Will past personal issues affect Obama's 2012 campaign?

[Ryumast3r]

I wouldn't be so sure... According to Gallup's last poll, Obama stood at a 3% advantage against any generic Republican candidate... the highest-ranking of which (Huckabee, who had a 25-point positive index score, compared to the next highest which is Palin at 16), has left the race.

The main contenders thus far in the race are Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich.

Mitt Romney is having issues with the base due to his passage of RomneyCare in MA, which is essentially the same thing as ObamaCare, with the exception that it's only a state-wide program as opposed to a national one, but a lot of people have a hard time seeing much of a difference and are thus not giving him much support.

Sarah Palin... well... I think that one speaks for itself. She's well-known, definitely, but she's going to have a hard time getting the Independent vote and any of the swing-democrats. I only have to point to all the various Youtube videos and Comedy Central appearances of fake Palin's to get my point across that Palin, while she is a top-contestant, will still have a hard time winning.

Newt Gingrich lost a lot of support after he was Speaker of the House and gave all these glorious speeches on congressmen needing to be moral examples (he was talking about a guy who recently came out with a sex-scandal), how he would never do that, etc, etc, then not too long afterwards he came out and had a sex-scandal of his own.

Among other problems with Newt, he will have a hard time getting the wide-spread support that's required to win a general election.

Those three all have a good shot, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that it's Obama's to lose, not at all. I'm just saying it's not a clear-cut victory for the Reps. yet.

The rest of the contenders on the G.O.P. side are simply not recognized or supported enough yet to be considered serious contenders. The only one generating enough excitement to be considered is Herman Cain, but he's only recognized by about 29% of the Republican Base as of the last Gallup poll.Since I know a lot of people don't like gallup, I'll cite a few others that give similar results:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm (includes about 10 different polling companies)

and RCP which has everything from gallup to rasmussen

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

The only one Obama loses to here is "general republican candidate" but not to Bachmann, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Hunstman, Romney, or even Huckabee, winning anywhere from 3 points to 22.

 

[WhoWee]

The only one Obama loses to here is "general republican candidate" but not to Bachmann, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Hunstman, Romney, or even Huckabee, winning anywhere from 3 points to 22.

The President basically threw away the Jewish vote today (IMO) - words and actions matter. Promising $1Billion (that must be borrowed) to help create jobs in Egypt isn't going to gain him many votes either - is it?

 

[Ryumast3r]

The President basically threw away the Jewish vote today (IMO) - words and actions matter. Promising $1Billion (that must be borrowed) to help create jobs in Egypt isn't going to gain him many votes either - is it?

Like I said: It's not a sure thing for Obama, but it most certainly isn't a sure thing for the G.O.P. either.

Words and actions matter, and the polls reflect what people are saying, and are probably going to do, and they don't exactly reflect your "the republicans are definitely going to win unless they really screw up" idea.

 

[turbo]

Right now, the GOP has a "poison pill" that will sink them unless they get their act together. The Tea Party radicals will make it tough for any GOP candidate to get through the primaries unless they are sufficiently right-wing. That means that the eventual candidate will be unelectable in the general election. Nobody wants a Palin, Bachman, etc in the WH. Romney and Pawlentey don't stand a chance with the Tea Party wing, IMO.

 

[WhoWee]

Right now, the GOP has a "poison pill" that will sink them unless they get their act together. The Tea Party radicals will make it tough for any GOP candidate to get through the primaries unless they are sufficiently right-wing. That means that the eventual candidate will be unelectable in the general election. Nobody wants a Palin, Bachman, etc in the WH. Romney and Pawlentey don't stand a chance with the Tea Party wing, IMO.

Why do you label the Tea Party members "radical"? The Tea Party wants to control spending, reduce taxes, and hold politicians accountable - why is that "radical"?

 

[turbo]

Why do you label the Tea Party members "radical"? The Tea Party wants to control spending, reduce taxes, and hold politicians accountable - why is that "radical"?

You should see what they are doing in Maine. Trying to eliminate the returnable bottle bill that keeps our highways cleaner. Trying to eliminate the ban on billboards along our highways. Attempting to roll back environmental rules and land-use regulations that help reduce over-development in wild lands... There is a lot more, including the governor's sending in a crew over a weekend to remove what he said was a labor-friendly mural from the department of labor, and ordering meeting rooms to be renamed to remove the names of people who he said are anti-business, including the first female cabinet member, Frances Perkins.

Like I said, there is a LOT more. I wish I could get you a subscription to a central Maine newspaper, but this will do. http://www.onlinesentinel.com/ Search on LePage and see what's happening here.

 

[russ_watters]

Right now, the GOP has a "poison pill" that will sink them unless they get their act together. The Tea Party radicals will make it tough for any GOP candidate to get through the primaries unless they are sufficiently right-wing. That means that the eventual candidate will be unelectable in the general election.

