8.9 earthquake in Japan: tsunami warnings

[Proton Soup]

Wow... that's almost exactly like pissing on a bonfire.

makes perfect sense to me. I'm just aghast that they seemed to have forgot about all that active fuel up there drying out the pond.

 

[nismaratwork]

makes perfect sense to me. I'm just aghast that they seemed to have forgot about all that active fuel up there drying out the pond.

Yeah... I don't know what can be done though. I still can't believe the EDGs were so low in the facility...

 

[Astronuc]

Hopefully, I'll be headed to Fukushima as soon as feasible.

 

[lisab]

Tonight after work, I went jogging at the park down the street. There's an area there with a pagoda, a Shinto shrine, and a nice Japanese garden (not uncommon in parks on the US west coast). On a bench, an elderly Japanese couple sat, loudly chanting in prayer. Very sad, and so beautiful.

 

[turbo]

Hopefully, I'll be headed to Fukushima as soon as feasible.

My wife says that if you do that, she'll kill you next time she sees you. We'd like to have you folks around for awhile.

 

[Lacy33]

Astro, Are you serious?
And LisaB, I saw something today in midtown like that. Three Japanese girls were walking down the street. One in the middle was sobbing and holding a small American flag. They seem to have just picked her up from the train. They were trying to console her.

 

[russ_watters]

I'm giving Ivan the benefit of the doubt... I suspect he means that due to hysteria and lobbies it's going down, not by need alone.

Certainly hysteria has happened because of this. The media is measuring it with polls regarding people's "concern" about nuclear power and support for building new plants: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-03-17-rw_nukepoll14_ST_N.htm

It doesn't matter that no one has died because of it (though some almost certainly will). This is so far outside of peoples' everyday understanding and comfort zones, it is panic inducing. But consider that people accept the deaths of tens of thousands of people a year due to coal power without batting an eyelash (in the US). And few people panic over getting a seasonal flu despite the fact they also kill tens of thousands of people a year (in the US). SARS caused a global panic even though globally only a few thousand (IIRC) died and "swine flu" caused similar panic even though it ended up being not much worse than a typical seasonal flu.

I have great pride in keeping myself to scientific thoughts, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere in Japan right now, even though I know intellectually that the risk is relatively low unless I was very close to one of the plants.

So even if this disaster doesn't surpass Chernobyl, killing less than 100 people in the short term, people are still going to panic just like they did with SARS. Ironically, people would probably be more comfortable with nuclear power if such accidents happened once a year. Then, they'd be in our realm of "normal".

 

[jreelawg]

This might be kind of a dumb question, but, when the diesel generators failed, why couldn't they just bring in new generators?

 

[Amp1]

I read - a local tabloid - the threat level is 6 now. Are they anticipating a Chernobyl event?

 

[turbo]

This might be kind of a dumb question, but, when the diesel generators failed, why couldn't they just bring in new generators?

Those had to be REALLY massive generators. I have had a lot of experience with pulp and paper mills and other mills that needed emergency on-demand generation to maintain critical systems in event of a sudden loss of power. I can't begin to imagine how much those would have to be scaled-up to service nuclear plants, though, because the electrical draws of the cooling systems required would be orders of magnitude larger than a typical industrial plant.

 

[SixNein]

Certainly hysteria has happened because of this.

I agree with you completely.

I think that a Chernobyl type of event was only a real possibility Friday. If the reactor shutdown process failed because of the earthquake, the fission process would have went out of control once the cooling process was interrupted. This is simply not the situation now.

 

[Angry Citizen]

I don't personally believe Chernobyl is possible. Chernobyl was pretty unique in its ability to disperse contaminants. Even if one of the containment units are cracked, that doesn't necessarily entail large scale dispersal of contaminants beyond the plant, and certainly not onto the wider islands. It is lucky that the plant is located on the eastern side of Japan, which I would presume would typically have winds from the west, leading to dispersal out to sea.

 

[Astronuc]

This might be kind of a dumb question, but, when the diesel generators failed, why couldn't they just bring in new generators?

The earthquakes and tsunami did a lot of damage to the infrastructure around Fukushima! As soon as the EDGs failed, they immediately attempted to get backup generators/power supply.

 

[nismaratwork]

Hopefully, I'll be headed to Fukushima as soon as feasible.

Don't even think it... that reactor #4 is putting out truly lethal doses...

@Russ: I know... it's hard to explain to people that, on one hand this is truly a catastophe, but on the other it's nothing compared to what we do every day burning coal. People hear nuclear, and they see Ivy Mike... that is a hard nut to crack.

I think you're right about the fear borne of unfamiliarity... I think that's part of the terrifying aspect of chemical weapons... after all, you're just as dead if you get hit by a Katyusha rocket, but somehow people can reconcile that.

I also have to agree with your statement about staying out of Japan, in part, because there can be no trust of TEPCO, or the IAEA, which has shirked its duties so badly it's painful. We're people... we can't always be rational when invisible things are potentially shortening out lives.

 

[Astronuc]

Comparisons to Chernobyl are premature - we don't have a basis.

Once we know how much fuel is damaged (breached), i.e., the source term, then we can start to determine the amount of radioactivity released. Then we can compare to Chernobyl.

Please be patient. We all want to know.


BTW -this might have been mentioned elsewhere, but -

Mag 6.2 in Eastern Honshu, Japan!

