News Breaking Down the 2016 POTUS Race Contenders & Issues

[zoobyshoe]

So, what does it mean that he reversed himself on it? Was he lying then? Is he lying now? Did he change his mind? Did he just not think it through?

He got around it by saying he'd change the laws:

Just before leading the rally in the pledge, Trump once again opened the door to ordering the torture of captured suspected terrorists, just one day after vowing that he would not order military officials to violate U.S. or international laws.

"We're going to stay within the laws. But you know what we're going to do? We're going to have those laws broadened because we're playing with two sets of rules: their rules and our rules," Trump said pointing to ISIS's tactics, which have included torture and brutal executions.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politics/donald-trump-florida-pledge-torture/

 

[Astronuc]

Note that this is different from the Republican race where candidates dropping out can impact the outcome (I'm looking at you, Rubio - and I would have voted for you).

I expect Rubio to stay in the race into the convention. I hope he doesn't drop out under pressure, just as I hope Kasich doesn't drop out either.

 

[russ_watters]

I hope he doesn't drop out under pressure, just as I hope Kasich doesn't drop out either.

Why?

 

[Astronuc]

Why?

Because he and Kasish are voices for those who are voting for them, and apparently I agree more with Kasich and Rubio than with Cruz or Trump.

John Kasich (55%) - environmental, immigration, electoral and science issues
Marco Rubio (41%) - immigration, healthcare, electoral and science issues

Ted Cruz (33%) - immigration, healthcare, electoral and science issues
Donald Trump (24%) - electoral issues

From - https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/pf-2016-voter-thread.857279/#post-5379257

I'm not sure how my answers matched the policy positions, since I didn't bother to check the details.

If we were to elect a GOP candidate for the next president, I'd prefer Kasich or Rubio to Cruz or Trump.Meanwhile, Cruz won Idaho, and edged into second place in Michigan. Hawaii reports later tonight, or wait until tomorrow morning.

 

[russ_watters]

Unless you can demonstrate she mischaracterizes those studies and those experts, then your questioning of her is an ad hominem fallacy. There is no reason to suppose she can't properly characterize her sources without some evidence.

I wanted to respond to this last night, but was too tired to organize my thoughts...

ad hominem is a big problem in this election season, but not for the reason you are describing: you are applying it wrong.

Ad hominem, when an irrelevant personal trait is specified is just namecalling. That's bad.

But when the personal trait being brought up speaks to the credibility/bias of the person who's opinion/analysis you are listening to, it is a crucial element of the analysis and not a fallacy at all. It is essentially the inverse of "argument from authority" -- which is also not a fallacy when used properly. It's "trust me, I'm an expert" vs "don't trust him, he's biased"; Not a fallacy(if true/relevant). "Don't trust him, he's a buffoon"; maybe a fallacy (more on that one later).
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/1/Ad_Hominem_Abusive

So if you aren't checking out the credentials and biases of your sources, you should be. When I read an op-ed on a news website, it generally comes with a few sentences of biography of the writer. I always read that first. If I read an op-ed on fracking, written by a Haliburton CEO, I know in advance which direction I need to be pushing (back) the logic when reading the article. This is an essential tool in a person's critical thinking toolbox.

ad hominem a problem when discussing Trump himself because much of the criticism of him is based on personal traits or even just vague namecalling labels that have little or nothing to do with the issues. Following the rules of ad hominem is difficult when discussing Trump himself because whether the labal is a fallacy or not can depend on if it is meant literally or figuratively.

For example, when I say Trump is a buffoon or a joke, I mean it literally: I mean that he isn't serious (about many statements). See my description above for more on that. It's a perception and I could be wrong, but if I'm correct, it changes the meaning/interpretation of his statements.

If someone else calls Trump a buffoon but also calls him a racist for the same statement (say, his wall statement), that's a self contradiction and a fallacy.

Things get really difficult if we try to separate those two. That's the problem with shock speech: it is often difficult to tell when the person is being serious and when he isn't.

Even worse, as mheslep has repeatedly pointed out, many of the same traits that are supposed to be damning when applied to Trump are common to many politicians. That doesn't necessarily make them wrong as criticisms, but it does make fair analysis harder...which, by the way, is a good example of how bias can creep-in to affect the analysis. Probably the biggest hidden source of bias in analyses such as the one I deleted is that they are focused on Trump/Trump's supporters. Lacking any context for comparison makes it impossible fairly judge the severity of the issue. That applies to the very statistic that was misreported, for example.

 

[gleem]

That's a confusing statement since I would have thought Trump was the "bogeyman" that others are trying to make go away, but I think you are referring to me as a "Trumpist", trying to make criticism of him go away (which is a bit vague to be a "bogeyman"). Regardless, for the record, I am not a Trump supporter.

My reference to a bogeyman was not in reference to Trump nor was I trying to imply you are a Trump supporter. My statement was based on my conclusions from the censored link that you deleted. Trump supporters are greatly concerned and fear terrorism, they are concerned and fear changes in our society, they are concerned and fear uncontrolled immigration they are concerned about that which they cannot control and perceive as an affront to their security or find offensive (their bogeyman). They want someone who willing to accept their mandate and take whatever action is needed to allay these fears even at the expense of giving up some of their liberties.in the process or maybe as they see it taking some liberties away from others.

 

[Astronuc]

Primary Night Takeaways: Hillary Clinton Is Shaken and Donald Trump Roars Back
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/10/u...on-is-shaken-and-donald-trump-roars-back.html

Mr. Kasich wins college towns. Mr. Cruz wins ultraconservative outer suburbs. Mr. Kasich wins liberal Republicans. Mr. Cruz overperforms with evangelicals.

For most of the 2016 campaign, the Republicans vying to overtake Mr. Trump have squabbled bitterly. But Mr. Kasich and Mr. Cruz have so far avoided direct conflict, and Tuesday’s results show why: They are just not competing for the same voters.

Sanders shocks with historic upset in Michigan, but Clinton’s delegate lead still grows
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/sanders-shocks-with-historic-upset-in-michigan-064300089.html

The media seems to make it more than it is.

With his startling, come-from-behind victory Tuesday in Michigan, the underdog senator from Vermont pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Democratic primary history — just as his hopes of catching up to frontrunner Hillary Clinton seemed to be fading.

