Implied Correlation: Var(a/c) Formula Explained

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In summary, the conversation discusses implied correlation and its relationship to implied volatility for FX options. It also delves into various formulas for calculating correlation and variance. Ultimately, the participants agree that a minus sign is correct in the formula for Var(a/c).
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volplayer
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Hi,

Haven't studied math for a while and thought I'd ask you for help. It regards implied correlation based on implied volatility for FX options.

(b/c)=(a/c)/(a/b)

Var(b/c) = Var(a/c)+Var(a/b) - 2*Sigma(a/c)*Sigma(a/b)*Corr(a/c,a/b)

When breaking out the Corr(a/c,a/b) from the formula, we get the following:

Corr(a/c,a/b) = (Var(a/c)+Var(a/b)-Var(b/c)) / (2*Sigma(a/c)*Sigma(a/b))

Now let's break out (a/c)

(a/c) = (b/c) * (a/b)

Now I have understood that the Corr(b/c,a/b) formula is the following

Corr(b/c,a/b) = (Var(a/c)-Var(b/c)-Var(a/b)) / (2*Sigma(b/c)*Sigma(a/b))

Does this mean the Var(a/c) formula is like the following

Var(a/c) = Var(b/c)+Var(a/b) + 2*Sigma(b/c)*Sigma(a/b)*Corr(b/c,a/b) ?

I.e. you have a PLUS instead of a MINUS infront of the 2*Sigma*Sigma*Corr part?


Happy if someone could answer this.
 
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  • #2
The minus sign is correct. What we have here is just a version of the law of cosines although your notation as fractions is very confusing. Try to determine your random variables in a proper way first.
 

FAQ: Implied Correlation: Var(a/c) Formula Explained

1. What is implied correlation?

Implied correlation is a measure of the relationship between two variables, typically used in financial modeling. It is derived from the market prices of options and reflects the expected correlation between the underlying assets.

2. How is implied correlation calculated?

The implied correlation is calculated using the Var(a/c) formula, which takes into account the standard deviations of the two assets, their correlation, and the option prices. This formula is based on the assumption that the market prices of options reflect the market's expectation of future volatility and correlation.

3. Why is implied correlation important?

Implied correlation is important because it provides insight into the market's expectation of the relationship between two assets. It is used in financial modeling to calculate risk and inform investment decisions.

4. What are the limitations of implied correlation?

Implied correlation is based on market prices and is therefore subject to market fluctuations and biases. It also assumes that the market's expectation of future volatility and correlation is accurate, which may not always be the case.

5. How can implied correlation be used in risk management?

Implied correlation can be used in risk management to assess the potential risk of a portfolio or investment. By incorporating the expected correlation between assets, it can help in hedging against potential losses and optimizing portfolio diversification.

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