News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #1,151
Voting has begun at Dixsville Notch, NH.

So far then it's McCain 6 - Obama 15 in a landslide so far.

Dixville once went 9 - 0 for Nixon in the 1960 election.
 
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  • #1,152
It appears that there are some good things being done outside of the spotlights.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aZBMZ0OU26uw&refer=home
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg)
Bush Praised By Both Parties for Transition Planning (Update2)

By Edwin Chen
 
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  • #1,153
Joe the Plumber seems to have been dropped from the show since he didn't show up at a rally. In Joe's defense, reportedly, he had promised to show up somewhere between 10 AM, and 4 PM.
 
  • #1,154
OMG ALASKA

http://www.haysresearch.com/OC110208.htm

McCain/Palin 46.6%
Obama/Biden 43.9%
 
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  • #1,155
Ivan Seeking said:
Joe the Plumber seems to have been dropped from the show since he didn't show up at a rally. In Joe's defense, reportedly, he had promised to show up somewhere between 10 AM, and 4 PM.

:smile:
 
  • #1,156
Here's something I'd never seen before:
Trick or treat -- McCain or Obama?
Calgary boy, 11, tackles U.S. vote
Cailynn Klingbeil, Calgary Herald
Published: Sunday, November 02, 2008

When Davis Fader went trick-or-treating Friday night, he greeted those who answered the door with a most unusual costume -- and question.

"Place your vote, McCain or Obama?" asked the 11-year-old.

Dressed as a polling booth, Davis surveyed his northwest Calgary neighbours on how they'd vote in Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.


Obama won 45 pieces of candy to McCains 5.

In another troubling related story:

http://www.pubdef.net/2008/11/01/video-a-voting-booth-halloween-costume/

The 9 year old from Decatur Georgia said Obama got 111 pieces of candy and McCain got 27. But the best candy was received from the McCain camp. The largest piece appeared to be a 1 pound snickers bar!

The child was also noted to be a left wing socialist as he was actually willing to share his candy with the news crew at the end of the interview.

Now here is the worst part:
The video actually shows people under the age of 18 voting.
And many adults were shown voting more than once!

So this contest will most likely end up in the supreme court as did the one back in 2001.
 
  • #1,157
Watch for the margin in Palm Beach + Miami-Dade + Broward counties (FL).

Margin < 300,000 for Obama => hope for McCain.

That will likely be the earliest indicator or the way things are going.
 
  • #1,158
Obama still campaigning today in Indiana. He's taking nothing for granted.
 
  • #1,159
Only fifty pieces of candy? They need to man up and trick or treat longer in Calgary
 
  • #1,160
LightbulbSun said:
Obama still campaigning today in Indiana. He's taking nothing for granted.

I should hope not.

If Indiana goes for him at the early close or even goes to too close to call that may be the clearest indication that there is a positive Obama undercurrent.
 
  • #1,161


The pollsters' final say on some battleground states:

Statewise Margins (Obama - McCain):
Code: 
               AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                
                                                                 
State     RCP   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A   Pollster  

  IN     -1.4       -2         -3        -1.2       
  FL     +4.4       +1         +1        +1.6       
  GA     -4.0       -3         -3        -2.9
  VA     +4.4       +4         +6        +5.6
  NC     -0.4       +1         00        +0.4
  OH     +2.5       +3         +3        +3.1
  MO     -0.7       00         00        +1.1
  PA     +7.3       +8         +9        +7.2
  ND                           +1        -0.7
  MT     -3.8       -4         -2        -2.2
  CO     +5.5       +6         +7        +7.6        
  AZ     -3.5       -4         -4        -4.9
  NV     +6.8       +6         +6        +7.1

The polling aggregates seem to be pretty tight, with FL showing the widest distribution. Let's see how close they turn out.
 
  • #1,162
I am no longer in the uncommitted category. I admit that I was leaning just a smidge toward Obama. (I suspect that there are those that might have detected a certain hint in my posts, even as I may not have been fully aware.)

Ultimately the vision of the 3 Musketeers Bush Cheney and Rove hoisting tankards of ale to McCain and the vacuous Palin, shouting "No. We are the Real Americans" was just too much to contemplate.

So I cast my vote.

I even got a sticker that says "My Vote Counted".

Let's hope.
 
  • #1,163
As a side note, there were people with placards for various candidates outside the polling place, but not a one of them was for McCain/Palin. Maybe they overslept?
 