It’s a result that may spell trouble for Clinton, as other Rust Belt states — Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — head to the polls in the weeks ahead.

It seems just a normal part of the ups and downs in a presidential campaign. I guess it was an upset as far as Clinton and her campaign are concerned, but Sanders still has traction.

 

[DiracPool]

This campaign is really telling. It reminds me of that saying about it's only when the tide goes out that you know who's wearing swim trunks and who isn't. You have to hand it to Trump for shaking things up. He's really exposing these so-called erudite politicians as a bunch of "posers." What's even more pathetic are people like Mitt Romney who thinks he's so important that his public service announcement is going to change the political dynamic. Well, it seems to have changed it in the opposite fashion that he intended looking at yesterdays results. I really gives you pause as to what kind of judgement these jokers have. I'm glad Mitt didn't get elected. The GOP is walking a a fine edge in their condemnation of Trump. It seems to be backfiring. Attacks like this can just reinforce the image that the good old boys network doesn't want anyone tussling their moronic cushy jobs.

I've been a democrat my whole life and will still probably vote for Hillary, but there's still 6 months left for me to change my mind..

 

[zoobyshoe]

But when the personal trait being brought up speaks to the credibility/bias of the person who's opinion/analysis you are listening to, it is a crucial element of the analysis and not a fallacy at all.

No. The fact a person has a known bias does not mean their utterances can, therefore, be dismissed. A biased person can make a true statement.

Circumstantial[edit]

Ad hominem circumstantial points out that someone is in circumstances such that they are disposed to take a particular position. Ad hominem circumstantial constitutes an attack on the bias of a source. This is fallacious because a disposition to make a certain argument does not make the argument false; this overlaps with the genetic fallacy (an argument that a claim is incorrect due to its source).[7]

The circumstantial fallacy applies only where the source taking a position is only making a logical argument from premises that are generally accepted. Where the source seeks to convince an audience of the truth of a premise by a claim of authority or by personal observation, observation of their circumstances may reduce the evidentiary weight of the claims, sometimes to zero.[8]

To the extent Amanda Taub is basing her article on sources credible to PF (peer reviewed authors, properly constructed polls) the fact she is "the 'Senior Sadness Correspondent' at the left leaning Vox" is irrelevant.

So, if you based your deletion of the link on your perception she's biased, you should replace it. "...a disposition to make a certain argument does not make the argument false."

 

[DiracPool]

and will still probably vote for Hillary

This is a good opportunity to weigh in on Hillary. This is a complicated dynamic. I understand that she is bought and sold by Wall street and political action committees. That doesn't bother me, really. I'm OK with that. What I don't like is her demeanor. She seems like a trained puppet on the stage. The way she turns her gaze to Bernie when he's talking (and others earlier) just smacks of her executing some playbook maneuver designed by her political campaign team. The problem is that it's so transparent. I wish she would just look forward to the audience and perhaps scribble some nonsense in her notebook. That would be much better.

But again, I will still probably vote for Hillary, NOT because I think she's such a great politician or leader, but because she's not a terrible politician and leader AND that has a great and capable team behind her. I like to think that voting for Hillary is actually voting for Bill Clinton's second act. I'm OK with that. I like Bill Clinton and have fond memories of the 90's. Even though nothing great happened in the 90's. Actually, nothing at all happened in the 90's after Curt Cobain died, but I digress. Even though nothing great happened in the 90's nothing terrible happened in the 90's either. I'm ready for another 8 years of nothing terrible happening, so I'm probably going to vote for Hillary, only if she stops looking at Bernie Sanders during the debates, though..

 

[mheslep]

No. ... A biased person can make a true statement.
...

As can a member of the Klan or any number of radical groups. The *possibilty* of accurate statements is not the PF threshold for references. Discriminating among sources based on reputation for accuracy is not an ad hominem.

 

[zoobyshoe]

As can a member of the Klan or any number of radical groups. The *possibilty* of accurate statements is not the PF threshold for references. Discriminating among sources based on reputation for accuracy is not an ad hominem.

True. Descrimination among sources based on bias is, though: "Vox leans left, therefore has no credibility," would be an ad hominem. "Vox is chronically inaccurate," would not be.

 

[zoobyshoe]

"Vox is chronically inaccurate," would not be.

Now I wonder if this is rigorously true.

 

[zoobyshoe]

"Vox is chronically inaccurate," would not be.

OK, I think I spoke too soon and no longer think this is true.

Therefore, I don't think this is true, either:

Discriminating among sources based on reputation for accuracy is not an ad hominem.

I think, strictly speaking, this is an ad hominem, circumstantial.

edit: unless what you mean by it is that, without claiming all statements made by a given source must be inaccurate, enough are expected to be that sorting them out is not worth the effort.

However, I think this is true:

The *possibilty* of accurate statements is not the PF threshold for references.

 

[Dotini]

I understand that she is bought and sold by Wall street and political action committees. That doesn't bother me, really. I'm OK with that. .

You might as well have said you are okay with corruption and bribery. How do you possibly think anyone can take you seriously on any subject at all once you've said that?

 

[zoobyshoe]

What I don't like is her demeanor. She seems like a trained puppet on the stage.

I know what you mean. I think the cause of it is that all her early political experience was as "politician's wife." What you're seeing is that vapid pose all first ladies seem required to adopt. She never dropped it: it's what she knows, her automatic response when confronted by an audience.

 

[mheslep]

OK, I think I spoke too soon and no longer think this is true.

Therefore, I don't think this is true, either:

I think, strictly speaking, this is an ad hominem, circumstantial.

Textbook ad hominem is to claim an argument is *wrong or invalid*, simply because of the nature of the author. It is not ad hominem not to decline to review each and every reference, that is, to set some bar of due diligence for what is allowable in this forum. It would not be ad hominem, for instance, to ban Rolling Stone references on rape accusations at colleges, regardless of the author. That bar is necessarily subjective, and could be abused, but a moment's glance at the trash on the internet shows that PF does an excellent job, though we might not agree with this or that choice.

As it happens, from the reading I've done on Ezra Klein and Vox I find that he collects very intelligent and often interesting writers, and he leans left. Fine. I also think Klein is likely corrupt, not simply biased, due to his association with the secretive Journolist group some time ago that colluded to make opinion. Without more serious management involved, that taint flows to his authors.