While that's true, it isn't unique: it exists for every candidate in every primary, ever. And a slightly different version of that exists for all political candidates everywhere: you need to be different things to different people in order to get the broadest appeal and most votes.

 

[WhoWee]

Back on Post 31 I said this:

That was my original thought as well. But (what if) Trump nibbles on this issue, Palin pounds him on his the Left Wing agenda, and Newt focuses on his inexperience?

To this mix, consider the (IMO) VP tier of Santorum, Barber, Herman Cain, Jindahl, Steele, (maybe) Allen West, and a slew of others including Bachman, Paul, and Rubio focusing on their pet peeves/areas of strengths. IMO - as long as they appear less zany than Biden, they will not themselves.

This leaves front runners Romney, Huckabee, and (maybe) Daniels a little breathing room to stay on point and avoid destroying each other in the early debates.

Also IMO - at the end of the day, the President has to run against 2008 Candidate (and Senator) Obama. In 2008, he could basically say anything he wanted. In the 2012 cycle - "he's got some 'splainin to do" (IMO).

-------------
On Post 33, turbo-1 said this:

"He has no credible opponent to run against this time. Pawlenty? Palin? Trump? Romney? Bachman? None of them has any chance. Does the GOP have anybody willing and able to run? I don't see a contender."

----------------------
To my list of potential "front-runners", Huckabee is out and Romney and Daniels have plenty of time to convince voters. To expand, Daniels will probably have the Bush machine behind him.

 

[Al68]

Why do you label the Tea Party members "radical"? The Tea Party wants to control spending, reduce taxes, and hold politicians accountable - why is that "radical"?

You should see what they are doing in Maine. Trying to eliminate the returnable bottle bill that keeps our highways cleaner. Trying to eliminate the ban on billboards along our highways. Attempting to roll back environmental rules and land-use regulations that help reduce over-development in wild lands...

Yes, individual liberty and private property rights are radical ideas from a historical perspective. At least they were pre-Enlightenment. Seems like most people would be capable of comprehending it by now, though.

 

[Vanadium 50]

You should see what they are doing in Maine. Trying to eliminate the returnable bottle bill that keeps our highways cleaner.

Joining the 39 other states without bottle bills.

Trying to eliminate the ban on billboards along our highways.

Joining the 46 other states without billboard bans.

These may be bad ideas, but they are not radical. They are mainstream.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The President basically threw away the Jewish vote today (IMO)

I was going to argue that it doesn't matter - a few percent fewer votes in New York, New Jersey and California won't change the electoral count. But there are two states where the margin was smaller than the Jewish population: Florida and North Carolina.

By the way, The President's magic number is 4.77%. If he can keep 4.77% of his vote from voting for his opponent, he's in.

 

[CAC1001]

Right now, the GOP has a "poison pill" that will sink them unless they get their act together. The Tea Party radicals will make it tough for any GOP candidate to get through the primaries unless they are sufficiently right-wing. That means that the eventual candidate will be unelectable in the general election. Nobody wants a Palin, Bachman, etc in the WH. Romney and Pawlentey don't stand a chance with the Tea Party wing, IMO.

It really comes down to how the candidate portrays themself. Barack Obama got the nomination by running about as far left as one could get during the Democratic Primary back in 2008. Then he eased up a bit and portrayed himself as a center-left type of guy for the General.

 

[CAC1001]

I was going to argue that it doesn't matter - a few percent fewer votes in New York, New Jersey and California won't change the electoral count. But there are two states where the margin was smaller than the Jewish population: Florida and North Carolina.

By the way, The President's magic number is 4.77%. If he can keep 4.77% of his vote from voting for his opponent, he's in.

What makes it 4.77%?

 

[turbo]

I was going to argue that it doesn't matter - a few percent fewer votes in New York, New Jersey and California won't change the electoral count. But there are two states where the margin was smaller than the Jewish population: Florida and North Carolina.

By the way, The President's magic number is 4.77%. If he can keep 4.77% of his vote from voting for his opponent, he's in.

I think you're right, and it will be harder for the GOP to swing the independent votes if they put up a Tea Party endorsed candidate. There are a lot of us out here, and we generally vote. The last time I actually registered with either party was in 1988, when I wanted to influence the Democratic caucuses and try to get Gephardt on the ticket instead of Jackson or Dukakis. Didn't work, as we all know. Bush was a shoo-in on the GOP side, but I wanted a pro-labor congressman on the other side.

 

[Char. Limit]

I was all set to vote for Newt Gingrich after what he said on Meet the Press. Then he takes it all back... Newt, you're dead to me.

 

[CAC1001]

I was all set to vote for Newt Gingrich after what he said on Meet the Press. Then he takes it all back... Newt, you're dead to me.

Why would you want to vote for him with what he had said?

