News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

[LowlyPion]

Looking ahead I have to wonder what the First Obama Term will be like.

When Kennedy was elected, he had Lyndon Johnson the Majority Leader of the Senate become his Vice President. This gave him some amount of leverage on Capitol Hill. And if anyone was more of an insider than Lyndon it was only his mentor Sam Rayburn. Between the 2 of them they had great sway legislatively.

In this regard Biden is no Johnson. And Pelosi could barely muster half the party on the bailout. While I think Harry Reid is fairly adept, and the Democrats will stand to make substantial gains over the Republicans, I have some concerns about how successful compromises may be reached and how the changes that need to be made will be made.

While I think Obama may face challenges legislatively, I believe a McCain Presidency would be even more disastrous. Forget Palin being useful for anything but pep rallies. In congress her "mavericky" shtick will go absolutely nowhere. Leaving McCain and his sidekick Lieberman - neither of whom are respected by either party - without any base to do anything. Unfortunately these are times that demand action. And McCain's apparent impotence to affect much of anything looks paralyzing and deadly.

 

[Amp1]

An article looking a little deeper than the obvious racial undertones of McCains blurb/slip/gaffe in the second debate. Although, that slip gives us some insight into McCain's actual personality and subsurface intolerance. This articles examins right-wingers/neo-cons overall in that line of inquiry.

It is however from a dissident site:

http://counterpunch.com/dimaggio10092008.html

 

[mathwonk]

i believe integrity and honesty mean a lot. i think a persons whole life of behavior matter more in predicting how they will act in office than what they say in a short period of time in a campaign.

However what they are willing to say and do reflects their degree of integrity. I have been very puzzled by mc cain's behavior in this campaign, beginning with his visit to liberty university to cater to jerry falwell, someone he accurately described earlier as an agent of intolerance, and someone i have found disgusting for years. (I have been a Methodist my whole life.)

Then when he changed his opposition to torture, my disappointment deepened. then choosing sarah palin and going almost entirely negative in this campaign, has changed my view of him as someone of integrity to someone almost scurrilous, or at least desperately ambitious entering possibly his dotage.

I am even beginning to wonder if it is possible for a person to change his level so integrity so much, that I am questioning the accuracy of my earlier impression of him. He is making me wonder if he ever had much integrity. Certainly his behavior in the Keating scandal reflects little of that quality.

Has he crafted a false resume of integrity all these years, or is he just someone who declines to adhere to his principles when it is costly to do so? His willingness to kiss up the the worst elements of his party for short term gain make the label "maverick" entirely inappropriate for him i think, almost ludicrous.

 

[Amp1]

Mathwonk

I am even beginning to wonder if it is possible for a person to change his level so integrity so much, that I am questioning the accuracy of my earlier impression of him. He is making me wonder if he ever had much integrity. Certainly his behavior in the Keating scandal reflects little of that quality.

Has he crafted a false resume of integrity all these years, or is he just someone who declines to adhere to his principles when it is costly to do so?

Yes, from my reading of that Rolling Stone article someone was kind enough to link, I have come to that conclusion. I'm getting the feeling that he may be a closet racist, unlike Palin who is more overt.

His wife adopting an african child now seems like a masterful deception to cover his hidden intolerance.

 

[turbo]

He is making me wonder if he ever had much integrity.

He married a beautiful model, and when he got home from Vietnam, he found that his wife was disfigured from going through a windshield in a car crash. To save her legs, the surgeons had to remove a lot of bone, leaving her short, ill-proportioned, and with an awkward gait. McCain found a wealthy beauty queen to woo and took out a marriage license before his divorce from his first wife was final. I think McCain's shortage of personal integrity has been evident for a long time.

