Will Palin's VP Debate Performance Impact McCain's Campaign?

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  • Thread starter Greg Bernhardt
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In summary, John McCain has chosen Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Palin is a relatively unknown politician who has only been in office for two years. She is a Republican and is likely to be a strong supporter of the oil industry. The VP debate is likely to be interesting, as Biden is likely to bully Palin.
  • #526
mheslep said:
One does not 'give away' a tax cut, unless you presuppose that the money is primarily the governments to begin with.
One doesn't get primary education, police protection, fire protection, highway access, national defense, etc. for free. You do owe the Government.
 
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  • #527
mheslep said:
Yes, an opinion I found believable: accuracy is not the pollsters primary motivation until a week or two before the election when their polls get checked against results and their reputations are at stake; prior to that they're temptation to shape opinions rather than measure them is overwhelming for many.
Opinion polls are just opinions.

I have been in some of these polls before and they do a lot of questioning before you answer the questions. Once I was told that they already had my 'demographic' filled so could not be included. I did find that they will call you for later polls. I also was a "Neilson's TV Ratings" family for several years until I stopped bothering to fill out my viewing diary regulary. I guess you get put on some type of sucker list once they know you will spend 30 minutes giving your opinions.
 
  • #528
Evo said:
Opinion polls are just opinions.

I have been in some of these polls before and they do a lot of questioning before you answer the questions. Once I was told that they already had my 'demographic' filled so could not be included. I did find that they will call you for later polls. I also was a "Neilson's TV Ratings" family for several years until I stopped bothering to fill out my viewing diary regulary. I guess you get put on some type of sucker list once they know you will spend 30 minutes giving your opinions.

I got a call one time from someone wanting to do similar ratings for tv or radio. They sent a little diary to my house. After I sent it back they sent me five bucks taped inside an envelope!
 
  • #529
Cyrus said:
I got a call one time from someone wanting to do similar ratings for tv or radio. They sent a little diary to my house. After I sent it back they sent me five bucks taped inside an envelope!
I'm amazed that it wasn't stolen by someone in the post office. I received a dollar bill once for a poll I was in, how'd you get five?
 
  • #530
russ_watters said:
:confused: Giving away money is the primary selling point of democratic candiates!

Regardless - I don't see your point here. Alaskans always get money. Are you suggesting that if positions were reversed, Obama or Biden would get slammed for it? Absurd.

Lol... I said I know that it would have happened anyway. They get money yearly. Its just convenient (and I don't mean in any conspiratorial way) that she gets to give all the residents of AK extra large checks this year. And I'm not saying Obama or Biden would be slammed for it but that they haven't a similar means of endearing themselves to their constituents.

Its just a side note. I'm sure that McCain and Palin would have taken AK either way.
 
  • #532
It is tough to know how much of that is McCain's convention bounce and how much is the fading of Obama's convention bounce - probably some of both. The trend will settle out over the next few days as McCain's "bounce" peaks, then fades, so we'll probably end up with the virtual dead heat we had before the conventions.
 
  • #533
TheStatutoryApe said:
Lol... I said I know that it would have happened anyway. They get money yearly. Its just convenient (and I don't mean in any conspiratorial way) that she gets to give all the residents of AK extra large checks this year. And I'm not saying Obama or Biden would be slammed for it but that they haven't a similar means of endearing themselves to their constituents.
Since they get money every year, how does continuing that "endear" her to her constituents? I'm sure they know that what they get has virtually nothing to do with who is in office in AK.
 
  • #534
russ_watters said:
It is tough to know how much of that is McCain's convention bounce and how much is the fading of Obama's convention bounce - probably some of both. The trend will settle out over the next few days as McCain's "bounce" peaks, then fades, so we'll probably end up with the virtual dead heat we had before the conventions.

Gotta agree here. People may also get an overdose of Palin, and spit it out like a bad taste. Time will tell.
Yet another poll.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm
 
  • #535
Presidential Debate Schedule

September 26, 2008: Presidential debate with domestic policy focus, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
October 2, 2008: Vice Presidential debate, Washington University, St. Louis, MO
October 7, 2008: Presidential debate in a town hall format, Belmont University, Nashville, TN
October 15, 2008:Presidential debate with foreign policy focus, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

Less than a month to ready Palin to respond on National issues. I think we can be sure that she will avoid the Press like the plague until then and likely all the way to November.
 