 

[Char. Limit]

Why would you want to vote for him with what he had said?

He was the first candidate in a long time that even attempted to appear centrist. But not anymore. Now he's just another far out wacko.

 

[Vanadium 50]

What makes it 4.77%?

That's the shift that would be required for President Obama to win the Electoral College. This happens to be higher than the 3.6% suggested by the election of 2008. This assumes a shift that is uniform by state, obviously.

 

[skippy1729]

Obama's strategy?

HOPE.

Hope the enconomy improves. Hope the Republicans crash and burn. Somebody should read the Republican candidates their Miranda rights. "Anything you say can and will be used against you."

Romney - Health Care
Gingrich - Medicare
Trump - F bomb
Santorum - Torture
Bachman - American History
Ron Paul - Civil Rights

The only one who looks presidential and hasn't said anything stupid yet is Herman Cain.
Non-candidates Jindal, Christy and Ryan are looking awfully good.

Skippy

 

[WhoWee]

Obama's strategy?

HOPE.

Hope the enconomy improves. Hope the Republicans crash and burn. Somebody should read the Republican candidates their Miranda rights. "Anything you say can and will be used against you."

Romney - Health Care
Gingrich - Medicare
Trump - F bomb
Santorum - Torture
Bachman - American History
Ron Paul - Civil Rights

The only one who looks presidential and hasn't said anything stupid yet is Herman Cain.
Non-candidates Jindal, Christy and Ryan are looking awfully good.

Skippy

You forgot Mitch Daniels

 

[tedbradly]

Obama's strategy? Please many minorities with huge promises.

e.g.
saying he will set up legal and documented paths for Mexicans to enter and work in the US. (secures vote for anyone who associates himself with Mexico)

Saying Israel must return the the 1967 borders to create peace (securing Muslim votes).

etc.

 

[Char. Limit]

Obama's strategy? Please many minorities with huge promises.

e.g.
saying he will set up legal and documented paths for Mexicans to enter and work in the US. (secures vote for anyone who associates himself with Mexico)

Saying Israel must return the the 1967 borders to create peace (securing Muslim votes).

etc.

The Jewish vote is 2.2% of the US Population. The Muslim vote is 0.8% of the US population. With these numbers, saying that Israel must return to the 1967 borders is less of a vote-securing item and more of a footbullet.

 

[tedbradly]

The Jewish vote is 2.2% of the US Population. The Muslim vote is 0.8% of the US population. With these numbers, saying that Israel must return to the 1967 borders is less of a vote-securing item and more of a footbullet.

Jewish people are usually Republican, because they support military to defend Israel. He didn't lose the Jewish vote, he never had it. So he came out on top in the end.

 

[Char. Limit]

Jewish people are usually Republican, because they support military to defend Israel. He didn't lose the Jewish vote, he never had it. So he came out on top in the end.

Source?

EDIT: I find this 2007 article from ABC news that seems to contradict your statement: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=2872816&page=1

 

[skippy1729]

You forgot Mitch Daniels

He is experienced, qualified and has good ideas. I strive to not be superficial but the American electorate is. He doesn't come off as being presidential. In my opinion, the Republicans need someone with a commanding presence.

Skippy

PS "Obama doesn't say anything but he says it better than anyone else." Does anyone remember who first said this?

 

[skippy1729]

Jewish people are usually Republican, because they support military to defend Israel. He didn't lose the Jewish vote, he never had it. So he came out on top in the end.

Except for Joe Lieberman, he got most of their votes last time. My daughter-in-law lived on a kibbutz for three years and she STILL thinks he is the anointed one.

"Jews earn like Episcopalians but vote like Puerto Ricans" Milton Himmelfarb

 

[WhoWee]

He is experienced, qualified and has good ideas. I strive to not be superficial but the American electorate is. He doesn't come off as being presidential. In my opinion, the Republicans need someone with a commanding presence.

Skippy

PS "Obama doesn't say anything but he says it better than anyone else." Does anyone remember who first said this?

Normally, I would agree the old saying "sell the sizzle - not the steak" - but not this time. I think the country realizes we need solid leadership, grounded in experience to solve our problems. I've always favored (successful) Governors - running a state is good training.

 

[WhoWee]

This might seem a little off-topic, but does anyone have any thoughts about John Kerry's trip to the ME - can the President trust him and more importantly, is he undermining the real Secretary of State?

 

[skippy1729]

This might seem a little off-topic, but does anyone have any thoughts about John Kerry's trip to the ME - can the President trust him and more importantly, is he undermining the real Secretary of State?

Whatever he does could he possibly make the situation worse than it is now?

 

[WhoWee]

Whatever he does could he possibly make the situation worse than it is now?

I don't have a great deal of confidence in John Kerry - it's not clear he's acting under the President's direction. I get nervous EVERY TIME a member of Congress heads off-shore.