News Will IDF succeed in their mission?

[Anttech]

*off topic*

yonoz, what's this i read in the news paper about calls for the prime minister to resign and huge investigations into how the conflict played out? are these things that have a lot of weight behind them or is this just a vary vocal, loud, small minority?

Well its evident that the war did not play out as expected.

Historically when Israel has flexed its muscles like this, the Arab nations have had to run, hide, and sign treaties because the Israeli's have had so much dominance. This is not the case any more. To save face the Israeli government has *had* to ask the UN to intervene before the PM's mandate of 'Disarming Hezbollah' and the return of the captured Israeli soliders, was fulfilled. The public in Israel arent stupid, and have seen this, thus the PM *needs* the UN to be able to control the south, to save face.

Other interesting developments:

THE Hezbollah leader claimed yesterday that the guerrilla organisation would not have kidnapped two Israeli soldiers had it known what Israel’s response would be.

In an interview with Lebanese television last night, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said: “We did not think, even 1 per cent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 . . . that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not.”

<snip>

The UN resolution that led to the August 14 truce suggested Hezbollah must free the two Israelis and that a solution be found for prisoners in Israel. Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper, reported that Israel was willing to discuss an exchange. However, an Israeli official said last night: “There are no negotiations over the exchange of prisoners.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,251-2331980,00.html

After all that (war, 1500 people dead), there may well be an exchange

 

[Yonoz]

devil-fire, for a good insight into Israel's internal affairs you may want to look at the http://www.haaretz.com/" op-ed section.

 

[Gokul43201]

Yonoz, do you defend your use of cluster bombs in Lebanon? I haven't heard a good argument in support of such action, nor am i particularly aware (it's hard to tell from news reports) which specific kinds of cluster munitions were used. Can you tell us, and do you think it really was necessary?

 

[Yonoz]

Yonoz, do you defend your use of cluster bombs in Lebanon? I haven't heard a good argument in support of such action, nor am i particularly aware (it's hard to tell from news reports) which specific kinds of cluster munitions were used. Can you tell us, and do you think it really was necessary?

Good Question.
You may recall that when you asked me what types of munitions are used, I replied it can be anything from a small missile to a cluster bomb. Cluster munitions are not illegal in any way and are the absolute bulk of bombs used by virtually every military across the globe. The most common types are the American CBU series air-launched free-fall bomb and the M-26 artillery rocket - the latter being the subject of the latest controversy.
The main problem with cluster munitions is that they leave unexploded bomblets. This is not a fault but a designed characteristic. Cluster bombs can be set to open at lower altitudes so that more of the individual units reach the ground before they are armed, effectively acting as mines.
Cluster bombs are mostly useful against infantry, in this type of warfare they definitely give an advantage due to the target characteristics. The alternative to using a cluster munition is to simply use several, larger HE munitions to cover the area that can be covered by a single or a pair of cluster munitions. In this case you have a net amount of perhaps twice or three times of the explosives per a set target area, and increased chance of stray munitions. Furthermore, HE shells and bombs penetrate buildings and can even knock them down, as we saw in Qana. A cluster bomblet will effectively explode on the roof of a house without risking its inhabitants.
Cluster bombs have been used for so long in so many conflicts by so many militaries, I find it hard to believe they will be banned by any international treaty. It would be nice, though, to force the manufacturers to produce munitions that do not leave unexploded bomblets on the ground.
I think the latest controversy regarding the use of M-26 rockets is merely political lip-service. I'd like to see someone tell me that they would rather have several dozen 155mm shells fired at their house than a pair of M-26 rockets.

 

[Hurkyl]

The (possible) problem is that cluster bombs were used when you (presumably) weren't firing at a widespread area, but instead a small target (such as an individual home from which rockets were fired).


Our media claims the U.S. provided you cluster bombs under the restriction that they may only be used against certain targets (such as massed military forces).

So, it's not just whether you used the appropriate weaponry for the job, but whether you were even allowed to use the weaponry you did.

 

[Yonoz]

The (possible) problem is that cluster bombs were used when you (presumably) weren't firing at a widespread area, but instead a small target (such as an individual home from which rockets were fired).

