I saw this awhile ago, and always meant to ask about it but kept forgetting.

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The discussion revolves around solving a probability problem related to the Chicago Bears' chances of winning games. The original poster initially calculated the probability of the Bears winning four games incorrectly, thinking it was 20% for each game. Participants clarify that the correct approach involves using the complement rule, where the probability of the Bears winning at least one game is calculated as 1 minus the probability of losing all four games. The correct calculation shows that the Bears win at least one game with a probability of 1 - 0.8^4. This highlights the importance of understanding complementary probabilities in solving such math problems.
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Anyways I always thought this story was cute, but I was wondering how you would solve the math problem? http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...rles-tillman-does-not-pro-163415977--nfl.html I thought it would be 20% for all four games and then .16 percent for each game, but I guess that's wrong. Some people are saying you would do a 1 minus the probability which I don't understand at all, so anyone who wants to take the time to explain it to me I'd appreciate it. Oh thanks in advance, and also this isn't a homework problem, well it is but it's not my homework problem.
 
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(my answer was wrong.)
 
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The Bears win one game with probability .2 so they win 4 games with probability .2^4=.2*.2*.2*.2=.0016

When no that the Packers win all four games is the opposite of the Bears win at least one game, the probability of the opposite is q=1-p. The Bears win at least one game with probability 1-.8^4
 

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