Chernoff Bounds using importance sampling identity

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WMDhamnekar
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How to use importance sampling identity to obtain the Chernoff bounds as given below?

Let X have moment generating function ##\phi(t)= E[e^{tX}]##. Then, for any c > 0 ,

##P[X\geq c ]\leq e^{-tc} \phi(t), \text{if t > 0}##

##P[X \leq c]\leq e^{-tc}\phi(t), \text{if t<0} ##

Solution:
Here's an example of using the importance sampling identity to obtain Chernoff bounds for a binomial random variable.

Suppose we have a binomial random variable ##X \sim \text{Bin}(n,p)##, where n is the number of trials and p is the probability of success on each trial. We want to bound the probability that X deviates from its mean by more than a certain amount, i.e., we want to bound ##P(X \geq (1+\delta)np)## for some ##\delta > 0##.

Let ##X = \sum_{i=1}^n X_i##, where the ##X_i## are independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter p. Let ##Q_i## be a Bernoulli distribution with parameter q, and let ##Q = Q_1 \times \cdots \times Q_n##.

Then, by the importance sampling identity, we have ##P(X \geq (1+\delta)np) = E_Q\left[\prod_{i=1}^n \frac{dP_i}{dQ_i}I_{X \geq (1+\delta)np}\right]##

Now, let ##\phi_i(t) = E[e^{tX_i}] = 1 + p(e^t - 1)## and ##\psi_i(t) = E_Q[e^{tX_i}] = 1 + q(e^t - 1)##.

By choosing ##Q_i## such that ##\frac{dP_i}{dQ_i} = e^{tX_i - \log \phi_i(t)}##, we obtain ##P(X \geq (1+\delta)np) = E_Q\left[e^{tX - n\log \phi(t)}I_{X \geq (1+\delta)np}\right]##

Applying Markov's inequality, we get ##P(X \geq (1+\delta)np) \leq e^{-t(1+\delta)np}E_Q\left[e^{tX - n\log \phi(t)}\right] = e^{-t(1+\delta)np}\prod_{i=1}^n\psi_i(t)e^{-\log \phi_i(t)} = e^{-t(1+\delta)np}\left(\frac{1+q(e^t-1)}{1+p(e^t-1)}\right)^n##

This is the Chernoff bound for a binomial random variable. By choosing an appropriate value of t, we can obtain a tight bound on the tail probability.

In my opinion, this solution seems to look correct. Do you have any doubts? Let me know, so that I shall clear them.
 
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1. What is the importance sampling identity?

The importance sampling identity is a mathematical concept used in statistics and probability theory. It allows for the estimation of the expected value of a function using a different probability distribution than the one originally used. This is useful in situations where the original distribution is difficult to work with or does not accurately represent the data.

2. How does the Chernoff Bound relate to importance sampling?

The Chernoff Bound is a mathematical inequality used to bound the probability of a random variable being greater than a certain value. When using importance sampling, the Chernoff Bound can be used to estimate the probability of the function being greater than a certain value, providing a measure of the accuracy of the estimation.

3. What are the advantages of using Chernoff Bounds with importance sampling?

One advantage of using Chernoff Bounds with importance sampling is that it allows for the estimation of difficult or complex functions that may not have closed-form solutions. It also provides a measure of the accuracy of the estimation, allowing for the selection of the most appropriate probability distribution for sampling.

4. Are there any limitations to using Chernoff Bounds with importance sampling?

One limitation of using Chernoff Bounds with importance sampling is that it requires knowledge of the probability distribution of the function being estimated. If this distribution is unknown or difficult to determine, the accuracy of the estimation may be compromised. Additionally, the accuracy of the estimation may be affected by the choice of the importance sampling distribution.

5. How is the Chernoff Bound used in practical applications?

The Chernoff Bound using importance sampling identity has many practical applications in fields such as machine learning, finance, and risk analysis. It is commonly used in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the expected value of a function and to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation. It is also used in optimization problems to find the most efficient sampling distribution for estimating a function.

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