Will Solar Power Outshine Oil in the Near Future?

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The discussion centers on the potential for solar power to surpass oil as a primary energy source. Participants agree that solar is renewable while oil is not, but the timeline for this transition remains uncertain. Skepticism is expressed regarding new technologies, such as spray-on solar coatings for glass, with questions about their efficiency and practicality in real-world applications like skyscrapers.Key points include the current limitations of solar technology, including the efficiency of solar panels, which produce about 8-10 watts per square foot under optimal conditions. The average U.S. home requires significant solar panel coverage—approximately 670 square feet—to meet daily energy needs. Storage solutions, particularly batteries, are highlighted as crucial for managing energy supply, especially during periods without sunlight. The discussion notes the high costs and logistical challenges associated with battery storage, including the need for extensive infrastructure to support solar energy generation and storage.
  • #451
And the result is shown below (source: Fraunhofer agregator). If Germany is any guide, about 7 or 8% solar share of generation, without storage, is the economic limit, at least at that latitude. Perhaps lower latitude, clear sky areas can go a little further.
f0q23o.png


Edit: apparently not all government support for solar is gone. The surcharge remains, and has increased. Surely those funds find their way in part to solar owners.
2016, Reuters:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-powergrid-fee-idUKKCN12B0VI
The surcharge under the renewable energy act (EEG) will be 6.88 euro cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2017, up from 6.35 cents this year, the sources said ahead of an official statement from the country's network operators (TSOs) due on Friday
.
 
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  • #452
OmCheeto said:
Anyways, after checking out Prof MacKay on the interwebs, I prayed that I had never said a bad word about him.
And my prayers were answered; "Kind of refreshing to hear from a professor of physics rather than Geraldo."

I probably should have checked more closely.

My comments from Jun 7, 2009, here at PF; "I think I read half his book online yesterday. I found his personal opinions and actions very much in line with both mine and some people at the forum:"

His book is very, ummm... dense with information.

I'm again half-way through it.

And I obviously didn't read half his book in a day. as It took me an hour to get through just the last 10 pages I'd "skimmed" a few days ago.
(currently on page 222)

ps. I was going to wait to comment until I finished the book, but, like last time... Wow. This guy was a "FREAK" of a genius, and I will never be able to absorb all of this.
 
  • #453
NYT has a column out reviewing the history of Jacobson et al 100%RE and then summarizes, per Clack et al, how Jacobson is not just flawed but absurd.
 
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  • #454
nikkkom said:
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/conte...cent-facts-about-photovoltaics-in-germany.pdf

Last update: January 9, 2017

The section "4.2 Feed-in Tariff" is especially interesting. Basically, according to info there in Germany PV feed-in tariffs reached the "normal" price of the electricity. This means new installations will have no subsidy (although existing ones will continue to operate under older agreements with subsidy). From now on, PV in Germany stands on its own.
They get 8-12 cent/kWh. That is two to three times the electricty market price, and it is guaranteed no matter when they produce it.
No subsidies? It's like giving a car manufacturer €20,000 to €30,000 bonus for every €10,000 car they produce - and they don't even have to find customers willing to buy the car for €10,000, they get it simply for producing the car, and giving it away for free if necessary.
And despite this massive subsidization, the new installations still go down massively.
mheslep said:
The surcharge remains, and has increased.
And exceeds the electicity market price. We pay more for solar power (6% of the electricity) than we pay for everything else (94%) combined.
 
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  • #455
mfb said:
...We pay more for solar power (6% of the electricity) than we pay for everything else (94%) combined.
From many US media outlets and some German, I sometimes have the impression that those in Germany critical of Energiewende or in support of nuclear power are shunned as if they had Ebola. Unfortunate if true.
 
  • #456
mfb said:
...
And exceeds the electicity market price. We pay more for solar power (6% of the electricity) than we pay for everything else (94%) combined.

That sounds horrible! But how much does that add up to?

From my naive calculations, it comes out to ¼% of the average German's income.
Losing ¼% of my income means I'd have to not drink my daily dose of beer, for 1 day out of the month.
Ehr mehr gerd. Lifestyle change! Solar sucks!
 
