News Will Palin's VP Debate Performance Impact McCain's Campaign?

[LowlyPion]

Here is a rundown on some of the Palin scandals from the NY Daily News:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/toplists/sarah_palin_scandalwatch_whats_true_whats_false/sarah_palin_scandalwatch_whats_true_whats_false.html

Fired the librarian for not banning certain books?

ALLEGATION: Tried to censor public library

VERDICT: SOME TRUTH. Palin, as mayor of Wasilla, discussed the possibility of banning some books. Palin fired the town librarian, but rehired her after residents voiced disapproval. Palin later told a local newspaper that her discussion about book banning was "rhetorical."

Makes it hard to believe that she didn't intervene inappropriately in the Monegan forced resignation.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Election polls are bogus, I hope you realize this.

Yes, this is why candidates, and in particular, political strategists, are so interested in polling data.

 

[castlegates]

The problem I have with polls comes when they get disseminated a few days before an election, or even on the day of an election. People may or may not go to the polls based on some poll that may or may not be correct, or maybe even purposely falsified.

Giving election results before before all polling places are closed I would consider to be inappropriate also.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/516967.html

It's the season for Alaskans to be rewarded just for living here, and this year's take is extra sweet: $3,269, a record share of the state's oil wealth combined with a special cash payout to help with stratospheric energy prices.

I know it would have happened any way but it still must be nice to cut checks for the people you want voting for you. I wonder if Obama or Biden could get away with giving away money.

 

[LowlyPion]

Regarding the Wasilla Librarian,

http://www.adn.com/sarah-palin/story/515512.html

Regarding Subpoenas being issued by the legislature in regard to the legislative investigation into Monegan being pressured to resign after refusing to fire Palin's ex-brother in law.

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/517681.html

Apparently the latest Palin tactic to remove the case from the legislative process to a panel of her own appointees is failing. I see the subpoenas as the legislature's response to Palin's attempt to suborn their authority to the investigation. Palin herself was not subpoenaed, as they were offering her the opportunity to give her account by phone or by being deposed on the campaign trail at her convenience. (But of course that could change if she never finds the time.) And they have dcided to move up the release of whatever report so as not to appear on the eve of the national election.

 

[russ_watters]

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/516967.html

I know it would have happened any way but it still must be nice to cut checks for the people you want voting for you. I wonder if Obama or Biden could get away with giving away money.

Giving away money is the primary selling point of democratic candiates!

Regardless - I don't see your point here. Alaskans always get money. Are you suggesting that if positions were reversed, Obama or Biden would get slammed for it? Absurd.

 

[turbo]

Alaskan GOP are trying to remove the legislator leading the Palin ethics investigation, saying that he has politicized the investigation.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/157439

 

[LowlyPion]

Alaskan GOP are trying to remove the legislator leading the Palin ethics investigation, saying that he has politicized the investigation.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/157439

Yes, but as he has pointed out in the piece I posted a link to, the Independent Counsel looking into the matter is the one asking the questions and writing the report.

"The key point here is, I'm not doing the investigation. Steve Branchflower is," French said, adding Branchflower is free to reach any conclusions the facts support.

Apparently French is moving the date of the report up 3 weeks, so as not to appear to be a "just before the election" backstabbing. (Maybe just a month before one?)

And of course it is politicized. It was all politics back in July as well when it was begun. And before that it was apparently vindictive politics and some kind of twisted part of a family feud.

But the investigation was begun well before her selection by McCain. And Palin's attempt to subvert the Legislative process now with the recent disingenuous complaint against herself, to try and grab jurisdiction doesn't look good at all. (Shades of Nixon's sorry attempts to stonewall Special Prosecutor Cox by firing him and the Attorney General he rode into town on?)

Just think if Palin had cooperated as she said she would, it could be over by now even.

I must say these machinations certainly look at odds with the "Refom" image McCain/Palin want to project. Sadly it looks like the same business as usual cover-ups that Washington DC has become all too familiar with.

 

[LightbulbSun]

Bogus? As opposed to non bogus polls? Explain why you think these polls are any different than any other opinion polls.