  • #1,164
Sarah Palin was on the news having just voted along with first dude. She sounded slightly nasal and sorrowful, like maybe she was even crying. But after machine-gunning out a few poorly constructed run-on sentences peppered with superfluous also's and there's, she seemed to perk herself back up into Ms. Congeniality mode.

If she was really crying then I guess that it must be difficult. But if she was, all I can think is better her than me.
 
  • #1,165
LowlyPion said:
Sarah Palin was on the news having just voted along with first dude. She sounded slightly nasal and sorrowful, like maybe she was even crying. But after machine-gunning out a few poorly constructed run-on sentences peppered with superfluous also's and there's, she seemed to perk herself back up into Ms. Congeniality mode.

If she was really crying then I guess that it must be difficult. But if she was, all I can think is better her than me.

Why do I have a funny feeling that she pulled the lever for Obama?
 
  • #1,166
LowlyPion said:
As a side note, there were people with placards for various candidates outside the polling place, but not a one of them was for McCain/Palin. Maybe they overslept?

Um...isn't that illegal to advertise for candidates at the polling place? Maybe you didn't see the McCain voters because they are the ones with important responsibilities that keep them from skipping work and voted early in the morning before work or will vote after work. Or, maybe they're just sick of the rabid Obamaniacs. I do still find immense humor every time I see someone driving a massive SUV with an Obama sticker on it though. Maybe they really do believe they can fuel it with hope and dreams of change.
 
  • #1,167
Moonbear said:
Maybe you didn't see the McCain voters because they are the ones with important responsibilities that keep them from skipping work and voted early in the morning before work or will vote after work.

Yes, only McCain voters have real jobs. :rolleyes:

We're not just a little biased against Democrats, are we?

Maybe McCain voters are just too lazy. That is another possiblity. .
 
  • #1,168
Moonbear said:
Um...isn't that illegal to advertise for candidates at the polling place? Maybe you didn't see the McCain voters because they are the ones with important responsibilities that keep them from skipping work and voted early in the morning before work or will vote after work. Or, maybe they're just sick of the rabid Obamaniacs. I do still find immense humor every time I see someone driving a massive SUV with an Obama sticker on it though. Maybe they really do believe they can fuel it with hope and dreams of change.

No. All placards were outside the proscribed distance from the polling place.

But as to the McCain supporters, if they have important jobs then they must be living in other states. I haven't seen a McCain Palin yard sign driving around anywhere here - not even in the primaries, and I voted for McCain at that time. It wasn't like I've had blinders on.

And btw I drive an SUV. But it does get 25+mpg highway.
 
  • #1,169
LowlyPion said:
Sarah Palin was on the news having just voted along with first dude. She sounded slightly nasal and sorrowful, like maybe she was even crying. But after machine-gunning out a few poorly constructed run-on sentences peppered with superfluous also's and there's, she seemed to perk herself back up into Ms. Congeniality mode.

If she was really crying then I guess that it must be difficult. But if she was, all I can think is better her than me.

They had the Obama's voting on the morning news...both Michelle and Barack side-by-side with their daughter standing in between looking HORRIBLY bored by the whole process. He seemed to be puzzled several times, and at one point, actually leaned over and looked at what Michelle was doing! I don't care if she's his wife, what the hell was he doing peeking into someone else's voting booth? Maybe he was worried she would vote for McCain? :smile: But, seriously, what was up with that? How was that allowed? I have to admit, I preferred when the polls had curtains around them so nobody wandering past could peek over your shoulder.

Anyway, I got bored of watching them looking puzzled and marking a ballot for what seemed like forever, but I was trying to figure out if there was something wrong with the ballot that he was having a hard time with it, or was he that uncertain of his choices for other offices that he needed that long to make them?

Again, that would have been better done if there was a curtain around the booth, and the news crews did some editing. Just show him entering the voting booth, get a shot of his legs under a curtain, cut away for some commentary or another short story, and then return to show him stepping out of the booth smiling...y'know, like the old days. Nobody needs to watch 10 minutes of them punching holes, or drawing lines, or pushing buttons, or whatever they were doing at their location.
 
  • #1,170
Kind of off topic, but the current anchor on MSNBC right now is smoking hot.
 
