News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #721
lisab said:
Sounds annoying, turbo. Meanwhile, it's nice and quiet here in the almost-certainly-blue State of Washington! Just the occasional TV ad.

Same here in blue Oregon.
 
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  • #722
lisab said:
Sounds annoying, turbo. Meanwhile, it's nice and quiet here in the almost-certainly-blue State of Washington! Just the occasional TV ad.
It's about every day, lisab, and practically all afternoon and evening on the TV - luckily, I have an aversion to network TV, so I can avoid most of the broadcast attacks. My niece is the mail-carrier for this rural route, and I feel for her. Normally, she only has to stop at mail-boxes that have a flag up (outgoing) or have incoming mail. Now, every day for weeks, she has to stop at every single mailbox delivering that toxic crap.
 
  • #723
Ivan Seeking said:
Same here in blue Oregon.
Maine is blue, too, but McCain hopes to swing the (very rural) 2nd congressional district and earn one of Maine's apportioned electoral college votes. They are spending a LOT per voter to try to pull this off.
 
  • #724
Here is the text of the robo-call I got earlier today. I can't post audio, because so far only left-leaning sites have linked it, but hopefully PBS will cover it in tonight's news.

Giuliani said:
Hi, this is Rudy Giuliani, and I'm calling for John McCain and the Republican National Committee because you need to know that Barack Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers.
It's true, I read Obama's words myself. And recently, Congressional liberals introduced a bill to eliminate mandatory prison sentences for violent criminals -- trying to give liberal judges the power to decide whether criminals are sent to jail or set free. With priorities like these, we just can't trust the inexperience and judgment of Barack Obama and his liberal allies. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008 at 866 558 5591.
 
  • #725
  • #726
turbo-1 said:
You may be right. Still, Clinton would be a solidly liberal justice, providing some sort of balance against the right-wing activists and essentially negating one vote (Thomas comes to mind) in almost every decision. There would be lots worse places to put her, like Secretary of State, where her husband and their past political associates could wield undue influence. We need a clean start in DC.

I don't think they will necessarily put her anywhere. If she leaves the Senate figure Guiliani or Bloomberg to make a grab for it.
 
  • #727
LowlyPion said:
I don't think they will necessarily put her anywhere. If she leaves the Senate figure Guiliani or Bloomberg to make a grab for it.
You may be right, but she has a huge ego (on a par with Bill's) and if she got the chance to sit on the SC, she could be looking ahead to decades of interpreting US law - a legacy that is much different (and certainly more long-lasting) than that arising from Bill's flamboyant presidency. She'd jump at it.
 
  • #728
turbo-1 said:
You may be right, but she has a huge ego (on a par with Bill's) and if she got the chance to sit on the SC, she could be looking ahead to decades of interpreting US law - a legacy that is much different (and certainly more long-lasting) than that arising from Bill's flamboyant presidency. She'd jump at it.

I agree she might. And that would certainly make that branch of government the more interesting. But I think there would be a filibuster that would last until the next ice age if she was nominated.
 
  • #729
Just reported on Chris Mathews Hardball that the RNCC is withdrawing ad support for the congressional campaign of this Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota. (If you recall she was the one channeling Joe McCarthy about anti-Americanism in Congress.)

Previously it had been thought to be a safe district and now apparently they are afraid they are losing the district and are deploying resources elsewhere.
 
  • #730
LowlyPion said:
Just reported on Chris Mathews Hardball that the RNCC is withdrawing ad support for the congressional campaign of this Michelle Bachmann in Minnesota. (If you recall she was the one channeling Joe McCarthy about anti-Americanism in Congress.)

Previously it had been thought to be a safe district and now apparently they are afraid they are losing the district and are deploying resources elsewhere.
Her Democratic opponent has been flooded with over a million dollars in donations in the last 4 days and her GOP primary opponent is jumping back into the race as a write-in. Bachmann is toast.
 
