News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%
  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%
  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • Total voters
    32
  • #331
TheStatutoryApe said:
I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.
Actually Obama gave a time frame of 16 months to start (I think) withdrawals. I definitely remember 16 months.
 
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  • #332
LowlyPion said:
After carefully listening to the debate, and of course totally discounting and laying aside any mild bias that I may possibly have harbored prior to the debate, I thought that Obama did the far better job.

McCain was petulant, disdainful, not always answering the question directly and tended to ramble. What a sour loser.

If Obama was to be faulted it was perhaps for being a little too gracious and diplomatic and maybe even could have been more provocative in needling McCain. But his account of things seemed the more reasoned.
McCain is being faulted for talking about the past. There was very little about the future, too much about talking about "the way it was", "what I remember".
 
  • #333
Evo said:
Both came off very well, but I've got to say that Obama completely changed my impression of him tonight. I never cared for Obama, never thought he was that great at speaking, but tonight, he was awesome. He was to the point and had great, focused statements.

So, I take back any reservations on Obama that I had, tonight won me over. He is the only choice.

Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?

Astronuc, after all of your rants and screaming and tirades on here, have you changed your mind? I've notice that you don't seem to have a side in this anymore. I know you can't vote, but I noticed a change.

Yeah , he had that " forward " - moving on with what matters - agenda about him that really came on display while McCain was constantly ridiculing him on naivety all the while alluding to his infinite wisdom and appearing disgusted by Obama. I found this aspect of McCain disturbing and dispicable. He never faced Obama during the debate to acknowledge him. If I was Obama I may have just went on a verbal tirade by being immensely annoyed by him. McCain played the self righteous game - throwing stuff at Obama while wrapping himself in delusion - and I hate him for this ... While Obama maintained composure and kept his head.
 
  • #334
TheStatutoryApe said:
I was disappointed in the way Obama spoke about Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain made the proper point that regardless of whether Iraq was a good idea in the first place or not the next president will have to deal with the fallout. Obama simply continued to criticize the original decision. I'm bothered that he doesn't seem to want to discuss in a clear fashion what he thinks ought to be done. What bothers me more is that he kept talking about Afghanistan and sending more troops there. He seemed to be invoking the desire for vengence and probably for little other reason than to show he is not 'soft' and will support military actions. "...and kill Osama bin Laden" was probably the worst part of what he said.

I tend to agree that Obama could have made better position statements on Iraq/Afghanistan and not have dwelled so heavily on "getting Osama", but then I think I need to consider the debate was for a broad slice of Americans, including those that have possibly snickered at the Obama bin Biden bumper stickers. Being tough on Osama. Tough on Muslim Extremists is likely an important base that he needs to touch.
 
  • #335
Evo said:
Actually Obama gave a time frame of 16 months to start (I think) withdrawals. I definitely remember 16 months.

I know he wants to pull out. McCain says he wants to pull out too but only when it is safe to do so. He says he wants to 'win'. Obama never gave any reason why his plan, if one exists, is preferable to McCain's. He never tried to draw McCain out on what he plans to do other than 'win'. Rather it seemed to me that McCain was drawing Obama out. He just deflected it and distracted with talk of Afghanistan.

I'm just criticizing because I like him and expect better than that.
 
  • #336
The first thing I thought of when I heard Obama mention about getting Osama and taking the eyes off the ball on Afghanistan and onto Iraq was "Didn't Kerry say the same thing 4 years ago in the first debate? "
 
  • #337
Interesting on CNN, with a group of "undecided' voters in Ohio, 64% gave the debate to Obama.
 
  • #338
The Republicans are trying to spin it that because Obama agreed with some of McCain's points and McCain didn't agree with any of his, that it was a great victory. I think that is a rather stunning calculus, as if choosing something arbitrary like say the number of prepositional phrases had anything to do with the power of the arguments.
 
  • #339
LowlyPion said:
The Republicans are trying to spin it that because Obama agreed with some of McCain's points and McCain didn't agree with any of his, that it was a great victory. I think that is a rather stunning calculus, as if choosing something arbitrary like say the number of prepositional phrases had anything to do with the power of the arguments.
It's a common tactic to say you agree with an opponent in order to not alienate those that agree with your opponent, then say how you disagree. I have been through years of training on how to debate and negotiate, this is Negotiation 101.
 
  • #340
Evo said:
It's a common tactic to say you agree with an opponent in order to not alienate those that agree with your opponent, then say how you disagree. I have been through years of training on how to debate and negotiate, this is Negotiation 101.

Yes, and in particular I think he is trying to appeal to the undecided independents who are looking for someone who is willing to work across the aisle. I also think McCain missed the boat on this one. McCain was trying to drive the point of experience but instead appeared condescending. That will appeal to McCain's base but apparently not many of the undecided voters.
 
