Will IDF succeed in their mission?

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Thanks for the answers. Hezbolah are walking a fine line atm, IMO it would pay them better to play the diplomacy game without cost to Lebanese lives. I think what you are suggesting is something that nearly everyone wants outside of the Middle East, we live in interesting times sadly.

As long as it's a "prodless" discussion.

I deserve that

Haifa is a wonderful city, a wholesome multicultural antithesis to the young, fast paced, exhibitionistic, alienating Tel-Aviv. I've made many friends from there in the army and at university, it's one of the few cities where I would feel comfortable raising a family. Where do you live?

Portsmouth or just outside, we're twinned with Duisburg, Haifa and Toulon. In the Southsea (the southern tip of Portsmouth) show of 2005 they had a a whole section devoted to Haifa and Middle East friendship between the city, some embassadors we're even invited to attend the city where they were greated by the Mayor and other dignitaries.

 

[Yonoz]

One thing to consider that brings some hope into this is that Hizbullah has a great opportunity to become a demilitarised political party. It would be wise for them because they can squeeze some major concessions from the Lebanese and other governments, to leverage their political stature. Of course that's up to the Ayatollahs in Iran, so there's a very slim chance.

 

[kyleb]

Putting hope in a very slim chance generally doesn't pay off well. Regardless, I am curious how you figure Iran has the final say on Hizballah?

 

[Yonoz]

Putting hope in a very slim chance generally doesn't pay off well. Regardless, I am curious how you figure Iran has the final say on Hizballah?

Hizbullah is in fact the baby of the Revolutionary Guard, the Iranian security service responsible for such acts as the http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=273898&contrassID=2&subContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0" :

The Iranian foreign service provided much of the diplomatic cover for the operation. There was an unusual number of Iranian couriers coming in and out of the country before the bombing, with some staying longer than usual in Argentina, and there was a dramatic increase in telephone traffic between various Iranian elements in Argentina and Iran in the days leading up to the bombing.

Feel free to extrapolate Iran's involvement in the current situation in Lebanon from this. Hopefully when this is over some intelligence data will be disclosed to the foreign press. Unlike Iran, Israel does not attack embassies and diplomatic staff, not even by proxy.
Even if Hizbullah decided for some reason to disobey Iran, it would risk finding itself with a fraction of its funding (Iran funds it in dozens of millions of dollars annually) and material supplies. The Revolutionary Guard trains Hizbullah fighters, especially in the use of Iranian provided weapons, and it has been disclosed that the C-802 anti-ship missiles are fired by Iranian personnel - again, feel free to extrapolate to other types of weapons. There are still many Revolutionary Guard personnel in Lebanon, some of them married widows of Hizbullah KIAs. Most of Hizbullah's ground-ground rockets are Iranian supplied or made. BTW, we have yet to see the full capabilities of their rocket array. The Lebanese and other Arab press openly speak of Hizbullah as a proxy for Iran, it's quite clear who's pulling this puppet's strings.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Actually it did during the Lavon affair, agents working for Mossad, planted fire bombs in embassy/diplomatic buildings to try and derail Britains withdrawal from the Suez canal, FYI.

EDIT:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavon_Affair

Aman decided to activate the network in the spring of 1954. On July 2, a post office in Alexandria was firebombed, and on July 14, the U.S. Information Agency libraries in Alexandria and Cairo, and a British-owned theater were bombed. The bombs themselves were homemade, consisting of bags containing acid placed over nitroglycerine. The bombs were inserted into books, and placed on the shelves of the libraries just before closing time. Several hours later, as the acid ate through the bags, the bombs would explode. They did little damage to the targets and caused no injuries or deaths. Egyptian authorities arrested one suspect, Robert Dassa, when his bomb accidentally ignited prematurely in his pocket. Having searched his apartment, they found incriminating evidence and names of accomplices to the operation. Several suspects were arrested, including Egyptian Jews and undercover Israelis.

 

[kyleb]

Yonoz, surely we can agree that the occupation of Lebanon is what birthed Hizballah; and of course they work as a proxy for Iran, but how do you get from there to your claim that Iran holds final say over Hizballah's future?

 

[Yonoz]

Actually it did during the Lavon affair, agents working for Mossad, planted fire bombs in embassy/diplomatic buildings to try and derail Britains withdrawal from the Suez canal, FYI.