  • #731
Bachman said she had never watched Hardball before the interview and didn't realize what it was. It's called TELEVISION, dear.
 
  • #732
Evo said:
Bachman said she had never watched Hardball before the interview and didn't realize what it was. It's called TELEVISION, dear.

She probably thought it was Fox and Friends.

Speaking of which I saw it this morning and they were announcing that Roger Ailes was inducted into the Broadcasting Hall of Fame last evening along 9 others including Matt Lauer. The dumb one (I know that doesn't narrow it any) interjected that it was a shame Ailes couldn't be inducted by himself. (I think they inducted him because he doesn't look all that healthy.)

I swear I think the bunch of them are a result of inbreeding.
 
  • #733


Late update - sorry for the delay. Obama's numbers have clearly hit saturation and are fluctuating about that level.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174  |  273/265    273/265 
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163  |  364/174    273/265 
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158  |  364/174    273/265 
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155  |  369/169    273/265
10/23   306/160  364/174  277/174  337/171    301/160   286/157  |  364/174    273/265

Market Update:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
Oct 23     $85.4    $14.7      0.862   0.135
 
  • #734
Here is an interesting poll, conducted by eight Big Ten schools. The reason I find it interesting is that although Obama is over the 50% mark in all these battleground states, the poll sampled only households with land-lines. Cell-only voters (who tend to be younger) were excluded, and that almost certainly skewed the results toward McCain, since Obama has more support amongst younger people.

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/
 
  • #735
I always have belief that Michigan swings blue when needed... but Ohio?? WOW... I was surprised to see today that Ohio, the state of my birth and upbringing has turned to leaning blue on several electoral maps. :biggrin: I think this is in part from the big lead shown in the big-ten poll Turbo-1 links to above. Wow. That would, I confess, make me happy.

Down here in red TN, I'll confess to only being happy at the thought of taking a razor blade to the "N" of "NOBAMA" bumper stickers. I don't... but gee would I like to! :smile:
 
  • #736
Another "oooops, did I say that out loud moment"

File this one under “real versus unreal America.”

Politico picks up on another uh-oh moment from a Republican representative up for re-election. Rep. Robin Hayes, during a warm-up act for John McCain this weekend in North Carolina, remarked to a rowdy crowd that “liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God.”

McCain and his traveling press corps had not yet arrived at the venue when Hayes made the remark. A spokesperson for the congressman, who is locked in a razor-tight reelection rematch with Democrat Larry Kissell, initially denied to the Politico that Hayes uttered the phrase, but audio of the comment has since surfaced.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/21/1575853.aspx
 
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  • #737
Evo said:
Another "oooops, did I say that outloud moment"



http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/21/1575853.aspx

Yes, how about that!

I posted this in the Palins America thread as well. The right wing, and esp hate radio - the likes of G Gordon Liddy - have corrupted the minds of millions of Americans in an attempt to create a nation of hate mongers; much like Hitler did.

I never realized that Liddy was actually inspired by Hitler!

I tracked down an excerpt from one of Liddys shows. The idiot is still ranting against people called to testify at the McCarthy hearings! Unbelievable!
 
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  • #738
Evo said:
Another "oooops, did I say that outloud moment"

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/21/1575853.aspx

It seems that Republicans have had a plague of these kinds of moments - Representative John Murtha and Joe Biden notwithstanding.
 
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  • #739
LowlyPion said:
It seems that Republicans have had a plague of these kinds of moments - Representative John Murtha and Joe Biden notwithstanding.

There is a difference between a slip, or a comment that doesn't go over well, and the denigration of half of the country. Again, Hitler comes to mind.

They say, "liberals hate you" in the effort to make you hate liberals. They are saying that liberals are evil.

Hitler Hitler Hitler.
 
