Who are you going to vote for in the election?

[Evo]

Until I have the ability to edit polls again, I am starting a new one here.

Since so much has happened since the original poll, I thought it would be interesting to see how much of a change there has been. I plan to do another poll after the first Presidential debate to see if that changes anyone's mind.

Voting is restricted to registered American voters that plan on voting in November so that the numbers more accurately reflect true voting.

 

[BobG]

15 is a pretty low limit.

If only 269 Bush voters had voted for Gore in 2000, he would have won Florida by 1 vote and the electoral college by 49 electoral votes.

 

[cristo]

Not wanting to pick a fight, or anything, but why are you requesting that only American who intend to vote in the elections register a choice on the poll? The question is "who will win the (US) general election?", not "who are you going to vote for in the election?" It's perfectly possible for anyone to have a valid opinion on this topic: in fact, even if one is planning on voting for a certain candidate, it doesn't necessarily follow that they think the candidate will win! Thus, I'm not sure that restricting the vote is going to give more of an accurate result.

 

[Evo]

Not wanting to pick a fight, or anything, but why are you requesting that only American who intend to vote in the elections register a choice on the poll? The question is "who will win the (US) general election?", not "who are you going to vote for in the election?" It's perfectly possible for anyone to have a valid opinion on this topic: in fact, even if one is planning on voting for a certain candidate, it doesn't necessarily follow that they think the candidate will win! Thus, I'm not sure that restricting the vote is going to give more of an accurate result.

The poll was actually Gokul's I am just re-using it. You and Bob can beat him up over his choices.

The purpose behind restricting voting to actual voters is because I want a real reflection of which way voters are leaning. Your suggestion of a different title is good, I will make the change.

If someone wants to a create a world opinion poll, they certainly are welcome to, but that's not the purpose of this poll.

 

[OrbitalPower]

Well, I am voting for a third-party candidate (keep in mind I live in a 'safe-state'), but since I still meet all the qualifications for this poll I am going to vote in this thread.

I think Obama will probably win and I believe he may win by less than 15 electoral votes. This is entirely possible, as the race is really close and one or two of the states with less than 15 electoral votes could indeed be the deciding factor.

I choose that option, but I am weary of the Obama campaign's tactics and I certainly won't be surprised if McCain wins.

 

[Moonbear]

The purpose behind restricting voting to actual voters is because I want a real reflection of which way voters are leaning. Your suggestion of a different title is good, I will make the change.

But those are two different questions. Just as an example, I could be planning to vote for Obama, but still think that my sense of public opinion and polling data indicates McCain is going to win by a landslide. (And since I think we all can at least agree neither candidate is winning by a landslide, I used that example so it's clear I'm not giving away my actual opinion here, just illustrating my point.)

 

[Evo]

But those are two different questions. Just as an example, I could be planning to vote for Obama, but still think that my sense of public opinion and polling data indicates McCain is going to win by a landslide. (And since I think we all can at least agree neither candidate is winning by a landslide, I used that example so it's clear I'm not giving away my actual opinion here, just illustrating my point.)

The purpose of this poll is to see how actual registered voters are planning to vote as of right now. Not who you think is going to win, but how you actually plan to vote. I re-used the original polls title, but cristo pointed out that it was confusing.

I'm going to change it once more to eliminate the electoral vote guess.

I specifically selected the option to keep the voting private as I don't feel it's anyone's business to know how any individual plans to vote.

 

[OrbitalPower]

One of these threads should be made after the debates. I can't really get a good "feel" for the election right now.

I think the current trend in the EC favors McCain but the issues favor obama.

 

[Moonbear]

I choose that option, but I am weary of the Obama campaign's tactics and I certainly won't be surprised if McCain wins.

I've noticed that Obama's campaign ads have been increasingly aggressively negative about McCain and Palin without actually saying anything about his own strengths, while I've recently seen McCain ads that have taken a new approach of emphasizing McCain's and Palin's strengths (you don't have to agree they are true, just recognize the approach) and manage to undermine Obama's "for change" mantra yet don't actually attack him at all. It just might be enough to sway some borderline voters (or might even give the third party candidates enough votes to shift the electoral vote...that's harder to predict).

I think Obama is losing some steam. This isn't surprising, since he's never gotten a break from campaigning with such a drawn out primary, while McCain had a nice long hiatus to regroup, strategize and just rest before returning in full force to the campaign trail.

On top of that, I think Palin will appeal to the far right Republicans who may not have been particularly motivated to head to the polls before (I suspect the other groups she'd appeal to would have been voting for McCain already). I think this is giving McCain more of an advantage than he previously had. It's still going to be close, but unless there's an "October surprise" out of the Obama campaign, I think the edge is going to go to McCain. But, I've seen public opinion change so many times in the course of this campaign, I'm not going to be convinced of anything until election day results are in.