  • #457
OmCheeto said:
That sounds horrible! But how much does that add up to?

From my naive calculations, it comes out to ¼% of the average German's income.
Losing ¼% of my income means I'd have to not drink my daily dose of beer, for 1 day out of the month.
Ehr mehr gerd. Lifestyle change! Solar sucks!
I'm guessing you didn't include commercial energy use in there, but in either case your argument argument seems to be that since it is cheap, it doesn't matter if the value matches the cost. But:
1. It will become a lot less cheap if they are to achieve their emissions goals.
2. If Germans are that unconcerned about value, they should just send the money to me! I promise I won't generate any coal power with it!
3. You really should see a doctor about that drinking problem.
 
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  • #458
  • #459
russ_watters said:
I'm guessing you didn't include commercial energy use in there...
Nope! As I've said many times before, I'm not god, and cannot solve the planets problems, all at once.
Too many variables in this problem. Way too many.
 
  • #461
mheslep said:
From many US media outlets and some German, I sometimes have the impression that those in Germany critical of Energiewende or in support of nuclear power are shunned as if they had Ebola. Unfortunate if true.
All large parties are against it. A large majority of the population is against it as well. I don't see how either of that would change.
OmCheeto said:
From my naive calculations, it comes out to ¼% of the average German's income.
Losing ¼% of my income means I'd have to not drink my daily dose of beer, for 1 day out of the month.
Ehr mehr gerd. Lifestyle change! Solar sucks!
From 2013:
Renewables produced electricity worth €2 billion at the spot market. They got €19.4 billion subsidies from the "EEG-Umlage".
Yes, that is a factor 10.
As average, €19.4 billion per year is €20/month per person.

In 2017, the EEG-Umlage is 6.88 cent/kWh. At ~600 TWh demand that is €41 billion, or €40/month and person.
Not all that money goes to solar, although it is the largest part. Wind, hydro and biomass get some money as well.

Photovoltaics gets subsidies for 20 years - at a price per kWh that depends on the installation date only. It will take another ~10 years until a notable amount of installed capacity stops getting subsidies. The EEG-Umlage will continue to increase more for quite some time. Even if we would stop subsidies for new installations tomorrow (we don't), the total subsidies would end up at some large three-digit billion Euro value.
 
  • #462
mfb said:
...From 2013:
Renewables produced electricity worth €2 billion at the spot market. They got €19.4 billion subsidies from the "EEG-Umlage".
Yes, that is a factor 10.
As average, €19.4 billion per year is €20/month per person.

...
Sweet! I was only off by a factor of 2.
I got my numbers from some tree-hugger website: Clean Energy Wire, Berlin, and did some back of napkin maths:

22% renewable surcharge x €1050/(DE household year) x 1 yr/month = €19/(DE household month)
and with 2.1 DEers per household, it added up to €9/(DE mensch month)

I assumed my numbers were just crazy, as I couldn't imagine people complaining about 30(or 60) pfennig per day, when the future of ones nation was in question.

------
conversions:
DE = Germany
mensch = people
pfennig = penny
edit: € 0.88 = $ 1.00

€1 = $0.88
 
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  • #463
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  • #464
OCR said:
:oldlaugh:
I will never stop screwing that up.

from my spreadsheet: exchange rate 0.88 $/euro

ps. Fixed! Thanks. :thumbup:
 
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  • #466
Entrepreneur Elon Musk gave a lengthy talk to the US governors conference recently, covering several topics including solar and batteries. Musk tossed out the often used all-solar notion of a small corner of some sunny state covered with PV that would be sufficient to carry the US electric load (100 miles x 100 miles). The 'PV square' has been discussed for years, including on PF, going nowhere of course because of its inevitable intermittent nature.

This time however, Musk added that a square mile of batteries could be added to make the notional national PV array available "24/7". Some details on a battery array that can carry the US for 24 hours, assuming and average lUS load of 0.5 TW (12 TW-hrs):

-Cost: at ~$300/kWh and 100% depth of discharge, $3.6 trillion. The small Tesla battery installation planned for S. Australia is likely ~$500/kWh. All replaced every ~decade.
-Mass: 92 million tons (7.7 kg/kWh Tesla Powerpack). By comparison, US annual steel production is ~80 million tons/yr. Cobalt required (0.22kg/kWh), 2 million tons, with global cobalt production ~0.1 million ton/yr.
-Time to produce: 342 Gigafactory-years (35 GWh/yr).
-Number of Gigafactories to maintain the national battery w/ 10yr life: 34

And then there are seasonal lulls.

