Clench your teeth against Sandy , USAns

[arildno]

Clench your teeth against "Sandy", USAns!

Knowing all about bad weather, I advise you to have your skis ready, in order to get to work.

 

[Borek]

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=647059

 

[arildno]

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=647059

OP in that thread is a USAn, and therefore doesn¨t count.
even though he is a Republican.

 

[Evo]

It appears Sandy may be another case of media overhype. If they would just be realistic. It's a strong storm, it will cause some wind damage and isolated flooding, but it's nowhere near what they made it out to be. It's always good to be prepared, but when the media goes crazy like this, the major damage is from the large number of people that will feel that they were lied to by the media and decide to ignore the next warning, which might be real.

I was watching interviews earlier of people in New York City that said they felt mislead last year about TS Irene, so chose to ignore the warnings. And, for NYC, they're not getting hit, again.

I know what this feels like, I lived in Houston, TX for 27 years.

 

[rootX]

It appears Sandy may be another case of media overhype. If they would just be realistic. It's a strong storm, it will cause some wind damage and isolated flooding, but it's nowhere near what they made it out to be. It's always good to be prepared, but when the media goes crazy like this, the major damage is from the large number of people that will feel that they were lied to by the media and decide to ignore the next warning, which might be real.

I was watching interviews earlier of people in New York City that said they felt mislead last year about TS Irene, so chose to ignore the warnings. And, for NYC, they're not getting hit, again.

I know what this feels like, I lived in Houston, TX for 27 years.

Obama seems to be mastermind behind all of this I don't mean he created the Sandy but just that he might have advantage by making Sandy a media overhype.

 

[Evo]

Obama seems to be mastermind behind all of this I don't mean he created the Sandy but just that he might have advantage by making Sandy a media overhype.

I would think it would hurt him, as he's strong in the NE.

Let's not go off topic.

 

[arildno]

It appears Sandy may be another case of media overhype. If they would just be realistic. It's a strong storm, it will cause some wind damage and isolated flooding, but it's nowhere near what they made it out to be. It's always good to be prepared, but when the media goes crazy like this, the major damage is from the large number of people that will feel that they were lied to by the media and decide to ignore the next warning, which might be real.

I was watching interviews earlier of people in New York City that said they felt mislead last year about TS Irene, so chose to ignore the warnings. And, for NYC, they're not getting hit, again.

I know what this feels like, I lived in Houston, TX for 27 years.

It's a question of balance between the virtue of caution and the vice of hysteria, isn't it?

 

[Evo]

It's a question of balance between the virtue of caution and the vice of hysteria, isn't it?

Yes, and the media blew up a weak hurricane into some mega killer storm of never before seen proportions and devastation. The over-reaction is reported have caused billions in financial losses due to needless business and airline shutdowns. Probably the billions in losses is also an exaggeration.

 

[arildno]

Yes, and the media blew up a weak hurricane into some mega killer storm of never before seen proportions and devastation. The over-reaction is reported have caused billions in financial losses due to needless business and airline shutdowns. Probably the billions in losses is also an exaggeration.

In Norway, we have the concept that the media is the Fourth Power of the State.
Not as a juridically recognized category (along with the executive, legislative and judiciary Powers), but as an unfortunate aspect of reality.
It is troubling that mere profitmakers can have the impact on so many lives, without any viable, existing process of how to hold them accountable for professional misdemeanors.

 

[Astronuc]

It's a question of balance between the virtue of caution and the vice of hysteria, isn't it?

Yes. The media hype just about any story in order to keep the audience. Then again it's not hype if one's home is flooded, or has a tree come down on it.

The government expresses caution.

In our area, Irene cause a substantial amount of damage. If more folks had been out and about, we likely would have had more fatalities. Since the path has uncertainty at any given time, the warnings/caution are given to a wide area - and people are expected to exercise caution. Then again, there are plenty of people who put themselves in harm's way, and then expect others to risk their safety to rescue them.

I'm listening to a roaring wind outside. I would not want to be on a road with other drivers at the moment.

 

[arildno]

Yes. The media hype just about any story in order to keep the audience. Then again it's not hype if one's home is flooded, or has a tree come down on it.

The government expresses caution.

In our area, Irene cause a substantial amount of damage. If more folks had been out and about, we likely would have had more fatalities. Since the path has uncertainty at any given time, the warnings/caution are given to a wide area - and people are expected to exercise caution. Then again, there are plenty of people who put themselves in harm's way, and then expect others to risk their safety to rescue them.

I'm listening to a roaring wind outside. I would not want to be on a road with other drivers at the moment.

I think Obama's official statement was characterized by rational caution and admirable clarity.
He said that those whose LOCAL officials told them to evacuate should do so (rather than some panicky general evacuation idea or reality-denying "it can't happen here").
Furthermore, he calmly observed that ratgher than the storm itself, the more longterm effects would be possible local power shortages, thus preparing people for that eventuality.
And lastly, prior to any actual question about it, he dismissed the relevance the storm "might" have on the election, by saying the "election takes care of itself".

"Sandy" is not an issue by which a statesman is recognized or shaped, unless he bungles it thoroughly.
Obama responded in the rational manner we should hope ALL politicians, regardless of personal ideologies ought to respond.

