Are these results possibly the outcome of a probabilistic calculation?

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An experiment about hazard and randomness applied to the fluctuation of the price of Bitcoin, without any use of math, A.I. and using very few data, gives very good results, Is it possible ? Give your annlyse.
Hello, I am seeking the opinion of specialists in statistics and probabilities to evaluate the results of a forecast on a univariate time series derived from an experiment at hazcard.com. They are presented as obtained from a logic that includes no probability calculation, no learning, no use of strategies, and only utilizes a limited history of 10 values as a working basis.

Can these results be considered possible, impossible, manipulated...

Thank you for your assistance.
 
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I wouldn't believe them. Given the obvious ups and downs of the value of bitcoin, they would have a lot to prove.
 

1. What does it mean when results are said to be the outcome of a probabilistic calculation?

When results are described as the outcome of a probabilistic calculation, it means that the results were determined through methods that incorporate randomness or statistical probabilities. Instead of being absolute or deterministic, these outcomes depend on various random variables and are expressed in terms of likelihoods or probabilities. This approach is often used in scenarios where uncertainty is inherent, such as in weather forecasting, stock market predictions, or quantum physics experiments.

2. How can we determine if results are from a probabilistic calculation?

To determine if results are from a probabilistic calculation, one can look at the methodology used to obtain the results. If the methodology involves statistical models, simulations or scenarios that include random variables, or if the results are presented with confidence intervals or probabilities, it is likely that the results are derived from probabilistic calculations. Reviewing the research or analysis documentation where the methods are explicitly stated can also provide this insight.

3. What is the significance of results being probabilistic?

The significance of probabilistic results lies in their ability to handle uncertainty and provide a range of possible outcomes rather than a single fixed result. This is particularly useful in complex systems where precise outcomes are impossible to predict due to the influence of many unknown or variable factors. Probabilistic results help in decision-making by allowing individuals and organizations to weigh risks and prepare for various potential scenarios.

4. Can probabilistic results be trusted as accurate?

Probabilistic results can be trusted as accurate within the context of their stated probabilities and assumptions. They are not accurate in the deterministic sense but provide a measure of likelihood based on the current knowledge and data. The reliability of these results also depends on the quality of the underlying data and the correctness of the models used. Therefore, while they are a valuable tool, they should be interpreted with an understanding of their probabilistic nature and inherent uncertainties.

5. How do probabilistic calculations differ from deterministic calculations?

Probabilistic calculations differ from deterministic calculations in that they incorporate randomness and uncertainty into their models and results. Deterministic calculations provide a specific outcome based on fixed inputs without accounting for randomness. In contrast, probabilistic calculations acknowledge that in many real-world scenarios, the exact behavior of a system may not be predictable, and thus, they provide outcomes in terms of probabilities or ranges of possible outcomes.

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