See 16m50s:
 
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  • #467
mheslep said:
Cobalt required (0.22kg/kWh), 2 million tons, with global cobalt production ~0.1 million ton/yr.
And you have to replace it every ten years, so we need twice the world production constantly just to keep the US electricity grid running on solar. At the current demand - the demand will go up with more electric cars.

Yeah, I see some problems with that.

$360 billion per year means 8 cent/kWh just for the storage - at the current market prices of all the raw materials.
 
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  • #468
an interesting fact i just learned as of late. JP Morgan pulled all his funding from Tesla, and Tesla was pissed, and many at the time simply thought that Edison's DC was the better product. in reality, Tesla was right,... and so was JP Morgan, why invest in an end product that was free?

my humble opinion, hydrogen will proliferate onto the scene at the wrong time for solar and batteries, batts of which will basically bring bad stuff to the surface, and solar that will be max'd out due to footprint issues.

my bet is on hydrogen as being the staple source of energy for at least 10000x longer than anything Musk is making in deserts, and it will be here sooner than you think. how would you track such? just keep an on Musk and watch his move to hydrogen (investments, technology, etc).

and to boot, we don't really need solar to create the energy needed for electric cars, the energy is already there, you simply displaced a source and forced in a new converter. all the oil not used in cars is used to run the electric plants that make the juice for the batts. but i still wonder, in the efficiency balance of it all, does replacing carnot heat engine with electric save us anything? oil to electric into poor batts (even though we think lithium batts are great, surely better than alkaline, but how good are lithium batts in the math), is that any more efficient than a hi-tech diesel engine?

i am not a fan of moving stuff around and calling it great while collecting $$ along the way.
 
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  • #469
There is no hydrogen around. Hydrogen can be used as energy storage (with an efficiency significantly worse than batteries), but not as energy source.

Countries like the US have more than enough unused area for solar power.
Physics_Kid said:
all the oil not used in cars is used to run the electric plants that make the juice for the batts
Then we still get its pollution and the CO2. The efficiency of stationary power plants is a bit better, but after taking transportation and storage losses into account the difference is not that large.

=> move away from fossil fuel power plants.
 
  • #470
The efficiency of stationary power plants is a _lot_ better that of car engines. It is well above 50%.
 
  • #471
It is a bit above 50% for new power plants. Take the average, and include 10% transmission loss, and you are significantly below 50%. New ICE cars (the alternative to new electric cars!) have ~35% efficiency, some diesel engines even reach 45%.[1] It gets worse if you take larger transmission losses into account, but overall the difference is not very large.

In addition, burning hydrocarbons produces a part of the energy from the formation of water, while burning coal only has the production of CO2 as energy source. At the same efficiency coal emits more CO2 (and much more other nasty stuff) per kWh. Here is a comparison
 
  • #472
where does anyone propose they will be getting sun energy when its night time? big fields of toxic lithium batts? i can see it now, "new flash, Nevada desert of lithium batts suddenly daisy chain in sparks and fire like a bandoleer of firecrackers".
a solar roof on every home with bigger local farms for industry, and backed by a few nuke plants for night time, sounds more plausible

on the other hand, hydrogen could care less about where the sun is, and from what i can see, 1,386 million cubic kilometers (km3) of water is there ready to use for hydrogen. but like usual, we need energy to get that H, so maybe some solar farms for day time, a few nukes for night time production, and, you don't need a large footprint like solar does.

and since oils makes itself in the earth, at what point does that black gold becomes over abundant again and you get 55gal drums for $2. its a vicious cycle, and from what i can see, Musk and the like talk fancy words so they can shift $$ in their direction.

i myself am a hydrogen fan.
 