 

[jim hardy]

This is a good opportunity to weigh in on Hillary. This is a complicated dynamic. I understand that she is bought and sold by Wall street and political action committees. That doesn't bother me, really. I'm OK with that.

We keep on electing from the same pool of politicians "owned" by special interests
and complaining about how things go.

A good seaman looks back at his ship's wake to judge how well the helmsman is steering.
A straight consistent wake indicates competence.

I look back at what we've done in the mideast and i want to change out the whole bridge crew.

NOT O's doing alone...
Compare directors of PNAC and its successor FPI.I look back at last fifteen years of monetary policy and i want to change out the whole bridge crew..

We're 16 trillion in debt and taking on water

It's interesting that one hears a lot about the broken political system, since it appears to have been broken for a long time. Looking back more than 20 years ago:

Best government money can buy...

https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/

Look at first line and ask "Why'd the banks get bailed out ?"
Look at 13th line .
When Ike warned us in his farewell address of a "Military Industrial Complex" growing to wield undue influence,
he unwittingly spilled the beans to groups 1 thru 12 .

As i said last Friday night

Regulatory capture by unethical corporations is IMHO this nation's biggest problem.

i'll stop now.

Hoping for change,

old jim

 

[jim hardy]

PS

re Trump's wall:

Obama and Hillary both voted YEA on the 2006 "Secure the Fence" bill.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/109-2006/s262

The Secure Fence Act of 2006’s goal is to help secure America’s borders to decrease illegal entry, drug trafficking, and security threats by building 700 miles (1,100 km) of physical barriers along the Mexico-United States border.

 

[DiracPool]

You might as well have said you are okay with corruption and bribery. How do you possibly think anyone can take you seriously on any subject at all once you've said that?

What are you living in fantasyland? You don't think that practically every politician is beholden to special interests that help them get where they are? That's why it's called "politics." http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/politics

"especially: competition between competing interest groups or individuals for power and leadership (as in a government)"

This is why this election season is so notable. Politicians are beholden to special interests groups because again, practically all of them do not have the personal resources one needs to run for office, especially higher offices, the presidency being the highest. So that was the point of my post. My point is that I understand that she is beholden to her supporters and that doesn't bother me. What bothers me is that she telegraphs it too much. She's too stiff. She looks like every move she makes is working off a script. It's one of those situations where I want to vote for her, all she has to do is not screw it up. The thing I like about Trump is that he looks like he could improvise on the fly. I like that quality. I don't know if Hillary has that confidence and spontaneity. It just feels like before she makes any decision she's going to have work a complex calculus as to is it OK with these people and those people and what decision do I need to make in order to piss off the fewest people I can. I don't like that. I know that's how these things often go in politics, but she needs to hide it better.

That's the thing that Trump has going for him. He's not "politically" correct because he doesn't have to be. This is a rare thing. He's really kind of the anti-Hillary. He's working off a whole different playbook that the public is buying into because, frankly, a good portion of the American public is sick and tired of political correctness. Hillary is the poster child for political correctness. She's working overtime not to offend anyone. What you lose in the process, though, is honesty. You lose conviction and decisiveness. For example, I'm hoping that she saw through the Bush administration's fraudulent pitch to the American public about the necessity of invading Iraq. I really do. But she voted to allow it, anyway? Why was that? Because she didn't want to look like she wasn't hawkish in international diplomacy. That's my guess. Big mistake. I really think that may have been the singular reason she lost the 2008 nomination. Obama voted against the Iraq invasion. Simple as that.

 

[zoobyshoe]

I also think Klein is likely corrupt, not simply biased, due to his association with the secretive Journolist group some time ago that colluded to make opinion.

I have no idea what this is about. What's this about?

 

[mheslep]

...

I look back at what we've done in the mideast and i want to change out the whole bridge crew...

Great metaphor, even if I disagree with how you play it out.

I agree with all the problems and their severity, or bad steering as you say. But not your solution (metaphorical), and I don't think you do either. It's a big ship underway in a storm, and you're proposing, I think, sacking them all and putting in charge the loud mouth drunk, rich, realestate guy at the bar who doesn't know bow from stern. Yes, sack a few guys on the bridge, but I think you'd make a more sober choice for a replacement.

 

[mheslep]

I have no idea what this is about. What's this about?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/JournoList

 

[jim hardy]

I agree with all the problems and their severity, or bad steering as you say. But not your solution (metaphorical), and I don't think you do either. It's a big ship underway in a storm, and you're proposing, I think, sacking them all and putting in charge the loud mouth drunk, rich, realestate guy at the bar who doesn't know bow from stern. Yes, sack a few guys on the bridge, but I think you'd make a more sober choice for a replacement.

Here is a bumpersticker i had made for the 2014 elections. We Arkansans got rid of our 'other' senator.

At this point I've not completely satisfied myself who i want at the helm. Trump is my idea of a 'clean sweep'.

Cruz i don't trust because of his campaign dirty tricks(Ben Carson) and his Goldman Sachs connections(wife is an executive there and he didn't disclose on the SEC filings his large loan from them).
His main backer Robert Mercer seems to me a bit of a radical rightist nut. Search and read up on him.

Kasich's foreign policy advisor Richard V Allen dates clear back to Nixon and Reagan. He should have accrued some wisdom by now. He's been on two conservative thinktanks, Heritage and Hoover foundations. I can't find any recent papers by him but here's a quote from a talk he gave in Nov 1996
http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/hl587nbsp-the-second-anniversary-of-the-us-north-korean

A selective and cursory glance backward reveals a little of what I have in mind when I say that. In 1952, the Eisenhower-Stevenson election was fought out largely on the issue of the conduct of the Korean War; in 1960, Kennedy and Nixon debated China policy and a nonexistent "missile gap;" in 1968, the Nixon-Humphrey contest revolved around the war in Vietnam; and in 1980, the Reagan-Carter battle turned on issues of foreign policy and national security, hostages in Iran, growing Soviet military power, and America's leadership role. I claim some special knowledge, having participated in two of those main events.
The extraordinary thing about the 1996 campaign is that there was not a single significant mention of foreign policy and national security issues: not a word about nuclear proliferation, nothing of terrorism, nothing about Russia and only a meaningless tad about China, silence about the future of Bosnia, a throwaway campaign line on the expansion of NATO, no debate on the condition of our security and the direction in which we are headed, no arguments about defense spending save for a few halfhearted sentences about missile defense, not even a serious or meaningful debate on trade.
On the one hand, you can view this either as a symbol of a prevailing consensus and harmony on these issues spread throughout the land, and particularly in our political circles --meaning that there is no disagreement on our foreign and national security policies--or, on the other hand, it can be seen as the measure of a political process so impoverished that it cannot muster a reasonable debate on issues critical to our future security interests. I think it is the latter.

www.heritage.org/research/lecture/hl587nbsp-the-second-anniversary-of-the-us-north-korean
That sort of perspective i find comforting. I like to see gray hair on the bridge. That's why i fly only old guard airlines not startups.

