News What will happen in the 2006 mid-term elections?

[wasteofo2]

Does someone have handy the party-wise splits for the 67 (or so) senatorial seats not up for election this year?

R: 40
D: 27

 

[Gokul43201]

R: 40
D: 27

Thanks waste.

My (pessimistic) guess is the GOP will keep the majority in the Senate (R50, D48/49, I2/1).

 

[pcorbett]

My view is subject to change, but at this moment I suspect Republicans hold the Senate and the House but lose statehouses (at least the governorships). Essentially, we go back to 2002, but with the GOP poorly positioned in governorships for 2008. [1]

 

[wasteofo2]

Thanks waste.

My (pessimistic) guess is the GOP will keep the majority in the Senate (R50, D48/49, I2/1).

That's pretty realistic, bordering on optimistic.

PA, MT, MO, OH and RI switching hands, with CT a tossup between Lamont and Lieberman. At this stage, that's all you're going to get. NV, VA, TN and AZ COULD switch to the dems if some CRAZY **** happens, but probably not.

 

[Gokul43201]

Yeah, I'd like to see some of that CRAZY ****!

 

[wasteofo2]

Yeah, I'd like to see some of that CRAZY ****!

Go dig some up. I'm sure Bob Corker's killed someone in his lifetime. George Allen is supposedly gay as well.

 

[Gokul43201]

By now, voting's probably started in the Connecticut primary...

(recent numbers showed Lieberman forging a comeback)

 

[BobG]

Boneheaded move of the election year:

Bob Ney withdraws his name as a candidate for Congressional Rep in Ohio. Republicans plan to replace him with Joy Padgett.

Joy Padgett lost in the primaries earlier this year as a candidate for Lt Governor (in Ohio, Governor/Lt Governor win or lose as a team). Ohio election laws state:

"No person who seeks party nomination for an office or position at a primary election by declaration of candidacy or by declaration of intent to be a write-in candidate and no person who is a first choice for president of candidates seeking election as delegates and alternates to the national conventions of the different major political parties who are chosen by direct vote of the electors as provided in this chapter shall be permitted to become a candidate by nominating petition or by declaration of intent to be a write-in candidate at the following general election for any office other than the office of member of the state board of education, office of member of a city, local, or exempted village board of education, office of member of a governing board of an educational service center, or office of township trustee."

Padgett's ineligible to run for Congress this year!

Obviously, Republicans will eventually put someone else up instead to replace Ney as candidate, but what a way to send the message, "We're totallly clueless what to do at this point. We're just grabbing at straws."

 

[Gokul43201]

Wow, that's almost as stupid as the Dems have been, this last decade or so.

And down south, it looks like DeLay will have to run...and spend some of his legal funds on the campaign.

 

[Skyhunter]

Boneheaded move of the election year:

Bob Ney withdraws his name as a candidate for Congressional Rep in Ohio. Republicans plan to replace him with Joy Padgett.

Joy Padgett lost in the primaries earlier this year as a candidate for Lt Governor (in Ohio, Governor/Lt Governor win or lose as a team). Ohio election laws state:

"No person who seeks party nomination for an office or position at a primary election by declaration of candidacy or by declaration of intent to be a write-in candidate and no person who is a first choice for president of candidates seeking election as delegates and alternates to the national conventions of the different major political parties who are chosen by direct vote of the electors as provided in this chapter shall be permitted to become a candidate by nominating petition or by declaration of intent to be a write-in candidate at the following general election for any office other than the office of member of the state board of education, office of member of a city, local, or exempted village board of education, office of member of a governing board of an educational service center, or office of township trustee."

Padgett's ineligible to run for Congress this year!

Obviously, Republicans will eventually put someone else up instead to replace Ney as candidate, but what a way to send the message, "We're totallly clueless what to do at this point. We're just grabbing at straws."

That is rich. my parents live in Ney's district, Although just like me they have not voted for a Republican since Reagan's first term.