Of the Keating Five, McCain was the only Senator to have close personal ties to Keating, and his wife and father-in-law had business dealings with Keating. McCain flew at Keating's expense a number of times, several times on Keating's private jet, but never reimbursed Keating for the trips until years later, when he learned that Keating was in trouble over the collapse of the Lincoln S&L. So much for professional/political integrity.

http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/1989-11-29/news/mccain-the-most-reprehensible-of-the-keating-five/1

 

[turbo]

His wife adopting an african child now seems like a masterful deception to cover his hidden intolerance.

The daughter is Indian, not African.

 

[Astronuc]

'Rednecks for Obama' want to bridge yawning culture gap
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081009/pl_afp/usvoteobamarednecks

Well - Obama's appeal is widening.

SAINT LOUIS, Missouri (AFP) - When Barack Obama's campaign bus made a swing through Missouri in July, the unlikeliest of supporters were waiting for him -- or rather two of them, holding the banner: "Rednecks for Obama."

In backing the first African-American nominee of a major party for the US presidency, the pair are on a grassroots mission to bridge a cultural gap in the United States and help usher their preferred candidate into the White House.

Tony Viessman, 74, and Les Spencer, 60, got politically active last year when it occurred to them there must be other lower income, rural, beer-drinking, gun-loving, NASCAR race enthusiasts fed up with business as usual in Washington.

Viessman had a red, white and blue "Rednecks for Obama" banner made, and began causing a stir in Missouri, which has emerged as a key battleground in the run-up to the November 4 presidential election.

"I didn't expect it would get as much steam and attention as it's gotten," Spencer told AFP on the campus of Washington University in Saint Louis, the state's biggest city and site of last week's vice-presidential debate.

"We believe in him. He's the best person for the job," Viessman, a former state trooper from Rolla, said of Obama, who met the pair briefly on that July day in Union, Missouri.

The candidate bounded off his bus and jogged back towards a roadside crowd to shake hands with the men holding the banner.

"He said 'This is incredible'," Spencer recalled.

It's been an unexpectedly gratifying run, Viessman said.

Rednecks4obama.com claims more than 800,000 online visits. In Denver, Colorado, Viessman and Spencer drew crowds at the Democratic convention, and at Washington University last Thursday they were two of the most popular senior citizens on campus.
. . .

There is hope for this country.

 

[Astronuc]

Garrison Keillor: One bomb after another
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/09/opinion/edkeillor.php

In Philly, a woman earns $10.30 per hour to care for a man brought down by cystic fibrosis. She bathes and dresses him in the morning, brings him meals, puts him to bed at night. It's hard work lifting him and she has suffered a painful hernia that, because she can't afford health insurance, she can't get fixed, but she still goes to work because he'd be helpless without her.

. . . .

Meanwhile, stunning acts of heroism stand out, such as the fidelity of military lawyers assigned to defend detainees at Guantánamo Bay - uniformed officers faithful to their lawyerly duty to offer a vigorous defense even though it means exposing the injustice of military justice that is rigged for conviction and the mendacity of a commander in chief who commits war crimes.

If your law school is looking for a name for its new library, instead of selling the honor to a fat cat alumnus, you should consider the names of Lieutenant Commander Charles Swift, Lieutenant Colonel Mark Bridges, Colonel Steven David, Lieutenant Colonel Sharon Shaffer, Lieutenant Commander Philip Sundel and Major Michael Mori.

To me, these people exhibit the real American character.

 

[LowlyPion]

The daughter is Indian, not African.

Bangladeshi I think. From a Mother Theresa orphanage he frequently points out.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Mathwonk

Yes, from my reading of that Rolling Stone article someone was kind enough to link, I have come to that conclusion. I'm getting the feeling that he may be a closet racist, unlike Palin who is more overt.

His wife adopting an african child now seems like a masterful deception to cover his hidden intolerance.

mathwonk listed McCains support of religious extremists, his reversal on tortore, the Keating Five scandal, and integrity in general. You brought up racism as a diversion.