 

[cristo]

The purpose of this poll is to see how actual registered voters are planning to vote as of right now. Not who you think is going to win, but how you actually plan to vote. I re-used the original polls title, but cristo pointed out that it was confusing.

That poll now makes restricting to US citizens a lot more sensible

 

[Evo]

One of these threads should be made after the debates. I can't really get a good "feel" for the election right now.

I think the current trend in the EC favors McCain but the issues favor obama.

I am going to make a poll after the first debate to see how much, if any, change it makes.

Does anyone read my posts?

That poll now makes restricting to US citizens a lot more sensible

Yeah, originally I had just planned to reset the first poll to re-take the vote, but realized that it didn't actually reflect how people were planning to vote.

 

[Moonbear]

The purpose of this poll is to see how actual registered voters are planning to vote as of right now. Not who you think is going to win, but how you actually plan to vote. I re-used the original polls title, but cristo pointed out that it was confusing.

Um, I already voted based on the original poll options, since the feedback thread that led me here left me thinking that was the intent of this poll, simply to see what has changed since the first poll on the same topic.

Edit: Nevermind, it's letting me vote again. Wow, it's just like Chicago elections...vote early and vote often.

 

[Danger]

I can't vote in the poll because I'm not a Yank. I am, however, going to sneak into the US, obtain at least 100,000 fake ID's, and vote for Obama with every one of them.

 

[Evo]

Um, I already voted based on the original poll options, since the feedback thread that led me here left me thinking that was the intent of this poll, simply to see what has changed since the first poll on the same topic.

Edit: Nevermind, it's letting me vote again. Wow, it's just like Chicago elections...vote early and vote often.

That's also why I'm not allowing "multiple choice".

 

[Math Is Hard]

No Nader?

 

[Evo]

No Nader?

The "also running" vote is always so low that I didn't include it.

Please don't make me change it again.

 

[Math Is Hard]

The "also running" vote is always so low that I didn't include it.

Please don't make me change it again.

oh, no. It's perfect the way it is.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

The "also running" vote is always so low that I didn't include it.

Please don't make me change it again.

This is consistent with the original title of the thread and inconsistent with the current one.

 

[Evo]

This is consistent with the original title of the thread and inconsistent with the current one.

I would rename the thread "Who are you going to vote for in the election that actually has a chance of winning?", but that's too long.

 

[BobG]

Um, I already voted based on the original poll options, since the feedback thread that led me here left me thinking that was the intent of this poll, simply to see what has changed since the first poll on the same topic.

Edit: Nevermind, it's letting me vote again. Wow, it's just like Chicago elections...vote early and vote often.

How come it's letting you vote again? I can't vote again and, since the options changed, I don't even know who I voted for! Oh god, please don't let me have voted for Pat Buchanon by accident.

Why do you folks always disenfranchise us poor, but honest voters?!

 

[lisab]

Oh god, please don't let me have voted for Pat Buchanon by accident.

...again!

 

[Gokul43201]

I've noticed that Obama's campaign ads have been increasingly aggressively negative about McCain and Palin without actually saying anything about his own strengths, while I've recently seen McCain ads that have taken a new approach of emphasizing McCain's and Palin's strengths (you don't have to agree they are true, just recognize the approach) and manage to undermine Obama's "for change" mantra yet don't actually attack him at all. It just might be enough to sway some borderline voters (or might even give the third party candidates enough votes to shift the electoral vote...that's harder to predict).

What you're seeing is Obama finally agreeing to hit back at the McCain campaign after quietly swallowing lie after lie from McCain campaign ads. It got so bad that last week, even Karl Rove said McCain had gone too far. The Dems have been hopping mad that Obama's not gotten sufficiently negative himself.

As for the truth content of the ads though, McCain has Obama far beat in terms of falsehoods propagated.

https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1873569&postcount=206

I think Obama is losing some steam.

According to the polling numbers Obama is now rebounding after losing ground to McCain over the last couple weeks.

See, for instance: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls
Earlier this week McCain was leading Obama by over 2 points (he peaked at 2.9 points ,sometime last week), but now the polls are tied.

On top of that, I think Palin will appeal to the far right Republicans who may not have been particularly motivated to head to the polls before (I suspect the other groups she'd appeal to would have been voting for McCain already). I think this is giving McCain more of an advantage than he previously had. It's still going to be close, but unless there's an "October surprise" out of the Obama campaign, I think the edge is going to go to McCain. But, I've seen public opinion change so many times in the course of this campaign, I'm not going to be convinced of anything until election day results are in.