  • #341
CNN's poll of polls has Obama up by 48-43 today [pre-debate].

With Michigan and Penn now listed as leaning Obama [up by at least 7%], the CNN electoral map shows Obama 240, McCain 200. The rest are within the margin of error for the polls. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
 
  • #342
Evo said:
...Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?...
No, he wants to cut us loose from the employer based tax break and the employer playing doctor. You get a personal tax break instead.

The employer based health care deduction is the primary reason for out of control health costs in the US. The US starting doing this by accident in WWII as consequence of war wage and price controls. Because of this, most people on employer plans don't know or care about the true cost of most medical services. At my recent employer which had good health plans, the full PPO family plans ran $20k/yr, with 1/2 - 2/3 of that paid by the employer. As a sometime consultant I keep an eye on private plans: MSA same plan/insurer w/ high deductible runs ~60% less. I found most people w/ the big employer were unaware of the total cost. The key to fixing health care is to bring the costs down, coverage is secondary (coverage <> health care).

Pre-existing or chronic illnesses are an issue and that has to be fixed as employers are cut loose from playing doctor. McCain proposes GAPs:
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/19ba2f1c-c03f-4ac2-8cd5-5cf2edb527cf.htm
A Specific Plan of Action: Ensuring Care for Higher Risk Patients

John McCain's Plan Cares For The Traditionally Uninsurable. John McCain understands that those without prior group coverage and those with pre-existing conditions have the most difficulty on the individual market, and we need to make sure they get the high-quality coverage they need.

John McCain Will Work With States To Establish A Guaranteed Access Plan. As President, John McCain will work with governors to develop a best practice model that states can follow - a Guaranteed Access Plan or GAP - that would reflect the best experience of the states to ensure these patients have access to health coverage. One approach would establish a nonprofit corporation that would contract with insurers to cover patients who have been denied insurance and could join with other state plans to enlarge pools and lower overhead costs. There would be reasonable limits on premiums, and assistance would be available for Americans below a certain income level.

I understand many people would like to keep things just the way they are w/ their employer tax free plans, but it is an untenable situation. Costs are growing exponentially, and not just because of the aging population and not just because of new expensive technology. They are growing because the health care receiver doesn't pay the provider. That has parallels with the subprime problem at hand: bundled and resold mortgages where the mortgage buyer down the line didn't actually know what it was worth. So either we fix the cost problem or as masses of people fall off unaffordable plans the government will be forced to nationalize the whole thing. Choose your poison.

Edit: Health Affairs came out this month w/ an eval of both plans: McCain will cut health costs, Obama will drive them up, Obama will get more people covered.
 
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  • #343
Evo said:
Interesting on CNN, with a group of "undecided' voters in Ohio, 64% gave the debate to Obama.

I was just watching the debate again on CNN with the dynamic + or - responses shown. It appears that the Independents and the Democrats were trending the same more than not. The gap between the Dems and Inds is almost always smaller than the gap between the Reps and Inds. And the moment McCain mentioned Palin - indirectly - the Independents dropped like a rock, just slightly behind the Dems.
 
  • #344
mheslep said:
No, he wants to cut us loose from the employer based tax break and the employer playing doctor. You get a personal tax break instead.
That's what McCain says. Here is what he's really planning.

Adrenaline had originally posted this, she's a doctor.

adrenaline said:
Does anyone else think this is a bad idea?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/opinion/16herbert.html?hp

A study coming out Tuesday from scholars at Columbia, Harvard, Purdue and Michigan projects that 20 million Americans who have employment-based health insurance would lose it under the McCain plan.



For starters, the McCain health plan would treat employer-paid health benefits as income that employees would have to pay taxes on.

“It means your employer is going to have to make an estimate on how much the employer is paying for health insurance on your behalf, and you are going to have to pay taxes on that money,” said Sherry Glied, an economist who chairs the Department of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

According to the study: “The McCain plan will force millions of Americans into the weakest segment of the private insurance system — the nongroup market — where cost-sharing is high, covered services are limited and people will lose access to benefits they have now.”

The net effect of the plan, the study said, “almost certainly will be to increase family costs for medical care.”
 
  • #345
Evo said:
Just on health care alone, Obama is the only choice. McCain's tax credit for Americans to "shop around" is insane. Obviously he has no idea what getting health insurance is like. He is apparently oblivious to the fact that if you have a pre-existing condition, you will be virtually unable to get health insurance to cover it at any cost. McCain is clueless on health insurance. And he wants to tax my health insurance?
I agree with this assessment. When McCain talks about tax credits for health insurance, he doesn't seem to get it that those who can't afford health insurance also don't pay much in the way of taxes - because their incomes are too low.