Kasich's PAC has a wide spectrum of donors and i think that's healthy.
https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/contrib.php?cycle=2016&id=N00009778&type=f
Kasich might be okay if that's who the RNC bureaucracy offers us.I'm a longtime fan of Eric Hoffer. He observed

Compassion is probably the only antitoxin of the soul. Where there is compassion even the most poisonous impulses remain relatively harmless. One would rather see the world run by men who set their hearts on toys but are accessible to pity, than by men animated by lofty ideals whose dedication makes them ruthless. In the chemistry of man's soul, almost all noble attributes — courage, honor, hope, faith, duty, loyalty, etc. — can be transmuted into ruthlessness. Compassion alone stands apart from the continuous traffic between good and evil proceeding within us.

Bold is why i didn't mind Clinton's preoccupation with floozies.

And it's why I'm attracted to Trump - i think it's just a game to him , one-upmanship on those who so desperately crave the power of office.
Trump has some reported acts of kindness in his background.
http://www.ijreview.com/2015/11/461...donald-trump-than-just-his-celebrity-persona/

If he surrounds himself with good advisors he'll do okay. I hope he finds a cabinet spot for Thomas Sowell.

At this point i don't know of anything terrible about either Trump or Kasich.

Hillary i detest for her stand against 2nd amendment, that's a major issue for me and i don't want her replacing Scalia. The second amendment is there so government won't forget about the first.

I'm pretty simple . That's how i see things at the moment.

So mhselep, my position is I'm asking for a little more than i expect to get - a complete outsider with no political debts.
That prospect sure has stirred up the establishment, hasn't it ?

We'll see what they offer.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Textbook ad hominem is to claim an argument is *wrong or invalid*, simply because of the nature of the author. It is not ad hominem not to decline to review each and every reference, that is, to set some bar of due diligence for what is allowable in this forum.

Agreed. It is not an ad hominem. Unless you screw up and phrase it in the form of an ad hominem: 'be on the lookout for sources that are biased (and therefore, not acceptable).' 'That source is biased, therefore not allowed," would be an ad hominem, circumstantial. The reducio ad absurdam for this is "The mother told her kid not to stick a fork in the wall socket. But she would say that wouldn't she, she's his mother!" Having a bias, a personal motive for what you say, is not proof it is inaccurate. Accuracy, or lack thereof, stands by itself, independent of the personal motives of the speaker.

It would not be ad hominem, for instance, to ban Rolling Stone references on rape accusations at colleges, regardless of the author. That bar is necessarily subjective, and could be abused, but a moment's glance at the trash on the internet shows that PF does an excellent job, though we might not agree with this or that choice.

The job is excellent when it applies to hard and soft sciences. Applied to political opinion...? Here in Current Events, A person can quote Donald Trump's wall plan and say, "I agree with this," and no mentor will step in and say,"Trump quotes not allowed. Trump is biased in favor of Trump. Please stick to peer reviewed sources." But quoting a journalistic source whose facts are as wildly inaccurate as Trumps facts about illegal immigrants and saying "I agree with this", would get deleted. The whole notion of trying to separate acceptable from unacceptable opinion sources strikes me as a misapplication of academic rigor to what is essentially an opinion forum.

o·pin·ion/əˈpinyən/
noun

1. a view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.

As it happens, from the reading I've done on Ezra Klein and Vox I find that he collects very intelligent and often interesting writers, and he leans left. Fine. I also think Klein is likely corrupt, not simply biased, due to his association with the secretive Journolist group some time ago that colluded to make opinion. Without more serious management involved, that taint flows to his authors.

"...that [is alleged to have] colluded to make opinion..." brackets mine.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Trump has some reported acts of kindness in his background.
http://www.ijreview.com/2015/11/461...donald-trump-than-just-his-celebrity-persona/

Bear in mind, though, it's not historically unusual for pretty unsavory characters to demonstrate a "caring" side, for demagogic purposes:

There are two completely different sides to the story of Pablo Escobar. Our government tells us that he was a ruthless, atrocious criminal that ruined and took the lives of countless number of innocent victims. On the other hand, by some, especially the working class of his country, he is seen as a very respectable human being who made irreplaceable contributions and gave back freely to the community genuinely out of his good will to better the lives of the poor and less fortunate.

https://gameofroles.wordpress.com/2011/12/14/pablo-escobar-a-hero-or-a-villain/

Rasputin used to spend several hours a day meeting with people who needed favors, and he dispensed them, using his political influence with the Czarina, like Santa Claus. A relative in jail? He'd get them out. No money for rent? He'd shove a wad of bills into their hands. Anything.

Saddam Hussein used to commandeer private homes to sleep in at night so his potential assassins could not locate him. He literally kicked people out of their homes on a moments notice. But, he put them up in the best, most expensive hotels, and would have new furniture and gifts delivered to them a couple days later.

Serial Killer, Ted Bundy used to volunteer at a suicide hot line.

Point being "good works," do not necessarily equal to Mother Teresa.

 

[jim hardy]

Bear in mind, though, it's not historically unusual f

Well i too could speculate that Hillary shot Vince Foster.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Well i too could speculate that Hillary shot Vince Foster.

You could, but I don't know what you mean by it. I'm just saying, good works don't necessarily imply sainthood. There are cases where they're associated with the opposite.

 

[jobyts]

If you have an actual reference to a topical scientific study, please demonstrate. Amanda Taub, the "Senior Sadness Correspondent" at the left leaning Vox is not the author of such a study.

Here's the shortened url to the original article by the original researcher, Matthew C. MacWilliams.
.
http://bit.ly/1KFzeC0

According to the article,

My survey, conducted under the auspices of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, uses a simple battery of four questions to identify authoritarians. These are the same questions that leading political scientists — including Marc Hetherington, Jonathon Weiler, and Karen Stenner — have employed since 1992 to measure individual disposition to authoritarianism.

