8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[Lacy33]

Astro, Are you serious?
And LisaB, I saw something today in midtown like that. Three Japanese girls were walking down the street. One in the middle was sobbing and holding a small American flag. They seem to have just picked her up from the train. They were trying to console her.

 

[russ_watters]

I'm giving Ivan the benefit of the doubt... I suspect he means that due to hysteria and lobbies it's going down, not by need alone.

Certainly hysteria has happened because of this. The media is measuring it with polls regarding people's "concern" about nuclear power and support for building new plants: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-03-17-rw_nukepoll14_ST_N.htm

It doesn't matter that no one has died because of it (though some almost certainly will). This is so far outside of peoples' everyday understanding and comfort zones, it is panic inducing. But consider that people accept the deaths of tens of thousands of people a year due to coal power without batting an eyelash (in the US). And few people panic over getting a seasonal flu despite the fact they also kill tens of thousands of people a year (in the US). SARS caused a global panic even though globally only a few thousand (IIRC) died and "swine flu" caused similar panic even though it ended up being not much worse than a typical seasonal flu.

I have great pride in keeping myself to scientific thoughts, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere in Japan right now, even though I know intellectually that the risk is relatively low unless I was very close to one of the plants.

So even if this disaster doesn't surpass Chernobyl, killing less than 100 people in the short term, people are still going to panic just like they did with SARS. Ironically, people would probably be more comfortable with nuclear power if such accidents happened once a year. Then, they'd be in our realm of "normal".

 

[jreelawg]

This might be kind of a dumb question, but, when the diesel generators failed, why couldn't they just bring in new generators?

 

[Amp1]

I read - a local tabloid - the threat level is 6 now. Are they anticipating a Chernobyl event?

 

[turbo]

This might be kind of a dumb question, but, when the diesel generators failed, why couldn't they just bring in new generators?

Those had to be REALLY massive generators. I have had a lot of experience with pulp and paper mills and other mills that needed emergency on-demand generation to maintain critical systems in event of a sudden loss of power. I can't begin to imagine how much those would have to be scaled-up to service nuclear plants, though, because the electrical draws of the cooling systems required would be orders of magnitude larger than a typical industrial plant.

 

[SixNein]

Certainly hysteria has happened because of this.

I agree with you completely.

I think that a Chernobyl type of event was only a real possibility Friday. If the reactor shutdown process failed because of the earthquake, the fission process would have went out of control once the cooling process was interrupted. This is simply not the situation now.

 

[Angry Citizen]

I don't personally believe Chernobyl is possible. Chernobyl was pretty unique in its ability to disperse contaminants. Even if one of the containment units are cracked, that doesn't necessarily entail large scale dispersal of contaminants beyond the plant, and certainly not onto the wider islands. It is lucky that the plant is located on the eastern side of Japan, which I would presume would typically have winds from the west, leading to dispersal out to sea.

 

[Astronuc]

This might be kind of a dumb question, but, when the diesel generators failed, why couldn't they just bring in new generators?

The earthquakes and tsunami did a lot of damage to the infrastructure around Fukushima! As soon as the EDGs failed, they immediately attempted to get backup generators/power supply.

 

[nismaratwork]

Hopefully, I'll be headed to Fukushima as soon as feasible.

Don't even think it... that reactor #4 is putting out truly lethal doses...

@Russ: I know... it's hard to explain to people that, on one hand this is truly a catastophe, but on the other it's nothing compared to what we do every day burning coal. People hear nuclear, and they see Ivy Mike... that is a hard nut to crack.

I think you're right about the fear borne of unfamiliarity... I think that's part of the terrifying aspect of chemical weapons... after all, you're just as dead if you get hit by a Katyusha rocket, but somehow people can reconcile that.

I also have to agree with your statement about staying out of Japan, in part, because there can be no trust of TEPCO, or the IAEA, which has shirked its duties so badly it's painful. We're people... we can't always be rational when invisible things are potentially shortening out lives.