I like Ney's comment that he is not running because of his family. Running or not, he is still probably going to be indicted.

I wonder how going to prison will effect his family

 

[Gokul43201]

The GOP argument is that Padgett's entry does not violate the spirit of the Ohio "sore loser's" law - namely to prevent a loser in a primary from filing again in the same race.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2287278

 

[BobG]

The GOP argument is that Padgett's entry does not violate the spirit of the Ohio "sore loser's" law - namely to prevent a loser in a primary from filing again in the same race.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2287278

Did they explain that to Padgett prior to her starting her campaign? It sounds like she was pretty much blindsided by the news:

Padgett, already campaigning, sounded surprised. "As far as I know I have a green light. If this were the case, it's something I need to know about," she said. "Yesterday, everything was rolling forward."

Yeah, I guess knowing whether you're eligible or not is something a candidate needs to know.

Personally, I think Ohio's law is bad and probably unconstitutional. It's intended to prevent a candidate popular with the general public, but resistant to toe the party line, from coming back to bite the party that dissed them (i.e. - it's intended to prevent situations like Joe Lieberman in Connecticut).

Whether it's Republican or Democrat, good to see a law designed to protect the parties from the voters come back to bite them.

 

[Gokul43201]

Update: With 98% of precincts reporting, Lamont has won by a margin of only about 3.5%So after all the (unfounded) accusations that Lamont was responsible for Joe Lieberman's site going down today, it turns out that in fact the $15/month server that hosts the site was down.

With a multimillion dollar campaign chest, why on Earth would you settle for a $15-a-month webhosting service?

 

[Astronuc]

With a multimillion dollar campaign chest, why on Earth would you settle for a $15-a-month webhosting service?

Frugality?

 

[Mickey]

I don't know... I don't know anybody who actually votes for congressional candidates, so it's hard for me to take the beat of my constituency. ;)

I'd rather not re-elect Herb Kohl (I'm uncomfortable with senators serving more than two of their long ass terms), but the only alternative is someone who thinks that we are in a trade war and a culture war in addition to the war on terror. I don't believe in trade wars or culture wars, and I've already resigned myself into thinking that the "war on terror" is a dumbified name for something more serious. I mean, I'd have to *really* hate Kohl to elect this other guy.

And, I'm not an anti-semite but, will Wisconsin ever have a senator again who isn't Jewish? Let's get some diversity up in here.

 

[Astronuc]

I was listening to a 'debate' between the two contenders for the Republican Party for Senatorial candidate in the national election in November. The Republican candidate will run against Hillary Clinton.

John Spencer - former mayor of Yonkers, New York (1995-2003). On March 6, 2006, he was endorsed by Congressman Vito Fossella. He is the current party designee after the convention on May 31, 2006.

Kathleen Troia McFarland - former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Reagan, as well as a wife and mother of five according to her website. McFarland has made national headlines by claiming that Senator Clinton has hired "helicopters to fly over my house at night taking pictures" and people that "peek through my window at night".

from Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_United_States_Senate_election,_2006

Well, it was nasty. It was a verbal brawl. Very little in the way of substantive discussion. I think they both came off as somewhat worse than Hillary.

 

[wasteofo2]

Rasmussen just released a poll showing Leiberman leading a 3-way race 46-41-6. Sample size was 550 voters, with a given MOE of 4%. Not much of a lead for Joe, he'll have to do some GREAT campaigning to pull this race off well. I still think he'll win, but it'll probably be with less than 50% of the vote. I think the Republican (scheslinger or sommat) will definitely pull off more than 6%, leaving both Lamont and Leiberman somewhere in the low-mid 40's.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=9200608100

 

[Astronuc]

Eye on Election, Democrats Run as Wal-Mart Foe
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MICHAEL BARBARO, NY Times, Aug 17, 2006

The focus on Wal-Mart is part of a broader strategy of addressing what Democrats say is general economic anxiety.