As far as how Obama vs. McCain has gone, there really haven't been many changes. Last week was the first time since the Primaries wound down in June, that McCain stole the lead from Obama. And it may be gone by tomorrow.

 

[Evo]

How come it's letting you vote again? I can't vote again and, since the options changed, I don't even know who I voted for! Oh god, please don't let me have voted for Pat Buchanon by accident.

Why do you folks always disenfranchise us poor, but honest voters?!

I counted all the votes in the categories and lumped them into the correct candidate, so your vote is counted for the candidate you voted for.

There will be another poll after the 9-26 Presidential debate.

 

[Gokul43201]

As far as Obama vs. McCain has gone, there really haven't been many changes. Last week was the first time since the Primaries wound down in June, that McCain stole the lead from Obama. And it may be gone by tomorrow.

I was right with that guess, yesterday. RCP today has Obama with a lead of 1.7.

 

[Evo]

Obama has taken an even larger lead in two major polls.

Obama rebounds in polls as economic crisis bites

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Democrat Barack Obama topped two key national polls Thursday which showed the financial crisis reverberating through the White House race and "Palin power" fading for the Republican ticket.

The Democratic hopeful, who has been lacerating rival John McCain over his capacity to rescue the US economy, led 49 to 45 percent in a new poll of likely voters nationwide by Quinnipiac University.

In a CBS/New York Times survey, Obama was up by 48 percent to 43 percent, with the race apparently reverting to the narrow Democratic ascendency seen before two presidential nominating conventions.

The Quinnipiac poll showed that Obama led 54-40 percent among women voters, the key demographic which Palin is targeting for Republicans.

The CBS survey found that independents who favored Obama in late August moved to McCain in days following the Republican convention, then returned to Obama in the last week, the survey showed.

Independents favored Obama over McCain by 46 percent to 41 percent in the survey conducted between September 12 and 16 with a margin of error of three percent.

The CBS poll also showed that despite McCain's attempts to seize the mantle of "change" from Obama, voters were more likely to see the Democratic candidate as an agent of reform -- by 65 to 37 percent.

The poll also found that women have returned to Obama after favoring McCain by five points just two weeks ago. Obama now leads McCain by 54 percent to 38 percent among all women.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080918/pl_afp/usvote_080918155224;_ylt=AjHPAYC1cFaFVIpnz80.Czdh24cA

It seems Palin may be nothing more than a flash in the pan. She'll get the Evangelical vote, but a majority of them were voting McCain anyway.

McCain's selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate had rocked the race and electrified the conservative base, pushing the Republican into the lead in polls and spreading panic among some Democrats.

But recent opinion snapshots polls appear to show Palin's injection of momentum for McCain diminishing.

"Senator Obama is right back where he was before the so-called convention bounces with a four-point lead," said Maurice Carroll, director the Quinnipiac University polling institute.

 

[p4poetic]

Barack Obama :)

 

[Amp1]

Barack, Wa Hoo!

 

[Moonbear]

She'll get the Evangelical vote, but a majority of them were voting McCain anyway.

I think the concern is that they wouldn't bother coming out to the polls at all, because they weren't very strongly supportive of McCain either. They wouldn't vote for Obama, but they might not have voted for anyone. Bush certainly knew that mobilizing them to the polls can make or break a close campaign.

Though, I haven't seen anything BUT negative attack ads from Obama. They've just gotten worse recently. Maybe the ads are different regionally and he already figures he's pissed off the West Virginians so has nothing to lose than try to discredit McCain. They sure aren't going to win him any votes here. If anything, it turns more people off when you start getting as nasty as he has. His ads are deliberately misquoting McCain and Palin or deliberately misinterpreting their statements. It's just plain ugly.

The negative McCain ads I've seen haven't been so bad. They just question Obama's experience, which people were doing anyway, and is a legitimate concern. Obviously, he couldn't keep doing that after bringing Palin on board, since that's going to backfire now. So instead of taking cheap shots like Obama is, he's focusing on their strengths in the ads.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

His ads are deliberately misquoting McCain and Palin or deliberately misinterpreting their statements. It's just plain ugly.

Are you sure they are misquoting anyone? McCain has telling some unbelievable whoppers. And Obama is more truthful according to Gokul's fact checks.

 

[Gokul43201]

15 is a pretty low limit.

If only 269 Bush voters had voted for Gore in 2000, he would have won Florida by 1 vote and the electoral college by 49 electoral votes.

Yes, 15 is really low. I picked 15 in the original poll in response to some statements that the race was going to be really close, and because it looked like it might come down to how NV, NM and CO went.

Incidentally, the current RCP margin is smaller than 15 EVs.