Another cold war ? China and U.S.

[CaptFirePanda]

China isn't anywhere near as powerful as the Soviet Union was. I think that the phrase "cold war" should be reserved for competitions between regional superpowers. At the moment the USA is the only superpower on the regional scale of the entire planet.

I think the 1960's-1980's definition of superpower no longer applies. We've come through huge economic, technological and social "booms" so to speak. The global culture is very different now than it was then. Resources and not firepower will determine the ultimate winners and losers.

You significantly under-estimate the PRC and it's ability to influence global stability.

 

[SHISHKABOB]

I think the 1960's-1980's definition of superpower no longer applies. We've come through huge economic, technological and social "booms" so to speak. The global culture is very different now than it was then. Resources and not firepower will determine the ultimate winners and losers.

You significantly under-estimate the PRC and it's ability to influence global stability.

if "superpower" has been redefined, then so has "cold war"

I don't disagree that China is a big player, but I do disagree that it is the kind of player that could tango with the USA in the same way the USSR did.

I'm being a little nit picky I guess, but when I think cold war I think of THE Cold War. The situation between the USA and China is NOT the same as the situation was between the USA and the USSR.

 

[CaptFirePanda]

"The Cold War" between the USSR and the USA involved two military superpowers. A cold war, however, just requires the two sides to engage in political/economic actions against each other. Military aid to other nations (in order to carry out proxy wars) and/or espionage are also aspects of a cold war.

North Korea and South Korea, as an example, have been involved in a cold war for quite some time now.

 

[SHISHKABOB]

"The Cold War" between the USSR and the USA involved two military superpowers. A cold war, however, just requires the two sides to engage in political/economic actions against each other. Military aid to other nations (in order to carry out proxy wars) and/or espionage are also aspects of a cold war.

North Korea and South Korea, as an example, have been involved in a cold war for quite some time now.

Right, I see what you mean now.

 

[DrClapeyron]

I only have data up to 2009, so bear with me here.

China consumed 4.795 million bpd of oil in 2000; they produced 3.248 million bpd. In 2009 they consumed 8.324 million bpd of oil; they produced 3.798 million bpd.

China's 2000-2009 annual oil consumption growth: 6.32%
China's 2000-2009 annual oil production growth: 1.75%
China's 2000-2009 annual oil net import growth: 12.66%

In 2015 this is what the numbers could look like:

Consumption: 12.023 million bpd
Production: 4.214 million bpd
Net Imports: 7.809 million bpd

In 2020 this what the numbers could look like:

Consumption: 16.334 million bpd
Production: 4.596 million bpd
Net Imports: 11.737 million bpd

It will be interesting to see what this decade will have in store considering world oil production has peaked since 2005; though many analysts believe this will lead to increased production from nonconventional sources such as tight oil and tar sands.

Source:

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=cn&product=oil&graph=production+consumption
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=has-peak-oil-already-happened

 

[CaptFirePanda]

In 2015 this is what the numbers will look like:

Consumption: 12.023 million bpd
Production: 4.214 million bpd
Net Imports: 7.809 million bpd

In 2020 this what the numbers will look like:

Consumption: 16.334 million bpd
Production: 4.596 million bpd
Net Imports: 11.737 million bpd

It will be interesting to see what this decade will have in store considering world oil production has peaked since 2005; though many analysts believe this will lead to increased production from nonconventional sources such as tight oil and tar sands.

I don't want to come off as nit-picker, but those numbers are projections so they could look like that in 3-8 years.

Overall, I agree with the increased demand from unconventional sources and this has many implications.

 

[shashankac655]

Like the title, has another cold war begun between China and U.S.. There are some indications and developments or Am I stating the obvious ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16423881

Appreciate comments and discussion on the topic.

I feel that there is definitely a small scale Cold war between US and China...you know things like cyber warfare
and militarization of Space
“whoever controls space controls the Earth.”

some say that China might be having around 3000 Nuclear bombs.

The question is not whether there is a cold war ,it whether it is going to intensify or not ,i don't know whether the countries can afford it.