Hmmm, is this anyway to run an election? Are Democrats addressing or exploiting the public's anxiety?

Do the Democrats have a more effective solution or policy, which would improve the economic condition of the country? That is the issue regarding this matter.

 

[russ_watters]

That's why I don't see the Democratic party being relevant any time in the near future, Astronuc. There are problems in this country and relevant issues to address, but by and large, I don't see Democratic candidates doing/saying anything useful.

I'm sure they'll pick up a few seats (which is how I voted) because people don't like Bush, but these are local elections and if disliking Bush wasn't enough to get Kerry elected, it won't be enough to get a lot of people who aren't running against Bush elected.

And the anti-Wal Mart tactic is potentially worse - unlike the anti-Bush tactic, it has a big possibility of backfiring. Wal Mart employs an awful lot of people in towns they supposedly exploit and an awful lot more shop there.

 

[Office_Shredder]

That's why I don't see the Democratic party being relevant any time in the near future, Astronuc. There are problems in this country and relevant issues to address, but by and large, I don't see Democratic candidates doing/saying anything useful.

What republican candidates do you see doing anything about them?

 

[Skyhunter]

Eye on Election, Democrats Run as Wal-Mart Foe
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MICHAEL BARBARO, NY Times, Aug 17, 2006

Especially since Wal-Mart is currently changing their business practice in a way that addresses the major criticisms directed at the company.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9815727/

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has unveiled an environmental plan to boost energy efficiency, cut down on waste and reduce greenhouse gases tied to global warming as part of a wider effort to address issues where it has been pummeled by critics.

Not that everyone agrees.

One Wal-Mart critic dismissed the green targets as a diversion, saying Wal-Mart has declined to raise wages that labor groups and others criticize as being at or below the poverty level.

But I must agree that if Democrats want to gain my confidence they need to have a positive message, with solutions, not criticism.

I criticize because there is not a lot more that I can do. As elected representatives, they should be more positive in their message and more effective in their jobs.

I expect a shift in the balance of power this election cycle and I have hopes that it will result in better government. If the Dem's take one or both houses, the resulting shakeup in the Republican party should result in real conservatives like George Voinovitch and John McCain being elevated as party leaders.

Hopefully the winning Dems, will get the message and get busy doing the peoples work, and not the corporations.

The first bill I would like to see passed is public financing of elections to remove the undue influence exerted by K street.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/16/AR2006081601598.html

Washington lobbying firms, trade associations and corporate offices are moving to hire more well-connected Democrats in response to rising prospects that the opposition party will wrest control of at least one chamber of Congress from Republicans in the November elections.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

 

[SOS2008]

I'm sure they'll pick up a few seats (which is how I voted) because people don't like Bush, but these are local elections and if disliking Bush wasn't enough to get Kerry elected, it won't be enough to get a lot of people who aren't running against Bush elected.

Things have changed a lot since 2004.

First and foremost the unpopularity of the invasion/occupation in Iraq. Aside from the Abramoff scandel, Katrina fiasco, etc., etc., I believe inflation (beginning with increased gas prices) is going to become a growing issue. By 2008 it will be a major issue (in particular housing, but also health care, education, etc.). The Dems will probably get the minimum wage increased in 2006 as a first positive action, and then hopefully an exist strategy from Iraq -- a great start if I might say.

 

[wasteofo2]

Update on competitive seats:

CT:
Every post-primary poll has Leiberman winning definitively.

RI:
Chaffe(R) is barely ahead of Laffey(R) in Primary polls, and trailing Whitehouse(D) in General Election Polls.

OH:
Brown(D) is leading in all the latest polls.

MO:
McCaskill(D) and Talent(R) are still trading the lead back and forth and staying very close, but allegations of illegal drug use in McCaskill's past have just surfaced, which will probably hurt her.

PA:
Santorum(R) is polling much better lately, with a gap tending to be 10-6 percent.

MT:
Latest Rasmussen poll shows Burns(R) and Tester (D) tied, no other poll has yet confirmed this. Almost all previous ones had Burns down 5 or so points.