 

[jim hardy]

Bear in mind, though, it's not historically unusual for pretty unsavory characters to demonstrate a "caring" side, for demagogic purposes:

To redirect subject from aberrant psychology back toward title of this thread:

Agreed. Dissimulation is not unprecedented.
Trump was speaking to taquiyya .when he advised circumspection regarding Muslim immigrants.
Ben Carson was more blunt about it , actually using the term.

All this indicates jihad’s importance in Islam—and thus importance to this case, since, as shall be seen, taqiyya is especially permissible in the context of jihad or struggle to empower Islam and/or Muslims over non-Muslims.

Glad to hear you agree with them.

 

[mheslep]

Here's the shortened url to the original article by the original researcher, Matthew C. MacWilliams...
http://bit.ly/1KFzeC0
...According to the article,

Thanks for the link. Still, this article is about a survey; the article itself is loaded with normative statements. The author sets out to correlate what he calls authoritarianism and Trump support:

...My survey, conducted under the auspices of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, uses a simple battery of four questions to identify authoritarians.

...four questions which the author curiously does not feel the need to include in this particular article about the survey.

Looking elsewhere, which I hoped to avoid, the same author produces a summary of the questions that define the authoritarian viewpoint as used in the article:

...These questions pertain to child-rearing: whether it is more important for the voter to have a child who is respectful or independent; obedient or self-reliant; well-behaved or considerate; and well-mannered or curious. Respondents who pick the first option in each of these questions are strongly authoritarian...

The author acknowledges the possibility of skepticism about the link to child rearing, and establishes another set of questions that purport to show, "Trump supporters kick the fundamental tenets of Madisonian democracy to the curb". What might those fundamentals be? Favor prosecuting those who don't agree with global warming (27% of Democrats)? Students at U's, favor speech codes (51% to 31%)? No, the author's fundamentals are questions about Mosque closures and suspension of Habeas Corpus. I have the idea that this author's cultural positioning would give the like of a Chavez or a Castro a glowing report, showing no authoritarian tendencies.

 

[zoobyshoe]

To redirect subject from aberrant psychology back toward title of this thread:

Agreed. Dissimulation is not unprecedented.
Trump was speaking to taquiyya .when he advised circumspection regarding Muslim immigrants.
Ben Carson was more blunt about it , actually using the term.

Glad to hear you agree with them.

I'm not aware our exchange ever became about the subject of aberrant psychology, and, I didn't raise the issue of dissimilation in regards to muslims. I raised it in regard to the advisability of judging Trump to be a compassionate person based on a short list of 'good works' he's done.

You quoted Hoffer:

Compassion is probably the only antitoxin of the soul. Where there is compassion even the most poisonous impulses remain relatively harmless.One would rather see the world run by men who set their hearts on toys but are accessible to pity, than by men animated by lofty ideals whose dedication makes them ruthless. In the chemistry of man's soul, almost all noble attributes — courage, honor, hope, faith, duty, loyalty, etc. — can be transmuted into ruthlessness. Compassion alone stands apart from the continuous traffic between good and evil proceeding within us.

And then you linked to a list of good things Trump has done as if these prove he is that essentially compassionate person whose most poisonous impulses will remain relatively harmless, as per Hoffer. In other words, you seem to think that some demonstrable good deeds are automatic proof someone is essentially a compassionate person. I replied with examples that show that is not always historically the case, and that therefore you can't use good deeds as a metric of someone's inner goodness.

You said, in reply, you could speculate Hilary Clinton shot someone, which was an off the wall response, and now you're mentioning muslims are allowed to dissimilate their being muslims, which is also a non-sequitur. Neither has anything in particular to do with judging Trump to be a compassionate person by virtue of some good deeds.

I get the feeling you think my argument against judging Trump that way was flip or somehow unfair so you're trying to counter that with flip, unfair responses. However,the fact is, my argument was sound: you can't judge a person's compassion that way. It's a flawed metric. And, I haven't even touched on the possibility of Hoffer's assessment of compassion being a prophylactic against ruthlessness might be totally off the mark.

 

[zoobyshoe]

The author acknowledges the possibility of skepticism about the link to child rearing, and establishes another set of questions that purport to show, "Trump supporters kick the fundamental tenets of Madisonian democracy to the curb". What might those fundamentals be? Favor prosecuting those who don't agree with global warming (27% of Democrats)?

Following your link, I see you are you are misrepresenting this by the way you phrase it here: "Favor prosecuting those who don't agree with global warming". The call for prosecution is for the prosecution of scientists who commit fraud by accepting money from special interests to dismiss or down play the dangers of global warming. It's not a call to prosecute people who actually don't agree with it.

Students at U's, favor speech codes (51% to 31%)?

There is no indication the author wouldn't consider this a susceptibility to authoritarian thinking. Whether he does or doesn't is an unknown to me at this point, but two of his colleagues write:

In the years following 9/11, surveys have revealed high levels of public support for policies related to the war on terror that, many argue, contravene long-standing American ideals. Extant research would suggest that such preferences result from the activation of authoritarianism. That is, the terrorist attacks caused those predisposed toward intolerance and aggression to become even more intolerant and aggressive. However, using data from two national surveys, we find that those who score high in authoritarianism do not become more hawkish or less supportive of civil liberties in response to perceived threat from terrorism; they tend to have such preferences even in the absence of threat. Instead, those who are less authoritarian adopt more restrictive and aggressive policy stands when they perceive threat from terrorism. In other words, many average Americans become susceptible to “authoritarian thinking” when they perceive a grave threat to their safety.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00514.x/abstract
So, some among those studying this believe even the "less authoritarian" can become authoritarian when they are sufficiently scared.
MacWilliams says:

While authoritarians can be found among self-identified Democrats and Independents, their slow but steady movement over time to the Republican Party may have created the conditions for a candidate with an authoritarian message like Trump’s to emerge.

All these authors are exploring a right-wing centered authoritarianism simply because that's how it's playing out in the U.S. at this point. There is no reason to believe they would exonerate Castro supporters of authoritarian tendencies and no reason to believe they're ignoring what authoritarian tendencies exist in "left leaners," in order to 'frame' Trump supporters.

