What is Prediction: Definition and 120 Discussions

A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about a future event. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.
Although future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "is at least two things: Important and hard."

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  1. U

    Multiple variable prediction interval

    Hey! I'm working with some regression related stuff at the moment and i'd need some help with multiple variable prediction interval. Prediction interval for a single variable can be calculated using PI = \hat{\beta_0}+\hat{\beta_1}x_i \pm t^* s_e \sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n} +...
  2. G

    Understanding Photons: The Role of Energy and Momentum in their Existence

    i have read that existence of photons as a mass less particles came from the energy momentum equation. E^2 = (mc^2)^2 + (pc)^2 and that since when m = 0, there is still an energy = pc but, sunce momentum defined as m*v, and mass is absolute quantity, then why that m = 0 which we were...
  3. jk22

    EPR paradox and prediction time

    If we suppose we have an entangled pair in position/momentum and, following the argument, we measure position of particle A. We get a result let say xA. Then we want to predict the measurement of position of B, so up to now we have not measured particle B, but we know it's wave-function is a...
  4. M

    Recommended Books for Beginners in Particle Physics

    How can we theoretically predict half lives?
  5. carllacan

    Difference between prediction and update on Bayesian Filters

    Hi. I have a couple ofsimple question about Bayesian Filters, just to check that I'm correctly grasping everything. I've been thinking on the difference between the prediction and update steps. I understand the "Physical" difference: in the first one we calculate the probability of the world...
  6. L

    Prediction of reactor End of cycle

    There is a technical document in reactor operation which contains neutronic calculations to predict reactor situation in different power lever and effective power days. Operators use this document which usually called Album of Reactor Core Neutronic to operate the reactor based on that. This...
  7. C

    Prediction of observables from wavefunction

    Homework Statement The wavefunction of a particle is given as $$u(r,\theta,\phi) = AR(r)f(\theta)\cos(2\phi),$$ where ##f## is an unknown function of ##\theta##. What can be predicted about the results of measuring a) The z component of angular momentum b)The square of the angular momentum...
  8. U

    Prediction of electron position

    Hi, I am working on a problem where my goal is to predict the location of pedestrians with certain constraints. So I have equations for the pedestrian motion (using social forces model) which is based on the idea of pedestrians movements are based on the forces acting upon them. For example, if...
  9. R

    Prediction interval for generalized linear model

    I am currently working on a prediction problem using generalized linear model, My goal is to get the prediction distribution of the response variable. I read a thread (https://stat.ethz.ch/pipermail/r-help/2003-May/033165.html) saying the prediction uncertainty of a generalized linear model...
  10. X

    R squared or coefficients for prediction

    I created a little model that predicts the time a task will take to execute. Than, I calculate the real time that the task took to execute. With the predict and real value I have the error of my prediction. I want to use that error to predict the next execution (the next execution is a similar...
  11. mishima

    Nightly Cloud Cover Prediction

    Hi, I was wondering if I would, or would not, be able to predict the cloud cover for a night using a minimum of simple instruments during the day. If so, how and what instruments? Obviously I could just look at a satellite image or something, but I was wondering how I could do it without...
  12. M

    Prediction of volume of solid-liquid solution

    How does the volume of a solid in liquid solution change compared to the volume of the pure volume of the solvent? If suppose I make a solution with a solid as solute and a liquid as solvent, and for simplification I assume that the solute is completely soluble in the given amount of...
  13. mathmaniac1

    MHB Prediction of Motion After Ideal Collision - Masses M & m

    A body of mass M moves with velocity V and collides with a body of mass m moving at v.Given,the conditions are ideal(vaccum),can you find everything that happens next like final speed,acceleration,distance moved ...etc? Thanks in advance for any help...
  14. M

    Differential amplifer frequency responce prediction

    Hey! I was wondering, how would I predict the frequency response of the circuit below when v2 is grounded? I have actually measured the response which is also shown below, v2 is grounded. I know the input impedance of the circuit and therefore I calculated the frequency response of the...
  15. I

    DNA based genetic disorders prediction

    I belong to ECE department. I know some basics of DNA structure and DNA based sensors. With a DNA in hand can we predict the genetic disorders of a person? If yes how? which part of DNA possesses the characteristics of genetic disorders ? Also by taking the DNA of a women and hybridizing it with...
  16. S

    Testing Is the SAT Math an Accurate Predictor of Engineering and Physics Success?

