What's Going on with the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant?

[BillTre]

There are reports of a series of problems at the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant.
Shutdowns, regional power outages, radiation releases, and runs on iodine.



Is 1.5 million curies a lot to release?

 

[Frabjous]

Is 1.5 million curies a lot to release?

Chenobyl was 100-200 million curies.

 

[Vanadium 50]

This is ~1% of Chernobyl, ~10% of Fukishima and ~60% of Three Mile Island.

 

[Baluncore]

Could it be due to targeting and loss of switchyards in the distribution system?
There are four reactors at Rostov. There have been recent shutdowns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostov_Nuclear_Power_Plant

 

[DennisN]

Could it be due to targeting and loss of switchyards in the distribution system?

I don't know, but I know there are a number of big problems in Russia due to the war in Ukraine, and due to Ukrainian targeting and partisan sabotage. If I remember correctly there have been power cuts in Russia, and more are expected. They also have problems with their railways.

I have followed the war quite closely for a long while now (I follow a very good Swedish blog and a couple of very good youtube channels).

Regarding infrastructure:

• Russia is targeting Ukraines power infrastructure (power plants and other power infrastructure) in order to harm the Ukrainian industry and thus economy (and also most likely in order to cause problems for the civilians, particularly in the winter)
  
  
• Ukraine is targeting Russias oil infrastructure (refineries, oil depots etc) in order to harm the Russian economy and thus harm their capability of producing/buying military equipment. Russia is on a war economy; a large percent of their GDP is financing the military. I don't know the exact numbers, but I've heard estimates as high as 40% of their GDP is military spending (!).
  
  Correction edit: I remembered wrong. Russias military spending is estimated at ca 35% of its total government spending, not the GDP, quote:

• Russia’s military spending in 2024 will increase to 7.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP), accounting for 35% of total government spending, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its report.

  Source: Russia’s military spending in 2024 estimated at $140B, report shows (AA News)

How does Russia make money from exports nowadays? A big part of it is by selling oil to China and India.

Sources (e.g.):

• Russia exports almost all its oil to China and India - Novak (Reuters)
• Sanctions for show: Russian oil sales to China, India single main driver of Ukraine invasion (The Kyiv Independent)

I'll check my sources regarding the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant and see if I can find some more info.
I'll also ask around on the blog about it, since there are a number of highly informed people participating there.

If I get some info about it, I'll post it here.

 

[Astronuc]

Is 1.5 million curies a lot to release?

Yes Megacuries is a lot for a release. That's not normal.

The Telegraph reports, "Two power units at the Novocherkassk power station in Rostov - one of the largest in southwest Russia - were taken offline, Vasily Golubev, the regional governor, said in a post on Telegram." Novocherkasskaya GRES is a 2,192MW coal fired power project.

 

[Baluncore]

Ukraine has been targeting the distillation columns of Russian oil refineries. They are very slow, if not impossible, to repair under sanctions. Russia now exports only crude oil and gas to India and China. It imports high-price gasoline. That makes for a very inefficient economy.

Almost all Russian international trade is now in Yuan, not Roubles, so Russia can no longer control the value of its currency. I guess it will shortly become a Chinese puppet.

 

[DennisN]

I found some info about the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant emergency shutdown (of one of four reactors):

A punishing trifecta of an emergency shutdown of one of four reactors at one of Russia’s biggest nuclear power stations, record-high temperatures that meteorologists predict will last at least another week, and damage caused by Ukrainian drones targeting transformer stations was responsible for rolling black-outs, emergency shut-downs and other interruptions to service.

-Edit start-

According to a July 16 statement by the Russian nuclear power monopoly, Rosatom, one of four reactors at the Rostov atomic energy station was shut down due to a turbine malfunction. Officials said there was no radiation threat and that technicians were investigating the problem. No timeline for repair was announced.

-Edit end-

Source:
Millions Without Power in West Russia Thanks to Nuke Plant Failure, Record Temps, Kyiv Drone Strikes (Kyiv Post, July 19, 2024)

 

[DennisN]

Almost all Russian international trade is now in Yuan, not Roubles, so Russia can no longer control the value of its currency. I guess it will shortly become a Chinese puppet.

Yes, I agree with you. Russia is on that trajectory.