 

[mheslep]

Following your link, I see you are you are misrepresenting this by the way you phrase it here: "Favor prosecuting those who don't agree with global warming". The call for prosecution is for the prosecution of scientists who commit fraud by accepting money from special interests to dismiss or down play the dangers of global warming. It's not a call to prosecute people who actually don't agree with it.

The exact quote from the summary article:

Just over one-in-four Democrats (27%), however, favor prosecuting those who don’t agree with global warming. Only 11% of Republicans and 12% of voters not affiliated with either major party agree.

All these authors are exploring a right-wing centered authoritarianism...

No, MacWilliams attempts to define authoritarianism, period, and then to detect it among a group. He does so by going beyond the literature on child-rearing based detection and inventing his own right-wing biased questions, under the label of violations of the "fundamental tenets of Madisonian democracy "

...because that's how it's playing out in the U.S. at this point...

So you say.

 

[zoobyshoe]

The exact quote from the summary article:

Pretty much a straw man, since I didn't claim you misquoted your source, I claimed you misrepresented what was actually happening, which was this:

WASHINGTON (February 25, 2015) – Senators Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) today sent letters to 100 fossil fuel companies, trade groups, and other organizations to determine whether they are funding scientific studies designed to confuse the public and avoid taking action to cut carbon pollution, and whether the funded scientists fail to disclose the sources of their funding in scientific publications or in testimony to legislators.
This investigation follows the revelations regarding one of the chief climate denial researchers, Wei-Hock “Willie” Soon, from documents released by Greenpeace showing that Soon received more than $1 million from ExxonMobil, Southern Company, and others to produce what he termed “deliverables” to push back on climate science or carbon-cutting policies in papers or Congressional testimony. Soon did not disclose this funding to peer-reviewed scientific journals that require such disclosure…

http://www.markey.senate.gov/news/p...imate-denial-organizations-on-science-funding
And, I got to that story by following links from your link.

No, MacWilliams attempts to define authoritarianism, period, and then to detect it among a group. He does so by going beyond the literature on child-rearing based detection and inventing his own right-wing biased questions, under the label of violations of the "fundamental tenets of Madisonian democracy ".

He never defines authoritarianism. In fact, I found that to be the major weakness of the article.

You claim I cannot lump him with the others because he's gone outside the the literature. But he's talking about two different tests, of two different things. The 'canonical' 4 child rearing questions are "to measure individual disposition to authoritarianism." That was, in fact, applied to Trump supporters, and Trump supporters score authoritarian. That established, they are, in a separate poll ("fundamental tenets of Madisonian democracy"), tested for "authoritarian behavior," that is, whether or not the alleged tendencies actually play out in reality. Metaphorically: he found the gene but then needs to examine the organism to see if it actually got expressed. You are mistaking him as substituting the second for the first. So, he stayed within the literature, after all. He tested them for authoritarian tendencies, and later for authoritarian behavior.

So you say.

So they say:
Here's a quote from a blog that quotes the 2009 book "Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics":

And although there is a strong connection between authoritarianism and conservatism (and thus Republicanism), as Hetherington and Weiler caution, authoritarianism is not bounded by party: Among 2008 Democratic primary voters there were significant splits on issues of race and immigration, smacking of authoritarian impulses, that played a role in support for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. “There is strong suggestive evidence that authoritarianism was a core reason for the voting behavior of nonblacks” in the Democratic primary, they conclude.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/authoritarianism-in-american-politics/

Assuming, tentatively, the blogger, [full disclosure]who is a friend of one of the authors[/full disclosure] is not mischaracterizing or misquoting, you can see these authors aren't claiming this is only a right-wing phenomenon, only that that is where it's the current American expression of it is focused.

 

[mheslep]

Pretty much a straw man, since I didn't claim you misquoted your source, I claimed you misrepresented what was actually happening, ...

Zs, above I've referenced opinion surveys. Both Mac Williamson on authoritarianism and Rasmussen surveys. You know this. I accurately paraphrased the Rassmusen survey response, which clearly includes reference to prosecution. I did not say "what was actually happening", as if such a vague notion could be accurately defined. I'm tired of chasing around vague pronouns.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Zs, above I've referenced opinion surveys. Both Mac Williamson on authoritarianism and Rasmussen surveys. You know this. I accurately paraphrased the Rassmusen survey response, which clearly includes reference to prosecution. I did not say "what was actually happening", as if such a vague notion could be accurately defined. I'm tired of chasing around vague pronouns.

2* Should the government investigate and prosecute scientists and others including major corporations who question global warming?

What do the poll results even mean unless we know whether the students understood the investigation was for fraud("what's actually happening") and not for the belief? If the majority of the 27% understood by then current news stories it was for fraud, what's your issue? Fraud is fraud. If all 27% thought it was for the belief, what's your issue? Because, there's no indication MacWilliams et al would not find that latter case to be authoritarian behavior, and there is some clear indication they would.

I take it you understood what I pointed out about you having conflated two different tests.

 

[DiracPool]

It's Trump update time again, or dare I say, Trumpdate? going into this recent SuperTuesday...

So initially, I was like everyone else who thought the whole Trump thing was a joke and a publicity stunt. Then I became a little worried when he kept winning that he may actually become the republican nominee. Then I started waxing a little Stockholm syndrome and started to warm up to Trump like Jim Hardy, thinking I may even actually vote for him. After all, I did like all the rhetoric about how we were getting "killed" in trade deals with China and everyone else, how everyone was "walking all over us" in terms of manipulating currency, and how we don't enforce even our own laws on immigration, and so on.

However, in the past week, I got snapped out of my Manchurian candidate trance and realized that Trump is not the guy. There's no way he's going to win the presidency. Why? Because he doesn't want to win the presidency. It's back to stage one, this is all just a publicity stunt. Trump is not seriously running for president. He wouldn't act in the way he is doing if he seriously was. For instance, he already mobilized the white supremacists, doomsday preppers, and closet politically incorrect crowd a long time ago. He's already got them wrapped up, so why is he still pushing the envelope even further? This is stupid. It's turning off a lot of people to see these riots at the rallies and him not taking responsibility for it. If he were serious about being president he'd tone it down, but he isn't. He's playing the same, stupid defiant pose even when it is now hurting him. It may be energizing a very small extreme base, but it's turning off and scaring a much larger populace that doesn't want to see a repeat of a Rodney King race riot or even larger race war. It turned me off permanently to Trump and, as I said, I was really on the fence there for a second.