VA:
Allen(R) recently made a supposedly racist comment about a Native American Webb(D) volunteer, and possibly as a result, Webb has pulled within 3 points in the latest poll.

TN:
Corker still leads

AZ:
DNC just pumped more than 1.5million in ad dollars into this race, but Kyl(R) still leads Penderson(D) by huge odds.

This is my current prediction (red=dem, blue=rep)

 

[Gokul43201]

VA:
Allen(R) recently made a supposedly racist comment about a Native American Webb(D) volunteer, and possibly as a result, Webb has pulled within 3 points in the latest poll.

The Webb volunteer was of Indian (South Asian) descent, not native American. His name is Sidharth, but Allen calls him "Macaca" (a kind of SE Asian monkey).

[MEDIA=youtube]pL3Q9gUEvtA[/MEDIA][/URL]

 

[BobG]

Things have changed a lot since 2004.

First and foremost the unpopularity of the invasion/occupation in Iraq. Aside from the Abramoff scandel, Katrina fiasco, etc., etc., I believe inflation (beginning with increased gas prices) is going to become a growing issue. By 2008 it will be a major issue (in particular housing, but also health care, education, etc.). The Dems will probably get the minimum wage increased in 2006 as a first positive action, and then hopefully an exist strategy from Iraq -- a great start if I might say.

The Dems having an 'exist strategy' would be a change from 2004, when they seemed to have a problem figuring out who they were. ( Oh, I just slay myself! )

Actually, they'd better have a real good exit strategy if they want to last more than one term. The reason Presidential hopefuls have been hesitant to endorse pulling out of Iraq is because Iraq has the potential to be as gruesome as Rwanda - having opponents hang responsibility for that on a Democratic President would kill momentum pretty quickly.

Of course, the way things are going, staying is going to be a pretty big momentum killer, as well. Anyone with any kind of realistic shot of replacing Bush probably curses his name every night, because, short of pulling off some kind of miracle, his successor will probably serve only one term.

 

[McGyver]

Budget Deficit to become No. 1 Issue in 2008 Presidential Election

Things have changed a lot since 2004.

First and foremost the unpopularity of the invasion/occupation in Iraq. Aside from the Abramoff scandel, Katrina fiasco, etc., etc., I believe inflation (beginning with increased gas prices) is going to become a growing issue. By 2008 it will be a major issue (in particular housing, but also health care, education, etc.). The Dems will probably get the minimum wage increased in 2006 as a first positive action, and then hopefully an exist strategy from Iraq -- a great start if I might say.

Amen! The Republicans have been playing a real life Manopoly Game with the U.S. economy, not to mention will waste upwards of a trillion dollars on the Iraq invasion (where the real threat was and is Iran, requiring more spending). Given the corporate and personal wealth tax breaks, rapidly rising Medicare (and Social Security) spending, and a new era of state insolvencies (asking for federal funds) - the U.S. budget is in the crapper! I predict this issue will creep up in '07 and '08, as no one is talking much about it now. Then, it will be called a crisis.

 

[russ_watters]

What republican candidates do you see doing anything about them?

The republicans have a pretty coherent strategy that focuses on national security and points out (but doesn't really do anything to improve) how prosperous our country is.

Not very deep, but simple works.

Things have changed a lot since 2004.

First and foremost the unpopularity of the invasion/occupation in Iraq.

That's a change since 2004? Uh, IIRC, the 2004 election was decided mostly on the Iraq war based on people not liking it but not thinking it would help to elect Kerry. It was a divisive issue then and that hasn't changed.

...Katrina fiasco, etc., etc.,

So much blame to go around, I doubt anyone will risk using Katrina.

I believe inflation (beginning with increased gas prices) is going to become a growing issue.