  • #536
I can't believe McCain is ahead by such a margin with all the problems going on, and with other polls showing Americans agree more with the Obama camp, such as the war and most of the social issues including the death penalty.

You might as well just let him win at this point. Apparently, America is an exmaple of Lenin's analysis: things have to get really bad before we can have this change, something near a Great Depression.

I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.
 
  • #537
LowlyPion said:
Less than a month to ready Palin to respond on National issues. I think we can be sure that she will avoid the Press like the plague until then and likely all the way to November.
Why? It doesn't seem like she was avoiding the press at that rally yesterday.

I think you guys are speculating about nothing.
 
  • #538
OrbitalPower said:
I can't believe McCain is ahead by such a margin with all the problems going on, and with other polls showing Americans agree more with the Obama camp, such as the war and most of the social issues including the death penalty.

You might as well just let him win at this point. Apparently, America is an exmaple of Lenin's analysis: things have to get really bad before we can have this change, something near a Great Depression.
People in this forum tend to get caught up in their perceptions and forget that their perceptions are just perceptions. They aren't reality. The reality is that a large fraction of Americans like McCain - about as many as like Obama. The lopsided-ness of this forum is not representative.

I would like to see these "other polls" you are referring to, though. Near as I can tell, there isn't any functional difference between their death penalty policies, except that Obama's is wrapped in his usual blanket of hedges: http://pewforum.org/religion08/compare.php?Issue=Death_Penalty
I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.
Huh?
 
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  • #540
russ_watters said:
Near as I can tell, there isn't any functional difference between their death penalty policies...
Near as I can tell, McCain wants to expand the death penalty and limit appeals, while Obama wants to limit the death penalty and expand checks and safety measures.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/27/america/NA-POL-US-Elections-Where-They-Stand.php

Most people not wearing a binary filter or living their lives through two-line soundbites can tell the difference.
(Reuters) - Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are often at odds or hold differing opinions on legal issues like the death penalty, immigration enforcement, the Supreme Court, wiretapping and civil rights.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2140737520080721
 
  • #542
OrbitalPower said:
I'm not going to vote for someone who's going to lose the popular vote and have a chance to still be elected president; I don't think that's right.
Then you shouldn't vote for Obama.
 
  • #543
Gokul43201 said:
Oops!

It is certainly out of line with the rest of the polls over the last few days.

It's the Palin honeymoon. I find it quite entertaining to see such enthusiasm about someone who almost no one knows anything about - including McCain!

There was actually some concern about McCain and Palin appearing together because she upstages McCain every time. The McCain people decided to keep them together for now, but one would almost think it's a Palin-McCain ticket. ...in fact, I wonder if this might not start to intrude on McCain's ego.
 
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  • #544
russ_watters said:
The lopsided-ness of this forum is not representative.

Though perhaps suggestive given that PF is probably the smartest group of people on any forum on the internet.
 
  • #545
Ivan Seeking said:
There was actually some concern about McCain and Palin appearing together because she upstages McCain every time. The McCain people decided to keep them together for now, but one would almost think it's a Palin-McCain ticket. ...in fact, I wonder if this might not start to intrude on McCain's ego.


It's likely to intrude on Obama's ego long before it will McCain's!
 
  • #546
chemisttree said:
It's likely to intrude on Obama's ego long before it will McCain's!

What makes you think Obama would be concerned about how Palin might upstage McCain?

Making McCain look to be the third most popular candidate in the field can't help McCain.
 
  • #547
Read the latest polls and get back to me...
 
  • #548
chemisttree said:
Read the latest polls and get back to me...

I'm missing the connection with the latest polls and your supposition that Obama's ego would have a problem with Palin's popularity before McCain would?
 
  • #549
Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Palin’s favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year. As of Friday morning, Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 57% of voters. Biden is viewed favorably by 48%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain

Or I could put it into Father Pfleger terms for you...

