How Does the IPCC Determine Confidence Levels in Climate Projections?

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In summary, the IPCC uses a variety of methods, including literature review, expert judgment, and statistical analysis, to determine confidence levels in their projections. Key resources to consult include the Fifth Assessment Report, Technical Summary, and Guidance Notes for Lead Authors.
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Would someone please be able to point me towards the literature that discusses how the IPCC calculate the low, medium and high confidence projections as used in their fifth assessment report? Thanks.
 
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https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf
 
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Sure, I can help with that! The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) uses a range of methods to determine the level of confidence in their projections. This includes a thorough review of the available scientific literature, expert judgment from a diverse range of scientists, and statistical analysis.

One key document to consult would be the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), specifically the Working Group I report on the Physical Science Basis. Chapter 12, titled "Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility," discusses the methods and approaches used by the IPCC to assess confidence in their projections.

Additionally, the IPCC has published a Technical Summary, which provides a more detailed explanation of the methods and data used in their projections. This can be found on the IPCC website along with the full AR5 report.

Other helpful resources include the IPCC's Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties and the IPCC's Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Assessing the Robustness of Climate Projections.

I hope this helps point you in the right direction! Let me know if you have any other questions.
 

1. What is the IPCC and what are their confidence projections?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific organization established by the United Nations to provide policymakers with unbiased information about the state of climate change. Confidence projections refer to the level of certainty scientists have in their predictions about future climate change.

2. How are IPCC confidence projections determined?

IPCC confidence projections are determined through a process called expert elicitation, where scientists with expertise in various fields related to climate change assess and evaluate the available evidence and make judgments on the level of confidence in the projections.

3. What factors are considered when determining IPCC confidence projections?

IPCC confidence projections take into account a range of factors, including the quality and quantity of available data, the level of agreement among different models and observations, and the level of understanding of underlying physical processes.

4. How reliable are IPCC confidence projections?

IPCC confidence projections are considered to be highly reliable, as they are based on the best available scientific evidence and expert judgment. However, it is important to note that projections are not perfect and can change as new data and understanding become available.

5. How can IPCC confidence projections be used in policymaking?

IPCC confidence projections can be used by policymakers to inform decisions related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. These projections are meant to provide a range of possible future scenarios, which can help policymakers prepare for potential impacts and make informed decisions about mitigating and adapting to climate change.

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