A plan for the private colonization of the moon

[Scia]

I have a plan for the private colonization of the moon. My plan includes 5 aerospace companies they are

1.SpaceX
2.Bigelow aerospace
3.Virgin galactic or Reaction Engines Limited
4.Armadillo aerospace
5.Ad Astra Rocket company

First SpaceX launches the Sundancer Inflatable habitation module into LEO and offers rides to it by its dragon spacecraft . Later once Virgin galactic or
Reaction Engines Limited, creates a spaceplane that can get to LEO, the ferrying of people to the Bigelow space stations can be taken over by one of these companies. By this point the Falcon 9 rocket is expected to be completely reusable, and can be used to carry Cargo or new Space station parts(Such as the BA 330)to LEO. By this point Access to LEO will be relativity cheap and routine, with Cargo being carried to LEO by the reusable Falcon 9, and people by the SKYLON or one of SpaceShip series Also we will have space station technology superior to the international space station. After this you launch a bigelow space station into geostationary orbit around the Earth to act as a transfer point to the moon. You can get there using a modified Dragon SpaceCraft you could make this craft small and without living space because its a relativity short trip.

Then SpaceX(maybe with the collaboration of bigelow)can create a spacecraft that is designed to go from LEO to Lunar orbit and only operate in space. This Spacecraft might be based of the Apollo CSM, the command module could be a modified dragon spacecraft . The Service module could be a BA 330 to act as living quarters. The engines would might be VASIMR engines(created by Ad Astra rocket company). These engines would be powered by Advanced solar panels that are expected to be released in the near future. this spacecraft would be launched from the geostationary space station so it will be farther away from the gravity of the earth.

This Spacecraft would cheaply ferry humans to lunar orbit to dock with another Bigelow space station complex launched there beforehand by SpaceX's Heavy lift rockets. At this time I think that SpaceX will have a Super heavy lift launch Vehicle(SpaceX has already Proposed building such a rocket). After the LEO to lunar orbit spacecraft docks with the lunar orbit space station they will take a lunar lander built by armadillo aerospace to the surface. Armadillo's work on VTOL spacecraft makes them the ones that will probably make this craft. The moon base will be made of BA 330 modules set underground as to protect the lunar colonists from the dangerous solar radiation.

A main reason why space is something not many people want to invest in is because its very expensive to fund and there its an unknown if the funding will get results. Also it takes a long time to make a profit because it takes such a long time to develop the craft. My plan eliminates these economic problems by making each part of the plan worth money on its own. The main problem I'm having is how to make a manned geostationary space station profitable.

Please give me all the constructive criticism you can

 

[berkeman]

Part of a good plan is to list the detailed costs, and where the money is coming from. You use terms like "relatively cheap" and "cheaply", but those are too nebulous (and probably not correct anyway).

Please list out the financials involved, including the detailed costs of development and deployment. Then list the proposed sources of funding...

 

[D H]

Why would these competing companies want to work together on this? What is in it for them? Businesses like things called business plans. You need to show that a market exists and you need to assess the size of the market. You need to show expected costs, expected profits, and risks. This plan doesn't minimize risk: It maximizes it! You have a whole bunch of low TRL technologies, and have made each one a critical link in the chain.

 

[Scia]

Why would these competing companies want to work together on this? What is in it for them?

Well first of all none of these companies compete with each other

Virgin does passenger transport to suborbital space
SpaceX does Cargo and passenger transport to LEO
Bigelow does Space stations

Businesses like things called business plans. You need to show that a market exists and you need to assess the size of the market. You need to show expected costs, expected profits, and risks. This plan doesn't minimize risk: It maximizes it! You have a whole bunch of low TRL technologies, and have made each one a critical link in the chain.

Then how else can the private industry colonize space? Each one of them has skills and technology that are needed for this to work.

Also to lower risk you could just have armadillo be contracted such as they build it then who ever operates it buys it

Then armadillo would not have personal stake if something failed

 

[Scia]

Part of a good plan is to list the detailed costs, and where the money is coming from. You use terms like "relatively cheap" and "cheaply", but those are too nebulous (and probably not correct anyway).

Please list out the financials involved, including the detailed costs of development and deployment. Then list the proposed sources of funding...

Yes I know this plan is vague

I plan of greatly improving on it over the next 10 or so years

also I am only a HS junior so I have time

 

[berkeman]

Yes I know this plan is vague

I plan of greatly improving on it over the next 10 or so years

also I am only a HS junior so I have time

Yes, you do have time. I'd suggest spending the next bit of your time on this project fleshing out the expected costs, rather than fleshing out the technical details. Keep on thinking!

 

[Scia]

Yes, you do have time. I'd suggest spending the next bit of your time on this project fleshing out the expected costs, rather than fleshing out the technical details. Keep on thinking!

