemisttree]

I believe it is 90% of his money, but either way, donations are limited to $2500 per person, so the two numbers shouldn't be that far apart. And it doesn't leave much room for bundlers.

That's how bundlers work. They don't themselves hand over the checks. They come in from the individual. Obama is not releasing the exact amounts his bundlers have raised and from whom.

From Obama's website:

This campaign is about building a different kind of politics. We don't take money from lobbyists or political action committees, and we're going to build a broad base of individual donors to ensure that this campaign answers to no one but the people. That starts with you. Make your donation online using the form below.

No lobbyists? A lie! He has 14 bundlers who are registered as lobbyists.
http://thedemocraticdaily.com/2008/02/06/bundlers-for-barack-obama-who-have-registered-as-federal-lobbyists/
http://www.citizen.org/documents/LobbyistsFinal.pdf
http://www.whitehouseforsale.org/index.cfm

The 90% number that Obama gave in the debate is wrong somewhat. (http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/was_obama_correct_to_say_90_of.html ) Over two thirds of money comes from donors that give more than $200. All the rest must give way less.

Obama seems to be going back on his word that he would opt into the Presidential Financing System. http://citizen.typepad.com/watchdog_blog/2008/02/will-obama-opt.html