 

[LowlyPion]

Interesting video from a Palin rally:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjxzmaXAg9E

At least her supporters are knowledgeable on the issues.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Woohooo! Real Clear Politics has changed Virginia from undecided, to leaning Obama, which puts him at 277 - over the top! - by their count.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

 

[mathwonk]

lowly pion, that video is scary.

but i guess that explains sarah palin's appeal. at least i can believe the people on that video could possibly support her.

it is just sobering to be reminded that people like that vote here and live here.

of course gw got some votes too, but she seems a couple notches down from him in someways.

 

[mathwonk]

don't celebrate yet ivan, it's a long way to november 4.

just compare nobel prize winning al gore to that nincompoop we got instead, and remember how foolish is the us electorate.

 

[WarPhalange]

Meh, it was just the peace prize.

 

[Astronuc]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Virginia hasn't backed a Democrat for president in 44 years, but economic concerns and changing demographics are giving Sen. Barack Obama a chance to steal the once reliably red state from Republicans.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/09/virginia.battleground/index.html

A Virginia Commonwealth University poll taken May 12-18 had McCain leading 47 percent to 39 percent.

But as the financial crisis has shaken voters' confidence in the economy, Obama has begun to open a lead in the state, as he has done in other battleground states.

The latest CNN poll of polls has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 45 percent. A CNN/TIME/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted September 28-30 shows Obama with an even bigger lead over McCain, 53 percent to 44 percent. The CNN poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FWenrdKswE

Bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley endorsed Obama, saying that Obama is concerned about the people, which he seems, but that Obama will cut taxes for average folks, not big business, that Obama will create 5 million new jobs (I wish presidential candidates would not promise things that are beyond their control), and help folks send their kids to college (again there are already institutions that finance college expenses).

I think presidents and candidates should stick to the job description - e.g. Commander in Chief and national security, foreign affairs and trade, and oversight of Congress.

I was concerned to hear a TV reported saying that the group of indepedent voters he was interviewing were wondering how the next president was going to help them pay their bills! It is not the presidents job to help citizens pay their bills. It is every citizens job to get an education that enables them to get a job with which to pay bills - and it is every citizens responsibility to live within their means. If somebody wants more, then they need to work hard to get the necessary education and then the job that pays more.

In health care - the health care system needs fixing - and that means removing unnecessary middle persons who simply add to the overhead. The ordinary citizen needs to maintain a healthy lifestyle so as to preclude the preventable illnesses such as cardio-pulmonary diseases, cancers and in some cases diabetes.

 

[WhoWee]

In case anyone is interested...Obama's complete voting record.

http://www.votesmart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=9490

 

[Ivan Seeking]

don't celebrate yet ivan, it's a long way to november 4.

No doubt, but I don't know if I can take 26 more days of this; esp after watching Lowly Pion's video clip!

 

[LowlyPion]

If we have 26 more days of 7% drops in the market I'm not sure they will be able to hold the election. All the polling places may be foreclosed.

 

[Defennder]

Couldn't you guys vote early or something?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Couldn't you guys vote early or something?

It's not my vote that concerns me.

 

[Astronuc]

Obama buys half-hour of network primetime
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4989SV20081010

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of primetime television on CBS and NBC, sources confirmed Thursday.

The Obama campaign is producing a nationwide pitch to voters that will air on at least two broadcast networks. The ad will run Wednesday, October 29, at 8 p.m. -- less than a week before the November 4 general election.

The direct purchase of such a large block of national airtime right before an election used to be more commonplace before campaigns began to focus their endgame strategies exclusively on battleground states. Such a move is not without precedent in modern presidential politics, however -- Ross Perot did a similar purchase in 1992.

The special is a smart move for the Obama campaign, said Larry Sabato, a political analyst and director of the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia.

"Obama's theme is not just change but unity, so he's appealing to the whole nation rather than a handful of tossup states," Sabato said. "He wants to win the popular vote by a good margin, which will enable him to govern."

. . . .

Sabato appears on NPR and I believe PBS periodically. He's got some good books out.

I wonder if FOX will give McCain equal time. And we're still waiting for Bristol Palin's wedding. She ought not to be forced into it.

