devil-fire said:
*off topic*
yonoz, what's this i read in the news paper about calls for the prime minister to resign and huge investigations into how the conflict played out? are these things that have a lot of weight behind them or is this just a vary vocal, loud, small minority?
Israel's security is currently perceived to be based on 2 factors: intelligence and deterrence. The consensus right now is that some deterrence was lost by allowing Hizbullah to keep launching rockets during the entire campaign.
About two months before the conflict I took part in a very large exercise by the Northern Command that played out a scenario that started off identically to the latest conflict. The Chief of Staff and Security Minister were present at some parts. The new Northern Command commander presented his operational plans and they were played out. We were preparing for the inevitable confrontation with Hizbullah. However, when the real confrontation broke out those plans were not activated. Instead, someone chose to rely on air power and wait with the ground maneouver. You do not need to be a military expert to understand from what intelligence people term "the fire wars" (as opposed to a standard war in which the fire effort complements a maneouver effort) - Kosovo, Grapes of Wrath, the Gulf Wars - that air power alone does not achieve much. Someone held back on the ground maneouvers despite the established fact that they are necessary for the end of rocket fire into Israel and hence a decisive end to the hostilities. The way it should have played out: Israeli ground maneouver, appalled world sends emergency peacekeeping force, Hizbullah becomes a political party, everyone wins. Now it seems to Hizbullah their strategy has payed off, and they are rearming and preparing for the next round. We've yet to see whether the other parties will allow that to happen. This is just a part of a bigger picture that's still being played out.
Like a beheaded chicken, a military in a conflict with no orders runs around aimlessly. Soldiers complain of daily changes of orders and theatres. The soldier on the ground does not watch CNN and has little knowledge of the latest diplomatic developments.
The bad decision making joins the usual complaints about the military's preparedness. The IDF relies heavily on the reserves. Naturally, when reserve units are called up they require some time for excercises and most importantly logistics. In this sense the IDF is chronically ill prepared. It's a fact of nature that reserve storage depots are run by useless NCOs and regulars. This is nothing new, when something is not in use it tends to deteriorate and decay - militaries are no different. The reserve call-up too was delayed, and the units entered combat ill-prepared.
The current public campaigns call out for the Prime Minister, Security Minister and Chief of Staff to resign. The head of the "Peace Now" movement has commented that the political right is behind some public demonstrations in order to weaken the government and prevent the West Bank pullout. BTW, Olmert said that pullout is no longer at the top of his priorities. He said the government is currently busy in a massive aid initiative to strengthen the battered north. It seems Olmert has to pay a political price to avoid being seen as a defeatist.
The realists are calling for our equivalent of a royal commission. Such de-facto commissions, independent and headed by a former supreme court judge, have previously been set up to investigate events such as the Yom-Kippur war and Israel's role in the Sabra and Shatila massacres. The government is trying to hold out and limit the commission's mandate so it does not investigate the decision-making. One good argument is that the conflict has not ended yet, the decision making should be judged after we see the fruits of the diplomatic effort - the exact reason for the military campaign's delays. Olmert needs the UN, Europe and Lebanon to stop dragging their feet and give him something to present to the Israeli public, or he will lose much power to the right wing parties.
or or actually - WTF, mate?
