Bayesian probability: The lighthouse problem

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on solving the lighthouse problem using Bayesian probability, specifically addressing questions 2 and 3. The user initially applies Bayes' theorem incorrectly for question 2, where the correct approach involves recognizing that the azimuths are uniformly distributed between 0 and 2π. The user correctly formulates the probability density function (PDF) for question 1 as d_k = β tan(θ_k) + α, but is advised to reconsider the application of Bayes' theorem for subsequent questions.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of Bayesian probability and its applications
  • Familiarity with probability density functions (PDFs)
  • Knowledge of uniform distributions in probability theory
  • Basic trigonometry, specifically the tangent function
NEXT STEPS
  • Review the concept of uniform distributions and their properties
  • Study the application of Bayes' theorem in various probability scenarios
  • Explore the derivation and normalization of probability density functions
  • Investigate the implications of random azimuths in probabilistic models
USEFUL FOR

Students and practitioners in statistics, data science, and probability theory, particularly those working with Bayesian methods and probability density functions.

Niles
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Homework Statement


Hi all.

Please take a look at this problem: http://web.gps.caltech.edu/classes/ge193/practicals/practical3/Lighthouse.pdf

I am stuck at question 2 and 3. For question 1 I get the following:

[tex] d_k = \beta \tan(\theta_k)+\alpha.[/tex]

For question 2 and 3, I know I have to use Bayes' sentence for probability density functions (PDF's), so for question 2 I get:

[tex] p(\theta_k\,\, |\,\, \alpha, \beta) = \frac{p(\alpha,\beta\,\,|\,\,\theta_k)\pi^{-1}}{C},[/tex]

where C is some constant that normalizes the PDF and I have assumed that the prior probability on [itex]\theta_k[/itex] is [itex]\pi^{-1}[/itex] (I was told to do this).

Could you guys tell me, what the next step is?

Thanks in advance.


Niles.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
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You're not supposed to use Bayes' theorem for #2. The answer to #2 is given by the statement that the pulses are emitted at "random azimuths". This presumably means that [itex]\theta_k[/itex] is uniformly distributed between 0 and [itex]2\pi[/itex].
 
Thanks! I'll keep working on it from here.
 

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