EDIT:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavon_Affair

Those are not embassies and do not hold diplomatic staff. That operation was not authorized by the government. From the same article:

In meetings with prime minister Moshe Sharett, secretary of defense Pinhas Lavon denied any knowledge of the operation. When intelligence chief Gibli contradicted Lavon, Sharrett commissioned a board of inquiry consisting of Israeli Supreme Court Justice Isaac Olshan and the first chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Yaakov Dori that was unable to find conclusive evidence that Lavon had authorized the operation. Lavon tried to fix the blame on Shimon Peres, who was the secretary general of the defense ministry, and Gibli for insubordination and criminal negligence. Sharett resolved the dilemma by siding with Peres, after which Lavon resigned. Former prime minister David Ben-Gurion succeeded Lavon as minister of defense.

In April of 1960, a review of minutes from the inquiry found inconsistencies and possibly a fraudulent document in Gibli's original testimony that seemed to support Lavon's account of events. During this time, it also came to light that Seidenberg (the Israeli agent running Operation Suzannah in Egypt), had committed perjury during the original inquiry. Seidenberg was also suspected of betraying the group to Egyptian authorities; though the charges were never proven, he was eventually sentenced to a jail term of 10 years. Ben-Gurion scheduled closed hearings with a new board of inquiry chaired by Chaim Cohen, a supreme court justice.

This inquiry found that the perjury indeed had been committed, and that Lavon had not authorized the operation. Sharett and Levi Eshkol tried to issue a statement that would placate both Lavon and those who had opposed him. Ben-Gurion refused to accept the compromise and viewed it as a divisive play within the Mapai party. After another investigative committee sided with the Cohen inquiry, Ben-Gurion resigned from his post as defense minister. This led to the expulsion of Lavon from the Histadrut labor union and an early call for new elections which changed the political structure in Israel.

It should be noted that the specifics of Operation Suzannah were not public at the time of the political upheaval.

 

[Yonoz]

Yonoz, surely we can agree that the occupation of Lebanon is what birthed Hizballah; and of course they work as a proxy for Iran, but how do you get from there to your claim that Iran holds final say over Hizballah's future?

Hizbullah's power is derived from Iran's funding and supplies. If Hizbullah act against Iran's wishes, Iran can cut this lifeline, and Hizbullah will be unable to support its various power structures.

 

[Yonoz]

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3289295,00.html"

Roitman said soldiers dealt with morality during war time as the IDF's policy: "What really bothered us is that in all of the villages we passed through the houses are standing and are untouched. The IDF's morality during war is exacting a very high price. We can flatten the territory, without ground forces, but from the air."

 

[Yonoz]

Check out that http://84.95.240.242/~hnn/index.php?module=albums;task=view;id=1037" , near the end, then have a look in the back seat. Everything was found in civilian homes except, obviously, the vehicle and its contents. Those are AT-3 Sager anti-armour rockets, the suitcases contain their control unit and sights. There's also a TAO launcher (naughty Americans) and some other weapons. There have been much more impressive findings, including an intelligence gathering room with expensive optical equipment such as a Thermovision-1000 unit (French) that can find armour 14 km away in the darkness.

 

[Yonoz]

Take a look what the http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/10/world/middleeast/10river.html" . Yep, that's the same Red Cross that denies membership from Israel's ambulance service, Magen David Adom, on the grounds that its insignia - a red star of David - is not recognised. A red crescent, of course, poses no problem, and neither does helping Hizbullah it seems.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Those are not embassies and do not hold diplomatic staff. That operation was not authorized by the government. From the same article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Information_Agency

Actually the information agency is a governemnt body or was in the US, since it's staff are on foreign shores I'd say they were working for the government and thus diplomats, anyway Mossad and various agencies don't always ask the government for permission, I think the point is that you make an assertion Israel doesn't stoop as low as some people only to find they have in the past.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Take a look what the http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/10/world/middleeast/10river.html" . Yep, that's the same Red Cross that denies membership from Israel's ambulance service, Magen David Adom, on the grounds that its insignia - a red star of David - is not recognised. A red crescent, of course, poses no problem, and neither does helping Hizbullah it seems.

The barbarians helping wounded men, treating there own people why I'm horrified, imagine if ambulance men start doing there job. During the second world war stretcher bearers would carry back Germans as well as English, and in Vietnam and Korea doctors could be found treating the native fighters, I supose you could spin them as traitors if you tried hard enough. People are wounded, your an ambulance man, you do your job, you don't stop to ask a man who's legs off what side he's fighting for.

I don't understand what you mean about the insignia, do you mean that the Lebanese are racists? Or something else?