After watching a lot of Trump rallies over the past month and dozens of interviews, I've come to a conclusion about what this madness is all about. First of all, we can state unequivocally that the chaos that exists right now in the republican race and the violent unrest is not so much Trumps fault as it is the media's fault. In fact, it is almost entirely the media's fault. If they reported on the substantive issues that candidates had to offer instead of playing into the sensationalism, Trump would have been exposed as being not qualified to run for office a long time ago. Again, closer scrutiny of his interviews reveals that he equivocates on almost every issue. It's the same formula every time. This is a game for him, a weird fetish. What he likes to do is say something outrageous and then try to talk his way out of it in news interviews. I see this time and time again. He gets hammered by the interviewers on CNN, MSNBC, and FOX. I mean they hammer him, and he sticks around for the punishment. Why? Is it because he's so fair and balanced? No. It's because it's a game to him. He likes it. I sit there watching this and wonder why he doesn't just hang up the phone and exit the interview. But this isn't what it's about.

So, again, it's the same format every time. Getting accused of being a Nazi doesn't slow him down and give him pause, it presents to him a greater challenge to see if he can talk his way out of this one, too. This is the chronic "Art of deal" consciousness that is built into Trump. It's not about what's best for the country, it's all about whether or not Trump can out negotiate the interviewer. It's always the same thing, he gets presented with evidence that he's done something unethical, and then he starts going into generalizations and diversionary measures such as "these were bad people," "what people are angry about is the lack of jobs" (even though not one banner anywhere says anyone is protesting against a lack of jobs), the military is "going to hell," the economy "is a disaster." etc. In Trump's world, everything is either a disaster or is going to hell. That tells us a lot. But, hey, there's a "lot of love" at the rallies, and he gets "tremendous support" from here and there and everywhere. This is BS, he doesn't want to be president. That's the only explanation for why he's driving his (presidential) race car even faster into a brick wall recently. He wants to lose and then sit on his heels and blame everyone for something or another and use the publicity to start another reality TV show. Just my opinion, but decide for yourself:





I think this upcoming SuperTuesday will be very telling. My prediction is that Trump's time is up and he's not going to do so well after these riots. We'll see. I think we'll get a good sense as to how deep the pent-up politically correct frustration is in this country after this Tuesday. This will be tell tale. I think it's not going to be good for Trump, but I may be proven wrong. I'm actually hoping he wins Florida and Ohio because I think it will be a much more interesting political season going into the summer. But in the end we'll be OK because Trump vs Hillary is going to be a landslide for Hillary, so no worries.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

My prediction is that Trump's time is up and he's not going to do so well after these riots.

His GOP nomination base might not mind, but his general election base will.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Trump is not seriously running for president. He wouldn't act in the way he is doing if he seriously was.

I think his behavior is pretty well explained here:
http://www.mcafee.cc/Bin/sb.html

 

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-suffers-two-primary-201804568.html

On Saturday, Rubio – who is currently in third place in the GOP race – was declared the winner of the Washington D.C. caucus, nabbing the district's 10 delegates all for himself. Meanwhile, Cruz won nine on Wyoming's 11 delegates, with Trump and Rubio each earning one delegate each. The state's 14 other delegates will be elected at the April 16 state convention.

While Trump is still clearly the frontrunner with 460 delegates, Cruz is quickly catching up with a total of 369 delegates. Rubio, meanwhile, follows with 163 while John Kasich has nabbed 63. The Republican candidates need 1,237 total delegates to win the nomination.

Cruz may catch up. Rubio is far behind and Kasich even further. Apparently Romney is campaigning with Kasich in Ohio, and meanwhile Kasich's campaign is asking Rubio's team to withdraw a lawsuit challenging some signatures in Pennsylvania.

In the wake of some violence at Trump rallies, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich have backed away from any support for Trump down the road.

 

[Dembadon]

For instance, he already mobilized the white supremacists, doomsday preppers, and closet politically incorrect crowd a long time ago. He's already got them wrapped up, so why is he still pushing the envelope even further?

I believe it's because he has no idea what he's talking about. Rubio did well in exposing his worthless answer last debate regarding whether diplomatic negotiations with Cuba should be continued¹. Trump showed, yet again, his inability to provide substantive answers to issues that don't hand him an opportunity to sensationalize on a silver platter. Why is he continuing? It's not necessarily because it's a game to him, he might actually be giving it his best, but his political vocabulary and knowledge is so limited that all he's left with is what we've been seeing.

Compare the responses of Rubio and Trump to the Cuban negotiations I mentioned above²:

All that stuff has to be agreed to now. We don't want to get sued after the deal is made. So I don't agree with President Obama, I do agree something should be -- should take place. After 50 years, it's enough time, folks. But we have to make a good deal and we have to get rid of all the litigation that's going to happen.

This was just a little story but it was a big story to me because I said oh, here we go, we make a deal, then get sued for a tremendous amount of money for reparations. So I want to do something, but it's got to be done intelligently. We have to make good deal.

BASH: Senator Rubio, I know you want to get in. But just to be clear, Mr. Trump, are you saying that if you were president, you would continue the diplomatic relations or would you reverse them?

TRUMP: I would want to make a good deal, I would want to make a strong, solid, good deal because right now, everything is in Cuba's favor. Right now, everything, every single aspect of this deal is in Cuba's favor. It the same way as the Iran deal.

We never walked -- we never -- all we do is keep giving. We give and give and give.

BASH: But Mr. Trump, just to be clear, there is an embassy that you would have to decide whether it would be open or whether you would close it. Which would it be? In Havana.

TRUMP: I would probably have the embassy closed until such time as a really good deal was made and struck by the United States.

emphasis mine

I cannot believe that is an acceptable response, for the people supporting him, for someone running for the POTUS. This is the same language we've seen from him over and over again since the primaries began. That entire "answer" in the quote above was a waste of everyone's time.

Here's Rubio's response:

RUBIO: All right, first of all, the embassy is the former consulate. It's the same building. So it could just go back to being called a consulate. We don't have to close it that way. Second of all, I don't know where Cuba is going to sue (sic), but if they sue us in a court in Miami, they're going to lose.