 

[Astronuc]

Comparisons to Chernobyl are premature - we don't have a basis.

Once we know how much fuel is damaged (breached), i.e., the source term, then we can start to determine the amount of radioactivity released. Then we can compare to Chernobyl.

Please be patient. We all want to know.


BTW -this might have been mentioned elsewhere, but -

Mag 6.2 in Eastern Honshu, Japan!

Date-Time Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:31:46 UTC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:31:46 PM at epicenter

Location: 35.300°N, 138.700°E

Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region
Distances:
36 km (22 miles) S of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
37 km (22 miles) NW of Numazu, Honshu, Japan
42 km (26 miles) NNE of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
116 km (72 miles) WSW of TOKYO, Japan

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc00023fx.php#maps

 

[nismaratwork]

The Japanese people officially cannot catch a break.

 

[SixNein]

Comparisons to Chernobyl are premature - we don't have a basis.

Once we know how much fuel is damaged (breached), i.e., the source term, then we can start to determine the amount of radioactivity released. Then we can compare to Chernobyl.

Please be patient. We all want to know.

I think any comparisons to Chernobyl is an invitation to panic. And I don't think there is a comparison to be made here. This event will be unique in its own right, and it will have its own unique safety concerns.

I'm annoyed about the lack of information about radiation releases occurring around the plant. I wish I knew some formulas to estimate it off of the available information.

 

[nismaratwork]

I think any comparisons to Chernobyl is an invitation to panic. And I don't think there is a comparison to be made here. This event will be unique in its own right, and it will have its own unique safety concerns.

I'm annoyed about the lack of information about radiation releases occurring around the plant. I wish I knew some formulas to estimate it off of the available information.

Certainly there seems to be very little possibility of an explosion, and without that you can't loft as much cesium into the jetstream.

On the downside, the radiation field is really disgustingly nasty, and now reactor 3 is having issues with its pool

Sanjay Gupta is reporting that rad levels in Tokyo are 20x the norm.

 

[SixNein]

Certainly there seems to be very little possibility of an explosion, and without that you can't loft as much cesium into the jetstream.

On the downside, the radiation field is really disgustingly nasty, and now reactor 3 is having issues with its pool

Sanjay Gupta is reporting that rad levels in Tokyo are 20x the norm.

They should have data-sets available.

 

[nismaratwork]

They should have data-sets available.

They should, but I have no idea where. Keep in mind that Gupta and Cooper are in Tokyo... and I believe this is based on a revised statement by the Japanese government. Apparantly they were off by an order of magnitude.


WHoooopseeeee. :grumpy:

 

[Angry Citizen]

Sanjay Gupta is reporting that rad levels in Tokyo are 20x the norm.

That makes zero sense in light of this:

http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

According to the chart, radiation levels in Tokyo are decreasing. And as mentioned either in this thread or the other, could be clouded by the recent volcanic eruption.

 

[Astronuc]

I'm going to generally ignore the network media on this.

I watch a guy try to explain the Fukushima event with a diagram of a PWR. The Fukushima units are BWRs. Big diff.

 

[SixNein]

That makes zero sense in light of this:

http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

According to the chart, radiation levels in Tokyo are decreasing. And as mentioned either in this thread or the other, could be clouded by the recent volcanic eruption.

I was sitting here thinking about those graphs. So many contradictions in the media right now.

If anything is learned from this nuclear event, I think it should be the importance of providing data to the public. Unknowns and Fears go together.

 

[nismaratwork]

I'm going to generally ignore the network media on this.

I watch a guy try to explain the Fukushima event with a diagram of a PWR. The Fukushima units are BWRs. Big diff.

Ugh... that's... genuinely depressing.

@Angry: I agree, I can't see these dinks agreeing on a single 'fact' for more than 10 minutes. The downside is that this is causing distrust in Japan, where people really need to be trusting their government.

