How to calculate the probability of winning top prize of lottery?

In summary, the conversation discusses the probability of winning a top prize in a lottery where six numbers are randomly drawn from a set of 1-36 numbers without replacement. The order of the numbers does not matter for a win. One proposed calculation is 1/36 * 1/35 * 1/34 * 1/33 * 1/32 * 1/31, but this does not account for order not mattering. Another calculation takes into account the 720 possible ways to reorder the numbers and gives a probability of 5.134*10^-7.
  • #1
kenny1999
235
4
Just take a simple example, Among 1-36 numbers, 6 balls are randomly drawn without putting back the ball. Only if you match the six numbers exactly you win the top prize, order doesn't matter.

I think it should be 1/36 * 1/35 * 1/34 * 1/33 * 1/32 * 1/31, is it?

[Moderator's note: moved from a technical forum.]
 
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  • #2
You have not accounted for "order doesn't matter". In your calculation, the order does matter. There are 6*5*4*3*2*1 = 720 ways to reorder what was drawn. To factor that in, multiply your answer by 720.
Another way to look at it is this:
The first draw would be a success if you got any of the 6 numbers: 6/36.
The second draw would be a success if you got any of the remaining 5 numbers: 5/35.
.
.
.
The last draw would be a success if you got the one remaining number: 1/31.
That gives the answer: 6/36 * 5/35 * 4/34 * 3/33 * 2/32 * 1/31 = 5.134##*10^{-7}##
 
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1. How do I calculate the probability of winning the top prize of a lottery?

The probability of winning the top prize of a lottery can be calculated by dividing the number of possible winning combinations by the total number of combinations. For example, if a lottery has a total of 10 numbers and players must choose 5 numbers to win the top prize, the probability would be 1 in 252, which is calculated as (10 choose 5) / (10 choose 5 + 5 choose 5).

2. What factors affect the probability of winning the top prize of a lottery?

The main factor that affects the probability of winning the top prize of a lottery is the number of possible winning combinations. The more numbers or symbols that a player must match to win, the lower the probability becomes. Other factors that may affect the probability include the total number of players, the frequency of drawings, and the rules of the specific lottery game.

3. Is there a way to increase my chances of winning the top prize of a lottery?

Unfortunately, there is no guaranteed way to increase your chances of winning the top prize of a lottery. The probability of winning is purely based on mathematical calculations and cannot be altered. However, some players may choose to purchase multiple tickets or join lottery pools to increase their chances of winning.

4. What is the difference between odds and probability in a lottery?

Odds and probability are often used interchangeably, but they have different meanings in the context of a lottery. Probability refers to the likelihood of an event occurring, while odds refer to the ratio of the probability of an event occurring to the probability of it not occurring. For example, if the probability of winning the top prize of a lottery is 1 in 10, the odds would be 1:9.

5. Can I use past winning numbers to calculate the probability of winning the top prize of a lottery?

No, using past winning numbers to calculate the probability of winning the top prize of a lottery is not an accurate method. Each drawing is completely random and independent from previous drawings, so past winning numbers have no influence on future drawings. The only way to accurately calculate the probability is by using the number of possible winning combinations and the total number of combinations.

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