 

[Evo]

Yes. The media hype just about any story in order to keep the audience. Then again it's not hype if one's home is flooded, or has a tree come down on it.

The government expresses caution.

In our area, Irene cause a substantial amount of damage. If more folks had been out and about, we likely would have had more fatalities. Since the path has uncertainty at any given time, the warnings/caution are given to a wide area - and people are expected to exercise caution. Then again, there are plenty of people who put themselves in harm's way, and then expect others to risk their safety to rescue them.

I'm listening to a roaring wind outside. I would not want to be on a road with other drivers at the moment.

Well, that's to be expected from a cat 1 hurricane, but it's still only a cat 1 hurricane. As I said yesterday, the most flooding damage in Houston came from a small tropical storm that stalled over the city. Sandy isn't the mega killer storm of the century, it's a normal small hurricane. Of course I grew up with hurricanes, and since 1993 I have lived in the worst, most damaging super cell storms, most people can't even imagine. When I moved here, most of the area was under water from the horrendous midwest flood of 1993. Of course, I am the freak storm magnet.

I'm glad that Sandy turned out to not be the devastating storm they were hyping. Hopefully there won't be too much flooding from the storm surge for those on the shore.

 

[arildno]

If there is SOME positive effect of this media hype to be found, it is, I hope, that people have erred on the side of caution, so that loss of lives and physical injuries are avoided, although economy suffers a greater loss than a more rational approach would entail.
Profits can be regained, in contrast to lives.

 

[Jack21222]

I'm glad that Sandy turned out to not be the devastating storm they were hyping. Hopefully there won't be too much flooding from the storm surge for those on the shore.

Are you sure you don't want to take this back?

Building collapses, hospitals shut down, at least 16 dead, 6.5 million people without power, historic flooding in New York City...

Sounds to me like it was every bit as bad as they predicted.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

At least 50 flooded houses destroyed by NYC fire
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/30/sandy-new-york-fire-floods/1668029/

 

[Jack21222]

Early estimates project $20 billion in damage:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/hurricane-sandy-threatens-20-billion-in-u-s-economic-damage.html

 

[AlephZero]

Early estimates project $20 billion in damage:

Which is a LOT less than was caused by Katrina.

But it doesn't seem surprising to me that New York will holler louder than New Orleans.

 

[Andre]

I guess it needs some digging to substantiate points, but I think that Evo may have a point. At no point have I seen ever wind speeds exceeding 40 mph on the wind map, but I guess that there should be plenty of sources which could give the max wind speed over land. But it was not the wind but the water/flooding that appeared to have done just about all the damage, wasn't it?. Excessive precipitation combined with high tides due to the wind?

 

[russ_watters]

Max wind in my area was 36mph sustained, 58mph gusts at 10:00 last night: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPTW.html

It was the wind that did all of the damage here. No flooding to speak of in suburban Philly. At the shore, where there are fewer trees, it would have been all flooding.

 

[Astronuc]

the U.S. death toll from Superstorm Sandy climbed to 40, many of the victims killed by falling trees.
. . . .
A huge fire destroyed as many as [80-]100 houses in a flooded beachfront neighborhood in [Breezy Point] Queens on Tuesday, forcing firefighters to undertake daring rescues. Three people were injured.

http://news.yahoo.com/sandys-death-toll-climbs-millions-without-power-155442547--finance.html

CNN News and others report only 33 deaths.

http://news.yahoo.com/state-state-look-east-coast-superstorm-111025193.html

Hundreds of homes in NY and NJ are destroyed - either by fire or flood. Many NY City neighborhoods and towns may be without power for days or weeks.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/sandys-wake-grim-reality-residents-ferry-nj/story?id=17601647

http://abcnews.go.com/US/video/hurricane-sandy-jersey-beach-town-water-17602176

Two boys killed when a tree fell through the home where they were staying. The home is probably 120+ miles (200+ km) from the center of Sandy last night, and only about ~30 miles (48 km) from us.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/superstorm-sandy-deaths-ny-boys-killed-downed-tree/story?id=17600355

Stories of those who experienced the storm
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout...onster-residents-stories-storm-203210634.html

The storm system is still moving through PA and NY.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was located about 50 miles east-northeast of Pittsburgh, Pa. The system is moving to the west-northwest at about 10 mph. Various watches, warnings and advisories remain in effect from the Northeast coast to the Great Lakes.

It looks like the center is near Dubois, PA on its way to Rochester and Geneva, NY.

 

[Astronuc]

I guess it needs some digging to substantiate points, but I think that Evo may have a point. At no point have I seen ever wind speeds exceeding 40 mph on the wind map, but I guess that there should be plenty of sources which could give the max wind speed over land. But it was not the wind but the water/flooding that appeared to have done just about all the damage, wasn't it?. Excessive precipitation combined with high tides due to the wind?

The hurricane happened to hit the shore line in conjunction with normal high tide. The low pressure and high winds pushed the water higher.