And the historian Stephen Kotkin has outlined that very trajectory as one of the possible futures of Russia; here are two excellent videos for those who are interested to peer into the crystal ball regarding the future of Russia, one interview and one lecture. I've seen them both recently.

Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview


Stephen Kotkin: Six Futures of Russia—Why We Need History (and Libraries) | LIVE from NYPL
(Stephen Kotkin begins at ca 17:00)


I can't overstate how good these two videos are. I'm pretty well informed and I knew quite a lot of what Stephen Kotkin was talking about in the videos, but there was also quite much I learned from them which I did not know. I warmly recommend them to those who are interested in present geopolitics; it's not only about Russia, it's also about China and present and potential future conflict areas between democracies and autocracies.

Stephen Kotkin is very knowledgable and also quite funny now and then , which makes him a very engaging speaker and communicator.

 

[Baluncore]

Returning to the physics.

With the heat wave and war damage to the grid, I expect the RNPP would be shut down in a controlled manner when necessary. The RNPP local wind is blowing from the north at 20 km/hr. That is feeding a vertical mixing zone south of the plant.

I have not seen any solid evidence of radiation leakage.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Kotkin wrote an excellent article a few months ago for, I think, Foreign Affairs.

A problem with discussing this is a) no matter what the reality of the situation is, Russia will begin by denying any problem, and b) no matter what the reality of the situation is, people who don't like Russia will say there really was an incident that they are covering up. We won't know the truth of the situation until someone outside Russia will (or will not) detect and report the release. That takes time.

Not all the people who could detect the release will necessarily report it, so we may need to wait for the release to hit parts of Europe.

 

[Arjan82]

I have followed the war quite closely for a long while now (I follow a very good Swedish blog and a couple of very good youtube channels).

Do you mind sharing which youtube channels? I'm quite interested in this stuff.

(nevermind the blog, my Swedish is somewhat, well, 'rusty' ;).

 

[Rive]

I have not seen any solid evidence of radiation leakage.

Neither do I. So far issues with the non-reactor parts seems likely, but the release itself sounds more like misinformation at this point.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, we'll know for sure in a week or so when the cloud passes over (or doesn't) Japan.

 

[Rive]

I would say that'll be the only reliable indication for a while.

 

[Astronuc]

Well, we'll know for sure in a week or so when the cloud passes over (or doesn't) Japan.

Or possibly Astana and Semipalatinsk (Semey 070000), Kazakhstan. They would be most impacted outside of S Russia, if the prevailing winds flow eastward.

 

[DennisN]

Do you mind sharing which youtube channels? I'm quite interested in this stuff.

No problem. Two of the best channels in my opinion are these:

Ukraine - The Latest (The Telegraph)
- probably the best channel of them all in my opinion, simply superb reporting
- I post the latest of their videos below (I haven't heard it myself yet), and for more go to their channel and search for "Ukraine The Latest"



Jake Broe
- a US citizen who unexpectedly happened to become one of the leading independent "amateur" reporters about the war
- he is seriously well informed and has even done a number of successful fundraisers for Ukraine

Channel: https://youtube.com/@JakeBroe/videos

E.g. here Jake Broe interviews General Ben Hodges, former commanding general of United States Army Europe:



I am currently cutting down a bit on following the war though, since I need to reload my batteries and take a vacation. Too much seriousness and misery is not good for the wellbeing, which I am well aware of.

 

[Arjan82]

I am currently cutting down a bit on following the war though, since I need to reload my batteries and take a vacation. Too much seriousness and misery is not good for the wellbeing, which I am well aware of.

That is very true :). So then go have very nice holiday!

 

[Vanadium 50]

Or possibly Astana and Semipalatinsk

Yes, but those places have interests in keeping good relations with Russia. And by good relations, I mean "better than Ukraine".

India and Pakistan are a bit south and may or may not be able to detect radiation, but neither is interested in letting the other know its capabilities.

China is next up, and they have an interest in protecting their semi-vassal state, and are unlikely to deliberately poke them in the eye. Especially as in a few days the cat will be out of the bag anyway.

That leaves Japan and possibly South Korea.

It is possible that the US already knows, via a combination of technology and people. But again, there is no reason to advertise their capabilities (or lack of capabilities) when in a week this will all be out in public.