 

[Gokul43201]

I wonder if FOX will give McCain equal time.

Obama tried to buy time at Fox, but they said they didn't have that slot free since they would be covering the World Series then.

 

[turbo]

Adding to the dismay over McCain-Palin's linking of Obama to Ayers is William Ibershof - the man who prosecuted the Weather Underground. Of course, the red-faced zealots howling "traitor" at McCain's rallies won't be swayed, but it's nice to know that there are some quiet voices of reason finding their way into the press.

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003873017

 

[Astronuc]

Panic attacks: Voters unload at GOP rallies!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081010/pl_politico/14445

The unmistakable momentum behind Barack Obama's campaign, combined with worry that John McCain is not doing enough to stop it, is ratcheting up fears and frustrations among conservatives.

And nowhere is this emotion on plainer display than at Republican rallies, where voters this week have shouted out insults at the mention of Obama, pleaded with McCain to get more aggressive with the Democrat and generally demonstrated the sort of visceral anger and unease that reflects a party on the precipice of panic.

The calendar is closing and the polls, at least right now, are not.

With McCain passing up the opportunity to level any tough personal shots in his first two debates and the very real prospect of an Obama presidency setting in, the sort of hard-core partisan activists who turn out for campaign events are venting in unusually personal terms.

"Terrorist!” one man screamed Monday at a New Mexico rally after McCain voiced the campaign’s new rhetorical staple aimed at raising doubts about the Illinois senator: “Who is the real Barack Obama?”

"He's a damn liar!” yelled a woman Wednesday in Pennsylvania. "Get him. He's bad for our country." . . . .

These people need psychiatric intervention. I mean really - this is mob psychosis. I have never experienced such hostility from democrats - only republicans.

 

[LowlyPion]

Panic attacks: Voters unload at GOP rallies!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081010/pl_politico/14445
These people need psychiatric intervention. I mean really - this is mob psychosis. I have never experienced such hostility from democrats - only republicans.

There's no question in my mind that the alleged "anger" at the Town Hall yesterday in Wisconsin was coming from planted shills delivering soundbites to energize the base. These events are all staged and to presume otherwise when they so tightly control every detail, including the segregation and isolation of the press would seem to miss the mark.

 

[Astronuc]

There's no question in my mind that the alleged "anger" at the Town Hall yesterday in Wisconsin was coming from planted shills delivering soundbites to energize the base. These events are all staged and to presume otherwise when they so tightly control every detail, including the segregation and isolation of the press would seem to miss the mark.

The fact that a political party goes to those extremes and allows public insults and calls of violence (somebody yelled "Kill him") against a political opponent is very disturbing. This is a rather poor example for democracy.

Given the vitriolic rhetoric, I beginning to wonder if I should expect roving bands of thugs who intimidate members or voters of the other party.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I find it to be so incredibly laughable to see people sooooo angry. Obama hasn't even been around long enough to earn such contempt. They may not like him, but to hate him with such vitriol says much more about the haters than the hated. Simply put, they are mean and nasty if not dangerous people - the core of the base?

No doubt these the same 28% who still like Bush.

As I said in another thread: I think we are seeing the death of the Republican party as we have known it. The Republicans need to purge themselves of these nutjobs who have dominated the party for almost two decades now. David Brooks called Sarah Palin a cancer to the party. Hopefully it is a lethal cancer. She really does represent the end of a road to nowhere.

 

[Evo]

An odd thing CNN noticed when they had that group of undecided voters in Ohio watching the last Presidential Debate. The majority of the people preferred Obama, liked him better, thought he won the debate, then when asked the question "if you had to vote today, who would you vote for?" the MAJORITY of them said McCain. The CNN guy was floored. He said "but you just said you liked him better and thought he gave better answers, but you won't vote for him".

