8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[SixNein]

What would that have done? The EDG's would still have been obliterated, and the reactors would still be in the same situation as a direct result of that obliteration.

At the very least, it would have allowed people to monitor exposure. If the government says that there is no threat, people can validate the government.

 

[Astronuc]

But it goes back to my point about providing data sets. The nuclear industry needs to do something like the geological community has done with seismographs. Setup dedicated 24/7 online data-sets providing information.

Definitely TEPCO needed to do a better job. Then again, the people who would provide the data were probably concerned about their families, then dealing with multiple unexpected failures at the plant. The folks back at corporate probably had faith that the plant staff would get things quickly under control.

And things got out of hand. The plant was in Beyond Design Basis space. Going by the book doesn't necessarily work - because the folks who wrote those plans didn't expect failures of the EDGs and other systems.

The Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) will need review and revision.

The Site Characteristics and Design will need revision - but we can perhaps expect that Units 1, 2 and 3 will be mothballed, then at some point decommissioned. Unit 4 is also at risk. Units 5 and 6 might be salvaged - if the site isn't too contaminated.

 

[SixNein]

Here is the best source I've found on radiation there...

http://www.bousai.ne.jp/eng/

 

[jreelawg]

Ugh... that's... genuinely depressing.

@Angry: I agree, I can't see these dinks agreeing on a single 'fact' for more than 10 minutes. The downside is that this is causing distrust in Japan, where people really need to be trusting their government.

People in japan are going through a lot right now, and the whole situation is a logistical nightmare. The last thing they need is additional mass panic. And I get the feeling people in Japan are extra fearful of radiation, given their history, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

At first the situation was just shocking. When I heard the most recent news today, it finally started to sink in, and depressing is a good word.

Hope your friend is safe. Congratulations on becoming a gold member.

 

[Astronuc]

The earthquake swarm continues. Notice the more recent quakes occurring nearer to Tokyo and along the western coast and just west of Tokyo. There have been several 6+ mag quakes.

Can they expect another big one - 7 or 8+ soon?

 

[SixNein]

Definitely TEPCO needed to do a better job. Then again, the people who would provide the data were probably concerned about their families, then dealing with multiple unexpected failures at the plant. The folks back at corporate probably had faith that the plant staff would get things quickly under control.

I'm thinking of more automated systems as opposed to human data entry. If there was just informative dedicated radiation monitors accessible online, I think a lot of fear would be reduced in the general public. One big problem that is occurring with this situation is trust. And I think its a security issue that has been overlooked.

The entire way plants are monitored need to be stepped up. There are a lot of unknowns in the public and probably the private side too.

 

[SixNein]

The earthquake swarm continues. Notice the more recent quakes occurring nearer to Tokyo and along the western coast and just west of Tokyo. There have been several 6+ mag quakes.

Can they expect another big one - 7 or 8+ soon?

Japan is starting to look like Yellowstone on crack.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Don't know the significance of this, but Bloomberg reports that passengers arriving from Tokyo set off radiation detectors. While I'm sure the dosage was insignificant, I was surprised that there would be any residual radiation. Apparently no one was quarantined.

First link to come up

Two flights that originated in Tokyo and landed in Dallas and Chicago yesterday triggered radiation detectors when passengers passed through customs, The Post has learned.

Tests on the jet that landed at the Dallas-Fort Worth airport showed low levels of radiation on the travelers' luggage and inside the cabin's filtration system...

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/nation...nd_in_us_8n9AikZo0x2vDiIgF0cS8K#ixzz1Gq9uo3mI

 

[myth_kill]

man this is really sad to hear

effecting the living people inf ar off areas

all this had to happen

2012 is nearing :(

 

[Astronuc]

U.S. Calls Radiation 'Extremely High,' Sees Japan Nuclear Crisis Worsening
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17nuclear.html
By DAVID E. SANGER, MATTHEW L. WALD and HIROKO TABUCHI
The chairman of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave a bleaker appraisal of the threat, but Japanese officials played down the concerns.

NYTimes Quote of the Day (It's a really big deal - an operator is not supposed to allow the situation to get so out of hand that the local activity would affect the people attempting to deal with the emergency)
"We believe that radiation levels are extremely high, which could possibly impact the ability to take corrective measures."
GREGORY JACZKO, chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, on the crisis at a Japanese nuclear power plant.

Flaws in Japan's Leadership Deepen Sense of Crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17tokyo.html
By HIROKO TABUCHI, KEN BELSON and NORIMITSU ONISHI
Never has Japan's weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed or mattered so much.

I wonder about the rudderless government (as it pertains to the lack of fiscal responsibility or the lack of determination to assist pro-democracy rebells in Libya, etc) in the US.

