Many thanks for responding. Actually I am already using a Kalman Filter - I was trying to capture the essence of the problem without the details, perhaps I simplified it too far :)
In a bit more detail, let's say that I have an acceleration signal with additive Gaussian noise. I double integrate this in the KF keeping the velocity and position as state. Actually there are other state parameters related to calibration, but let's put these aside. So with no observations, just the predictive model, the velocity for example will take a random walk with linearly increasing variance. The position will have quadratically increasing variance. However, I have some knowledge about the position: it is mean zero with known variance (as the device being sensed is not actually moving much). At present I use a pseudo-observation on the position in the KF which works fairly well to constrain its mean and variance, and give good values for the calibration parameters. But I have to find the pseudo-observation covariance empirically... (i.e. trial and error!). I'd really like some theoretical solution. There's a fair bit of material around on including constraints in KF design, but I have something a bit different I think: knowledge of the actual pdf of the resulting state variable... I just don't know how to apply it.
Any thoughts?