  • #1,171
Moonbear said:
They had the Obama's voting on the morning news...both Michelle and Barack side-by-side with their daughter standing in between looking HORRIBLY bored by the whole process. He seemed to be puzzled several times, and at one point, actually leaned over and looked at what Michelle was doing! I don't care if she's his wife, what the hell was he doing peeking into someone else's voting booth? Maybe he was worried she would vote for McCain? :smile: But, seriously, what was up with that? How was that allowed? I have to admit, I preferred when the polls had curtains around them so nobody wandering past could peek over your shoulder.

Anyway, I got bored of watching them looking puzzled and marking a ballot for what seemed like forever, but I was trying to figure out if there was something wrong with the ballot that he was having a hard time with it, or was he that uncertain of his choices for other offices that he needed that long to make them?

Again, that would have been better done if there was a curtain around the booth, and the news crews did some editing. Just show him entering the voting booth, get a shot of his legs under a curtain, cut away for some commentary or another short story, and then return to show him stepping out of the booth smiling...y'know, like the old days. Nobody needs to watch 10 minutes of them punching holes, or drawing lines, or pushing buttons, or whatever they were doing at their location.

I think there are a couple of referendum issues on the Cook County ballot, not to mention the local elections where they live. If I hadn't read the ballot issues on my ballot I could have finished in less than 15 seconds, but being a thoughtful citizen I had a second thought about one of the initiatives because it had been misrepresented in the advertising against it and even though I thought I had decided, I took a moment to reflect on it.

Just because they may have lingered a moment, ... so what.

That they brought their daughters, is probably something they will appreciate in later years even if they do not now. But what the heck. They probably weren't all mad about things. They got to ditch their morning school hanging with their Dad.
 
  • #1,172
If my office is any indication, Missouri will go to Obama. Out of 150 people, only two are voting McCain, one of them is a Young Earth Creationist, and we think the other is also, but he doesn't go around saying things like "dinosaurs are a Darwinist conspiracy". :-p
 
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  • #1,173
LightbulbSun said:
Kind of off topic, but the current anchor on MSNBC right now is smoking hot.

Are you talking about Tom Brokaw? Or Chuck Todd?
 
  • #1,174
LowlyPion said:
Are you talking about Tom Brokaw? Or Chuck Todd?

Neither. I was talking about the woman anchor on from the 11:00-12:00 hour.
 
  • #1,178
LightbulbSun said:
Why do I have a funny feeling that she pulled the lever for Obama?

Here is the feed of her having just voted. Right about the "I'm just Sarah from Alaska" line she kind of choked up and had Todd say something before she cracked any more.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/

The rest of it is interesting because she goes on to proclaim her exoneration for the ethics violation. Except of course she technically did violate the law, regardless of the "independent" counsel SHE hired to clear herself of her own charge against herseslf.
 
  • #1,179
If the stock market is any indication-its up-Obama might be leading.
 
  • #1,181
The last set of polls shows Obama taking a last minute jump to an average 51.9% of the popular vote.
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/03 -- -- 51.9 44.4 Obama +7.5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
 
  • #1,182
boy I am glad you weren't watching me vote. i took lots longer than that to read all that stuff. like initiatives to let school boards siphon off school funds and give them to developers. we have a school funding system which does not require voter approval - they just set their own funding rate every year -

so since that is the only thing that does not need approval, there is an attempt to transfer those pre-approved monies to other purposes that would require approval, if things were done properly.

there's lots of tricky stuff like that on there to take money from taxpayers.

but most important, being an old person with poor vision, and aware of snafus in florida in 2000, i looked about 4 times to be sure i was not voting for the wrong guy!
 
  • #1,183
Evo said:
If my office is any indication, Missouri will go to Obama. Out of 150 people, only two are voting McCain, one of them is a Young Earth Creationist, and we think the other is also, but he doesn't go around saying things like "dinosaurs are a Darwinist conspiracy". :-p

Well, you tell him that, if Obama doesn't win, we Darwinists are going to sic the dinosaurs on him!
 
  • #1,184
If McCain can't win Penn, the race is over. The last polls show Obama ahead by an average of 7.3% in Penn.
 
  • #1,185
mathwonk said:
boy I am glad you weren't watching me vote. i took lots longer than that to read all that stuff. like initiatives to let school boards siphon off school funds and give them to developers. we have a school funding system which does not require voter approval - they just set their own funding rate every year -

so since that is the only thing that does not need approval, there is an attempt to transfer those pre-approved monies to other purposes that would require approval, if things were done properly.

there's lots of tricky stuff like that on there to take money from taxpayers.

but most important, being an old person with poor vision, and aware of snafus in florida in 2000, i looked about 4 times to be sure i was not voting for the wrong guy!
I was pretty pokey reading my ballot, too, because there were poorly-worded initiative questions, including one in which you had to vote Yes in order to stop the implementation of a broad-based tax increase targeted at the beverage industry. A cursory reading could leave people with the impression that they would have to vote No to oppose the new taxes.
 