Foreign nuclear experts, the Japanese press and an increasingly angry and rattled Japanese public are frustrated by government and power company officials’ failure to communicate clearly and promptly about the nuclear crisis. Pointing to conflicting reports, ambiguous language and a constant refusal to confirm the most basic facts, they suspect officials of withholding or fudging crucial information about the risks posed by the ravaged Daiichi plant.
. . . .
Evasive news conferences followed uninformative briefings as the crisis intensified over the past five days. Never has postwar Japan needed strong, assertive leadership more — and never has its weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed. With earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis striking in rapid, bewildering succession, Japan’s leaders need skills they are not trained to have: rallying the public, improvising solutions and cooperating with powerful bureaucracies.
. . . .

I see I'm not the only one who is frustrated and somewhat bewildered at the respsonses in Japan - not so much the folks at the plant - but TEPCO and the government.

 

[nismaratwork]

U.S. Calls Radiation 'Extremely High,' Sees Japan Nuclear Crisis Worsening
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17nuclear.html
By DAVID E. SANGER, MATTHEW L. WALD and HIROKO TABUCHI
The chairman of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave a bleaker appraisal of the threat, but Japanese officials played down the concerns.

NYTimes Quote of the Day (It's a really big deal - an operator is not supposed to allow the situation to get so out of hand that the local activity would affect the people attempting to deal with the emergency)
"We believe that radiation levels are extremely high, which could possibly impact the ability to take corrective measures."
GREGORY JACZKO, chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, on the crisis at a Japanese nuclear power plant.

Flaws in Japan's Leadership Deepen Sense of Crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17tokyo.html
By HIROKO TABUCHI, KEN BELSON and NORIMITSU ONISHI
Never has Japan's weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed or mattered so much.

I wonder about the rudderless government (as it pertains to the lack of fiscal responsibility or the lack of determination to assist pro-democracy rebells in Libya, etc) in the US.

We're all ****less wonders? That's my take on it...

 

[WhoWee]

Watching these efforts to carry water and pump from trucks makes me wonder why they couldn't couple a few hundred feet of oil pipe together - to be attached to fire hose - and drug into position by the helicopter - maybe weigh-down the end to keep in position over pool. This would allow a continuous supply of water pumped from the bay.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

I’m very glad the skipper’s friend knows how to correct failures in english...

http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

 

[FlexGunship]

Maybe, but only because of irrational hysteria. This situation isn't good, but even assuming (reasonably) worst case scenario here, putting things in any kind of perspective at all shows nuclear power to be far safer than any alternative.

Nuclear power is a lot like airplanes in that regard: absolutely safer than the alternatives, but any disaster involving one seems to be emotionally multiplied by a million.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

The earthquake swarm continues. Notice the more recent quakes occurring nearer to Tokyo and along the western coast and just west of Tokyo. There have been several 6+ mag quakes.

Can they expect another big one - 7 or 8+ soon?

On top of everything else - this could be a very 'stressful' factor... I was listening to this man on the radio (sorry no way to attach link or translation):

[URL]http://www.geofys.uu.se/rb/reynir.JPG[/URL]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynir_B%C3%B6dvarsson"
Seismologist
Uppsala University in Sweden

And he said that there has been ONE earthquake near Tokyo (I think it was ~M6?) that does NOT "belong" to the "other" quakes – i.e. the movement vector is along another tectonic plate.

There are SPECULATIONS if this could be the start of foreshocks before THE BIG ONE in the Tokyo area (that is 'calculated' to come sooner than later).

The experts DON’T KNOW if the M8.9 released stress in the Tokyo area (meaning; later and lower quakes), or if MORE STRESS was built up...

[PLAIN]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b1/Japan_separation.png

[URL]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7c/Okhotsk_Plate_map_-_de.png/400px-Okhotsk_Plate_map_-_de.png[/URL]

[URL]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/Plates_tect2_en.svg/700px-Plates_tect2_en.svg.png[/URL]

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Nuclear power is a lot like airplanes in that regard: absolutely safer than the alternatives, but any disaster involving one seems to be emotionally multiplied by a million.

Especially if you are sitting in the plane.

 

[Astronuc]

Nuclear power is a lot like airplanes in that regard: absolutely safer than the alternatives, but any disaster involving one seems to be emotionally multiplied by a million.

Especially if you are sitting in the plane.

Yes, the consequences are different if one is directly affected. If one is on the plane that crashes, or one's family member or friend is lost, then I would imagine one would be quite emotional.

Faith in the safety nuclear power plants or aircraft is only as good as the practices. As long as there are not accidents, then there is confidence. An accident challenges that confidence, according to the severity. The performance is only as good as the training and dedication of those operating the plants or flying the aircraft.

