What is Prediction: Definition and 120 Discussions

A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about a future event. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.
Although future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "is at least two things: Important and hard."

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  1. B

    Confidence and prediction interval

    I need help with this question. Suppose we are making predictions of the dependent variable y for specific values of the independent variable x using a simple linear regression model holding the confidence level constant. Let C.I = the width of the confidence interval for the average value y...
  2. wolram

    UK Storm Monday: Who Will Be Right?

    So a storm is going to hit the UK on Monday, and i have seen various predictions to its severity, these vary from worst storm this year to worst storm in 100yrs, it will be interesting to see who is right, i hope it turns out to be a storm in a tea cup.
  3. mattmns

    Confidence (Prediction) Interval after transformation

    Hi, I am a stuck on figuring out how to get a 95% prediction confidence interval after I do a transformation. Here are some details. So we have some data on the brain weight and body weight of different mammals, and we are to perform linear regression on the data, predicting brain weight from...
  4. R

    News Will Dick Cheney's prediction come true?

  5. K

    Prediction Intervals (Critical Levels)

    Hello Enuma et als. I have a few related questions regarding Prediction Intervals for outliers (individual data points). The basic formula that I use is: Mean +/- T(-1df)*sd*sqrt(1+1/n), where Mean is the sample mean, T is the Z-score from the Student's T Distribution Table minus 1 degree of...
  6. J

    Time for a Poll: Higgs Mass Prediction

    What mass will the lightest Higgs found in the next three years have? No Higgs found in next three years, Below 114 GeV 114-130 GeV 130-150 Gev 150-180 GeV 180-220 Gev 220-360 Gev Above 360 GeV Notes: 1. MSSM Higgs predicted less than 130 GeV, non supersymmetric SM Higgs probably...
  7. J

    The Limits of Prediction: Students’ Conceptions of Chaotic Behavior in Nonlinear Sys.

    My UC Berkeley Master's Thesis in physics education is attached. It has to do with students' conceptions of the limits of prediction in chaotic systems. Feel free to read it and to let me know what you think. Take Care, Jed Stamas Cambridge, MA jed underscore stamas at yahoo dot com
  8. B

    The Higgs Boson mass prediction for LHC: string theory's prediction v.s preon theory

    Thanks Lubos, Dear Lubos, Does string theory offer a concrete prediction for the mass of the higgs boson? Thanks Dan PS would you mind if I cross-post your response at sci.physics or PF? dan | 10.01.06 - 5:58 pm | # Dear dan, string theorists - just like everyone else - are...
  9. B

    Yershov's Preon Theory & Bilson-Thompson & LQG & mass prediction

    it's my understanding that Yershov's Preon Theory can predict particle masses a priori and his paper also describes second and third generation particles, whereas Bilson-Thompson only the first generation. http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0301034 http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0207132 Is it...
  10. marcus

    Results of last year's CDT prediction poll

    the results in this case are very simple. Over a dozen of us guessed as to whether (understood "in a reasonable time") Loll's team would be able to extend the sum-over-topologies result from 2D to 3D and ultimately to 4D. Of the 12 people who registered a forecast, and are still forum members...
  11. marcus

    Spinfoam 4D unification hazards a prediction

    To be science a theory must bet its life on the outcome of some future observation. That is what it means to predict something new and to be falsifiable. If the observation goes against the theory's prediction then the theory is wrong. so the theories of space time and matter that are currently...
  12. marcus

    Nominations 2nd quarter M.I.P. prediction poll

    Please post suggestions for what could turn out to be "Most Influential Paper" that you see between now and June. We just had a 1st quarter 2006 M.I.P. forecast poll and 11 people responded by indicated which of 6 papers they predicted to be the most valuable for future research. Those were 6...
  13. Loren Booda

    Quantum measurement and prediction

    Does the process of genuine prediction act most readily through quantum mechanics, as opposed to psychically or psychologically? Can observers influence the environment through the action of "quantum prediction" as they do quantum measurement? Does quantum prediction rely on the statistics...
  14. M

    Solving Analysts' Inflation Prediction Problems

    the following problems i have trouble solving, please help: :smile: each member of a random sample of 15 analysts was asked to predict the rate of inflation for the coming year. assume that the predictions for the whole population of analysts follow a normal distribution with the standard...
  15. ohwilleke

    Another MOND prediction confirmed.

    http://uk.arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0504051 But, in the other direction we have: http://uk.arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0503104 This involves the so called "dark galaxy" and contains the caveat that the measurements are not yet considered definitive. And, for all around MOND/TeVeS junkies...
  16. R

    Predicting Chemical Reactions: How to Determine and Write Out Products

    I am suppose to write a chemical reactions for each of the following: A) HNO3(aq) + Ca(OH)2(aq) B) C7H16 + O2 C) Ca + KBr D) Cl2 + HF F) Cl2 + HI How do I know if they have any chemical reactions and how do I write them out? I really really really really really really need...
  17. Loren Booda

    Physical prediction from the ecosystem genome

    Could one forecast the weather, analyze trends in geology, or presage changes in overall living systems by using the information presently available in the DNA of nature's genome? The data that has survived with worldwide genetic material may provide a revelation for all systems of the Earth...
  18. R

    Earthquake Prediction for 2004,for the World

    Dear Sirs, I send you the next earthquake prediction for the World for 2004. Japan: 15th of September,8th of October,10th and 19th and 21th and 25th of November(maybe earthquake storm),7th and 19th of December Mongolia:28th of September Algeria:7th-8th of September,28th of...
  19. S

    Define prediction appropriately

    I am not sure if there is a scientific process here that can define prediction appropriately, and not loose itself to some refined processes called prophecy? So I wanted to share some thoughts here. In looking at Ramanujan, his story is a interesting one, where the mathematical ideas seem...
  20. wolram

    Is there a prediction for the frequency of a gravity wave?

    is it known how much gravitational force is needed to deflect a photon from its true path? is there a prediction for the frequency of a gravity wave? apart from the graviton are there other in vogue thories for the propogation of gravity? can gravity be deflected? does the speed of gravity...
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