  • #473
Physics_Kid said:
and since oils makes itself in the earth, at what point does that black gold becomes over abundant again and you get 55gal drums for $2.
(Tongue in cheek here...)

This is an interesting statement. Now, I'm not a geologist, or any kind of scientist, so perhaps you could explain to me just how many barrels of oil are being produced per day in the earth...or, on whatever scale of time you have available figures? Would that be Years?, Decades? Centuries? Millennia? Isn't our oil available to us as the result of a mass extinction event, millions of years ago? How many have we had since then, to supply the endless oil-production scenario you are suggesting?

Your statement makes me, a non-scientist, ask a lot of questions, but most specifically, how did I live over 5 decades, and never hear of such a wonderful thing before?

:doh:
 
  • #474
hi Blank_Stare
the question still remains, is there still organic matter being converted? or is it your belief that at some point in time all the organic material on the surface became buried and compressed and all of it is now one layer in the Earth and all of that material has been converted into the crude oil? or, is it possible that some organic material is still being squished and turning into oil?

mfb said:
There is no hydrogen around. Hydrogen can be used as energy storage (with an efficiency significantly worse than batteries), but not as energy source.
what are these hydrogen fuel cells i hear of?

cant we kick start H harvesting with nuke plant, and then via feedback process you use some H to get some H and the differential is supplied by the nuke plant (to get the additional H that the 1st subset of H used to get H).

like this, nuke at night, solar during the day. no batts needed :wink:, but can this scale at 53.6 Ampere-Hours per 2241 litres (2g of H), and 1kg of H = ~1gal of gasoline = ~30mi.

quik math
to go 300mi you need 10gal gas or ~10kg of H, or roughly 0.26x10^6 amp-hours.
h-fuel.jpg
 
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  • #475
Physics_Kid said:
cant we kick start H harvesting with nuke plant, and then via feedback process you use some H to get some H and the differential is supplied by the nuke plant (to get the additional H that the 1st subset of H used to get H).

like this, nuke at night, solar during the day. no batts needed :wink:, but can this scale at 53.6 Ampere-Hours per 2241 litres (2g of H)
View attachment 207932
"Feedback process" is just a term for fantasizing about perpetual motion. Feeding the hydrogen back into the hydrogen production process provides a net loss, not a net gain.

Otherwise, the idea of hydrogen as energy storage is ok, but I don't think it will become widespread for a good 50 years or so. It is too inefficient and doesn't solve the most important problems (getting rid of coal and oil).
 
  • #476
russ_watters said:
"Feedback process" is just a term for fantasizing about perpetual motion. Feeding the hydrogen back into the hydrogen production process provides a net loss, not a net gain.

Otherwise, the idea of hydrogen as energy storage is ok, but I don't think it will become widespread for a good 50 years or so. It is too inefficient and doesn't solve the most important problems (getting rid of coal and oil).

if the process is more efficient at running on H than it is from nuke or solar (well, solar is free), you can get most efficiency by using some feedback of H. you did notice i did mention the solar & nuke would need to supply the diff, yes? i did not say H feedback alone runs the process after start-up. so the problem is less about the source and more about the efficiency of it all. even solar has problems, namely footprint, so in solar terms and for just about everything these days, power density is the key term. lithium batts have a larger power density than lead acid and lithium batts cycle better, but at what cost? the cost of improper disposal, the costs to harvest lithium, which is limited btw. can't we use solar to pump a ton of sea water into the great lakes during the day, and then at night catch the water in hrydro plants as it travels back to the sea, no harsh pollution in this process, a pseudo capacitor. just because Musk built a big chemical plant doesn't mean that's the solution, because its not. "Buy lithium batts" is like "Buy DC power" that Edison once sold. you can think of lithium batts like facebook :frown:
 
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  • #477
Physics_Kid said:
hi Blank_Stare
the question still remains, is there still organic matter being converted? or is it your belief that at some point in time all the organic material on the surface became buried and compressed and all of it is now one layer in the Earth and all of that material has been converted into the crude oil? or, is it possible that some organic material is still being squished and turning into oil?

