News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #361
Index of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/financialsvcs_dem/press092808.shtml
 
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Physics news on Phys.org
  • #362
SEC. 122. INCREASE IN STATUTORY LIMIT ON THE PUBLIC
4 DEBT.
5 Subsection (b) of section 3101 of title 31, United
6 States Code, is amended by striking out the dollar limita7
tion contained in such subsection and inserting
8 ‘‘$11,315,000,000,000’’.

wow. Pretty soon it adds up to real money.
 
  • #363
Alfi said:
wow. Pretty soon it adds up to real money.
So that's where they snuck that in. I guess that covers the $700 billion and another $400+ billion deficit for FY2009.

I wonder if they hope that no one actually reads the entire document or if they do, they don't notice the details.
 
  • #364
Interesting, almost everyone (except the young Earth creationist) in my office is voting for Obama, and these people are from Missouri and Kansas. Even my boss, who is Hispanic, is voting for Obama. He even has a personally autographed photo of Obama in his office. All of these people are highly religious, they grab you and start praying over you in the office, one is a minister. They *LOVE* Obama. Doesn't this go against the grain of who is supposed to be pro-Obama? Maybe there is more support for Obama than is reflected in the polls. In my office alone there are over 100 people, so I would say that it is a pretty good sampling.
 
  • #365
Evo said:
Interesting, almost everyone (except the young Earth creationist) in my office is voting for Obama, and these people are from Missouri and Kansas. Even my boss, who is Hispanic, is voting for Obama. He even has a personally autographed photo of Obama in his office. All of these people are highly religious, they grab you and start praying over you in the office, one is a minister. They *LOVE* Obama. Doesn't this go against the grain of who is supposed to be pro-Obama? Maybe there is more support for Obama than is reflected in the polls. In my office alone there are over 100 people, so I would say that it is a pretty good sampling.

It's not that surprising really. Obama is a religious man after all. Though he does not wear it on his sleeves or take policy positions that pander to the far right faith agendas. It's not exactly like he is a heathen that Catholics or Baptists can't relate to.
 
  • #366
LowlyPion said:
It's not that surprising really. Obama is a religious man after all. Though he does not wear it on his sleeves or take policy positions that pander to the far right faith agendas. It's not exactly like he is a heathen that Catholics or Baptists can't relate to.
It's funnier that these people think Palin is crazy. They are the people she is supposed to attract.
 
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  • #367
It's been reported that Palin was asked to name an important Supreme Court ruling besides Roe v. Wade and she couldn't come up with one.

Apparently it will air tomorrow in a Katy Couric interview excerpt.

Yikes.

Of course besides Roe v. Wade others like Brown V Board, or Miranda, or US v Nixon, or Bush v. Gore, Dred Scott have had little to do with the course of US affairs and the basis of our laws. Heck who needs to know stuff like that anyway? It's only our HISTORY.
 
  • #368
Evo said:
It's funnier that these people think Palin is crazy.

You can't say they aren't paying attention then.
 
  • #369
I just saw this. It's a clip of how a Faux News reporter can't even spin the results of a live poll properly. Apparently a Fox reporter decided to poll some customers in a small town PA diner to see who they'll vote for:

KTkqosRiyYo[/youtube] Hilarious.
 
  • #370


The swingman cometh?

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174  |  273/265    273/265
 
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  • #371
Defennder said:
Apparently a Fox reporter decided to poll some customers in a small town PA diner to see who they'll vote for:
That's not just any "small town". That was Scranton, PA - home to Hillary and Biden.
 
  • #372
Defennder said:
I just saw this. It's a clip of how a Faux News reporter can't even spin the results of a live poll properly. Apparently a Fox reporter decided to poll some customers in a small town PA diner to see who they'll vote for:

KTkqosRiyYo[/youtube] Hilarious....voters and viewers they apparently appeal to.
 
  • #373


Market Update:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
June 26    $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
July 11    $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
July 26    $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug  11    $59.2    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
 
  • #374


Your market update doesn't include the period for early September when McCain got his post convention bump. I'd like to know what the numbers were then.
 
  • #375
LowlyPion said:
Well all the Fox people behind the camera were raising their hands.

I think to work at Fox you have to be certified as dummie. Even Hannity's token liberal foil Coombs, is a dummie because Hannity can't compete with anything warmer than a corpse.

This is apparently why they like McCain (at the bottom of the Naval Academy class), and Palin a shallow thinker par excellance that just reads what's put in front of her. These are the kinds of voters and viewers they apparently appeal to.
If I recall correctly, Fox preferred Giuliani in the GOP primaries. Don't think they had a good opinion of McCain then.
 