  • #1,186
Moonbear said:
They had the Obama's voting on the morning news...both Michelle and Barack side-by-side with their daughter standing in between looking HORRIBLY bored by the whole process.

I'm not American, but I saw this on BBC in the news. He looked like he was joking around with his daughter and waiting for his wife to finish voting. It looked like they were enjoying themselves and I didn't think they looked bored by the process.

However, I got bored soon after that :p.

For whatever it's worth, after seeing Sarah Palin's interview & that prank call, I think I'd be surprised if people would vote and elect McCain and risk her being President.
 
  • #1,187
Evo said:
If my office is any indication, Missouri will go to Obama. Out of 150 people, only two are voting McCain, one of them is a Young Earth Creationist, and we think the other is also, but he doesn't go around saying things like "dinosaurs are a Darwinist conspiracy". :-p
How DID those pesky Darwinists find the time to dream up and construct all those "fossils", much less bury them so skillfully in solid rock?

I'll bet Sarah has a ready answer for that, unlike "What books do you read?"
 
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  • #1,188
turbo-1 said:
I was pretty pokey reading my ballot, too, because there were poorly-worded initiative questions,
There was once a reported proposal something like "elect to discontinue the process to rescind the abolition of the blue laws" (blue laws are laws banning shops/bars on sunday)
 
  • #1,189
If you are quick you can still bet on the outcome.
You can gets of around 1:25 (odds on) for Obama!
 
  • #1,190
Does anyone think Obama gets 500+ electoral votes like Nixon did in 1972 and Reagan in 1984?
 
  • #1,191
LightbulbSun said:
Does anyone think Obama gets 500+ electoral votes like Nixon did in 1972 and Reagan in 1984?
I'm thinking between 350 and 400
 
  • #1,192
LightbulbSun said:
Does anyone think Obama gets 500+ electoral votes like Nixon did in 1972 and Reagan in 1984?

Calm down.

Let's be happy with 270.
 
  • #1,193
LowlyPion said:
Calm down.

Let's be happy with 270.

No kidding. Though I must admit that my best guesses leave Obama with 353, IIRC. But there is no way to know the proportions of new voters, hidden bias, undecided swings... I tend to think it will be a wash and that the polls will be representitive of the final vote. And we do know that half of the undecided voters never vote. That leaves about 3%, which seem to be splitting about 60/40 in McCain's favor, and not enough to offset the long-term trends.

Missouri was one of the toughest calls for me to make for our contest. The black vote could make for a significant upset, but the polls show it a dead heat. Many people are looking at Indiana as well, but I don't see the demographics for a significant shift. So at the least I would expect it to be very tight. Florida looks good but is far too close for comfort. Penn looks good but the trends over the last few days have favored McCain.

I agree with Evo - the suspense is killing me!
 
  • #1,194
Ivan Seeking said:
No kidding. Though I must admit that my best guesses leave Obama with 353, IIRC.

I think I heard earlier that Karl Rove is predicting 338 for Obama.

I think at this point he could care less about McCain. He'd probably rather build his electoral cred for 2012 than pump McCain any more at this point.
 
  • #1,195
LowlyPion said:
I think I heard earlier that Karl Rove is predicting 338 for Obama.
Correct. That's roughly what I expect too.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/rovefinal.jpg​

D=338, R=200
 
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  • #1,196
Ivan Seeking said:
I agree with Evo - the suspense is killing me!

I am about to finish the left over Halloween candy. My dietary discipline is shot in nervous anticipation.

Maybe I'll go make a loaf of bread. I can call it Obama Bread.

Maybe by the time it's done so will the threat of McCain Palin setting back the country any further.
 
  • #1,197
♪ You got to know when to hold em'
Know when to fold em'
Know when to walk away
Know when to run

You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin' done ♫​
⚛​
 
  • #1,198
Gokul43201 said:
Correct. That's roughly what I expect too.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/rovefinal.jpg​

D=338, R=200

That about looks like my map for the Election Game. I did have Missouri Democratic (different) is all that I notice off the top of my head. (I'm counting on EVO to swing the state my way.)
 
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