I don't believe I said that the process was not possible, or non-existent. I asked, plainly, for a rate of conversion. However, at SOME point, each of those existing deposits is almost certain to be depleted. Are new deposits being created? Surely your idea is based on some evidence, or even some scientific journal or other writings? I'd just like to ponder how many millions of years it will take, at the current conversion rate, to sustain the needs of our current 7 billion humans, before I even start to consider how many of us will inhabit the planet once petroleum is again a practical energy resource.. Maybe we should start burying our garbage in such a way that it is likely to make petroleum, and leave maps for the people that will live millions of years from now? (Just Kidding...)

If the annual production rate is a thimble, then the process is negligible, at any scale that would matter to humans, in any foreseeable future. Even if that rate were 100 tanker cars per year, I suspect that it would still be so small, compared to the need, that it would not be worth pursuing. Of course, if you waited long enough, you might "bank" enough that there would be enough to do something with, but after a relatively short period of time, you would find yourself right back where we are today - that is to say, able to see the end of the resource as we know it. Maybe that's why petroleum is not considered a "renewable" resource, eh?

More to the point, as I understand it, the production of petroleum requires special circumstances. If I understand it correctly, it requires large amounts of organic matter, concentrated into small "containers", which are not exposed to oxygen or the normal weathering, and solar exposure that is the everyday circumstance on the surface of the planet. Otherwise, the material breaks down in the usual methods that we are used to seeing ourselves - namely, rot, and being washed away into the ecosystem.

I suspect the term "diminishing returns" may be applicable, because I don't believe that there is any petroleum production on the planet that could be keeping up with current needs, or even a substantial percentage of our needs. Again, I am not a scientist, and I may not fully understand the processes, but I also can not think of anywhere on the planet that the plants and animals die in large quantities all at once, and, upon dying get encased into an airtight system allowing for the creation of petroleum.

Do you?
.
.
.
I don't know what the ultimate solution to our energy needs is. I am not so arrogant as to believe that I could even understand all the variables. I am, however, pretty sure that it is not in the burning of fossil fuels, nor the production of poisonous lithium batteries.. I am also not so gullible as to believe that Solar (as handled today) is the ultimate answer... nor wind, nor wave, nor nuclear, nor anything else we have on the design boards today.

We've only been trying to solve this problem with any real resolve for a period of time measured in decades. By the time your grandchildren have grandchildren, everything that we have "figured out" up to today will be considered the "infancy" of energy science. In other words, we are really clueless children, throwing sand at each other in the sandbox, each convinced that our own answer is the RIGHT answer. Poppycock.

That doesn't mean we should quit talking about it, however. It just means that we are better served to smile at ideas that are not feasible (i.e, I am still laughing at my boss, who believes in perpetual motion machines as seen on youtube,), and move on to discussing ideas that have real potential.

On the surface of it, I like the idea of using Solar Energy to harvest hydrogen from water, for use when solar production can not keep up with demand. For the SHORT TERM. Someone wiser, and better-read than me would have to asses it for environmental impact, as well as economic feasibility. I just think it sounds good, at first glance. In the long term, I have to think that what we need has not yet been conceived of, but sits just on the horizon, awaiting that next brilliant mind to discover the connections that make it work.

Eventually, however, some better idea has to come along, and when it does, we'd be wise to be poised to make the transition...

...But that's a different discussion.
 
  • #478
Physics_Kid said:
on the other hand, hydrogen could care less about where the sun is, and from what i can see, 1,386 million cubic kilometers (km3) of water is there ready to use for hydrogen. but like usual, we need energy to get that H, so maybe some solar farms for day time, a few nukes for night time production, and, you don't need a large footprint like solar does.
Hydrogen storage has a poor efficiency (~50%), and if you are worried about the safety of batteries you should be really worried about the safety hazards huge amounts of hydrogen pose.

Nuclear power and a bit of solar power together can do the job, you don't need huge hydrogen farms. Some wind in addition can work as well. Hydro for short-term fluctuations where applicable. You might get an overproduction once in a while, but most of the time the power plants run at reasonable levels.
Physics_Kid said:
and since oils makes itself in the earth, at what point does that black gold becomes over abundant again and you get 55gal drums for $2. its a vicious cycle, and from what i can see, Musk and the like talk fancy words so they can shift $$ in their direction.
What we burn in a single year is something like the oil produced in a million years. The rate of new oil formation is completely negligible.
It is not sufficient to just propose something - you have to check if the numbers work out. Otherwise proposals are pointless.
Physics_Kid said:
what are these hydrogen fuel cells i hear of?
They use hydrogen produced somewhere, either from natural gas (then you effectively burn that) or via electrolysis (then you have to put in more electricity than you get out).