Well if it comes down to that someone in the ministry of security will have to leave their job, just like someone did when they tried selling early warning platforms to the Chinese.

Our media claims the U.S. provided you cluster bombs under the restriction that they may only be used against certain targets (such as massed military forces).

So, it's not just whether you used the appropriate weaponry for the job, but whether you were even allowed to use the weaponry you did.

I hope it won't come down to the letter. I really think it's in everyone's best interests those weapons were used. Artillery shells are cheaper anyway.

 

[Yonoz]

In the mean time, as expected, bits of the UN resolution and cease-fire seem to be http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5297312.stm" into thin air:

Mr Annan said he hoped Israel would withdraw from southern Lebanon once 5,000 UN peacekeepers are on the ground "in the coming days and weeks".

The UN resolution which led to the 14 August ceasefire calls for a 15,000-strong force - significantly larger than its current size of about 2,500.

Here's what Mr. Annan managed to get out of Hizbullah:

Mr Annan also appealed for the "unambiguous and unconditional release" of the two Israeli soldiers whose capture sparked the Israeli offensive.

Mr Annan said he discussed their fate with a Hezbollah MP in Lebanon on Tuesday.

"I believe they are alive," he said.

Funny, I would have thought he could at least get a Red Cross representative to see them by now. I guess terrorists can't really be expected to follow the Geneva conventions. Oh that's right, they're not even terrorists.
Oh well at least we still have hope:

Mr Olmert said he hoped the ceasefire would ultimately lead to a peace deal between Israel and Lebanon.

But Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora all but ruled out relations between the two countries.

"Lebanon will be the last Arab country that could sign a peace agreement with Israel," he said.

A "fire and forget" ceasefire.

 

[Anttech]

Hypocrite:

Israel staged wide-ranging airstrikes and sent commandos into the Hezbollah heartland Saturday as the U.N. raced to begin enforcing its new cease-fire blueprint and stop combat. Airstrikes killed at least 19 people in Lebanon, including 15 in one village, while Hezbollah rockets wounded at least five people in Israel.http://www.informationweek.com/industries/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=16700406&pgno=3&queryText=

BEIRUT, Lebanon — U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said that an Israeli commando raid deep in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley on Saturday violated the U.N. brokered cease-fire deal, putting the six-day cease-fire with Hezbollah guerrillas to a critical test.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1686634/posts

Whatever the Israeli commandos were doing in Baalbek - seeking to capture a Hizbollah leader or interdict arms shipments - their raid underlines the inadequacy of the Security Council's response to the crisis.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/08/21/dl2102.xml

You seem to give such a one sided commentary on this whole subject it is rather disappointing, considering your evident intelligence!

 

[Yonoz]

You seem to give such a one sided commentary on this whole subject it is rather disappointing, considering your evident intelligence!

The blockade on Lebanon is still in effect. When weapons are being smuggled across a blockaded border, they tend to be attacked.

 

[Anttech]

Yonzo it wasnt the border that was attacked, it was a raid deep in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley...

 

[Yonoz]

Yonzo it wasnt the border that was attacked, it was a raid deep in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley...

Commando raids are awfully difficult in the mountaineous border area. Besides, it's better destroying the recipient together with the cargo.

 

[Anttech]

The blockade on Lebanon is still in effect. When weapons are being smuggled across a blockaded border, they tend to be attacked.

Changes to

Commando raids are awfully difficult in the mountaineous border area. Besides, it's better destroying the recipient together with the cargo.

Stop the smoke mirrors please

 

[Yonoz]

Stop the smoke mirrors please

I don't know whether you realize the difficulties in tracking a shipment of weapons in civilian cars in the midst of other civilian vehicles on a mountainous road, or the time it is necessary to plan and carry out a surgical airborne raid, or anyone of a myriad of operational factors that limit the IDF's ability to stop weapons smuggling.

 

[Anttech]

Yonzo that is irrelevant to the fact that you are changing the story of what *actually* happened. The Smoking mirrors comment is directed at that. Not the difficulty of of the IDF to take out Hezbollah AFTER a cease-fire has been decided.