A number of fatalities are from falling trees, which is due to wind. The highest winds are localized near the eye, but we also had high winds (gusts) up to 63 mph (100 kph) and we were about 160 miles (260 km) from the eye. In eastern (Groton) Connecticut, gusts were reported up to 76 mph.

 

[Jack21222]

Which is a LOT less than was caused by Katrina.

But it doesn't seem surprising to me that New York will holler louder than New Orleans.

It's about 20% of a Katrina.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

The meaning of the word hype is being mangled here. If they had predicted 2 inches of rain and called it a potential disaster, that would be hype. What actually happened was that they predicted 5-10 inches of rain with 12 inches in some locations. It is not hype to call that a potential disaster. The fact that only 2 inches actually fell means the prediction was incorrect, not that the reporting was hype. I don't know if the wind speed met expectations, but there are 8 trees toppled within 200 yards of my house. One of these knocked out power in my house and in all there are 1.2 million customers of my electric company without power and I don't know how many others from other electric companies. If they were off on the wind speed, they were not off on the prediction of potential disaster. The same goes for the storm surge. They were predicting that sea water might flood the NYC subway system. That actually did occur so the prediction was correct and the disaster did occur so there seems to be no cause for a charge of hype on that count. As for comparing the monetary loss to that of Katrina, you cannot ascribe any of that to hype since no prediction in that regard was made.

 

[Astronuc]

Early estimates project $20 billion in damage:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/hurricane-sandy-threatens-20-billion-in-u-s-economic-damage.html

or another estimate

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Superstorm Sandy will end up causing about $20 billion in property damages and $10 billion to $30 billion more in lost business, according to IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/storms-cost-may-hit-50b-174403023.html

Superstorm Sandy: Death Toll Up to 50, but Some Steps Toward Recovery
http://abcnews.go.com/US/superstorm-sandy-ravaged-states-steps-recovery/story?id=17594562

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Michael "heck of a job, Brownie", Brown has chimed in.

Brown said the president may have had a more positive effect had he waited until Sunday afternoon to address the storm instead of holding a press conference that morning.

Actually he's right. Storm experts pretty much agree that 1:15 pm is the best time for holding a press conference for a storm. Obama's gaffe was caused by the fact that he thought he was holding a press conference for a volcano which should indeed be held in the morning, preferably a Sunday morning. Photo ops should wait until after the storm is over, and according to Brown, preparedness should begin a week later if at all.
Yahoo News

 

[Bipolarity]

I live in downtown NYC and had to be evacuated. I hope power and water will be back on soon so I move back into my dorm.

If you go from downtown to midtown it is noticeable how rapidly everything changes since downtown is the badly affected region and midtown seems indifferent to the hurricane.

BiP

 

[Astronuc]

The community of Long Beach, Long Island (pop ~33,000) is uninhabitable - no water or no clean water (it's contaminated), no sewer service, and no electricity. A curfew is in place from 7 pm to 6 am. The mayor basically asked folks to leave until services can be restored.

http://www.longbeachny.org/

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/NY-s-Long-Island-begins-recovery-after-superstorm-3995082.php

Many communities in NY (principally on Long Island) and NJ are similarly affected.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/nyregion/new-jersey-continues-to-cope-with-hurricane-sandy.html

 

[arildno]

It seems to me that Evo was right to be frustrated about how the strength of the storm was "hyped", but since it did attack one of the densest populated areas in US, the fears of what it might do, was well-founded.

 

[AlephZero]

It's embarrassing when weather forecasters get it wrong the other way. An incident back in 1987 in the UK is still a national joke.

It was the worst storm to hit SE England since 1703 and killed at least 22 people, though nothing to compare with Sandy. The TV weather forecast that didn't predict it contained

Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

 

[lisab]

It's embarrassing when weather forecasters get it wrong the other way. An incident back in 1987 in the UK is still a national joke.

It was the worst storm to hit SE England since 1703 and killed at least 22 people, though nothing to compare with Sandy. The TV weather forecast that didn't predict it contained

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

In ~1990 there was a 'surprise' snow storm in Seattle. About 6" fell in a few hours. That's not much snow in a lot of places but here, it's horrific. We have very steep hills and only a handful of plows. It shut the place down for 3 days!

 

[russ_watters]

The meaning of the word hype is being mangled here.

I've used the word and I have to admit you're right. If we had gotten 8 inches of rain, like was in the middle of the range, it would have been much worse.

 

[Astronuc]

Factbox: Storm Sandy blamed for at least 97 deaths in U.S., Canada (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/02/us-storm-sandy-deaths-idUSBRE89U1FJ20121102

The death toll may yet increase as authorities search various communities.

Sobering and somber stories in the NY Times (and why folks should stay put, prefereably in sturdy homes or away from large trees, and not go out in the storm)
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/nyregion/hurricane-sandys-lethal-power-in-many-ways.html

I don't think the strength of the storm was exaggerated. While not a Cat 5, but only a Cat 1, the flooding and winds were devastating to many communities. The storm surge coincided with high tide, which is one reason the flooding was so bad. If it had been at low tide, many places may not have flooded, or the flooding wouldn't have been so bad.

 

[mheslep]

The hurricane happened to hit the shore line in conjunction with normal high tide. ...

A bit higher than normal. The moon was full.