A) They're not as scientific as surveys.
B) Surveys will ask questions in different ways to control for the "intangible" factors, which polls do not do.

C) Surveys will write down what the person says instead of checking their answer off as "other" if they don't choose from one of their predetermined answers.

D) Polls will twist questions any way they want to just to skew public perception.

For more information about polls, visit the following links:

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html"

http://www.veoh.com/videos/v15836386ZYfpPMcW"

 

[LowlyPion]

A) They're not as scientific as surveys.

Fwiw, the Gallup polls at least do apply some methodology to the gathering of their data. If you are interested here are their criteria, and how they attempt to normalize their data with appropriate population selection.:
http://media.gallup.com/PDF/FAQ/HowArePolls.pdf

As to today's Poll numbers - which I imagine you breathlessly await, it's Obama 47% and McCain 45%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110047/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Shrinks-Points.aspx

 

[Evo]

This site covers all of the top polls and is updated constantly, you might want to bookmark it.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08.htm

 

[Gokul43201]

Giving away money is the primary selling point of democratic candiates!

True! Like tax cuts and credits funded by China and Japan. The dems just love to give those away.

 

[mheslep]

A) They're not as scientific as surveys.
B) Surveys will ask questions in different ways to control for the "intangible" factors, which polls do not do.

C) Surveys will write down what the person says instead of checking their answer off as "other" if they don't choose from one of their predetermined answers.

D) Polls will twist questions any way they want to just to skew public perception.

For more information about polls, visit the following links:

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html"

http://www.veoh.com/videos/v15836386ZYfpPMcW"

Yes, an opinion I found believable: accuracy is not the pollsters primary motivation until a week or two before the election when their polls get checked against results and their reputations are at stake; prior to that they're temptation to shape opinions rather than measure them is overwhelming for many.

 

[mheslep]

True! Like tax cuts and credits funded by China and Japan. The dems just love to give those away.

One does not 'give away' a tax cut, unless you presuppose that the money is primarily the governments to begin with.

 

[Astronuc]

One does not 'give away' a tax cut, unless you presuppose that the money is primarily the governments to begin with.

Government prints the money - it's theirs. It's a bit like Ceasar and his coins. And there was some bloke way back when who said - give unto Ceasar, what is Ceasar's, give unto the higher authority what is his or His as the case maybe.

 

[Gokul43201]

One does not 'give away' a tax cut, unless you presuppose that the money is primarily the governments to begin with.

One doesn't get primary education, police protection, fire protection, highway access, national defense, etc. for free. You do owe the Government.

 

[Evo]

Yes, an opinion I found believable: accuracy is not the pollsters primary motivation until a week or two before the election when their polls get checked against results and their reputations are at stake; prior to that they're temptation to shape opinions rather than measure them is overwhelming for many.

Opinion polls are just opinions.

I have been in some of these polls before and they do a lot of questioning before you answer the questions. Once I was told that they already had my 'demographic' filled so could not be included. I did find that they will call you for later polls. I also was a "Neilson's TV Ratings" family for several years until I stopped bothering to fill out my viewing diary regulary. I guess you get put on some type of sucker list once they know you will spend 30 minutes giving your opinions.

 

[Cyrus]

Opinion polls are just opinions.

I have been in some of these polls before and they do a lot of questioning before you answer the questions. Once I was told that they already had my 'demographic' filled so could not be included. I did find that they will call you for later polls. I also was a "Neilson's TV Ratings" family for several years until I stopped bothering to fill out my viewing diary regulary. I guess you get put on some type of sucker list once they know you will spend 30 minutes giving your opinions.

I got a call one time from someone wanting to do similar ratings for tv or radio. They sent a little diary to my house. After I sent it back they sent me five bucks taped inside an envelope!

 

[Evo]

I got a call one time from someone wanting to do similar ratings for tv or radio. They sent a little diary to my house. After I sent it back they sent me five bucks taped inside an envelope!

I'm amazed that it wasn't stolen by someone in the post office. I received a dollar bill once for a poll I was in, how'd you get five?

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Giving away money is the primary selling point of democratic candiates!

Regardless - I don't see your point here. Alaskans always get money. Are you suggesting that if positions were reversed, Obama or Biden would get slammed for it? Absurd.