  • #376
Obama was brilliant today.

Perfectly staged address, standing from his seat in the Senate, he could have been Jimmy Stewart, delivering his speech in support of the Senate version to economic recovery.

In one brilliant image he makes all this McCain nonsense about being in the Arena into desperate rhetoric of a failing campaign. McCain can soon start making his retirement plans.

Maybe he and Bush can go on a fishing trip?
(I personally wouldn't recommend going hunting with ol' 2nd Amendment Chaney, however.)
 
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  • #377


Defennder said:
Your market update doesn't include the period for early September when McCain got his post convention bump. I'd like to know what the numbers were then.
Updated upon request - the bump you are looking for is visible in the Sep 11 numbers.

Market Update:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322

Note: day-to-day fluctuations are about $1 in the Intrade markets and about 0.01 points in the IEM.
 
  • #378
Des Moines Straight Talk Express:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoHSLrnjdCI
 
  • #379
LowlyPion said:
Des Moines Straight Talk Express:

The guy looks like he's seething...he looks like he's ready to blow up! No way McCain has the temperment needed to be President. No way, no how...
 
  • #380
Woohoo! CNN shows Obama leading in both Ohio and Florida. Yipppeeee!

They also show Obama gaining ground with women, and in particular married women. He is also leading in Florida with people over 50 year of age. THAT is huge! Finally, he now has a higher favorability rating than McCain, which is a first.
 
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  • #381
lisab said:
The guy looks like he's seething...he looks like he's ready to blow up! No way McCain has the temperment needed to be President. No way, no how...

What I find disturbing is his stubborn clinging to the idea that Obama had any intent to distribute condoms to kindergartners. The bill he has signed referred to "age appropriate" education. I think the thing that Conservatives are really not wanting to discuss is that the bill mentioned discussion of same sex heads of households, wanting instead I suppose to instill ignorance among school children that are already in many cases witness to such arrangements, either in their families or their classmates. Just another thing that encourages divisiveness in society.
 
  • #382
Ivan Seeking said:
Finally, he now has a higher favorability rating than McCain, which is a first.
That's not true. McCain held a higher favorability rating than Obama only for a brief period of a week or two following the Palin announcement. Before that (since at least as long ago as June), as well as over this last week, Obama has had McCain beat, in terms of favorability.

See, for instance: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/favorable.html
 
  • #383
Hmmm, are you sure? I thought McCain was always leading in this category... [ah, didn't see the link]

Holding my breath: Based on the current map, Florida alone puts Obama over the top. And I saw one poll that gives Obama an additional 4 point spread [in Florida] when third-party candidates are included.
 
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  • #384
Ivan Seeking said:
Woohoo! CNN shows Obama leading in both Ohio and Florida. Yipppeeee!

They also show Obama gaining ground with women, and in particular married women. He is also leading in Florida with people over 50 year of age. THAT is huge! Finally, he now has a higher favorability rating than McCain, which is a first.
The age thing is pretty big.

The most amazing thing in the polls has been Virginia and North Carolina being so close while Obama hasn't been able to seal the deal in Michigan and Ohio. This has a lot to do with the age gap in voter preference. States from the rust belt with declining populations are older - the young people move somewhere with a better future. States with a growing economy attract more young people, so states like Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Virginia aren't as solidly Republican as they used to.

If Obama breaks that age gap, then he can probably seal up the election. Depending on young voters is a risky way to go since they aren't as dependable in showing up at the voting booth.
 
  • #386
I think that in part, the older folks have been impressed with his performance in regards to the financial crisis. McCain looked a bit clownish.


...and I can't believe that the average older voter will fall for this Palin crap; not for long.
 
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  • #387
McCain pulling out of Michigan
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081002/pl_politico/22895
John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

McCain's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans had been bullish on Michigan, hopeful that McCain's past success in the state in the 2000 primary combined with voter dissatisfaction with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and skepticism among blue-collar voters about Barack Obama could make it competitive.
. . .
But recent polls there have shown Obama extending what had been a small lead, with the economic crisis damaging an already sagging GOP brand in a state whose economy is in tatters.
 
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  • #388
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081002/pl_politico/22895;_ylt=AnlBno6_MUMuwo5ld1VIPlOs0NUE

McCain has pulled out of Michigan. (Michigan said he really wasn't that good, anyway.) :devil: No more TV, no mailings.

Leap-frogged by Astronuc!
 
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  • #389
Sarah Silverman and The Great Schlep [profanity]
 
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  • #390
Not that I normally care what he has to say, but Glenn Beck is predicting that McCain's vote for the bailout will cost him the election.

Beck definitely has a following of like-minded viewers.
 

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