Calculating Poisson Probability for Car Rental Income

  • Thread starter Thread starter thereddevils
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Poisson
AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on calculating the expected daily income for a car rental shop with four cars and an average demand of four. The initial calculation of expected income using Poisson probabilities was incorrect due to stopping at P(X=4) instead of considering P(X>=4), leading to incomplete probability distribution. The correct expected income should reflect the average demand, suggesting that the income is simply 4 cars rented at $50 each, totaling $200. Additionally, the shop must evaluate whether to purchase an extra car, weighing the additional daily cost of $20 against potential increased income. Proper understanding of Poisson distribution is crucial for accurate calculations in this scenario.
thereddevils
Messages
436
Reaction score
0

Homework Statement



A car rental shop has four cars to be rented out on a daily basis at $ 50 per car. The average daily demand for cars is four.

(1) Calculate the expected daily income received from the rentals

(2) If the shop wishes to have one more car, the additional cost incurred is $ 20 per day DEtermine whether the shop should buy another car for rental.

Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



(1) X-p(4)

P(X=0)=0.0183
P(X=1)=0.07326
P(X=2)=0.1465
P(X=3)=0.195
P(X=4)=0.195

The expected number of cars rented out is about 1.73 so the expected income is

1.73 x $50= $ 86.6

But my answer is wrong.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Why do you stop calculating probabilities at 4... they hardly add up to the total of 1, so you are using an incomplete distribution here.

I'm not really into Poisson distributions, but if the average is 4, isn't the answer simply 4 x $50 as it would with a binomial distribution?
 
CompuChip said:
Why do you stop calculating probabilities at 4... they hardly add up to the total of 1, so you are using an incomplete distribution here.

I'm not really into Poisson distributions, but if the average is 4, isn't the answer simply 4 x $50 as it would with a binomial distribution?

thanks Compuchip, i figured that out. I calculated P(X=4) instead of P(X>=4), that's why the probabilities do not add up to 1.
 
Back
Top