There are about 47 million Americans without health insurance (I wonder if that includes illegal aliens and migrant workers).
http://www.nchc.org/facts/coverage.shtml

The emphasis needs to be on 'prevention' rather than treatment, which can be way too expensive.


Obama was correct on the privatization of Medicare/Medicaid. The private companies are making millions, and the elderly (based on family experience) are underserved or ill-served in some (many) cases.
 
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  • #346


A significant Obamaward swing in some of the maps, following bailout week:

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code:
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
 
  • #347
I could see 55% of the popular vote for Obama and 45% for McCain, but I would not be surprised if it went 60/40 Obama/McCain.
 
  • #348
Ivan Seeking said:
... but instead appeared condescending. That will appeal to McCain's base but apparently not many of the undecided voters.

Oh it was like tossing puppy kibble to the 101 Dalmatians. They were lapping that stuff up on Fox. But I think I could see the sad realizations in the eyes of the Fox Anchors that they don't really believe this, because McCain is like already used spit to the real conservatives, who really only have lust in their hearts for Palin, and Obama, even to them, didn't sound all that unPresidential.
 
  • #349
LowlyPion said:
and Obama, even to them, didn't sound all that unPresidential.

I noticed that Obama was doing well with Republicans a number of times in the dynamic trending. And the pundits were saying exactly the same thing. Even to the Republican pundits, Obama looked Presidential.
 
  • #350
Ivan Seeking said:
I noticed that Obama was doing well with Republicans a number of times in the dynamic trending. And the pundits were saying exactly the same thing. Even to the Republican pundits, Obama looked Presidential.

Coming on the heels as it did of the disastrous McCain ploy to dramatically return to Washington to pose for his portrait as the executive in charge, sabotaging the bailout that was on track to get things done, all in the name of partisan aggrandizement, McCain was already on the fast track to looking decidedly Un-Presidential before he even arrived in Oxford.

While he didn't drool or misplace any global hemisphere's in the debate, he looked to me more irascible and irritated - that the grand script the Republican handlers had plotted for his trajectory had gone awry - than he was engaged in the issues or inspiring to the Nation beyond of course to the Conservative base.

With so many divisive issues facing the country from Foreign policy to economic developments to energy security, Obama was the one that inspired some degree of confidence that he would make sound decisions, seeking compromise and consensus, in place of the ideologically popular choices that the current administration has employed.
 
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  • #351
Code:
in place of the ideologically popular choices that the current administration has employed.
' popular' may not be the most accurate word here.

'rammed down the throats' may work as a substitute. :)
 
  • #352
Senate sends big spending bill to Bush to sign
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080927/ap_on_go_co/congress_spending
WASHINGTON - Automakers gained $25 billion in taxpayer-subsidized loans and oil companies won elimination of a long-standing ban on drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts as the Senate passed a sprawling spending bill Saturday.

The 78-12 vote sent the $634 billion measure to President Bush, who was expected to sign it even though it spends more money and contains more pet projects than he would have liked.

The measure is needed to keep the government operating beyond the current budget year, which ends Tuesday. As a result, the legislation is one of the few bills this election year that simply must pass. Bush's signature would mean Congress could avoid a lame-duck session after the Nov. 4 election.

White House spokesman Tony Fratto said the bill "stands as a reminder of the failure of the Democratic Congress to fund the government in regular order." But, he said, it "puts the United States one step closer to ending our dependence on foreign sources of energy" by lifting the offshore drilling ban and opening up huge reserves of oil shale in the West.

The Pentagon is in line for a record budget. In addition to $70 billion approved this summer for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Defense Department would receive $488 billion, a 6 percent increase. The spending bill also offers aid to victims of flooding in the Midwest and recent hurricanes across the Gulf Coast.

Such a huge bill usually would dominate the end-of-session agenda on Capitol Hill. But it went below the radar screen because attention focused on the congressional bailout of Wall Street.
. . . .

Taxpayers for Common Sense, a watchdog group, discovered 2,322 pet projects totaling $6.6 billion. That included 2,025 in the defense portion alone that cost a total of $4.9 billion. Critics of such "earmarks" promise to scrutinize them in coming weeks and months for links to lobbyists and campaign contributions.

Earmarks dot omnibus spending bill
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/09/26/Earmarks_dot_omnibus_spending_bill/UPI-41981222434637/

Taxpayers for Common Sense said the senator who sought the most pet projects was Alaska Republican Ted Stevens -- on trial for allegedly failing to disclose more than $250,000 in gifts and home renovations. Stevens requested 39 projects totaling $238.5 million, The New York Times reported yesterday.
 