'...this is mine. I'm Michelle's husband and a friend of Ayers. I'm black, and this is mine. I just got to get up and step into the plate.' Then out of nowhere, 'I'm Sarah Palin!' Imitating Barak's response, screaming at the top of his lungs again, he continues, 'Ah, damn! Where did you come from? I'm black! I'm entitled! There's a woman stealing my show!'
 
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  • #550
chemisttree said:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain

Or I could put it into Father Pfleger terms for you...

'...this is mine. I'm Michelle's husband and a friend of Ayers. I'm black, and this is mine. I just got to get up and step into the plate.' Then out of nowhere, 'I'm Sarah Palin!' Imitating Barak's response, screaming at the top of his lungs again, he continues, 'Ah, damn! Where did you come from? I'm black! I'm entitled! There's a woman stealing my show!'

Sorry, I guess I'm not tuned into your fantasy stereotyping characterizations of the candidates then. It seems a thin substitute for a rationale.

But ultimately I suppose that same thing touches on the great Republican strategy/hope that they can cling to power through image without substance. Masquerade meanness as compassion, divisiveness as consensus, while pretending all the time that continuation is change.
 
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  • #551
It's no fantasy that Palin enjoys a better favorable rating than either Obama or McCain!
Image without substance? Have you heard of Ronald Reagan?
 
  • #552
Here is a picture of Sarah Palin - the woman who claims to have said "no thanks" to the bridge to nowhere. She was all for it, and claimed that it should be built as soon as possible while the Alaska Congressional delegation had the strength to make the earmarks stick. Once the bridge became a political liability, she "got the faith", but Alaska never returned the money.
http://www.washingtonindependent.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/picture-8.png

Gosh! What a pork-busting maverick she is.
 
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  • #553
One point that can be drawn from this discussion is that Gov. Palin as an executive does indeed have a record of decisions for which there's no escaping responsibility. She made the call and they had consequences. It is much tougher to review Sen. Obama's record in that regard.
 
  • #554
She also hired a Washington lobbyist to secure $27M in earmarks for her town of 5000-6000 while mayor of Wasilla. No pork for Sarah!
 
  • #555
Maybe since Sarah Palin, given her support for the bridge to nowhere and the roughly $4K per capita for Wasilla from the Federal Government, could as well run for a beauty contest as Miss Pork Barrel? This selection by McCain would then be McCain keeping his promise to make such people dipping their scoops into the public troughs famous?
 
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  • #556
chemisttree said:
It's no fantasy that Palin enjoys a better favorable rating than either Obama or McCain!
Image without substance? Have you heard of Ronald Reagan?

There's miles to go before we sleep on the polling data.

But as to your point that Obama's ego would be suffering from Palin's current popularity, I still don't see your justification, or for that matter the unfortunate stereotyping in your caricaturization of him.
 
  • #557
LowlyPion said:
There's miles to go before we sleep on the polling data.

But as to your point that Obama's ego would be suffering from Palin's current popularity, I still don't see your justification, or for that matter the unfortunate stereotyping in your caricaturization of him.

He's spoofing Pfleger's sermon about Hillary. Of course I didn't like Pfleger's sermon either.
 
  • #559
TheStatutoryApe said:
He's spoofing Pfleger's sermon about Hillary. Of course I didn't like Pfleger's sermon either.

Regardless that sermon had nothing to do with what I see as Obama's sense of ego or even entitlement, and I think that kind of spoofing loses greatly in translation, because racial caricaturizations culturally just cannot be treated symmetrically.
 
  • #560
From the same W Post piece:
...Gov. Palin has spent far less on her personal travel than her predecessor: $93,000 on airfare in 2007, compared with $463,000 spent the year before by her predecessor, Frank Murkowski. He traveled often in an executive jet that Palin called an extravagance during her campaign. She sold it after she was sworn into office. ...
and
...state attorney general's office produced an opinion saying laws then in effect required reimbursement for spousal travel...

BTW: Sen. Biden's http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/08/26/ST2008082603569.html" is $200/day, or ~$40k/yr train travel alone, and I don't begrudge him the ride.
 
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