Date-Time Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:31:46 UTC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:31:46 PM at epicenter

Location: 35.300°N, 138.700°E

Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region
Distances:
36 km (22 miles) S of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
37 km (22 miles) NW of Numazu, Honshu, Japan
42 km (26 miles) NNE of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
116 km (72 miles) WSW of TOKYO, Japan

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc00023fx.php#maps

 

[nismaratwork]

The Japanese people officially cannot catch a break.

 

[SixNein]

Comparisons to Chernobyl are premature - we don't have a basis.

Once we know how much fuel is damaged (breached), i.e., the source term, then we can start to determine the amount of radioactivity released. Then we can compare to Chernobyl.

Please be patient. We all want to know.

I think any comparisons to Chernobyl is an invitation to panic. And I don't think there is a comparison to be made here. This event will be unique in its own right, and it will have its own unique safety concerns.

I'm annoyed about the lack of information about radiation releases occurring around the plant. I wish I knew some formulas to estimate it off of the available information.

 

[nismaratwork]

I think any comparisons to Chernobyl is an invitation to panic. And I don't think there is a comparison to be made here. This event will be unique in its own right, and it will have its own unique safety concerns.

I'm annoyed about the lack of information about radiation releases occurring around the plant. I wish I knew some formulas to estimate it off of the available information.

Certainly there seems to be very little possibility of an explosion, and without that you can't loft as much cesium into the jetstream.

On the downside, the radiation field is really disgustingly nasty, and now reactor 3 is having issues with its pool

Sanjay Gupta is reporting that rad levels in Tokyo are 20x the norm.

 

[SixNein]

Certainly there seems to be very little possibility of an explosion, and without that you can't loft as much cesium into the jetstream.

On the downside, the radiation field is really disgustingly nasty, and now reactor 3 is having issues with its pool

Sanjay Gupta is reporting that rad levels in Tokyo are 20x the norm.

They should have data-sets available.

 

[nismaratwork]

They should have data-sets available.

They should, but I have no idea where. Keep in mind that Gupta and Cooper are in Tokyo... and I believe this is based on a revised statement by the Japanese government. Apparantly they were off by an order of magnitude.


WHoooopseeeee.

 

[Angry Citizen]

Sanjay Gupta is reporting that rad levels in Tokyo are 20x the norm.

That makes zero sense in light of this:

http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

According to the chart, radiation levels in Tokyo are decreasing. And as mentioned either in this thread or the other, could be clouded by the recent volcanic eruption.

 

[Astronuc]

I'm going to generally ignore the network media on this.

I watch a guy try to explain the Fukushima event with a diagram of a PWR. The Fukushima units are BWRs. Big diff.

 

[SixNein]

That makes zero sense in light of this:

http://park18.wakwak.com/~weather/geiger_index.html

According to the chart, radiation levels in Tokyo are decreasing. And as mentioned either in this thread or the other, could be clouded by the recent volcanic eruption.

I was sitting here thinking about those graphs. So many contradictions in the media right now.

If anything is learned from this nuclear event, I think it should be the importance of providing data to the public. Unknowns and Fears go together.

 

[nismaratwork]

I'm going to generally ignore the network media on this.

I watch a guy try to explain the Fukushima event with a diagram of a PWR. The Fukushima units are BWRs. Big diff.

Ugh... that's... genuinely depressing.

@Angry: I agree, I can't see these dinks agreeing on a single 'fact' for more than 10 minutes. The downside is that this is causing distrust in Japan, where people really need to be trusting their government.

 

[nismaratwork]

I was sitting here thinking about those graphs. So many contradictions in the media right now.

If anything is learned from this nuclear event, I think it should be the importance of providing data to the public. Unknowns and Fears go together.

I wouldn't be so sure that the public info isn't just a reflection of the private info. It seems that until today, the info was coming from TEPCO, through the Japanese government, then recycles by the IAEA who haven't even ARRIVED.

 

[SixNein]

I'm going to generally ignore the network media on this.

I watch a guy try to explain the Fukushima event with a diagram of a PWR. The Fukushima units are BWRs. Big diff.

My favorite news report published on several web sites has been:

"Mr Grimston said it now seemed likely workers would flood the reactor building with sea water and boric acid – a good nutrient absorber."

http://www.mercia.co.uk/news/japanquake/fukushima-fallout-how-bad-could-it-get/


I guess... it absorbs the vitamin C lol

 

[nismaratwork]

My favorite news report published on several web sites has been:

"Mr Grimston said it now seemed likely workers would flood the reactor building with sea water and boric acid – a good nutrient absorber."

http://www.mercia.co.uk/news/japanquake/fukushima-fallout-how-bad-could-it-get/


I guess... it absorbs the vitamin C lol

Wow... you just know that was a spellcheck issue, and the editor looked over it and said, "yep, that's about right".

*facepalm*

 

[SixNein]

I wouldn't be so sure that the public info isn't just a reflection of the private info. It seems that until today, the info was coming from TEPCO, through the Japanese government, then recycles by the IAEA who haven't even ARRIVED.

But it goes back to my point about providing data sets. The nuclear industry needs to do something like the geological community has done with seismographs. Setup dedicated 24/7 online data-sets providing information.

 

[SixNein]

Wow... you just know that was a spellcheck issue, and the editor looked over it and said, "yep, that's about right".

*facepalm*

I just wonder how many editors have signed off on it.

 

[Angry Citizen]

But it goes back to my point about providing data sets. The nuclear industry needs to do something like the geological community has done with seismographs. Setup dedicated 24/7 online data-sets providing information.

What would that have done? The EDG's would still have been obliterated, and the reactors would still be in the same situation as a direct result of that obliteration.