On asteroids and impact events

[RetailPleb]

1. Which organization or group of organizations is it the responsibility of to detect and track worrisome asteroids? I believe NASA and the USAF track such bodies if I'm not mistaken, but how many others are there? Who is "best" at it, or most relied-upon for spotting and cataloging them?
2. About how much warning in advance might we have of an impact large enough to be called a regional/global emergency? Could an asteroid give us as little as a month to notice it, or would something of that size be relatively easy to detect, even from a great distance?
3. Can you refer me any books, articles, or even YouTube videos that deals with the subject of asteroid impacts, such as: how the size affects the damage caused, aftermath and social/ecological impacts, etc.

Thanks in advance for your help and taking the time to read this!

 

[BillTre]

I recently saw a Nova show on this on (PBS) TV last week.
I think it was Meteor Strike (2013). Google searchs show DVs for $10-20.

They followed an investigation of the meteor that blew up over Russia. Traced it back it is origin.
They then interviewed people investigating:

• the source of meteors
• how to better detect them
• how deal with them if necessary (ways to move them vs. blow them up).

Detection involved increasingly better optic detection (increasingly satellites, I think) and computational tracking of ever more and ever smaller objects. They also identified some optical limitations (sun glare, low reflectivity, as I recall).
What the wanted at the IR seeing telescope on a satillite to scan for meteors.
Too bad I don't remember the names of all the different satillites. However, it could be googled.
As I recall its purported advantages include:

• Does not require reflectance to be IR visible if warmer than background.
• Not affected by optical glare (or mavbe just less).

I don't know that I got to see the whole thing (due to ungoing domestic events), so I may be missing details.
I don't know the names of everything, its a nice video.
That was as of 2013, so things have probably changed since then.

Someone else here probably knows that.

 

[Vanadium 50]

regional/global emergency

We can't tell, since a regional emergency depends on the region (obviously). Chelyabinsk broke some windows. Had it hit in Tokyo or Delhi, millions would have died.

 

[jim mcnamara]

The term used often is Near Earth Object (NEO) - NASA has a NEO object database which shows which object will be close to Earth when - since there is a large number of known NEOs:
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/Lets you select the ones that will visit in the next few months.

This DB mostly has larger objects, small ones, like the size of a school bus are harder to detect,

It also has a taskbar of selections with lots of information: detection, mitigation, "defense", etc. Consider taking a look. The who question was answered well by @Vanadium 50 --- Many agencies. NASA and the EU (ESA) have the most "horsepower", i.e., resources. Since detection, tracking, and mitigation is in everyone's best interest, agencies share data.

 

[HankDorsett]

1. Which organization or group of organizations is it the responsibility of to detect and track worrisome asteroids? I believe NASA and the USAF track such bodies if I'm not mistaken, but how many others are there? Who is "best" at it, or most relied-upon for spotting and cataloging them?
2. About how much warning in advance might we have of an impact large enough to be called a regional/global emergency? Could an asteroid give us as little as a month to notice it, or would something of that size be relatively easy to detect, even from a great distance?
3. Can you refer me any books, articles, or even YouTube videos that deals with the subject of asteroid impacts, such as: how the size affects the damage caused, aftermath and social/ecological impacts, etc.

Thanks in advance for your help and taking the time to read this!

Based off of an older documentary. the u.s. Air Force is responsible for tracking space junk and any near-earth object that can interfere with satellites as well as the Space Station.

1. Which organization or group of organizations is it the responsibility of to detect and track worrisome asteroids? I believe NASA and the USAF track such bodies if I'm not mistaken, but how many others are there? Who is "best" at it, or most relied-upon for spotting and cataloging them?
2. About how much warning in advance might we have of an impact large enough to be called a regional/global emergency? Could an asteroid give us as little as a month to notice it, or would something of that size be relatively easy to detect, even from a great distance?
3. Can you refer me any books, articles, or even YouTube videos that deals with the subject of asteroid impacts, such as: how the size affects the damage caused, aftermath and social/ecological impacts, etc.

Thanks in advance for your help and taking the time to read this!

I'm basing this off of and older documentary. The US Air Force Under the Department of Defense strategic command was responsible for monitoring space junk and other near-earth objects. now for a bit of assumption. Known distant asteroids are monitored by the science community. as soon as its orbit brings it into range of a telescope they will recalculate its trajectory. Now for what I consider worrisome asteroids. Every so often we get a surprise flyby from an unknown asteroid. There are a few factors that determine how soon we can see it but unfortunately some of these are detected at the last minute.

 

[mfb]

We can't tell, since a regional emergency depends on the region (obviously). Chelyabinsk broke some windows. Had it hit in Tokyo or Delhi, millions would have died.

It would have shattered millions of windows but not caused millions of deaths. There are zero reported deaths from the meteor - despite Chelyabinsk's population of 1 million.

@RetailPleb: Here is a breakdown of near-Earth asteroid discoveries by program - as you can see many different programs contribute. Currently Catalina and Pan-STARRS find most new objects. Gaia should add some with its final release, ATLAS focuses on detecting smaller objects days to weeks before their impact or close fly-by: It doesn't find that many, but the objects it finds are much more likely to be a threat.

 

[Nik_2213]

IMHO, SpaceWeather is a fair portal for such.
http://spaceweather.com/
There's a convenient display of fireballs, a list of 'upcoming events', links to further info on 'Potentially Hazardous Asteroids' etc.
YMMV.

 

[BillTre]

Here is a Science mag News article on a satellite to find potentially Earth impacting object larger than 140 m diameter.

The Near-Earth Object Surveillance Mission, which will cost $500 million to $600 million, grows out of long-gestating plans for the Near-Earth Object Camera (NEOCam), first proposed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) in Pasadena, California, nearly 15 years ago.

It will look for objects in IR which can reveal them in situations where visible light telescopes may not see them.

 

[stefan r]

The term used often is Near Earth Object (NEO) - NASA has a NEO object database which shows which object will be close to Earth when - since there is a large number of known NEOs:...

That is only the Near Earth Objects. Interstellar objects and Oort cloud objects will not be in that database.

An object with no comet tail enters the solar system makes a flyby past the Sun and approaches Earth from the daylight region of the sky. If the object actually transited the Sun it would be noticed quickly. I think SOHO records images out to 30 solar radii. A large number of comets seen by SOHO were discovered by amateurs. I am not sure what sort of timeline that gives us. I think there is a blind spot between 15 and 25 or 30 degrees. Is there anything looking that way? It is all hazy so something very interesting has to be happening for a telescope to be aimed there.

An object falling down into the solar system from either north or south should be observable but there is a fairly high chance that no one will. A comet with a large coma should be detected. A big rock could get quite close. When it is detected someone will just mark the location and sit on that information. Something coming right at us will not move much and so it will not look very interesting. In order to cause alarm they need to measure the rate the angle is changing and also the fact that the angle is changing faster.

An interstellar object entering the solar system retrograde and flying at Earth will not appear to be moving all that much even though we are closing in extremely quickly.

 

[mfb]

I think SOHO records images out to 30 solar radii.

But how large does an object has to be in order to be visible to SOHO?

If something from the outer Solar System or interstellar space approaches us from a bad angle then we might see it really late.