So I wouldn't get all comfortable about Obama trending better in the polls, the proof will be in the actual votes.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

An odd thing CNN noticed when they had that group of undecided voters in Ohio watching the last Presidential Debate. The majority of the people preferred Obama, liked him better, thought he won the debate, then when asked the question "if you had to vote today, who would you vote for?" the MAJORITY of them said McCain. The CNN guy was floored. He said "but you just said you liked him better and thought he gave better answers, but you won't vote for him".

So I wouldn't get all comfortable about Obama trending better in the polls, the proof will be in the actual votes.

It ain't over till it's over, but don't forget, that was a poll. Also, how could they be undecided if they know who will get their vote?

 

[Evo]

It ain't over till it's over, but don't forget, that was a poll. Also, how could they be undecided if they know who will get their vote?

Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group. Also, it was a show of hands based on who *now* they would actually vote for.

Who do you approve of more? - Obama
Who do you like better? - Obama
Who won the debate? - Obama
Who are you voting for (if you had to vote right now)? - McCain

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group.

So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.

 

[Evo]

So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.

Same difference, if the majority of the people that claim to be undecided already have decided, it just means that there are not as many real "undecided" voters out there. And if the majority have actually already decided on McCain, it's pretty scary because it's not being reflected in all of these polls everyone is looking at. There was a a good article recently talking about this issue. I wish I could find it.

 

[LowlyPion]

So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.

Not necessarily the case.

It could be simply because he's black.

And with plenty of fear afoot in the markets an appeal to the fear of what's different may be what they hope to tap in to. They are dead in the water on issues.

It's despicable that they would seek to win in such a way, but look at the video of those at the Palin Rally.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The CNN poll of polls today has Obama up by another point at 49-42.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Not necessarily the case.

It could be simply because he's black.

He was black last week as well. That didn't first come out in the debate.

And with plenty of fear afoot in the markets an appeal to the fear of what's different may be what they hope to tap in to. They are dead in the water on issues.

It's despicable that they would seek to win in such a way, but look at the video of those at the Palin Rally.

Well, it is nothing new.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Same difference, if the majority of the people that claim to be undecided already have decided, it just means that there are not as many real "undecided" voters out there. And if the majority have actually already decided on McCain, it's pretty scary because it's not being reflected in all of these polls everyone is looking at. There was a a good article recently talking about this issue. I wish I could find it.

I certainly understand your point, but good polls seek to eliminate this sort of uncertainty. It all depends on how the participants were chosen.

 

[LowlyPion]

He was black last week as well. That didn't first come out in the debate.

True enough, but the appeal to fear, in fearful times may be what they are trying to tap into. Until they cast their vote ... nothing is sure.

McCain is totally without honor. A loathsome hypocrite for all of his talk about running a clean campaign.

 

[Evo]

I certainly understand your point, but good polls seek to eliminate this sort of uncertainty. It all depends on how the participants were chosen.

It was CNN, I'm sure they're pretty good. And it wasn't a poll, it was a group of voters in a room with CNN where they were discussing the debate.

 

[LowlyPion]

Oddly I think if the market recovers some, that will be helpful to Obama.

I think once the sense of freefall is removed the fear to tap into will lessen.

 

[Astronuc]

Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group. Also, it was a show of hands based on who *now* they would actually vote for.

Who do you approve of more? - Obama
Who do you like better? - Obama
Who won the debate? - Obama
Who are you voting for (if you had to vote right now)? - McCain

I'm not sure how one would correct for that uncertainty. Basically one has to assume a fraction of white people are uncomfortable voting for a black person, but likely will not say that openly.

McCain losing ground with working-class whites
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/ap_on_el_pr/working_class_voters

While talk in these parts is mostly about the economy, a prominent — if not unspoken subtext — is race. A study of the impact of racial attitudes on the election conducted by The Associated Press with Yahoo News and Stanford University found that whites without a college education were much more likely to hold negative views of blacks than those with a college education.