 

[Yonoz]

The barbarians helping wounded men, treating there own people why I'm horrified, imagine if ambulance men start doing there job. During the second world war stretcher bearers would carry back Germans as well as English, and in Vietnam and Korea doctors could be found treating the native fighters, I supose you could spin them as traitors if you tried hard enough. People are wounded, your an ambulance man, you do your job, you don't stop to ask a man who's legs off what side he's fighting for.

The problem is that they are helping fighters hide their true identity and pass themselves off as civilians. Wounded men should be treated, there are Lebanese civilians being treated in Israeli hospitals too, but those Red Cross workers were aiding those fighters to hide themselves among civilians - not exactly something you would expect from a neutral aid organisation, to say the least.

I don't understand what you mean about the insignia, do you mean that the Lebanese are racists? Or something else?

I mean the red star of David was used as a petty excuse to deny membership in the Red Cross from MDA. It was only on June 22nd of this year that MDA received full membership, and it cannot use the star of David outside Israel. Why the foot-dragging (MDA has been around longer than Israel)? The Arab members objected to adding the star of David as an official insignia.

 

[Yonoz]

anyway Mossad and various agencies don't always ask the government for permission, I think the point is that you make an assertion Israel doesn't stoop as low as some people only to find they have in the past.

That is wrong, such operations always require government approval. The fact Ben-Gurion established a commission and a second inquiry proves the government's disapproval of the affair. I would say they were being quite transparent, considering the contemporary scandals in other nations.

 

[Yonoz]

Here's another "[MEDIA=youtube[/URL]. I've seen many similar events during my time in Gaza, once our air drone captured videos of an ambulance used as a molotov-cocktail supply vehicle.

 

[Astronuc]

Check out that civilian Nissan[/URL], near the end, then have a look in the back seat. Everything was found in civilian homes except, obviously, the vehicle and its contents. Those are AT-3 Sager anti-armour rockets, the suitcases contain their control unit and sights. There's also a TAO launcher (naughty Americans) and some other weapons. There have been much more impressive findings, including an intelligence gathering room with expensive optical equipment such as a Thermovision-1000 unit (French) that can find armour 14 km away in the darkness.

I think that's TOW. An expert pointed out that Hizbollah is now using some fairly sophisticated weaponry, particularly 'guided anti-tank rockets', which certainly indicates the support of third parties. Now in all fairness, the third parties could be anyone (although it is widely considered to by Syria and Iran, and perhaps others).

As for the 'naughty Americans' (as well as third parties), one must realize that military weapons are abundant and that it is very easy to get sophisticated weapons (American, Chinese, Russian, S. African, Israeli, . . .) if one has the money. There is a huge black market in weapons trafficking, which is intertwined with the trafficking of drugs and people (women and children). Why this would be a surprise to anyone . . . - well it shouldn't unless one is not paying attention to the situation in the world.

 

[devil-fire]

actualy the "black market" of weapons includes mostly older weapons that have been in circulation for some time (the weapons from collaps of the USSR for example) and weapons that are simple enough to be reproduced in a well equiped machine shop. for sophisticated weapons like modern anti-tank systems, the distribution includes mostly states and powerfull states at that. the chance of a privatly owned and operated organization first getting a modern american anti-tank weapon, then reverse engineering it, then replicating it is unlikly. its more likly the americans sold the weapon to the french who "misplaced" it where a chinese national found it, managed to reproduce it and gave them to iran who in turn gave them to hezbollah.

why would someone who traffics/sells drugs and sex slaves need anti-tank weapons anyway?

edit: sorry i forgot my point. my point is that the americans definatly wouldn't want hezbollah to have something like that but someone important should still be blamed

 

[mbrmbrg]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525850241&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull"

http://www.aish.com/movies/PhotoFraud.asp"

I usually expect less "spin" from jpost than aish, but here I think the aish slideshow does an excellent job pinpointing the exact problem with the photos.

I have a book, How to Lie With Statistics on how to spot (or create ) misleading stats; does anyone know of handy tips on how to spot doctored photos?

 

[Yonoz]

I think that's TOW.

Correct.

An expert pointed out that Hizbollah is now using some fairly sophisticated weaponry, particularly 'guided anti-tank rockets', which certainly indicates the support of third parties. Now in all fairness, the third parties could be anyone (although it is widely considered to by Syria and Iran, and perhaps others).

The http://www.army-technology.com/projects/kornet/" is possessed only by China, Iran and North Korea:

Hizballah seriously damaged a Saar 5-class missile ship named the "Spear" that was helping to enforce Israel's blockade of Lebanon on 14 July 2006. One Israeli sailor was killed and three were initially missing after the attack. Israel initially believed that an aerial drone armed with explosives hit the warship, but it became clear that Hizballah had used an Iranian-made C-802 cruise missile to strike the vessel. Another Hizballah radar-guided anti-ship missile hit and sank a nearby Cambodian merchant ship around the time the Spear was struck. Twelve Egyptian sailors were pulled from the water by passing ships.

