- #1
Czcibor
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2 years ago Astronuc created a thread concerning EU refugee crisis but it does not seem attract much attention. In the meantime the situation deteriorated:
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/eu-and-refugee-crises.725935/A few nice graphs with statistics:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-how-they-are-getting-to-europe-10482415.html
So there is an awkward question what to do with the problem. There is one very big perverse incentive that is not mentioned openly - if a person stays in his awful country, then not many people in Europe care much. Sure, some minor humanitarian aid would be sent from time to time, to calm down conscience, but not much more. It would be perceived as additional help, and if it not work, then well - not our problem. However, if the same person arrives to an European country, then well... should be taken care off. Thus it seems that such people are being invited to Europe.
Solution I - take more refugees. In my language they would be called as literally "cuckoo egg", which more or less should be translated as "hot potato". So idea is to move those refugees somewhere else.
-in East Europe the refugee crisis is a urgent and serious problem as... Russian imperialism from Austrian perspective (I'm curious whether someone already offered Austrians/Germans taking refugees on condition of moving military bases east ;) )
-Unless we're supposed to keep those refugees in detention camps, no one specified how shall we prevent them escaping to Germany though open borders.
Also this idea do not specify what shall be done in case of such success would attract even more refugees to Europe.
Solution II - send army and stabilize those failed states. Not officially discussed. There would be a serious problem of huge expenses and flag wrapped coffins coming back home. Plus an epic level challenge of nation building, which was faced by Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If that wasn't enough, then as said Dotini:
Solution III - revival of nationalism. So far EU enfant terrible, Viktor Orbán (Hungarian prime minister) started in hurry putting barbed wire on his border. He was mumbling also something about not wanting Muslim and mentioning prior Osman Empire occupation of his country. Judging from setting fire to a few refugee camps in Germany he is not the only person who thinks in that way, just lack of PC in his country let to top politician to speak his own mind.
There is one more thing that is not being mentioned, or if mentioned being described as some irrational racism among bottom strata of society. Not so irrational. In case of any riots/crime increase, they would be hit, so left wing leaning elites would make them a sermon concerning tolerance, while staying in good parts of cities. Also in case of all goodies provided by safety net, discovering that there are plenty of competitors who deserve them more is not so encouraging.
There is also a not mentioned problem of ideology reducing effectiveness of state apparatus of repression. It is considered so nice, however... Let's think about the problem of Romanian Roma (Gypsies). It would be highly racist to let all Romanians in, except them. Highly racist and so on, guaranteed ruling by European Court of Justice. But if one just not let any Romanians... Exactly... Romania had problems to join Schengen Zone exactly because of that, and it was highly improper to mention what's exactly the problem.
This problem is seen by masses. So actually they start discussing merits of even more draconian policies, that would be necessary just to keep authoritarian-leaning order.
OK, so my guess is that we would use Solution I for a while. Unless a miracle in the Middle East happen, we would reach a turning point during which masses would be vivid enough to support Solution III. Not nice perspective, but seems for me the most likely, based on contemporary trends.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/eu-and-refugee-crises.725935/A few nice graphs with statistics:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-how-they-are-getting-to-europe-10482415.html
So there is an awkward question what to do with the problem. There is one very big perverse incentive that is not mentioned openly - if a person stays in his awful country, then not many people in Europe care much. Sure, some minor humanitarian aid would be sent from time to time, to calm down conscience, but not much more. It would be perceived as additional help, and if it not work, then well - not our problem. However, if the same person arrives to an European country, then well... should be taken care off. Thus it seems that such people are being invited to Europe.
Solution I - take more refugees. In my language they would be called as literally "cuckoo egg", which more or less should be translated as "hot potato". So idea is to move those refugees somewhere else.
There is idea of to split those refugees among countries based on some population /GDP. Austria was especially vocal about this subject. There are however some minor flaws in this idea:Dotini said:In terms of humanitarian relief for the refugees, it is interesting that Chancellor Merkel is taking in 800,000/yr, but other Euro states are in great disagreement as to what to do.
-in East Europe the refugee crisis is a urgent and serious problem as... Russian imperialism from Austrian perspective (I'm curious whether someone already offered Austrians/Germans taking refugees on condition of moving military bases east ;) )
-Unless we're supposed to keep those refugees in detention camps, no one specified how shall we prevent them escaping to Germany though open borders.
Also this idea do not specify what shall be done in case of such success would attract even more refugees to Europe.
Solution II - send army and stabilize those failed states. Not officially discussed. There would be a serious problem of huge expenses and flag wrapped coffins coming back home. Plus an epic level challenge of nation building, which was faced by Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If that wasn't enough, then as said Dotini:
The same crisis, from the moment you sent army, would be treated as your fault and responsibility. Thus you would expected to take refugees. So better keep it as not your problem.Dotini said:IMO, the US and the UK should be morally obliged to take the most of them. As of today, I believe the US takes in 1000 Syrians/yr out of a total refugee intake of 60,000/yr.
Solution III - revival of nationalism. So far EU enfant terrible, Viktor Orbán (Hungarian prime minister) started in hurry putting barbed wire on his border. He was mumbling also something about not wanting Muslim and mentioning prior Osman Empire occupation of his country. Judging from setting fire to a few refugee camps in Germany he is not the only person who thinks in that way, just lack of PC in his country let to top politician to speak his own mind.
Best for whom? Because such people would be a terrible resource drain for first few years. Security threat. And so far Muslims don't integrate well in Western societies, so presumably would be also a resource drain for a few generations. (also indirect one as in democratic process, judging from the outlook of Muslim states, they would rather not support parties preoccupied with good governance, and more supporting parties who would just promise them goodies. Sure, we already have plenty of such local people, but it would move the balance in undesired direction)HossamCFD said:It's not clear if that's possible at all at this point. May be Syria doesn't have a future. May be the best thing to do is to just accept as many refugees as possible.
There is one more thing that is not being mentioned, or if mentioned being described as some irrational racism among bottom strata of society. Not so irrational. In case of any riots/crime increase, they would be hit, so left wing leaning elites would make them a sermon concerning tolerance, while staying in good parts of cities. Also in case of all goodies provided by safety net, discovering that there are plenty of competitors who deserve them more is not so encouraging.
There is also a not mentioned problem of ideology reducing effectiveness of state apparatus of repression. It is considered so nice, however... Let's think about the problem of Romanian Roma (Gypsies). It would be highly racist to let all Romanians in, except them. Highly racist and so on, guaranteed ruling by European Court of Justice. But if one just not let any Romanians... Exactly... Romania had problems to join Schengen Zone exactly because of that, and it was highly improper to mention what's exactly the problem.
This problem is seen by masses. So actually they start discussing merits of even more draconian policies, that would be necessary just to keep authoritarian-leaning order.
OK, so my guess is that we would use Solution I for a while. Unless a miracle in the Middle East happen, we would reach a turning point during which masses would be vivid enough to support Solution III. Not nice perspective, but seems for me the most likely, based on contemporary trends.