    How do you guys think the SAT, manily the math section accurately judges ones ability? I have heard people say if you get below x, usually 600 to 700 you will never succeed in engineering or physics. I would think its more on how much you study and that the SAT is there more tovtrick you any...
  17. C

    Prediction error in a random sample

    I have an exercise that I do not understand how to solve (statistics and probability is really my weaker part...). The exercise goes as follow: In a certain population, the random variable Y has variance equal to 490. Two independent random samples, each of size 20, are drawn. The first...
  18. Pythagorean

    News Romney's VP pic prediction

    Some say you can tell who's going to be VP by how many wiki edits their page is getting... it's almost as if somebody has millions of dollars to hire a lot of lobbyists to go to wiki war...
  19. S

    How is the QM prediction derived for Bell's tests?

    Question 1: how is the QM prediction (i.e. cosine curve, shown below) derived for Bell's tests? in layman' termss Question 2: while Malus's law, some physicists say, is not related to this cosine curve. Is there an indirect/lengthy way to connect the two...
  20. B

    Writer looking for help regarding death prediction

    Hi, I'm writing a novel set in the future and wanted to find an opinion on the future possibility of determining a person's life expectancy down to a fairly specific prediction. For example, If you had a very old man and access to all of his medical information (dna, etc.), could you predict...
  21. marcus

    More exact prediction of collision with Andromeda galaxy

    A HST team measure the sideways motion of Andromeda so they can be definite about the collision.Here is a movie. http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/archive/releases/2012/20/video/a/ Here are the technical papers that the movie and press releases are based on: http://arxiv.org/abs/1205.6865 The...
  22. R

    Runge-Kutta for gravitational N-Body simulation - prediction of acceleration

    Runge-Kutta for gravitational N-Body simulation - "prediction" of acceleration Hey! I'm Raph, as you can see this is my first post, so, thus I'll start saying that it's nice to be here ;). I've got the following question: I'm simulating a system of N gravitationally interacting objects...
  23. I_am_learning

    Earthquake Prediction: Can We Pre-Warn People?

    The seismic waves of earthquake travels at around 5 km/s. Wouldn't it be possible to setup network of detectors through out the world, and pre-warn people about approaching earthquake in real-time?
  24. harrylin

    Scientifc method, hypotheses and prediction testing

    In a parallel thread the scientific method became a subtopic, together with claims concerning "Intelligent Design"; a little elaboration may be useful. A discussion of the "scientific method" can be found in Wikipedia (I think that the summary is quite OK); a clear description can also be found...
  25. W

    Stochastically find dissimilarity between time series data and model prediction

    I have many time series, with each featuring fifteen data points (x,t). I wish to fit a parameterised model to each data series. At present I'm using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) for this purpose. Within my objective function I quantify fitness using the Bray Curtis distance between a)...
  26. A

    Reaction Prediction - Is there a reaction?

    Homework Statement sodium oxide plus water --> ? Is there a reaction? Homework Equations sodium oxide plus water yield sodium hydroxideThe Attempt at a Solution Na2O + H2O --> 2NaOH I don't understand whether or not there is a reaction. The problem does not give any states of matter, so how...
  27. C

    Tensile Testing - Material Failure Prediction

    Hi all, This is not really a homework problem, more of a 'what-if' scenario but I'm not sure which section to put it in. For a science project we have been asked to look at material properites and come up with a project (which will have a presentation :eek: but that's another story). I'm looking...
  28. F

    Prediction of pair production via WIMP decay? (Layman question)

    Hello, This may sound silly, don't be afraid to let me know just how silly though! I've read that predictions are made using the standard model. I do not know the details of this process. I understand pair production occurs randomly in a vacuum, but I wondered if there was an underlying...
  29. russ_watters

    News New Twist on Obama Unemployment Prediction

    The Obama 8% unemployment claim/prediction has popped up again and there's a new twist to it that I found very interesting. Here's the Politifact entry on the counterclaim (ie, that Republicans claim Obama said XXX)...
  30. J

    Einstein's 1911 prediction (Gravitational Lensing)

    Hi. I am trying to make my way through http://www.mathpages.com/rr/s8-09/8-09.htm one step at a time if I have too. I already got stuck once, where it says: The paper makes it sound like these two variables are constant, but the way it should be defined is "Let t1 be the time...
  31. M

    Prediction covariance matrix with Kalman filter

    Hello all. I have set up a model using the Kalman filter to estimate automobile prices. I'm having difficulty in figuring out how to formulate a prediction covariance matrix based on the model, i.e. given a set y_{new} = y_1, \ldots, y_N of N cars, finding the covariance matrix based on the...
  32. L

    Prediction interval, which brackets?