As for the 'naughty Americans' (as well as third parties), one must realize that military weapons are abundant and that it is very easy to get sophisticated weapons (American, Chinese, Russian, S. African, Israeli, . . .) if one has the money. There is a huge black market in weapons trafficking, which is intertwined with the trafficking of drugs and people (women and children). Why this would be a surprise to anyone . . . - well it shouldn't unless one is not paying attention to the situation in the world.

I was being sarcastic.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

The problem is that they are helping fighters hide their true identity and pass themselves off as civilians. Wounded men should be treated, there are Lebanese civilians being treated in Israeli hospitals too, but those Red Cross workers were aiding those fighters to hide themselves among civilians - not exactly something you would expect from a neutral aid organisation, to say the least.

Yeah but then I don't see that as anything unusual, would happen if they were treating Israelis and some Army members turned up and begged a lift, what do you say no? They have guns you know

I mean the red star of David was used as a petty excuse to deny membership in the Red Cross from MDA. It was only on June 22nd of this year that MDA received full membership, and it cannot use the star of David outside Israel. Why the foot-dragging (MDA has been around longer than Israel)? The Arab members objected to adding the star of David as an official insignia.

Turn it around if a Syrian red cross with a red sickle moon on it's flag and arabic writing wanted to join the Red Cross, do you think Israelis might protest they change their red cross flag? It's mildly raccist either way IMO, zionists would probably complain bitterly that an international group had a muslim insignia.

 

[mbrmbrg]

Turn it around if a Syrian red cross with a red sickle moon on it's flag and arabic writing wanted to join the Red Cross, do you think Israelis might protest they change their red cross flag? It's mildly raccist either way IMO, zionists would probably complain bitterly that an international group had a muslim insignia.

Ummm... Actually, the Interntn'l Red Cross's emblem in Arabic countries is the Red Crescent, which is the red sickle moon of which you speak. What does arabic writing have to do with anything?

International Conference incorporates red crystal emblem
The 29th International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent has amended the Movement's statutes to incorporate the additional emblem of the red crystal, which has the same status as the red cross and red crescent. Read more about the emblem.

http://www.icrc.org/eng"

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Ok that's racist then, if one group has a status above another then that's unfair. I see what your getting at it is in fact a racist delineation, a double standard if the crescent is used so should the star be used, unless there's a PC reason not to do so, fair enough.

 

[mbrmbrg]

Schrödinger's Dog, I don't want this to sound patronizing or anything, because I really mean it: You have my respect, man.

 

[Astronuc]

Ok that's racist then, if one group has a status above another then that's unfair. I see what your getting at it is in fact a racist delineation, a double standard if the crescent is used so should the star be used, unless there's a PC reason not to do so, fair enough.

It's more a preference for a symbol which has religious connotations. Red Cross in predominantly Christian cultures/nations, Red Crescent in Islamic cultures/nations, and Red Star of David in Israel. In some countries, like Syria, Lebanon, and even Iraq have Christian populations living along side Muslim populations, which has been the case for about 13 centuries.


Israeli Cabinet Approves U.N. Plan for Lebanon
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5640861

Weekend Edition Sunday, August 13, 2006 · The Israeli Cabinet accepts the U.N. resolution mandating a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. But until it goes into effect Monday morning, Israel is making a last-minute push toward the Litani River. Hezbollah says it would abide by the resolution but will fight Israeli soldiers as long as they remain on Lebanese soil.

OK people, time to put the guns down and stop fighting. I think we can conclude that violence is not the solution.

 

[Astronuc]

I was being sarcastic.

But you raise a good point. There are a lot of weapons out there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_modern_armament_manufacturers


The only way these guys can stay in business is for people to use their products - year after year.

Also another recent example -
'The Wonga Coup': Scrapping for Oil Profit in Equatorial Guinea
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5629868

Fresh Air from WHYY, August 9, 2006 · Journalist Adam Roberts of The Economist talks about his new book, The Wonga Coup: Guns, Thugs and a Ruthless Determination to Create Mayhem in an Oil-Rich Corner of Africa.

Roberts tells the story of a group of mercenaries and merchants who hatched a plan to topple the dictatorship of Equatorial Guinea in order to reap the profits from the country's oil resources.

Interesting comment about the "private military industry" in and around Washington DC.