I worked for one summer at an oil refinery back in the late 70's. During breaks and at lunch people would separate into groups - black males downstairs, women (mixed) in the middle, and white males upstairs. Both groups of males played dominoes, but they were different games. I think that kind of racial segregation persists. From what I observe, most whites can comfortably work with black colleagues, but are a little uncomfortable working for a black superior - and maybe that's what some see in Obama.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It was CNN, I'm sure they're pretty good. And it wasn't a poll, it was a group of voters in a room with CNN where they were discussing the debate.

It was a small poll and a very unscientific one. For example, how many were afraid to admit in public that they would support a black man?

Anyway, we know that there is some percentage of racial bias; it is all a matter of how much, and also how many blacks will vote that normally wouldn't. It will also vary State by State.

There was one Cafferty viewer from Texas who said that he was actually afraid to admit that he's voting for Obama. I've noticed this with people around here as well. Obama supporters tend to fish and try to get a read on my vote before admitting that they will vote for Obama. One guy even looked relieved when I indicated the same.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Here you go Evo; a reason for you to like Ron Paul: According to the Governer of Montana, Ron Paul could cost McCain the State.

 

[Evo]

Here you go Evo; a reason for you to like Ron Paul: According to the Governer of Montana, Ron Paul could cost McCain the State.

I did say before that I would approve of him costing the election.

 

[Astronuc]

Missouri
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081010/ts_alt_afp/usvotebattlegroundsmissouri

ST. LOUIS, Missouri (AFP) - With the 2008 presidential election boiling down to a handful of battleground states, the tightest race of all has emerged in Missouri, the most accurate political bellwether state in US history.

The campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain are taking a no-holds-barred approach to the midwestern "Show Me" state, and with good reason; Missourians have voted for the presidential winner in all but one election since 1904.

With such imposing history dictating outsized attention for the state, Republican McCain made two stops in Missouri in late September while Democrat Obama earlier launched a bus tour of the state's Republican stronghold southwest.

Officials from both parties concede the campaigns are pouring resources into the state in a mad dash for Missouri's 11 electoral votes.

The candidates have blitzed the state with political ads, with Obama reportedly spending six million dollars on media advertising and McCain close on his heels with 5.5 million.

Missouri's vote is on a knife edge, and recent major polls have toggled back and forth; Thursday's average of recent polls by independent website Realclearpolitics.com shows McCain at 47.8 percent and Obama at 47.4 in Missouri. The previous day it was Obama 47.8, McCain 47.5.

It will be interesting on election night.

 

[Astronuc]

Rich Karlgaard (Forbes) says he's impressed with the strength of Asian leaders in this campaign year. Kalrgaard offers some thoughts on McCain and Obama.

http://www.forbes.com/video/?video=fvn/talkback/rk_vlog092908

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ed Rollins, CNN pundit and Republican campaign consultant and advisor, announced today that this race is over. He said that the only question now is how McCain wants to be remembered.

But don't get me wrong: Get out the vote and vote, vote, vote! The trend lines mean nothing if you don't do what you will...won't have done what you will...

 

[Astronuc]

Obama notes McCain's effort to temper GOP comments
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081011/ap_on_el_pr/obama

. . . .
"I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other," Obama told supporters in Philadelphia. He said McCain "has served this country with honor, and he deserves our thanks for that."

. . . he called Obama "a decent, family man."

McCain drew boos at the same event when he told a supporter who expressed fear at the prospect of Obama's election that the Democrat is a "person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States."

I admire McCain for that. It would great if we could more political campaigns away from aggressive attacks and character assassination. It does harm the electorate.

 

[WhoWee]

This election has become far too emotional...and compounded by the economy. If you haven't noticed...I prefer to over-simplify and make comparisons...anytime you make a big financial decision based upon emotions...the risk of possibility of a favorable outcome increases.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama notes McCain's effort to temper GOP comments
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081011/ap_on_el_pr/obama
I admire McCain for that. It would great if we could more political campaigns away from aggressive attacks and character assassination. It does harm the electorate.

Of course his commercials asserting a terrorist connection to Obama, are still running.