 

[nismaratwork]

I was sitting here thinking about those graphs. So many contradictions in the media right now.

If anything is learned from this nuclear event, I think it should be the importance of providing data to the public. Unknowns and Fears go together.

I wouldn't be so sure that the public info isn't just a reflection of the private info. It seems that until today, the info was coming from TEPCO, through the Japanese government, then recycles by the IAEA who haven't even ARRIVED.

 

[SixNein]

I'm going to generally ignore the network media on this.

I watch a guy try to explain the Fukushima event with a diagram of a PWR. The Fukushima units are BWRs. Big diff.

My favorite news report published on several web sites has been:

"Mr Grimston said it now seemed likely workers would flood the reactor building with sea water and boric acid – a good nutrient absorber."

http://www.mercia.co.uk/news/japanquake/fukushima-fallout-how-bad-could-it-get/


I guess... it absorbs the vitamin C lol

 

[nismaratwork]

My favorite news report published on several web sites has been:

"Mr Grimston said it now seemed likely workers would flood the reactor building with sea water and boric acid – a good nutrient absorber."

http://www.mercia.co.uk/news/japanquake/fukushima-fallout-how-bad-could-it-get/


I guess... it absorbs the vitamin C lol

Wow... you just know that was a spellcheck issue, and the editor looked over it and said, "yep, that's about right".

*facepalm*

 

[SixNein]

I wouldn't be so sure that the public info isn't just a reflection of the private info. It seems that until today, the info was coming from TEPCO, through the Japanese government, then recycles by the IAEA who haven't even ARRIVED.

But it goes back to my point about providing data sets. The nuclear industry needs to do something like the geological community has done with seismographs. Setup dedicated 24/7 online data-sets providing information.

 

[SixNein]

Wow... you just know that was a spellcheck issue, and the editor looked over it and said, "yep, that's about right".

*facepalm*

I just wonder how many editors have signed off on it.

 

[Angry Citizen]

But it goes back to my point about providing data sets. The nuclear industry needs to do something like the geological community has done with seismographs. Setup dedicated 24/7 online data-sets providing information.

What would that have done? The EDG's would still have been obliterated, and the reactors would still be in the same situation as a direct result of that obliteration.

 

[SixNein]

What would that have done? The EDG's would still have been obliterated, and the reactors would still be in the same situation as a direct result of that obliteration.

At the very least, it would have allowed people to monitor exposure. If the government says that there is no threat, people can validate the government.

 

[Astronuc]

But it goes back to my point about providing data sets. The nuclear industry needs to do something like the geological community has done with seismographs. Setup dedicated 24/7 online data-sets providing information.

Definitely TEPCO needed to do a better job. Then again, the people who would provide the data were probably concerned about their families, then dealing with multiple unexpected failures at the plant. The folks back at corporate probably had faith that the plant staff would get things quickly under control.

And things got out of hand. The plant was in Beyond Design Basis space. Going by the book doesn't necessarily work - because the folks who wrote those plans didn't expect failures of the EDGs and other systems.

The Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) will need review and revision.

The Site Characteristics and Design will need revision - but we can perhaps expect that Units 1, 2 and 3 will be mothballed, then at some point decommissioned. Unit 4 is also at risk. Units 5 and 6 might be salvaged - if the site isn't too contaminated.

 

[SixNein]

Here is the best source I've found on radiation there...

http://www.bousai.ne.jp/eng/

 

[jreelawg]

Ugh... that's... genuinely depressing.

@Angry: I agree, I can't see these dinks agreeing on a single 'fact' for more than 10 minutes. The downside is that this is causing distrust in Japan, where people really need to be trusting their government.

People in japan are going through a lot right now, and the whole situation is a logistical nightmare. The last thing they need is additional mass panic. And I get the feeling people in Japan are extra fearful of radiation, given their history, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

At first the situation was just shocking. When I heard the most recent news today, it finally started to sink in, and depressing is a good word.