Thank you that's good advice

What I am trying to do right now is get a solid basic framework

 

[Scia]

So any criticism for the technical parts of my plan?

Before I flesh out the costs I need to know if there are any technical problems

 

[Scia]

Also

We should just make the space station manned only when transferring to a Lunar lander.

That way we could avoid long term radiation exposure

a couple days didn't hurt the Apollo astronauts

 

[russ_watters]

My plan eliminates these economic problems by making each part of the plan worth money on its own.

Your plan assumes profitability of enterprises that could not possibly ever be profitable. A flight on SpaceShip Two costs $200,000 and comes nowhere close to achieving orbit. An orbital flight, to be profitable, would need to be more than 10x more expensive. How many people in the world do you really think could afford (and want to do) such things?

So any criticism for the technical parts of my plan?

Your plan contains no technical parts.

 

[Scia]

Your plan assumes profitability of enterprises that could not possibly ever be profitable. A flight on SpaceShip Two costs $200,000 and comes nowhere close to achieving orbit. An orbital flight, to be profitable, would need to be more than 10x more expensive. How many people in the world do you really think could afford (and want to do) such things?

Well first of all tourism would not be the only industry that could be profitable in LEO. Governments would pay for orbital flights that are much cheaper then using rockets. Also because you would be taken to a space station and possibly to the moon, you get more out of your flight. Its not just longer views of earth. Plus the expected cost of a seat on SS2 is expected to go down to 100,000. That means that 1 seat on SpaceShipThree or Four would cost 1 million.

And 8 people already have bought orbital flights to the ISS

Except these seats cost 30 million.
http://www.spaceadventures.com/

 

[Scia]

New Plan

-Outline-
I have a plan for the private colonization of the moon. My plan includes 5 aerospace companies they are

1.SpaceX
2.Bigelow aerospace
3.Virgin galactic or Reaction Engines Limited
4.Armadillo aerospace
5.Ad Astra Rocket company

First SpaceX launches the bigelow aerospace Sundancer Inflatable habitation module into LEO and offers rides to it by its dragon spacecraft .
Later once Virgin galacticor Reaction engines limited creates a spaceplane that can get to LEO (probobly in late 10's or early 20's),If its Virgin galactic it will probably be SpaceShipFour
because SS3 is going to be point to point suborbital. Then the ferrying of people to the Bigelow space stations can be taken over by one of these companies. By this point the Falcon 9 rocket
is expected to be completely reusable, and can be used to carry Cargo or Space station parts (Such as the BA 330) to LEO. By this point Access to LEO will be relativity cheap
and routine, with Cargo being carried to LEO by the reusable Falcon 9, and people by the SKYLON or one of SpaceShip series. Also we will have space station technology superior
to the international space station. Next you launch a bigelow space station into geostationary orbit around the Earth to act as a transfer point to the moon. You can get
there using a modified Dragon SpaceCraft, you could make this craft small and without living space because its a relativity short trip.

Then SpaceX(maybe with the collaboration of bigelow)can create a spacecraft that is designed to go from GEO to Lunar orbit and only operate in space. This Spacecraft
might be based of the Apollo CSM, the command module could be a modified dragon spacecraft . The Service module could be a BA 330 to act as living quarters. The Craft should be
designed so that if the VASIMR engines are not finished you can use chemical engines instead and then but VASIMR engines when there done.These engines would be powered by
Advanced solar panels that are expected to be released in the near future. this spacecraft would be launched from the geostationary space station so it will be farther away
from the gravity of the earth.

This Spacecraft would cheaply ferry humans to lunar orbit to dock with another Bigelow space station complex launched there beforehand by SpaceX's Heavy lift rockets.
At this time I think that SpaceX will have a Super heavy lift launch Vehicle(SpaceX has already Proposed building such a rocket). After the LEO to lunar orbit spacecraft docks
with the lunar orbit space station they will take a lunar lander built by armadillo aerospace to the surface. Armadillo's work on VTOL spacecraft makes them the ones that will
probably make this craft. The moon base will be made of BA 330 modules set underground as to protect the lunar colonists from the dangerous solar radiation.

-Business-

The main reason why space is something not many people invest in is because its a very high risk High cost thing. Also it takes a long time to make a profit
because it takes such a long time to develop the craft. My plan eliminates these economic problems by making each part of the plan worth money on its own.
-links-

Armadillo Aerospace: http://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Home
Virgin galactic: http://www.virgingalactic.com/
SpaceX: http://www.spacex.com/
Ad astra rocket company: http://www.adastrarocket.com/
Bigelow aerospace: http://www.bigelowaerospace.com/
Reaction Engines Limited: http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/

-Citations-

Reuseable Falcon 9: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2009/01/musk-ambition-spacex-aim-for-fully-reusable-falcon-9/
Elon musk out of orbit Goals and Heavy lift rocket: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX#Future_plans
Bigelow aerospace Lunar Goals: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigelow_Aerospace#Aspirations_beyond_Earth-orbit
Virgin Galactic SpaceShipThree: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceShipThree

 

[Scia]

Updated

-Outline-
I have a plan for the private colonization of the moon.