 

[Astronuc]

I heard today that pressure is being put on Syria and Bashar al-Assad to help to get Hezbollah (Hizbullah) to hand back the two kidnapped soldiers, so the IDF/Israel may yet succeed in this matter, assuming the soldiers are still alive.

Meanwhile, I just read this and more like or or actually - WTF, mate?

Hezbollah Head Didn't Foresee Such a War
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5719868

BEIRUT, Lebanon August 27, 2006, 2:22 p.m. ET · Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said in a TV interview aired Sunday that he would not have ordered the capture of two Israeli soldiers if he had known it would lead to such a war.

Hezbollah guerrillas killed three Israeli soldiers and seized two more in a cross-border raid July 12, which sparked 34 days of fighting that ended Aug. 14. Five other Israeli soldiers were killed as they pursued the militants back into Lebanon.

"We did not think, even 1 percent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 ... that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not," he said in an interview with Lebanon's New TV station.

Nasrallah also said the United Nations and Italy already had initiated "contacts" about beginning negotiations on a prisoner swap.

 

[Yonoz]

We are at a very interesting historical crossroads.

 

[devil-fire]

*off topic*

yonoz, what's this i read in the news paper about calls for the prime minister to resign and huge investigations into how the conflict played out? are these things that have a lot of weight behind them or is this just a vary vocal, loud, small minority?

 

[Yonoz]

*off topic*

yonoz, what's this i read in the news paper about calls for the prime minister to resign and huge investigations into how the conflict played out? are these things that have a lot of weight behind them or is this just a vary vocal, loud, small minority?

Israel's security is currently perceived to be based on 2 factors: intelligence and deterrence. The consensus right now is that some deterrence was lost by allowing Hizbullah to keep launching rockets during the entire campaign.
About two months before the conflict I took part in a very large exercise by the Northern Command that played out a scenario that started off identically to the latest conflict. The Chief of Staff and Security Minister were present at some parts. The new Northern Command commander presented his operational plans and they were played out. We were preparing for the inevitable confrontation with Hizbullah. However, when the real confrontation broke out those plans were not activated. Instead, someone chose to rely on air power and wait with the ground maneouver. You do not need to be a military expert to understand from what intelligence people term "the fire wars" (as opposed to a standard war in which the fire effort complements a maneouver effort) - Kosovo, Grapes of Wrath, the Gulf Wars - that air power alone does not achieve much. Someone held back on the ground maneouvers despite the established fact that they are necessary for the end of rocket fire into Israel and hence a decisive end to the hostilities. The way it should have played out: Israeli ground maneouver, appalled world sends emergency peacekeeping force, Hizbullah becomes a political party, everyone wins. Now it seems to Hizbullah their strategy has payed off, and they are rearming and preparing for the next round. We've yet to see whether the other parties will allow that to happen. This is just a part of a bigger picture that's still being played out.
Like a beheaded chicken, a military in a conflict with no orders runs around aimlessly. Soldiers complain of daily changes of orders and theatres. The soldier on the ground does not watch CNN and has little knowledge of the latest diplomatic developments.
The bad decision making joins the usual complaints about the military's preparedness. The IDF relies heavily on the reserves. Naturally, when reserve units are called up they require some time for excercises and most importantly logistics. In this sense the IDF is chronically ill prepared. It's a fact of nature that reserve storage depots are run by useless NCOs and regulars. This is nothing new, when something is not in use it tends to deteriorate and decay - militaries are no different. The reserve call-up too was delayed, and the units entered combat ill-prepared.
The current public campaigns call out for the Prime Minister, Security Minister and Chief of Staff to resign. The head of the "Peace Now" movement has commented that the political right is behind some public demonstrations in order to weaken the government and prevent the West Bank pullout. BTW, Olmert said that pullout is no longer at the top of his priorities. He said the government is currently busy in a massive aid initiative to strengthen the battered north. It seems Olmert has to pay a political price to avoid being seen as a defeatist.
The realists are calling for our equivalent of a royal commission. Such de-facto commissions, independent and headed by a former supreme court judge, have previously been set up to investigate events such as the Yom-Kippur war and Israel's role in the Sabra and Shatila massacres. The government is trying to hold out and limit the commission's mandate so it does not investigate the decision-making. One good argument is that the conflict has not ended yet, the decision making should be judged after we see the fruits of the diplomatic effort - the exact reason for the military campaign's delays. Olmert needs the UN, Europe and Lebanon to stop dragging their feet and give him something to present to the Israeli public, or he will lose much power to the right wing parties.