Hope your friend is safe. Congratulations on becoming a gold member.

 

[Astronuc]

The earthquake swarm continues. Notice the more recent quakes occurring nearer to Tokyo and along the western coast and just west of Tokyo. There have been several 6+ mag quakes.

Can they expect another big one - 7 or 8+ soon?

 

[SixNein]

Definitely TEPCO needed to do a better job. Then again, the people who would provide the data were probably concerned about their families, then dealing with multiple unexpected failures at the plant. The folks back at corporate probably had faith that the plant staff would get things quickly under control.

I'm thinking of more automated systems as opposed to human data entry. If there was just informative dedicated radiation monitors accessible online, I think a lot of fear would be reduced in the general public. One big problem that is occurring with this situation is trust. And I think its a security issue that has been overlooked.

The entire way plants are monitored need to be stepped up. There are a lot of unknowns in the public and probably the private side too.

 

[SixNein]

The earthquake swarm continues. Notice the more recent quakes occurring nearer to Tokyo and along the western coast and just west of Tokyo. There have been several 6+ mag quakes.

Can they expect another big one - 7 or 8+ soon?

Japan is starting to look like Yellowstone on crack.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Don't know the significance of this, but Bloomberg reports that passengers arriving from Tokyo set off radiation detectors. While I'm sure the dosage was insignificant, I was surprised that there would be any residual radiation. Apparently no one was quarantined.

First link to come up

Two flights that originated in Tokyo and landed in Dallas and Chicago yesterday triggered radiation detectors when passengers passed through customs, The Post has learned.

Tests on the jet that landed at the Dallas-Fort Worth airport showed low levels of radiation on the travelers' luggage and inside the cabin's filtration system...

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/nation...nd_in_us_8n9AikZo0x2vDiIgF0cS8K#ixzz1Gq9uo3mI

 

[myth_kill]

man this is really sad to hear

effecting the living people inf ar off areas

all this had to happen

2012 is nearing :(

 

[Astronuc]

U.S. Calls Radiation 'Extremely High,' Sees Japan Nuclear Crisis Worsening
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17nuclear.html
By DAVID E. SANGER, MATTHEW L. WALD and HIROKO TABUCHI
The chairman of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave a bleaker appraisal of the threat, but Japanese officials played down the concerns.

NYTimes Quote of the Day (It's a really big deal - an operator is not supposed to allow the situation to get so out of hand that the local activity would affect the people attempting to deal with the emergency)
"We believe that radiation levels are extremely high, which could possibly impact the ability to take corrective measures."
GREGORY JACZKO, chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, on the crisis at a Japanese nuclear power plant.

Flaws in Japan's Leadership Deepen Sense of Crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17tokyo.html
By HIROKO TABUCHI, KEN BELSON and NORIMITSU ONISHI
Never has Japan's weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed or mattered so much.

I wonder about the rudderless government (as it pertains to the lack of fiscal responsibility or the lack of determination to assist pro-democracy rebells in Libya, etc) in the US.

Foreign nuclear experts, the Japanese press and an increasingly angry and rattled Japanese public are frustrated by government and power company officials’ failure to communicate clearly and promptly about the nuclear crisis. Pointing to conflicting reports, ambiguous language and a constant refusal to confirm the most basic facts, they suspect officials of withholding or fudging crucial information about the risks posed by the ravaged Daiichi plant.
. . . .
Evasive news conferences followed uninformative briefings as the crisis intensified over the past five days. Never has postwar Japan needed strong, assertive leadership more — and never has its weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed. With earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis striking in rapid, bewildering succession, Japan’s leaders need skills they are not trained to have: rallying the public, improvising solutions and cooperating with powerful bureaucracies.
. . . .

I see I'm not the only one who is frustrated and somewhat bewildered at the respsonses in Japan - not so much the folks at the plant - but TEPCO and the government.