Well, economics is always important, but with virtually every economic indicator doing well, the possible future risk of inflation just isn't going to be something the Democrats will be able to get their votors to sink their teeth into. Its just too nebulous a concern that people won't care about. What they will care about is that they bought a house in the past 4 years and are likely to be better off financially than they were 4 years ago.

By 2008 it will be a major issue (in particular housing, but also health care, education, etc.). The Dems will probably get the minimum wage increased in 2006 as a first positive action, and then hopefully an exist strategy from Iraq -- a great start if I might say.

With the Republicans controlling the legislature, there is simply no way for the Dems to profit from those things. You saw what the Reps did with the minimum wage bill a few months ago, right? The reps will make the dems pay for it big time and will still be able to say they passed it themselves.

 

[wasteofo2]

With the Republicans controlling the legislature, there is simply no way for the Dems to profit from those things. You saw what the Reps did with the minimum wage bill a few months ago, right? The reps will make the dems pay for it big time and will still be able to say they passed it themselves.

Democrats have put initiatives on the ballot in 10 states to raise the state minimum wage. Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, Michigan, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas and Oklahoma.

Most or all of these will pass, and Democratic activists will rightly be able to claim credit for proposing and seeing the ballot initiatives through. In Ohio, Montana and Missouri, these initiatives could help secure the wins of Senate Candidates. Same with House candidates.

 

[BobG]

The Webb volunteer was of Indian (South Asian) descent, not native American. His name is Sidharth, but Allen calls him "Macaca" (a kind of SE Asian monkey).

[MEDIA=youtube]pL3Q9gUEvtA[/MEDIA][/URL][/QUOTE]
That may be an embarrassing comment that portrays him as insensitive, but surely Virginia voters will be more concerned about important lesilation that Allen has sponsored:

41. S.3288 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on handheld electronic can openers.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
42. S.3289 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on electric knives.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
43. S.3290 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on toaster ovens with single-slot traditional toaster opening on top of oven.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
44. S.3291 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on ice shavers.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
45. S.3292 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on dual-press sandwich makers with floating upper lid and lock.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
46. S.3293 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on electric drink mixers with tilt mixing heads and two-speed motors.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
47. S.3294 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on electric juice extractors greater than 300 watts but less than 400 watts.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
48. S.3295 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on electric juice extractors not less than 800 watts.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
49. S.3296 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on open-top electric indoor grills.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
50. S.3297 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on electric coffee grinders.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
51. S.3298 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on electric percolators.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
52. S.3299 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on automatic drip coffeemakers other than those with clocks.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
53. S.3300 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on automatic drip coffeemakers with electronic clocks.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
54. S.3301 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on electronic under-the-cabinet mounting electric can openers.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)
55. S.3303 : A bill to suspend temporarily the duty on food slicers and shredders with top-mounted motors and replaceable mixing bowls.
Sponsor: Sen Allen, George [VA] (introduced 5/26/2006) Cosponsors (None)

Fifteen bills on small appliances introduced in a single day. Surely, that has to be a new record!

What the heck, you ask? Well, let's see, it's got to be one of the reasons below:

a) May 26th was the day George Allen came out of the closet and admitted a fetish for small kitchen appliances.
b) God only knows! He meant to stop at three in the "How many small appliances bills can you introduce?" pool, but the bidding just got out of hand.
c) His tie got caught in the office paper shredder and everyone knows kitchen appliances are the arch enemy of office appliances.
d) Hamilton Beach, manufacturer of small appliances, has its headquarters in Richmond, VA.

 

[russ_watters]

Democrats have put initiatives on the ballot in 10 states to raise the state minimum wage. Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, Michigan, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas and Oklahoma.

Most or all of these will pass, and Democratic activists will rightly be able to claim credit for proposing and seeing the ballot initiatives through. In Ohio, Montana and Missouri, these initiatives could help secure the wins of Senate Candidates. Same with House candidates.

Yes, when local politicians keep their focus local, they'll have a chance. But federal legislators have to hook their wagons to national policy and I'm much more interested in where the country is going than where Arkansas is going anyway.