First SpaceX launches the bigelow aerospace Sundancer Inflatable habitation module into LEO and offers rides to it by its dragon spacecraft .
Later once Virgin galacticor Reaction engines limited creates a spaceplane that can get to LEO (probobly in late 10's or early 20's),If its Virgin galactic it will probably be SpaceShipFour
because SS3 is going to be point to point suborbital. Then the ferrying of people to the Bigelow space stations can be taken over by one of these companies. By this point the Falcon 9 rocket
is expected to be completely reusable, and can be used to carry Cargo or Space station parts (Such as the BA 330) to LEO. By this point Access to LEO will be relativity cheap
and routine, with Cargo being carried to LEO by the reusable Falcon 9, and people by the SKYLON or one of SpaceShip series. Also we will have space station technology superior
to the international space station. Next you launch a bigelow space station into geostationary orbit around the Earth to act as a transfer point to the moon. You can get
there using a modified Dragon SpaceCraft, you could make this craft small and without living space because its a relativity short trip.

Then SpaceX(maybe with the collaboration of bigelow)can create a spacecraft that is designed to go from GEO to Lunar orbit and only operate in space. This Spacecraft
might be based of the Apollo CSM, the command module could be a modified dragon spacecraft . The Service module could be a BA 330 to act as living quarters.The engines might be
SpaceX merlin engines, this spacecraft would be launched from a space station In LEO or GEO. Another thing We would need is Cargo transport to the moon. We could make this craft
Powered by VASIMR engines It would take a long time but then again cargo does not need life support.

This Spacecraft would cheaply ferry humans to lunar orbit to dock with another Bigelow space station complex launched there beforehand by SpaceX's Heavy lift rockets.
At this time I think that SpaceX will have a Super heavy lift launch Vehicle(SpaceX has already Proposed building such a rocket). After the LEO to lunar orbit spacecraft docks
with the lunar orbit space station they will take a lunar lander built by armadillo aerospace to the surface. Armadillo's work on VTOL spacecraft makes them the ones that will
probably make this craft. The moon base will be made of BA 330 modules set underground as to protect the lunar colonists from the dangerous solar radiation.

-Summary-
The main things we need are

1.Routine access to LEO using completely reusable spacecraft this craft only needs to carry passengers.
2.Private space stations in LEO and maybe GEO.
3.Completly reusable Earth Orbit to Luanr orbit craft that will act as a passenger transport.
4.Reuseable rocket to carry cargo to LEO.
5.Earth orbit to Lunar orbit cargo ships.
6.Lunar space station that will act as a transfer point to the groud and not as living space.
7.Reusable lunar landers
8.Moon base infrastructure(solar power, living space, Hydrophonic gardens, lunar rovers, ect...)

Of course the previous Outline just gave a estimate of what we can do now and in the near future and we can just alter the plan as new technology comes around.

-Business-

The main reason why space is something not many people invest in is because its a very high risk High cost thing. Also it takes a long time to make a profit
because it takes such a long time to develop the craft. My plan eliminates these economic problems by making each part of the plan worth money on its own.

Aside from that I am not business Savvy(yet)so I am going to need some help on this(Such as should they collaborate or compete ect...)

-links-

Armadillo Aerospace: http://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Home
Virgin galactic: http://www.virgingalactic.com/
SpaceX: http://www.spacex.com/
Ad astra rocket company: http://www.adastrarocket.com/
Bigelow aerospace: http://www.bigelowaerospace.com/
Reaction Engines Limited: http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/

-Citations-

Reuseable Falcon 9: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2009/01/musk-ambition-spacex-aim-for-fully-reusable-falcon-9/
Elon musk out of orbit Goals and Heavy lift rocket: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX#Future_plans
Bigelow aerospace Lunar Goals: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigelow_Aerospace#Aspirations_beyond_Earth-orbit
Virgin Galactic SpaceShipThree: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceShipThree

 

[john.phillip]

I think you should move on to cost estimates. Next, what do you think about outlining your enterprise with the help of PMBOK ?

 

[Scia]

I think you should move on to cost estimates. Next, what do you think about outlining your enterprise with the help of PMBOK ?

Well I would like to do cost estimates but I have very little business or economics education.

Never heard of it, I will look it up

 

[russ_watters]

I'm sorry, but there just isn't any engineering (or economic, for that matter) content in these posts, just idle speculation with little or no connection to engineering or economic realities. This isn't a discussion with content that fits PF.

Yeah, it would be cool if we had commercial transport to the moon, but 'wouldn't it be cool if...?' is not an engienering discussion, it is just chitchat.

Locked.