If you have a 1/3 chance of winning one round and you play 7 rounds.

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In summary, the first problem involves calculating the odds of winning 4 out of 7 rounds with a 1/3 chance of winning each round, while the second problem involves using the Coupon Collector's Problem to find the odds of having a person with a birthday on each day in a school with 400 kids and 365 days in a year.
  • #1
physicswinner
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If you have a 1/3 chance of winning one round and you play 7 rounds. What are the odds you win 4/7 rounds? me and my friends are having a hard time with this question and also i would like to know how you solved it.
Also i'd like to know if a school had 400 kids and there is 365 days in a year. what are the odds of having a persons birthday on each day.
Thanks!
 
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  • #2
You'd have to calculate the odds for one of the possible permutations, such as winning on the first 4 rounds and losing on the last 3, then multiply this by the number of permutations of 7 things taken 4 at a time. You could grind out all the probabilities for all the scenarios, 0 wins to 7 wins, in which case the sum of all those probabilities should exactly equal 1.

The second problem with birthdays is similar, but the numbers involved are much larger. One permuation is the first person has a birthday on any day (365/365), the second on a different day than the first (364/365), the third different than the first two (363/365), ... There may be a mathematical trick to simplify the calculations.
 
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  • #3
physicswinner said:
If you have a 1/3 chance of winning one round and you play 7 rounds. What are the odds you win 4/7 rounds? me and my friends are having a hard time with this question and also i would like to know how you solved it.
Also i'd like to know if a school had 400 kids and there is 365 days in a year. what are the odds of having a persons birthday on each day.
Thanks!
The second problem is a version of the "Coupon Collector's Problem". The problem is usually stated in terms of the number of samples required to get a complete set of coupons. In your case, the coupons correspond to the days of the year and the kids are the samples. Here is the statement of the solution, in terms of coupons.

N = the number of different types of coupons
T = the number of coupons that need to be collected to obtain a complete set

[tex]\Pr(T > n) = \sum_{i=1}^{N-1} \binom{N}{i} \left( \frac{N-i}{N} \right) ^n (-1)^{i+1}[/tex]

Source: A First Course in Probability, Seventh Ediiton, by Sheldon Ross, Section 4.1, Example 1e

I think the previous poster confused your question with the Birthday Problem, which is different (what is the probability that two kids have the same birthday?).
 

1. What is the probability of winning at least one round if you play 7 rounds?

The probability of winning at least one round if you play 7 rounds is approximately 95.5%. This can be calculated by subtracting the probability of losing all 7 rounds (2/3)^7 = 0.007 from 1.

2. What is the probability of winning all 7 rounds?

The probability of winning all 7 rounds is approximately 0.007%. This can be calculated by multiplying the probability of winning one round (1/3) by itself 7 times.

3. How many rounds should you play to have a 50% chance of winning at least one round?

You would need to play 4 rounds to have a 50% chance of winning at least one round. This can be calculated by finding the number of rounds where the probability of losing all rounds is equal to 50%, which is when (2/3)^n = 0.5.

4. What is the expected number of rounds you will win?

The expected number of rounds you will win is approximately 2.33 rounds. This can be calculated by multiplying the number of rounds (7) by the probability of winning one round (1/3).

5. Is it possible to guarantee a win by playing a certain number of rounds?

No, it is not possible to guarantee a win by playing a certain number of rounds. The probability of winning each round is independent of previous rounds, so playing more rounds does not increase the chances of winning. However, the more rounds you play, the higher the probability of winning at least one round becomes.

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