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  • #353
Last edited:
  • #354
Astronuc said:
I agree with this assessment. When McCain talks about tax credits for health insurance, he doesn't seem to get it that those who can't afford health insurance also don't pay much in the way of taxes - because their incomes are too low.

There are about 47 million Americans without health insurance (I wonder if that includes illegal aliens and migrant workers).
http://www.nchc.org/facts/coverage.shtml
Yes that figure includes: illegal aliens, those that qualify for medicaid but never sign up, twenty somethings that can easily afford coverage but still choose not to buy, and those that that don't qualify for government help but still can't afford insurance (pre-existing/chronic).

Numbers on the breakdown:
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1636972&postcount=37
 
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  • #355
mheslep, do you currently have employer healthcare? Have you ever had to try to get health care insurance in the private market? I have. What experience do you have with getting private health insurance? Do you have a pre-exisiting health condition that prevents you from getting private health insurance (my mother does) and I have had to deal with that financially. Do you understand the difference between group health coverage (relatively inexpenseve) and non-group health coverage (very expensive) offers fewer choices, less coverage, higher deductibles, more out of pocket expenses, no cap on catastrophic medical expenses, and poorer health care options.

I can tell you that McCain's plan is disastrous for the average American.
 
  • #356
Evo said:
mheslep, do you currently have employer healthcare?
Yes, heavy PPO family plan w/ dependents. ~$20k/yr, employer pays ~60%.
Have you ever had to try to get health care insurance in the private market. I have. What experience do you have with getting private health insurance?
Yes. Years ago was self employed, used a small business group plan, and more recently I stay on top of quotes for high deductible HSAs. Same exact plan, same insurer as my PPO above but ~half the cost including the cost of the deductible. Just ran it again: $2870/yr + $7500 deductible = $10370, same exact coverage/insurer. As you can see, the HSA plan is much preferable IF I could get my employer to pay me the benefit directly as salary rather than as health care. This point comes up often in my company as there are many that have prior experience as self-employed.
https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/ehi/individual-health-insurance.fs
Do you have a pre-exisiting health condition that prevents you from getting private health insurance (my mother does) and I have had to deal with that financially.
Well I hope your mother gets all the care she needs. If your mother is retired, I assume we're not talking about employer based plans in this case? If so, how is that relevant to McCain's plan and this discussion? Doesn't Medicare help out?

...

I can tell you that McCain's plan is disastrous for the average American
Yes I know, he's 'insane', 'clueless', etc.
 
  • #357
Astronuc said:
I could see 55% of the popular vote for Obama and 45% for McCain, but I would not be surprised if it went 60/40 Obama/McCain.
I would be shocked if Obama won by 10%. And if nothing disastrous happens over the next month, I will not believe the numbers if they say Obama won by 20%.
 
  • #358
Gokul43201 said:
I would be shocked if Obama won by 10%. And if nothing disastrous happens over the next month, I will not believe the numbers if they say Obama won by 20%.

I'm looking for a 60/40 split in the electoral map. 10% in the popular vote wouldn't surprise me at all, but I'm not counting on it.
 
  • #359
Bush binges; Obama or McCain will pay
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14027.html

The focus right now – and probably for many months to come – is the bailout binge aimed at saving our financial system. All told, the government will likely put more than $1 trillion on the line (with hope the money will be recouped down the road).

Then there are the two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. The combined cost is fast approaching $1 trillion, too – and both will eat up the time and budgets of the next president.

Then there is also the prescription drug benefit Bush added to Medicare. It carries a projected price tag of nearly $700 billion over ten years and serves as a powerful reminder of how big – untenably big, many experts say – our entitlement programs have grown.

None of that spending was cooked into the federal budget when Bush took office eight years ago, leaving a budgetary hole almost too deep to comprehend. It will tie the hands of President McCain or President Obama in ways neither candidate has reckoned with yet on the campaign trail.

It’s really a federal fiscal catastrophe in coming years,” says Chris Edwards of the Cato Institute, a libertarian-oriented think tank. “With all this stuff coming up now, it’s massive, big decisions the next president is going to have to make.”
. . .
How can you cut taxes when the government is so deep in the red? The budget deficit is projected to top $400 billion – and that was before the bailout.

How can you expand health care coverage when the country is broke? The federal debt is now expected to top $11 trillion by 2010.

How can you focus on “earmarks” and “waste” when everyone knows they make up a meaningless fraction of the federal budget?

. . . .
What about the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - another $500 billion during the next 4 years?
 
  • #360
Interesting piece discussing who the real John McCain is.
http://www.salon.com/books/review/2008/09/29/mccain/index.html
 
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