- #1
RedPhoenix
- 26
- 0
Another Conditional Problem...
Lie Detector is
95% reliable when the person is guilty
98% reliable when innocent
Random Person pulled from a pool of people... This pool is 6% guilty of theft and 94% have never stolen...
Random person was determined guilty from the lie detector, what is the probability he is innocent?
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My attempt...
(.95)(.06) / [(.95)(.06) + (.02)(1-.06)] = .7512 . so 75.12% chance of him being guilty. Seems low, but I guess the fact that the pool of people has only 6% guilty in it, it lowers the chance a lot.
Lie Detector is
95% reliable when the person is guilty
98% reliable when innocent
Random Person pulled from a pool of people... This pool is 6% guilty of theft and 94% have never stolen...
Random person was determined guilty from the lie detector, what is the probability he is innocent?
-------------------------------
My attempt...
(.95)(.06) / [(.95)(.06) + (.02)(1-.06)] = .7512 . so 75.12% chance of him being guilty. Seems low, but I guess the fact that the pool of people has only 6% guilty in it, it lowers the chance a lot.