Tractability of posterior distributions

In summary, the problem of estimating the posterior distribution is considered difficult due to the high dimensionality of the parameters and the need for a multivariate Gaussian prior. However, the posterior distribution is also expected to be Gaussian, which can be estimated using an optimization problem. The main challenge lies in visualizing how this optimization problem would work and how to obtain direct observations of the parameters for accurate estimation.
  • #1
pamparana
128
0
Hello,
I am trying to understand what makes estimating the posterior distribution such a hard problem.

So, imagine I need to estimate the posterior distribution over a set of parameters given the data y, so a quantity [itex]P(\theta|y)[/itex] and [itex]\theta[/itex] is generally high dimensional.

The prior over [itex]\theta[/itex] is a multivariate Gaussian i.e. [itex]P(θ)∼N(θ;0,Σ)[/itex]

The likelihood i.e. [itex]P(y|θ)[/itex] can be written down as product over Gaussian likelihoods.

Now, it seems to be that the posterior distribution will also be Gaussian. Is that correct?

Secondly, going through Bishop's book, it seems that the conditional posterior distributions and the marginal distributions will be Gaussian as well (assuming that the joint distribution over the parameters and data is Gaussian) and should have a closed form solution. If that is the case, why is this problem intractable?

If I need to find the parameters of this posterior distribution, can this not be set as an optimisation problem where I estimate the mean and covariance of the posterior Gaussian? I am basically having trouble visualising why this problem is complicated?
 
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  • #2
pamparana said:
If I need to find the parameters of this posterior distribution, can this not be set as an optimisation problem where I estimate the mean and covariance of the posterior Gaussian?

I don't understand how you will set up the problem. If we have a multivariate gaussian we can estimate its parameters from observations of the variates. If you have a Gaussian posterior distribution where the variables are [itex] \theta [/itex], are you assuming you have data that gives direct observations of [itex] \theta [/itex] ?
 

1. What is the meaning of tractability in the context of posterior distributions?

Tractability in the context of posterior distributions refers to the ease with which the posterior distribution can be calculated or approximated. A tractable posterior distribution is one that can be easily manipulated or analyzed, while an intractable posterior distribution is one that is computationally difficult or impossible to work with.

2. How do we determine if a posterior distribution is tractable?

The tractability of a posterior distribution depends on the properties of the prior distribution and the likelihood function. In general, simpler and more well-behaved distributions tend to be more tractable, while complex or highly skewed distributions may be more difficult to work with.

3. Can we always find an analytical solution for a posterior distribution?

No, not all posterior distributions have an analytical solution. In fact, many real-world problems involve complex or high-dimensional data, making it impossible to find an analytical solution. In these cases, numerical methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) may be used to approximate the posterior distribution.

4. How does the tractability of a posterior distribution affect Bayesian inference?

The tractability of a posterior distribution can greatly impact the accuracy and efficiency of Bayesian inference. If the posterior distribution is intractable, it may be difficult or impossible to accurately estimate the parameters or make predictions. In these cases, alternative methods or approximations may be necessary.

5. What are some methods for dealing with intractable posterior distributions?

There are several methods for dealing with intractable posterior distributions, including numerical approximations like MCMC, variational inference, and importance sampling. Other techniques, such as data augmentation or using simpler prior distributions, may also help improve the tractability of the posterior distribution.

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