    Prediction interval, which brackets!? Hi, this is a quick question for a piece of statistics coursework I am doing. I have made a prediction interval with an upper bound of let's say 30 and lower of 20. I just don't know which brackets to use open or close e.g. (20,30) [20,30] (20,30]...
  33. R

    Quantum Jitter and 120 Magnitude Prediction

    Quantum Jitter is supposed to fill space with very dense energy that the cosmological constant should increase by over 120 magnitude. Yet it is not so and the worse prediction ever made by physics as they say. Could the reason this be so is because virtual particles are just figment of the...
  34. M

    Statistical model for soccer prediction

    My goal is to implement a web based software to provide a soccer forecast table like http://www.gymex.com/Predictions.html" as an interesting feature for visitors. I don't have any problem with coding the application but I need a set of clear instructions to start coding. I read an article by...
  35. T

    Testing a prediction model

    Hey I have a neural network model that produces as an output a vector of 169 variables which represents the probabilty of having a certain hand in poker (2 random cards dealt from a regular deck - 169 possibilities if considering only if the cards are from same suit or not). The model...
  36. L

    No prediction ever been wrong ?

    I read that no quantum theory prediction ever been wrong! But I also read that at high speed (near light speed) the theory give wrong calculation result? This seem contradictory to me ? Is this theory only valid at slow speed ? If someone traveling near speed of light in is ship...
  37. I

    Organic Major Pathway prediction

    Homework Statement [PLAIN]http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc3/hs527.snc3/29952_406506367415_501337415_4229454_854152_n.jpg Homework Equations Alkyl halides can undergo substitution reactions (via SN1 or SN2 mechanisms) and/or elimination reactions (via E1 or E2 mechanisms)...
  38. S

    Prediction interval for unequal replicates

    Dear experts, I am trying to develop an algorithm for calibration studies (analytical chemistry). The algorithm could be used for estimation of calibration parameters, limit of detection & quantitation etc. For this I have to construct a prediction interval for the calibration curve. Now the...
  39. K

    Centrifugal pump's Test performance prediction from CFD

    How can we predict the actual test performance of pump from CFD. I need some formulation/calculation method to predict closure.
  40. Bob_for_short

    Particle Mass Prediction in Theoretical Physics: Success Stories

    I wonder if there are successful cases of particle mass prediction/calculation in Theoretical Particle Physics?
  41. W

    Regression strategy for hypothesis testing vs prediction

    Hi, I'm interested in this question primarily in how it relates to what is usually called classic or frequentist statistics (p-values, etc). I'm fully aware of how stepwise and other automated techniques can negatively impact analyses and render inference based upon parameter estimates...
  42. M

    Chemistry: Prediction of producs

    Homework Statement Predict products (and then write formula unit, total ionic unit & net ionic equations)1. Sodium Nitrate, Ammonium sulfate and Iron (III) acetate. 2. Na3PO4 + RbClO3 + Sr(NO3)2 Homework Equations ----------- The Attempt at a Solution 1. NaNO3 + (NH4)2S + Fe(CH3CO2)3 I...
  43. D

    Learning enough to understand the Higgs boson prediction?

    If I wanted to learn just enough physics and maths to understand the predicted existence of the Higgs boson, how long would that take? (Assuming average undergrad ability). If you view the prediction as the top point of a pyramid of knowledge, how big is that pyramid?
  44. I

    Probability of next prediction being correct

    Hello, So a friend of mine has been predicting the outcome of social events and I have been recording the accuracy of his predictions as true if he accurately predicted the outcome or false if he was incorrect. The results of his predictions I have tabulated in the two attached files thus...
  45. J

    Evolution Prediction: What's Next for Humans?

    Does evolution model predict what's next for each species? What's next for humans?
  46. M

    Statistics, prediction

    Homework Statement Given a simple linear model y = B1 + B2*x + e and the least square estimators, we can estimate E(y) for any value of x = x0 as Y0 = b1 + b2*x0 Describe the difference between predicting y0 and estimating E(y0) Homework Equations The Attempt at a Solution I am not sure what...
  47. T

    How do I use a Linear Prediction Filter?

    does anyone know how to do this? can you help me? thank you
  48. G

    How do you derive a Range prediction equation?

    Homework Statement Derive the equations for v0 and R, and show how you made your prediction. Homework Equations d = v0t +1/2at^2 The Attempt at a Solution The acceleration was zero, so I rewrote the equation: R(range) = v0t but then they substituted t with\sqrt{\frac{2Y}{g}}...
  49. S

    Can String Theory Predict the Mass of Leptons?

    Do we have prediction of Lepton mass (Electron, muon, tau) from any “Theory of everything” ? PS The string theory is here for decades. If string theory is truly a “theory of everything”, the Lepton mass should be predicted all ready. what is the status to this issue ?
  50. J

    Predict Satellite Sighting: A Space Engineer's Guide

    I am completely lost. I am taking a course in Space Engineering. I have been asked to predict (without a program/software) when I will be able to see a satelite from a given lat, long from earth. I know the altitude is 350KM and I also know the inclination angle to the equator. It is in a...
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