MHB Calculating Probability of Winning a Point on Serve in Tennis

[JamesBwoii]

Hi, I'm trying to make a tennis betting model but I'm struggling to get my head around how to calculate the probability of a player to win a point when serving. So:

How can I calculate the probability, p, of a player winning a point when serving given:

The percentage of first serves that the player gets in. (I'm not sure this is relevant/needed).

The percentage of first serve points won.

The percentage of second serve points won.

For example say a player gets 57.9% of first serves in, wins 70.4% of first serve points and 49.5% of second serve points how would I calculate p.

Thanks :D

 

[JamesBwoii]

I think I've got it.

Is it:

Percentage of first serve in * percentage of first serve won + (1-percentage of first serve in) * percentage of second serve won.This seems about right, if you know about tennis it gives the probability of winning a service point of:

Djokovic - 69%
Isner - 73%
Ferrer - 63%