You were making comments on Hezbollah's 'dirty tricks' yet Israel is at it too. I brought you up on it, and you spun it to sound like they were attacking a border crossing adhoc on seeing Hezbollah bring arms into Lebanon(which is what it sounded like). Actually what happened was a pre-meditated long range mission into the heart of Lebanon, which Broke the Cease-fire arrangement.

Anyway, (I think I have said this before) people who live in Glass houses shouldn't throw stones

 

[Yonoz]

Yonzo that is irrelevant to the fact that you are changing the story of what *actually* happened. The Smoking mirrors comment is directed at that. Not the difficulty of of the IDF to take out Hezbollah AFTER a cease-fire has been decided.

I think it is very relevant. The blockade is a completely legal form of dispute [EDIT]not covered by the cease-fire agreement[/EDIT]. It just so happens that smuggled weapons are still smuggled weapons, regardless of their distance from the border. Obviously the operation was difficult enough - that unit had its first casualty in years. You cannot expect Israel to allow Hizbullah to arm itself in blatant violation of a UNSC resolution both Israel and Lebanon accepted.

You were making comments on Hezbollah's 'dirty tricks' yet Israel is at it too. I brought you up on it, and you spun it to sound like they were attacking a border crossing adhoc on seeing Hezbollah bring arms into Lebanon(which is what it sounded like). Actually what happened was a pre-meditated long range mission into the heart of Lebanon, which Broke the Cease-fire arrangement.

I know of no military operations that are not pre-meditated.
Must a blockade include ground troops? No. Do the men smuggling the weapons know the IDF will attack them if possible? Yes. Do civilians pass freely? Yes. Are random vehicles simply attacked? No.

Anyway, (I think I have said this before) people who live in Glass houses shouldn't throw stones

You know I find proverbs too simplistic.

 

[Yonoz]

I just heard on the news a previously unknown Syrian organisation declared they will kidnap Israeli soldiers.
If this practice is not clearly shown to be countereffective, it will be repeated, likely within the next few years (cyrus - that's my opinion and speculation, I hope you can take it).

 

[Yonoz]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...LAH?SITE=PAREA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT"

Six weeks after the end of the Lebanon war, the militant Hezbollah group is facing little on-the-ground pressure to give up its weapons and disarm - despite a U.N. cease-fire resolution demanding just that.

The leaders of a U.N. peacekeeping force in south Lebanon say the job is not theirs. And Lebanon's ill-equipped army, some of whose soldiers wear tin-pot helmets and carry outdated M-16 rifles, shows no signs of diving into a confrontation with battle-hardened Hezbollah fighters.

For now, all sides say it's likely full disarmament will happen only in the future as part of a political solution - despite the U.N. resolution that ended the 34-day war on Aug. 14 and required disarmament.

Outdated M16s? Isn't the M16 the standard sidearm in the US military? It is in the IDF.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/768106.html"

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert intends to raise the issue of Palestinian arms smuggling into the Gaza Strip with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice when she visits Israel next week.

Olmert also urged his ministers yesterday to stop issuing statements about peace negotiations with Syria.

The problem of arms smuggling into the Gaza Strip was raised by Shin Bet security service chief Yuval Diskin during yesterday' cabinet meeting. Diskin said that since the disengagement from Gaza in August 2005, an estimated 19 tons of military grade explosives have been smuggled into Gaza from Sinai.

The Shin Bet chief also said that the Egyptian authorities are aware of the ongoing smuggling, and even know the smugglers' identity, yet have avoided taking any action against them, even when Israel has made specific requests for the detention of key individuals.

Public Security Minister Avi Dichter said that for months, Israelis have been waking up to the sounds of Qassam rockets, and accused the defense establishment of failing to provide an adequate response to the Palestinian rocket threat.

Dichter, who is a resident of Ashkelon, which is within Qassam range, said that although it is not necessary to reoccupy the Gaza Strip, it is imperative for the government to rethink its policies in Gaza in view of the continued rocket attacks.

It seems the writing's on the wall for round 2.