Expectation of amount of money won in a game

In summary, the conversation discusses the calculation of the expected value for the amount of money received when throwing ##n## dice and receiving ##\frac{1}{2}## of the number of sixes that occur. The expected value is calculated as ##\frac{1}{12}n## using the random variable Z. A different approach is also presented using the probability distribution table, which leads to the same result. The equivalence of throwing all the dice at once or one after the other is explained by the fact that both experiments involve ##n## independent dice.
  • #1
songoku
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Homework Statement
A man throws ##n## dice and will receive $ ##\frac{1}{2}x## where ##x## is number of sixes occurred (##x=0,1,2,...,n##). Prove that the expectation of the amount receives is $ ##\frac{1}{12}n##
Relevant Equations
Linear Combination of Random Variable: E(aX) = a.E(X)

Binomial Distribution: X ~ B (n, p)

Expectation of Binomial Distribution = np
This is what I did:

Let Y = number of sixes occurred when ##n## dice are thrown

Y ~ B (n, 1/6)

E(Y) = ##\frac{1}{6}n##Let Z = amount of money received → Z = ##\frac{1}{2}Y##

E(Z) = E(1/2 Y) = 1/2 E(Y) = ##\frac{1}{12}n##I got the answer but I am not sure about my working because I didn't take the amount of money into account (whether the man receives $0.5 or $1 or $1.5 , etc)

Is my working correct? Thanks
 
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  • #2
It seems to me your working is correct. You took into account the amount of money received in an implicit way by using the random variable Z.
 
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  • #3
Delta2 said:
It seems to me your working is correct. You took into account the amount of money received in an implicit way by using the random variable Z.
Actually I am more confident if I use probability distribution table to calculate the expectation, but I just can't solve it

This is what I tried:
For Z = 0 → P(Z = 0) = ##\binom n 0 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^0 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^n##

For Z = 0.5 → P(Z = 0.5) = ##\binom n 1 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^1 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-1}##

For Z = 1 → P(Z = 1) = ##\binom n 2 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^2 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-2}##
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For Z = ##\frac n 2## → P(Z = n) = ##\binom n n \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^n \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^0##Expectation
$$=0 \times \binom n 0 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^0 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^n + 0.5 \times \binom n 1 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^1 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-1} + 1 \times \binom n 2 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^2 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-2} + ... + \frac{n}{2} \times \binom n n \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^n \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^0$$
$$=\sum_{r=1}^n \frac{r}{2}\binom n r \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^r \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-r}$$

Is this correct? If yes, how to prove that the sum will be ##\frac{1}{12}n##?

Thanks
 
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  • #4
This should be in your textbook notes on how to calculate the expectation value of a variable that follows the binomial distribution. That sum is the expectation value of binomial with the factor 1/2 in front of it.

Now that I think of it I should be able to calculate that sum but I can't at the moment, I am stuck as you :D.
 
  • #5
Or, simply: the expected return on each die is $0.50/6. He throws ##n## dice, so the expected return is $0.50n/6 = $n/12.
 
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  • #6
PS a way of seeing that this is valid is to imagine throwing the ##n## dice one after the other; rather than all at the same time. Then, taking the expected gain after ##n## consecutive throws.

The expected gain for ##n## consecutive throws must be $n/12; and, it must be the same as throwing all the dice at the same time.
 
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  • #7
PeroK said:
The expected gain for n consecutive throws must be $n/12; and, it must be the same as throwing all the dice at the same time.
That was something that was troubling me, if the two experiments are equivalent from a probabilistic point of view. Why are they if I may ask?
 
  • #8
Delta2 said:
That was something that was troubling me, if the two experiments are equivalent from a probabilistic point of view. Why are they if I may ask?
In both cases there are ##n## independent dice.
 
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  • #9
Thank you very much for all the help and explanation Delta2 and PeroK
 
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1. What is the "expectation" of amount of money won in a game?

The expectation of amount of money won in a game is a statistical concept that represents the average amount of money a player can expect to win or lose over a large number of games. It takes into account the probabilities of winning and losing, as well as the amount of money that can be won or lost in each game.

2. How is the expectation of amount of money won calculated?

The expectation of amount of money won is calculated by multiplying the probability of winning by the amount that can be won, and then subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount that can be lost. This formula can be written as E(X) = P(win) * amount won - P(lose) * amount lost.

3. Can the expectation of amount of money won guarantee a profit?

No, the expectation of amount of money won cannot guarantee a profit. It is simply a theoretical average over a large number of games and does not take into account short-term fluctuations or individual luck. A player may still end up winning or losing more than the expected amount in any given game.

4. How does the expectation of amount of money won differ from the actual amount won?

The expectation of amount of money won is a theoretical concept, while the actual amount won is the real amount of money won in a specific game. The expectation takes into account all possible outcomes and their probabilities, while the actual amount won is determined by the specific outcome of a single game.

5. How does the expectation of amount of money won affect decision-making in a game?

The expectation of amount of money won can help players make informed decisions in a game by providing a general idea of the potential outcomes. However, it should not be the sole factor in decision-making as luck and other variables can also play a role in the actual outcome of a game.

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