 

[alt]

Yes, and I wouldn't call it hysteria. While there is certainly some of that, every argument made in favor of nuclear power for the last twenty years will serve as evidence that the nuclear industry cannot be trusted. We were told the reactors were safe when they were built. We were told that new reactors are much safer now - you know, new and improved? Which means you were selling us the old crappy stuff the first time and still operating it? We couldn't trust you before but we can now?

What really sinks this for me is the cause of the failure. It is EXACTLY the sort of lame oversight that I have talked about in the past - the reason I don't trust any form of heavy or light industry. I have seen it too many times at too many levels. Nothing about the engineering can be trusted when industry can be so incredibly blind to the weakest link.

When we allow cost to compromise public safety or common sense, this is what we get. Those generators should have been tsunami proof, not tsunami resistant. This was caused by approximately the same mistake that sank the Titanic - the lame assumption was made that the water would never go over the wall. It was a pedestrian oversight. It was completely preventable. It wasn't a matter of failed nuclear engineering, this isn't rocket science, just as we saw in the Gulf last summer, it was a matter of failed responsibility. It is an unforgivable oversight and I seriously doubt the public trust can be recaptured. The spin masters will make mince meat of the pro-nuclear position, and at this point I have to agree with them.

I know that good people with good intentions build these systems to the highest standards. I understand that it is not a betrayal of good faith. I also know that we need nuclear power. But it is true at every level of industry that the almighty bottom line challenges reason and responsibility. What caused this disaster was the need to save a few bucks, nothing more. And for that, all of the grandiose statistics and calculations go right down the toilet. What people will remember are exploding nuclear power plants. Do I want that in my backyard? Hell no!

Public perception is I think a lost cause. It will be another thirty years before the public starts to buy into this again, and by then we may no longer need it.

I know that good people with good intentions build these systems to the highest standards. I understand that it is not a betrayal of good faith.

Maybe there was betrayal of good faith. I'm sure I heard on the news this morning, that Japanese nuclear power executives have FUDGED reports on safety inspection and related issues - for years. I'll try to find something more on this.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

... I'm sure I heard on the news this morning, that Japanese nuclear power executives have FUDGED reports on safety inspection and related issues - for years. I'll try to find something more on this.

TEPCO has been involved in safety scandals:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Electric_Power_Company#Scandal

Scandal

On August 29, 2002, the government of Japan revealed that TEPCO was guilty of false reporting in routine governmental inspection of its nuclear plants and systematic concealment of plant safety incidents. All seventeen of its boiling-water reactors were shut down for inspection as a result. TEPCO's chairman Hiroshi Araki, President Nobuya Minami, Vice-President Toshiaki Enomoto, as well as the advisers Shō Nasu and Gaishi Hiraiwa stept by September 30, 2002.[3], and the utility "eventually admitted to two hundred occasions over more than two decades between 1977 and 2002, involving the submission of false technical data to authorities".[4] Upon taking over leadership responsibilities, TEPCO's new president issued a public commitment that the company would take all the countermeasures necessary to prevent fraud and restore the nation's confidence. By the end of 2005, generation at suspended plants had been restarted, with government approval.

In 2007, however, the company announced to the public that an internal investigation had revealed a large number of unreported incidents. These included an unexpected unit criticality in 1978 and additional systematic false reporting, which hadn't been uncovered during the 2002 inquiry. Along with scandals at other Japanese electric companies, this failure to ensure corporate compliance resulted in strong public criticism of Japan's electric power industry and the nation's nuclear energy policy. Again the company made no effort to identify those responsible.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

From a military friend's wife I know outside of Tokyo

As of today, the President of the US has authorized a military assisted VOLUNTARY departure of dependents from Japan.

In the next 24 hours, there will be Air Force cargo passenger planes landing here on Atsugi, first taking women & children (possibly to Korea) for 1-2 days then another transfer to a new destination which is not yet known. Pacific Air Force planes will fly into Narita, Yokota & Atsugi - trying to do 10,000 people per day through the 3 sites. The next step would be bringing civilian airliners into these spaces (United, American, etc.) to move out more people.

We've been advised to go ahead and pack a suitcase for 3-5 days, get our passports, any thing that we'll need like diapers, baby food, etc. & plan to be gone for a few days.

This is NOT an emergency, it's a precautionary measure only. They hope to start the evacuations in the next 24 hours.

 

[nismaratwork]

Hmmmm... I'm not sure what to make of that...

 

[rhody]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17nuclear.html?emc=eta1"

From the NY Times piece above, simply stated, this is the undepinning reason things are rapidly spinning out of control, with potentially dire consequences for Japan and the world.

“Everything in their system is built to build consensus slowly,” said one American official who would not be quoted by name because of the delicacy of discussions with Japan. “And everything in this crisis is about moving quickly. It’s not working.”

Rhody...

 

[nismaratwork]

I think Jim Walsh put it well... you have Reactor 4 with the fuel rod pool creating a dangerous radiation field that makes it tough or impossible to service reactor 3... and you can see the domino effect inherent in that.