A "feedback" system does not make sense. You can produce hydrogen from electricity, you can store it, you can burn it (in fuel cells, ideally) to recover a part of the invested energy, typically about 50%. Done.
Physics_Kid said:
"Buy lithium batts" is like "Buy DC power" that Edison once sold.
A side-remark: If we would build a new grid today, it would probably be DC. Power electronics made the transformation between voltages efficient enough, and you don't have to deal with all sorts of nasty issues of AC transmission. It is too late to switch now, but several long-distance transmission lines are built using DC.
 
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  • #479
Physics_Kid said:
cant we use solar to pump a ton of sea water into the great lakes during the day, and then at night catch the water in hrydro plants as it travels back to the sea, no harsh pollution in this process, a pseudo capacitor.

Ummm, The Great Lakes are fresh water (The largest fresh water reserve in the world, I might add,) - pumping in salt water from the sea would not only destroy the local wildlife habitat, and fisheries whose spawning beds rely on a consistent water chemistry and depth to the surface, but also plunge many millions of people into drought, as those dependent on the water for drinking would be forced to rely on the resources of those that are adjoining that "water economy", but not already participating in it, and do not have the infrastructure to support addition populations.

Did you know that Lake Michigan also drains into the Mississippi, something that was not true, until MAN reversed the course of the river? That means any salt in Lake Michigan would eventually contaminate every state bordering the Mississippi, and eventually dump into the Gulf of Mexico!

That's an extremely harsh pollution factor to that ecosystem, IMO. Parts of that ecosystem may be invisible to the naked eye, but they're there, and very delicately balanced, in the large scheme of things.

Also, as the Great Lakes has a minimal "tide", the resulting "wave" that your proposed pumping would make might interfere with nesting grounds for birds, lizards, amphibians, and small mammals, that live in and near the marshy areas, many of which are already underwater for short periods of time each spring, during snow-melt. Oh, and never mind the foolish humans who build their homes inches above the high water mark.

In other words, you have proposed Armageddon for a substantial portion of the United States and Canada. Amazing how easy it is to destroy millions of square miles of habitat, huh?

Otherwise, I think the concept is worth discussing. Seriously. It's very similar to how a hydro-electric dam regulates electricity production, so the science wouldn't be terribly hard to adapt. While it would be foolhardy to think we could introduce water to an existing ecosystem, we could create an ecosystem from (almost) scratch. Franklin Roosevelt did it when the TVA dammed up valleys in mountain passes. And while I am sure they destroyed ecosystems for land and river/stream based creatures (not to mention forcibly removing whole villages of people when the water started rising,) we could certainly weigh the loses against the benefits. For that matter, we could capture small amounts of water coming from those dams during the nights, and pump them back up during the day. But again, I wonder if the scale of such operations could be worthwhile, without again disturbing, or destroying the ecosystems, and the lifestyles of the inhabitants of the region?

Too bad water towers are such an eyesore, huh?

Keep thinking, dreaming, imagining - it's how every human advancement was ever born.
 
  • #480
Blank_Stare said:
Maybe that's why petroleum is not considered a "renewable" resource, eh?
there is absolutely nothing that is renewable. all of the consumed energy is only increasing entropy of the universe, even the Earth is releasing its' energy to space, lost to never return again. second law of thermodynamics.

so for all the energy-folks who want to call sources "renewable", is hogwash.

we are only talking about efficient use of energy, and what that source is doesn't matter. surely energy from the sun is most efficient (it comes for free), but for obvious reasons the fact of rotation leaves the problem only half solved.

if we could leave batts out and use solar for day and nuke for night, could we get ~500-2000yrs until we need to rid nuke power because uranium is now all gone, all w/o oil use for electric?
 

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