What Is the Optimal Delivery Date d to Maximize the Expected Contract Award?

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on optimizing the delivery date, denoted as 'd', to maximize the expected contract award based on the function f(x) = 1/2 - 1/4 |d-x|. The incentive award of C is granted when the actual delivery date x falls within the interval of 6 < x < 8, while penalties C1 and C2 are imposed for delivery dates outside this range. To solve the problem, participants emphasize the need to clarify the nature of f(x) and calculate the expected value of the contract award as a function of d.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of probability density functions
  • Knowledge of expected value calculations
  • Familiarity with optimization techniques
  • Basic concepts of incentive and penalty structures in contract management
NEXT STEPS
  • Clarify the bounds for the probability density function f(x)
  • Learn how to calculate expected values for piecewise functions
  • Study optimization methods for maximizing functions
  • Explore the implications of incentive and penalty structures in contract scenarios
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Mathematicians, contract managers, and students in operations research or economics who are interested in optimizing delivery dates and understanding the implications of incentives and penalties in contract awards.

ptlnguyen
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Homework Statement


Given:
f(x) = 1/2 - 1/4 |d-x| where x is the deliver date
If the actually delivery date from target date falls within the interval of 6 < x <8, an incentive award of C results. However if x < 6, a penalty of C1 is imposed, while if x > 8, the penalty is C2. Find the value of d that maximizes the expected contract award.


Homework Equations



Please show me how to solve this problem. Thank you much.

The Attempt at a Solution

 
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ptlnguyen said:

Homework Statement


Given:
f(x) = 1/2 - 1/4 |d-x| where x is the deliver date
If the actually delivery date from target date falls within the interval of 6 < x <8, an incentive award of C results. However if x < 6, a penalty of C1 is imposed, while if x > 8, the penalty is C2. Find the value of d that maximizes the expected contract award.


Homework Equations



Please show me how to solve this problem. Thank you much.

The Attempt at a Solution



What is f(x)? Is it a probability density, a cost function, a profit function or something else? If f(x) IS a probability density, it looks wrong: it must integrate to 1 when you integrate over its nonzero portions, so at the very least you need to supply bounds on x.

Anyway, the Forum rules require you to do some work on the problem yourself: we are not allowed to show you how to do it. I will say, however, that the first step---after fixing up f(x)--- must be to figure out what is the expected value of the contract award as a function of d.
 

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