Truly this is heroic work... and even more people have gone to the plant.

On a different note, I can't watch the news coverage any more... too many grandparents crying for their children and grandchildren. I've never seen such frank misery and despair in Japan.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

From the NY Times piece above, simply stated, this is the undepinning reason things are rapidly spinning out of control, with potentially dire consequences for Japan and the world.

Not good

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Yes, the consequences are different if one is directly affected. If one is on the plane that crashes, or one's family member or friend is lost, then I would imagine one would be quite emotional.

I was once ready to die inside a small 10 seat turboprop aircraft.

We were flying to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_de_Noronha" , 350 km offshore from the northern Brazilian coast (Natal), when we were hit by a tropical thunderstorm, halfway out over the Atlantic.

The aircraft was so small that we could see the thunderstorm on the radar in the cockpit. It looked like a yellow/red "cancer tumor" slowly approaching. When we entered the storm the whole plane jumped heavily up & down, so hard that we had to fasten the seatbelts to stay in place.

After a short moment huge hail bombarded the plane and it sounded like someone was firing a machine gun at us.

At this point I was very close to do No. 2 in my pants...

More and heavier jumping + hail + unbelievable strong rain + thunder & lightning = complete chaos.

Then something strange happened – I became perfectly calm! I knew that there was absolutely not one thing on this planet that I could do to change the situation, and I was not afraid at all...

I know it sounds completely crazy, but it’s the truth.

We finally made it to the island and landed (surfed) in 10+ cm water on the airfield.

Then my legs started to shake, and it was high time for some Brazilian 54% abv Caninha...


(Sorry for going off-topic)

 

[malty]

It seems some Japanese weren't too happy with the standard of journalism and reporting (who'd blame them?) so they've started a journalist http://jpquake.wikispaces.com/Journalist+Wall+of+Shame" . Singling out newspapers and media outlets that have used Japan's misery as a means of selling their product.

This Wall of Shame is being assembled by various people, many of whom are on the ground in Japan as residents, not temporarily assigned journalists, who are sick of the sensationalist, overly speculative, and just plain bad reporting that has gone on since the Tohoku quake in Japan last Friday (March 11). We feel that contacting each and every publication and reporter every time a bad report shows up is not effective, and it is our sincere hope that this will encourage journalists to aspire to a higher (some would say minimal) level of responsibility in their reports. If you would like to add a report of your own, feel free.

Gotta say some of the errors and attempts of fear mongering listed are atrocious.

 

[BobG]

Watching these efforts to carry water and pump from trucks makes me wonder why they couldn't couple a few hundred feet of oil pipe together - to be attached to fire hose - and drug into position by the helicopter - maybe weigh-down the end to keep in position over pool. This would allow a continuous supply of water pumped from the bay.

Well, the trucks didn't work so well. Because of the radiation, they couldn't get close enough for the spray to reach, although that's disputed by TEPCO, which says the spraying was somewhat effective.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42124500/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

A new power line providing full power is about 1.5 km short of completion, but just getting the power line to the nuclear facility won't automatically solve the problem. Given the info that's come out about the crisis so far, any hedging seems like a guarantee of failure. There's a good chance that the damage from the tsunami and the explosions so far will make restoration of power a moot point.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/03/17/sot.nhk.nuclear.explainer.nhk

Somehow, the toy vehicles just make that briefing seem pathetically comical.

 

[IMP]

Here is an interesting timelapse of the quake and the aftershocks:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42037498/ns/world_news-asia-pacific/

 

[Proton Soup]

Yes, the consequences are different if one is directly affected. If one is on the plane that crashes, or one's family member or friend is lost, then I would imagine one would be quite emotional.

Faith in the safety nuclear power plants or aircraft is only as good as the practices. As long as there are not accidents, then there is confidence. An accident challenges that confidence, according to the severity. The performance is only as good as the training and dedication of those operating the plants or flying the aircraft.

one normally expects the japanese to do everything by the book. so, I'm curious as to whether you think the plant operators have have succeeded on that metric, and also whether they may have been hindered by a lack of ability to improvise when the situation becomes SNAFU'd.

 

[Astronuc]

one normally expects the japanese to do everything by the book. so, I'm curious as to whether you think the plant operators have have succeeded on that metric, and also whether they may have been hindered by a lack of ability to improvise when the situation becomes SNAFU'd.

As far as I know, the book doesn't cover the situation after they lose EDGs and emergency power supply. Now they are outside of their emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and more or less flying by the seat of their pants.

I doubt they even did a drill or training simulation in which they lost EDGs and backup, on three or four units, let alone one - and failed to restore offsite in a timely manner.

That's one of the lessons learned - the hard way.

The next time . . . . - well there better not be a next time!