(LAUGHTER AND APPLAUSE)

Third, on the issue of a good deal, I know what the good deal. I'll tell you what the good deal now, it's already codified. Here's a good deal -- Cuba has free elections, Cuba stops putting people in jail for speaking out, Cuba has freedom of the press, Cuba kicks out the Russians from Lourdes (ph) and kicks out the Chinese listening station in Berupal (ph) Cuba stops helping North Korea evade U.N. sanctions, Cuba takes all of those fugitives of America justice, including that cop killer from New Jersey, and send her back to the United States and to jail where she belongs. And you know what? Then we can have a relationship with Cuba. That's a good deal.

Whether or not you agree with his solution, at least he came out and said something worth listening to. It's really depressing that a legitimate candidate like Rubio is so far behind this attention-starved manchild.

¹ http://www.vox.com/2016/3/10/11200034/donald-trump-marco-rubio-cuba
² http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/10/politics/republican-debate-transcript-full-text/index.html (there are quite a few typos, best to watch the video in the vox.com link)

 

[DiracPool]

I cannot believe that is an acceptable response, for the people supporting him, for someone running for the POTUS. This is the same language we've seen from him over and over again since the primaries began. That entire "answer" in the quote above was a waste of everyone's time.

Yeah, I agree with you, it's pretty much just a bunch of blustering nonsense, and it looks even worse in type without his Trump gestures to distract you.

Why is he continuing? It's not necessarily because it's a game to him, he might actually be giving it his best

I disagree with this. I don't think Trump is so stupid as to think that not "disavowing" violence at his rallies is going to help his campaign. This just seems absurd to me. I mean, if he were clever, he'd do something to incite a riot to get the publicity but then back off and disavow it. You know, the old bait and switch good cop bad cop thing. Even the dumbest politicians know that playbook. I think there's something else going on here.

but his political vocabulary and knowledge is so limited that all he's left with is what we've been seeing.

I think you're right here, but that doesn't worry me too much. I can accept that he may not be politically savvy either in local or international politics and even in sandbagging his efforts to learn them until he's fairly confident he has a shot at the white house. I can accept that. What I can't accept is that he doesn't seem to be frank with the American people on this fact. All he has to do is say is that he's focused on the campaign now but he's assembled a team that is putting together the "big political picture" for him and he will get more specific on policy as the race progresses. But he doesn't do this. He just blusters and vagues his way through everything.

Whether or not you agree with his solution, at least he came out and said something worth listening to. It's really depressing that a legitimate candidate like Rubio is so far behind this attention-starved manchild.

Again, I agree with you here. I like Rubio, but he suffers from a freshman approach to this political race. I like the content of what he says very much (post the hands and spray on tan incidents). Most of his presentations, though, seem scarred by a "scripted" quality to them. I don't know, it's just a feeling. They're just too flawlessly and robotically presented to make them feel like it's coming from some intuitive sense of executive brilliance. Contrast this with Trump. I don't think for a second that his presentations are scripted at all (or especially that they're coming from some intuitive sense of executive brilliance). I'm just saying that I think Rubio will be a force to be reckoned with once he get's a little older and has paid some more dues. But not this election. He's getting a good education this time around, though.

And I think he's getting better. I think he's learning. For instance, I just watched this interview with him today and was very impressed with his characterization of the Trump phenomenon, which may in part have motivated my above post #289. It didn't seem scripted, it felt natural and well considered:

 

[jim hardy]

I think his behavior is pretty well explained here:
http://www.mcafee.cc/Bin/sb.html

Politics makes strange bedfellows

ELECTION 2016
Glenn Beck slams Trump as 'psychopath'

http://www.wnd.com/2016/02/glenn-beck-slams-trump-as-psychopath/

No point, just found it amusing .

 

[mheslep]

... I like Rubio, but he suffers from a freshman approach to this political race.

I've heard this before. Yet Trump has never been elected dog catcher. At debates, he's clearly the most ill-equipped to do more than bluster. Rubio has beaten some tough competition, incumbents, to get his seat. And he's supposed to be the rookie? Trump can't go two sentences without a cliche on "deals" or "b'lieve me", and Rubio is a robot?

 

[Tobias Funke]

For instance, he already mobilized the white supremacists, doomsday preppers, and closet politically incorrect crowd a long time ago. He's already got them wrapped up, so why is he still pushing the envelope even further?

And there are enough of them to explain his popularity, so I don't see what the problem is (from his perspective). But I wish more people would just be willing to say that he's mobilized the Republicans, because what else can explain his success? I mentioned it a few months ago and my post was deleted! Sure, most of his peers don't like him, but he's saying just what Joe Schmoe (Joe the Plumber?) Republican wants to hear.

But in the end we'll be OK because Trump vs Hillary is going to be a landslide for Hillary, so no worries.

I wish I could be as confident as you, but I'm not so sure about that. Let's hope so at least.

 

[Dembadon]

But I wish more people would just be willing to say that he's mobilized the Republicans, because what else can explain his success? I mentioned it a few months ago and my post was deleted!

I can see why. It's a ridiculous statement.

 

[Tobias Funke]

I can see why. It's a ridiculous statement.

I'd love to hear why. He's looking like the Republican candidate for president, yet he hasn't mobilized the Republicans? Maybe we have different definitions of "mobilize," but he's done something. Do you think it's ridiculous to say that he's saying things that Republicans want to hear, or do I have to qualify it as "enough Republicans to make him a serious contender for president?"

 

[zoobyshoe]

@DiracPool: a lot of your post #289 boils down to you saying "I can't understand how a serious candidate would do X. Trump did X. Therefore Trump is not serious."

Consider, though:
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity

 

[mheslep]

And there are enough of them to explain his popularity, so I don't see what the problem is (from his perspective). But I wish more people would just be willing to say that he's mobilized the Republicans, because what else can explain his success? I mentioned it a few months ago and my post was deleted! Sure, most of his peers don't like him, but he's saying just what Joe Schmoe (Joe the Plumber?) Republican wants to hear.

Trump has been averaging around a third of the vote, with 450 out of some 1050 total delegates. If not for some winner-take-all states he'd have fewer still. If Trump fails to win either Ohio or Florida it becomes unlikely he will have the the required 50% going to the convention. So how do you arrive at the conclusion that Trump mobilizes *the* Republicans, versus a particular minority?