Gordon,
It is your model, you suggested we consider it per Bell. It's a common one, so ok, so I have. The CHSH upper limit is 2, and I don't know the exact expectation value for CHSH for this model but it is definitely less than 2. Of course the experimental value is above 2.
You asked what P(AB) would be, I indicated .375. If you want to know E(AB), just use lugita15's formula and you get E(AB)=-.25.
Not sure how I am abusing A and B, I didn't even mention them in my last post. Yes, there is a difference between the particle detected by Alice, the angle setting Alice uses, and Alice as the observer. However, I can't help you much on the point because I interchange Alice and Bob, and A and B, etc. as I think it is easier for the analogies I make. I would hope that my choice of capitalization wouldn't confuse too much, I usually try to follow what the other person is doing. In this case, I have been following you preference in this thread to use E(AB) and P(AB) which is what I am writing as well. I do not usually repeat every step of a derivation when you can see that for yourself in the source literature. If you have a specific question, I will usually answer that. Is your question how I arrived at .375? I can show that if it helps. I used the Product State statistics, which apply to the OP example, and that formula has:
P(A,B)=.25+.5(cos^2(A-B))
[Where A and B are the angle settings and there is the unspoken assumption that the example does not have some particular bias that is not mentioned, such that the source is reasonably randomized.]
I mentioned that I commonly use 0 and 120 degrees for my settings. So substituting in the above, I get .25 + .5(.25) = .375 which is the rate of matches (which is what I usually report). Keep in mind that the "proper" correlation rate subtracts mismatches so that is why you could also report .375 - .625 which is the -.25 number mentioned above. I think you are using that to be E(A,B). As long as we know what basis we are reporting on, they are really the same thing.
A bit confused about your comments about Bell not being relevant as I think. I never said the Bell protocol does not work here, and I am not sure why you keep pushing me in that direction. Further, you must keep in mind that a discussion on PhysicsForums is not going to alter what the general physics community thinks of Bell. Bell is highly regarded, in fact an interesting piece of history. By 1970, 5 years after Bell appeared in a now defunct publication, new interpretations were needing to address Bell because its logic was so powerful. See for example something cited by billschnieder:
The Statistical Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
This devotes considerable attention to EPR, Bell and hidden variables.