Is an answer possible - Conditional Probability

In summary: They all represent the probability of events a, b, and c all occurring together. In summary, the conversation discusses the calculation of p(c|ab) using the given values and the meaning of p(abc) in literary terms. The speaker also created a tree diagram and inquired about finding a range of probabilities and representing the tree chart in a Venn diagram. They also asked about the difference between different notations for the probability of events occurring together.
  • #1
Manasan3010
38
3
Homework Statement
p(a)=0.75
p(b|a)=0.9
p(b|a')=0.8
p(c|a'b)=0.7
p(c|a'b')=0.3
p(c|ab')=0.6
(These are the only data I was given)
Find p(abc)?
Relevant Equations
p(abc) = p(a)p(b|a)p(c|ab)
I am a noob to this topic so correct me If I made any silly mistake. By plugging in the values I managed to get

p(abc)=0.75*0.9*p(c|ab)
Here How can I find p(c|ab)? Is this question unsolvable or can I derive it?
I also want to know what is meant by p(abc) in literary terms.

I also created a Tree Diagram for the question(Correct me if there is any mistake)
1564233367168.png
 
Last edited:
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  • #2
Your tree looks right.

I think you don't have enough information in the problem statement to produce an singular answer. You could provide a range of probabilities, though.

"p(abc)" = P(a, b, c) = is a notation for the probablity of a and b and c happening.
 
  • #3
lewando said:
I think you don't have enough information in the problem statement to produce an singular answer. You could provide a range of probabilities, though.

"p(abc)" = P(a, b, c) = is a notation for the probability of a and b and c happening.
How can I get a range of probabilities? (My guess is From 0 to 0.675, How can I represent this range Symbolically?)
How can I represent the above tree chart in a venn diagram?
Are there any difference between p(abc), p(a and b and c), p(a∩b∩c )

THANK YOU
 
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  • #4
Manasan3010 said:
How can I get a range of probabilities? (My guess is From 0 to 0.675, How can I represent this range Symbolically?)
Your guess is right, but why guess? You should be able to rationalize this.
How about: 0.675 >= p(abc) >= 0
How can I represent the above tree chart in a venn diagram?
Have you tried researching "3-event Venn diagrams"? There are plenty of examples (3 overlapping circles in a rectangular sample space) "out there". The sample space will consist of 8 non-overlapping regions. These correspond to the 8 "endpoints" of your tree.
Are there any difference between p(abc), p(a and b and c), p(a∩b∩c )
No.
 
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1. What is conditional probability?

Conditional probability is the measure of the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is calculated by dividing the probability of the joint occurrence of both events by the probability of the first event.

2. How is conditional probability different from regular probability?

Regular probability considers the likelihood of an event occurring without any prior knowledge or conditions. Conditional probability takes into account the additional information that an event has already occurred, which can change the probability of the desired outcome.

3. Can you provide an example of conditional probability?

One example of conditional probability is the likelihood of flipping two coins and getting a heads on the second coin given that the first coin landed on heads. The probability of getting heads on the first coin is 1/2, and the probability of getting heads on the second coin is also 1/2. However, the probability of getting heads on the second coin given that the first coin landed on heads is 1/2, as the outcome of the first coin flip does not affect the second coin flip.

4. How is conditional probability used in real-life situations?

Conditional probability is used in many real-life situations, such as weather forecasting, medical diagnoses, and insurance risk assessments. It allows us to calculate the likelihood of an event occurring given certain conditions, which can be valuable in decision making and risk management.

5. What is the relationship between conditional probability and independence?

If two events are independent, then the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other event. In this case, the conditional probability of the second event given the first event is the same as the probability of the second event. However, if the events are dependent, then the conditional probability of the second event may be different from the probability of the second event on its own.

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