  • #740
Zobgy Poll shows Obama with about a 12 pt lead over McCain with about 7.5% prefer someone else or not sure.
Code: 
Week Three
Tracking Poll    Obama   McCain   Others/Not sure
 Oct-20          50.3%    42.4%    7.3%
 Oct-21          51.6%    42.0%    6.4%
 Oct-22          52.2%    40.3%    7.5%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1605
 
  • #741
With early voting in Florida now open, MSNBC is reporting over 750,000 have already voted there. This is roughly 4% of their eligible voters already.

Big turn out => Not good for McCain.
 
  • #742
The two latest polls show Obama up by 12 and 14 points in OHIO! That is a larger lead than the latest poll gives McCain in Texas.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
 
  • #743
Ivan Seeking said:
The two latest polls show Obama up by 12 and 14 points in OHIO! That is a larger lead than the latest poll gives McCain in Texas.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Maybe Texas will become a battleground state?
 
  • #745
mheslep said:
Curious: would this post be considered disturbing as well?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1170361&postcount=133

You had to go back two years to find one comment? Wow!

Oh yes, Obama never attacked a country - the wrong country. The comment about Bush was motivated by his actions. The effigy of Obama was "hung" because Obama is black.

Do you understand the difference?
 
  • #746
mheslep said:
Curious: would this post be considered disturbing as well?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1170361&postcount=133
You went back 2 years to find a post by someone that no longer posts here? If I had caught that post then, it would have been deleted and the member warned as we don't allow such suggestions, not even jokingly.

What that has to do with psychos publicly carrying out a mock hanging , I do not know.
 
  • #747
Ivan Seeking said:
Oh yes, Obama never attacked a country - the wrong country. The comment about Bush was motivated by his actions. The effigy of Obama was "hung" because Obama is black.

Do you understand the difference?

My reading of the article is not exactly to think it's such a big deal.

Likely hung by a student. Likely hung for ignorant and immature reasons and likely without quite the sinister malice that it is interpreted. Getting attention is likely the real reason. Youthful bad decisions are not the real problems. They need educating, but then they are in school and hopefully they will learn.

Do I condone such acts? Of course not. Should the student or students be held accountable? Most definitely. And a suitable penance undoubtedly would be some community service in a minority area.
 
  • #748
LowlyPion said:
Likely hung by a student. Likely hung for ignorant and immature reasons and likely without quite the sinister malice that it is interpreted. Getting attention is likely the real reason. Youthful bad decisions are not the real problems. They need educating, but then they are in school and hopefully they will learn.
They guy who hanged Obama in effigy is an "adult" who has owned that house for years. There was an interview with a few of his neighbors, and they didn't think it was funny. The video was posted on Huffington Post, so I didn't link it. One of the neighbors said that she had always considered the guy an OK neighbor, but she made a comment about instability, "what else would he do" or something to that effect. I'll see if I can dig up the interview.

Edit: that didn't take long. Notice the star of David on the effigy's head, and the misspelled Hussein. This guy is a piece of work.
 
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  • #749
Along those lines:
The Asheville (N.C.) Citizen Times reports, "A dead bear was found dumped this morning on the Western Carolina University campus, draped with a pair of Obama campaign signs, university police said."

Maintenance workers at 7:45 a.m. found a 75-pound bear cub dumped at the roundabout at the entrance to campus, said Tom Johnson, chief of university police. “It looked like it had been shot in the head as best we can tell. A couple of Obama campaign signs had been stapled together and stuck over its head,” Johnson said.

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875872
 
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  • #750
The guy is a typical racist. "Make no mistake, he doesn't want an African American running the country... Only white Christians should be in power". [Does it sound like anybody from history, like, oh, say, Hitler?]

But I was confused. I thought the post referenced this Obama effigy hanging by "Christian" Republicans.

NEWBERG, Ore. - Students and school leaders at a small Christian university expressed outrage Wednesday at the discovery of a life-size cardboard effigy of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama hanging from a tree on campus.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26872774/
 

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