Lol... I said I know that it would have happened anyway. They get money yearly. Its just convenient (and I don't mean in any conspiratorial way) that she gets to give all the residents of AK extra large checks this year. And I'm not saying Obama or Biden would be slammed for it but that they haven't a similar means of endearing themselves to their constituents.

Its just a side note. I'm sure that McCain and Palin would have taken AK either way.

 

[castlegates]

If you like polls

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

 

[russ_watters]

It is tough to know how much of that is McCain's convention bounce and how much is the fading of Obama's convention bounce - probably some of both. The trend will settle out over the next few days as McCain's "bounce" peaks, then fades, so we'll probably end up with the virtual dead heat we had before the conventions.

 

[russ_watters]

Lol... I said I know that it would have happened anyway. They get money yearly. Its just convenient (and I don't mean in any conspiratorial way) that she gets to give all the residents of AK extra large checks this year. And I'm not saying Obama or Biden would be slammed for it but that they haven't a similar means of endearing themselves to their constituents.

Since they get money every year, how does continuing that "endear" her to her constituents? I'm sure they know that what they get has virtually nothing to do with who is in office in AK.

 

[castlegates]

It is tough to know how much of that is McCain's convention bounce and how much is the fading of Obama's convention bounce - probably some of both. The trend will settle out over the next few days as McCain's "bounce" peaks, then fades, so we'll probably end up with the virtual dead heat we had before the conventions.

Gotta agree here. People may also get an overdose of Palin, and spit it out like a bad taste. Time will tell.
Yet another poll.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

 

[LowlyPion]

Presidential Debate Schedule

September 26, 2008: Presidential debate with domestic policy focus, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
October 2, 2008: Vice Presidential debate, Washington University, St. Louis, MO
October 7, 2008: Presidential debate in a town hall format, Belmont University, Nashville, TN
October 15, 2008:Presidential debate with foreign policy focus, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

Less than a month to ready Palin to respond on National issues. I think we can be sure that she will avoid the Press like the plague until then and likely all the way to November.

 

[OrbitalPower]

I can't believe McCain is ahead by such a margin with all the problems going on, and with other polls showing Americans agree more with the Obama camp, such as the war and most of the social issues including the death penalty.

You might as well just let him win at this point. Apparently, America is an exmaple of Lenin's analysis: things have to get really bad before we can have this change, something near a Great Depression.

I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.

 

[russ_watters]

Less than a month to ready Palin to respond on National issues. I think we can be sure that she will avoid the Press like the plague until then and likely all the way to November.

Why? It doesn't seem like she was avoiding the press at that rally yesterday.

I think you guys are speculating about nothing.

 

[russ_watters]

I can't believe McCain is ahead by such a margin with all the problems going on, and with other polls showing Americans agree more with the Obama camp, such as the war and most of the social issues including the death penalty.

You might as well just let him win at this point. Apparently, America is an exmaple of Lenin's analysis: things have to get really bad before we can have this change, something near a Great Depression.

People in this forum tend to get caught up in their perceptions and forget that their perceptions are just perceptions. They aren't reality. The reality is that a large fraction of Americans like McCain - about as many as like Obama. The lopsided-ness of this forum is not representative.

I would like to see these "other polls" you are referring to, though. Near as I can tell, there isn't any functional difference between their death penalty policies, except that Obama's is wrapped in his usual blanket of hedges: http://pewforum.org/religion08/compare.php?Issue=Death_Penalty

I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.

Huh?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I can't believe McCain is ahead by such a margin with all the problems going on,

He's not.
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=1862223#post1862223

 

[Gokul43201]

Near as I can tell, there isn't any functional difference between their death penalty policies...

Near as I can tell, McCain wants to expand the death penalty and limit appeals, while Obama wants to limit the death penalty and expand checks and safety measures.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/27/america/NA-POL-US-Elections-Where-They-Stand.php

Most people not wearing a binary filter or living their lives through two-line soundbites can tell the difference.

(Reuters) - Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are often at odds or hold differing opinions on legal issues like the death penalty, immigration enforcement, the Supreme Court, wiretapping and civil rights.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2140737520080721