PeterDonis said:
the semi-major axis and orbital period of the Earth-Moon system depend on the total energy
I should probably expand on this some. There are three main stores of energy (more precisely, mechanical energy) in the Earth-Moon system (if we view things from the standpoint of an inertial frame centered on the Earth): the Moon's orbital energy (kinetic + potential), the Moon's spin energy, and the Earth's spin energy. Heuristically, the processes involved in tidal locking and dissipation work like this:
If the Moon's rotation and revolution periods don't match, there will be torques that act to make them the same. This process conserves total mechanical energy, but transfers energy from the Moon's spin energy to the Moon's orbital energy (assuming that the system started with the Moon rotating much faster than it revolves around the Earth). There will also be dissipation within the Moon during this process, which transfers energy from the Moon's spin into heat, reducing the total mechanical energy of the system.
If the Earth's rotation period does not match the Moon's period of revolution around the Earth, there will be torques that act to make them the same. This process conserves total energy, but transfers energy from the Earth's spin energy to the Moon's orbital energy. There will also be dissipation within the Earth during this process, which transfers energy from the Earth's spin into heat, reducing the total mechanical energy of the system.
Once the Earth's rotation, the Moon's rotation, and the Moon's revolution periods all match, we have a zero torque equilibrium. The system might oscillate about this equilibrium, but that process conserves total mechanical energy. However, there will also still be dissipation in the system, both due to the oscillations, if any, and (a much smaller effect) due to the system's emission of gravitational waves, which happens even at the zero torque equilibrium. Dissipation acts to convert all three types of mechanical energy into either heat (if it's due to oscillation about the zero torque equilibrium) or gravitational wave energy. In either case, it reduces the total mechanical energy of the system.
During the first two phases described above, while dissipation is reducing the total mechanical energy of the system, there is also exchange of mechanical energy going on that is increasing the orbital energy of the Moon (at the expense of the Moon's and Earth's spin energy), which increases the semi-major axis and orbital period. So during these phases, the semi-major axis and orbital period are increasing while the total mechanical energy is decreasing.
During the third phase described above, there is no longer any net exchange of mechanical energy (I say "net" because there will still be some exchange during oscillations about the zero torque equilibrium, but they net out to zero over a complete cycle), so the reduction of total mechanical energy decreases the semi-major axis and orbital period. So during this phase, the semi-major axis, orbital period, and total mechanical energy are all decreasing. This is the main phase I was thinking of in the remark of mine that I quoted at the start of this post. And it should be evident that this implies that (1) the zero torque equilibrium point depends on the total mechanical energy, and (2) there is no minimum of the total mechanical energy (other than the Moon getting inside the Roche limit and breaking up).